Coronavirus Thread

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

You lot can take the piss, but @Line-Xhas been absolutely invaluable throughout this whole thing trying to inform people of the facts. Most of the rest of us gave up ages ago and are relying on Darwins theory to do it's stuff instead 

That person has forgotten more about science in general and Covid in particular than many on here simply know.

Evidently some folks don't like tall poppies.

[pSinatra]

 

[Legend_in_blue]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-cases-two-hundred-thousand-afterjuly-19-neil-ferguson-b944295.html

 

This guy needs to crawl back under his stone.

 

And never reappear.

[Super_horns]

5 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-cases-two-hundred-thousand-afterjuly-19-neil-ferguson-b944295.html

 

This guy needs to crawl back under his stone.

 

And never reappear.

Well if 200 people a day start dying then something has gone badly wrong.

[Legend_in_blue]

8 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Well if 200 people a day start dying then something has gone badly wrong.

He induces fear with his numbers which are substantially overinflated and yet he's given the platform on which to air his views time and time again.  And without anyone questioning his practice.

 

He and his fear inducing behavioural scientist chums on Sage need to reverse engineer their fear inducing rhetoric which has been shoved in people's faces for the past 18 months.  Can't see that happening though.  They'll go running or just disappear.

 

The mental health fallout following all this will be massive.

Edited 6 July 2021 by Legend_in_blue

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

He induces fear with his numbers which are substantially overinflated and yet he's given the platform on which to air his views time and time again.  And without anyone questioning his practice.

 

He and his fear inducing behavioural scientist chums on Sage need to reverse engineer their fear inducing rhetoric which has been shoved in people's faces for the past 18 months.  Can't see that happening though.  They'll go running or just disappear.

 

The mental health fallout following all this will be massive.

That's because the basic equation is #infected = #infected x #susceptable, so if you don't document how many have recovered and have some sort of imunity and are therefore no longer susceptable the numbers will always be over inflated. Have a look at all these websites that show covid figures, and the UK never has recovered.

[Legend_in_blue]

Just now, yorkie1999 said:

That's because the basic equation is #infected = #infected x #susceptable, so if you don't document how many have recovered and have some sort of imunity and are therefore no longer susceptable the numbers will always be over inflated. Have a look at all these websites that show covid figures, and the UK never has recovered.

 

Regardless of how the figure is reached, in graphical terms this is what Ferguson is suggesting "could" happen...

 

 

 

It's sheer lunacy.  

[Parafox]

3 hours ago, pSinatra said:

 

Freddie Mercury isn't dead, he's become a swimming instructor. 

[Stivo]

34 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

That's because the basic equation is #infected = #infected x #susceptable, so if you don't document how many have recovered and have some sort of imunity and are therefore no longer susceptable the numbers will always be over inflated. Have a look at all these websites that show covid figures, and the UK never has recovered.

they test for it…

 

if you look in the flu an covid surveillance reports you can find a breakdown of preinfections by area and by age group. It’s about page 66

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

 

 

The models all use it.

 

now if you want to model it, the same report gives you vaccine rate per age cohort.

 

I would treat preinfection the same as one shot of vaccine and one shot of vaccine plus preinfection as same as two shots.

 

PHE suggest that two doses prevent spreading by 90% if I recall correctly - it gets too depressing if you use anything else.  
 

i think you will conclude that we are 10% short of herd immunity.

 

 

Edited 6 July 2021 by Stivo

[Parafox]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

 

The mental health fallout following all this will be massive.

Already happening:

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/02/04/impact-coronavirus-mental-health-and-relationships

[Legend_in_blue]

 

Bang on the money.  

[SpacedX]

2 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-cases-two-hundred-thousand-afterjuly-19-neil-ferguson-b944295.html

 

This guy needs to crawl back under his stone.

 

And never reappear.

Ferguson again? Seriously, this fixation is beyond weird now. 

