Coronavirus Thread

[Guest Bert Fill]

5 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

If we have another lockdown in Autumn, then it means the vaccine doesn't work and there will never be an end.

Or:

If we have another lockdown in Autumn, then it means getting rid of all restrictions in July was a pretty bloody stupid idea.

[Guest Bert Fill]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Interesting how this so called "freedom day" conveniently dovetails into parliamentary recess on 22nd July.

Pure coincidence.

[leicsmac]

Lots of folks here asking what happens if the