 

???? He's actually been all over the press today currently reassuring the public that although the case rate may continue to increase, that he expects death rates and hospitalisations to remain low and fully supports the government's decision to remove all restrictions. 

 

Crawl back under his stone? I'll ask again; and what of Toby Young's claims in the media that catching a cold could protect you from coronavirus? Ivor Cummins' proclamation that the real reason that daily deaths declined in the spring of 2020 was that the UK was reaching herd immunity meaning that the virus was running out of people to infect? - which you subsequently parroted on here. Or, Mike Yeadon's similarly ludicrous and reckless statement last December that London was approaching herd immunity? Which again, you felt the need to plaster all over this thread in the absence of any supporting evidence whatsoever. 

 

I find it most bizarre that you are in complete denial of these frankly absurd individuals and their personal opportunistic agendas whenever I broach it with you. 

[martyn]

22 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Ferguson again? Seriously, this fixation is beyond weird now. 

 

???? He's actually been all over the press today currently reassuring the public that although the case rate may continue to increase, that he expects death rates and hospitalisations to remain low and fully supports the government's decision to remove all restrictions. 

 

Crawl back under his stone? I'll ask again; and what of Toby Young's claims in the media that catching a cold could protect you from coronavirus? Ivor Cummins' proclamation that the real reason that daily deaths declined in the spring of 2020 was that the UK was reaching herd immunity meaning that the virus was running out of people to infect? - which you subsequently parroted on here. Or, Mike Yeadon's similarly ludicrous and reckless statement last December that London was approaching herd immunity? Which again, you felt the need to plaster all over this thread in the absence of any supporting evidence whatsoever. 

 

I find it most bizarre that you are in complete denial of these frankly absurd individuals and their personal opportunistic agendas whenever I broach it with you. 

I noted the same optimism from Ferguson in a post earlier today and wondered whether those who'd pilloried him throughout this pandemic would therefore continue to suggest we take the opposing position to him.

 

Think it went over the poster you're replying to's head.

[SpacedX]

5 minutes ago, martyn said:

Think it went over the poster you're replying to's head.

It's simply some utterly bizarre deeper agenda or issue that's increasingly surfaced on this thread throughout the last sixteen months. 

 

What I find the most bewildering is that 'Legend' is actually a really bright bloke, a great contributor to this forum and ostensibly a decent guy. Completely the opposite of the mindless morons that consume and regurgitate the irresponsible reactionary populist junk peddled by the likes of Young, Cummins and Yeadon. 

 

 

[Buce]

 

I have a question: Is it possible to have a natural immunity to Covid? @z-layrex @Bryn

 

I ask because Mrs Buce has been exposed to it on numerous occasions at work (she works in elderly care) but has never tested positive.

[Guest Col city fan]

I see the tories are doing the wrong thing again.

Heralding the 19th as ‘Freedom day’ is going to send out completely the wrong message to everyone who is going to think and act like the pandemic is completely over.

It isn’t. We are in the height of summer and the flu season is just around the corner. 
Personally I’d have played this very low key, relaxed the restrictions but continued with the note of caution that all is not great yet.

The fookin errors that have made during this pandemic have been very bizarre.

[Guest Col city fan]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I have a question: Is it possible to have a natural immunity to Covid? @z-layrex @Bryn

 

I ask because Mrs Buce has been exposed to it on numerous occasions at work (she works in elderly care) but has never tested positive.

It’s more likely she’s had it and just didn’t know. Probably early doors when staff weren’t being tested.

[Buce]

Just now, Col city fan said:

It’s more likely she’s had it and just didn’t know. Probably early doors when staff weren’t being tested.

 

No, she's had antibody testing because she wanted to donate plasma.

[Legend_in_blue]

12 minutes ago, Line-X said:

It's simply some utterly bizarre deeper agenda or issue that's increasingly surfaced on this thread throughout the last sixteen months. 

 

What I find the most bewildering is that 'Legend' is actually a really bright bloke, a great contributor to this forum and ostensibly a decent guy. Completely the opposite of the mindless morons that consume and regurgitate the irresponsible reactionary populist junk peddled by the likes of Young, Cummins and Yeadon. 

 

 

 

At what point will you add Ferguson to your list of "frankly absurd individuals"?

 

The guy has been wrong time and time again.  In the message he's put out today he may well be insinuating that he's in favour of lifting restrictions but this is secondary to the 200k figure which carries the weight.

 

Thanks for the compliments btw.  

 

 

[Guest Col city fan]

Just now, Buce said:

 

No, she's had antibody testing because she wanted to donate plasma.

The anti body tests haven’t been completely reliable I don’t think?

If not, I’d say she’s just been lucky or very careful possibly?

[Buce]

Just now, Col city fan said:

The anti body tests haven’t been completely reliable I don’t think?

If not, I’d say she’s just been lucky or very careful possibly?

 

She wears full PPE since it's been available but that was after two outbreaks, during which time she was giving end of life care to people with Covid.

 

All of her colleagues have had it.

[SpacedX]

1 minute ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

At what point will you add Ferguson to your list of "frankly absurd individuals"?

 

The guy has been wrong time and time again.  In the message he's put out today he may well be insinuating that he's in favour of lifting restrictions but this is secondary to the 200k figure which carries the weight.

 

Thanks for the compliments btw.  

 

 

He's also been proved right about many things. The press is quick to leap on and add significance to the 200K figure which he regards as the "bleakest scenario". The message that he actually is eager to convey is that the ratio between cases and deaths has been reduced by around eight to ten fold compared to the second wave and that he is quietly optimistic about the removal of restrictions on July 19th and in support of the decision. 

 

I'll willingly discuss Neil Ferguson with you anytime, but shall we move on to Young, Cummins and Yeadon for now and the claims that you posted on this thread? Every time that I broach it, you deflect. 

[Guest Col city fan]

59 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

She wears full PPE since it's been available but that was after two outbreaks, during which time she was giving end of life care to people with Covid.

 

All of her colleagues have had it.

Obviously immunity is established due to the build up of antibodies to the pathogen. As far as I know people aren’t born ‘immune’ to pathogens, hence kids having to have childhood immunisations. 
To build up antibodies, by definition, people have either had to be subjected to a vaccine or to the disease itself.

If your wife’s colleagues have all had it, it sounds like your wife has been very lucky mate 

Edited 6 July 2021 by Col city fan

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Col city fan said:

The anti body tests haven’t been completely reliable I don’t think?

If not, I’d say she’s just been lucky or very careful possibly?

 

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

She wears full PPE since it's been available but that was after two outbreaks, during which time she was giving end of life care to people with Covid.

 

All of her colleagues have had it.

Surely some people are immune to the virus …..for whatever genetic reasons …..of course it could be that she had it with a low viral load or was asymptomatic.  By the time she had an antibody test, they had reduced to a level where they didn’t show. My wife had it last spring when we all had it (untested of course) - then she had an antibody test in October and that showed none present.   Then she caught it again at new year. 

[WigstonWanderer]

5 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-cases-two-hundred-thousand-afterjuly-19-neil-ferguson-b944295.html

 

This guy needs to crawl back under his stone.

 

And never reappear.

If you actually read the article I don’t think he’s saying anything controversial. Cases are likely to rise and I’m sure he’s in a better position to speculate on numbers than you are. You still haven’t acknowledged your mistake last time you took the piss out of some chart showing cases rise to about 20k per day by 21st June (from memory), and the figure did actually hit that figure but just a couple of days late.

 

Obviously the hope is that the number of ensuring deaths this time will be much lower now that most are vaccinated and hospital treatments for the sick have improved, and this is the thrust of his comment.

 

Edit: 15k per day by 21st June, not 20k.

Edited 6 July 2021 by WigstonWanderer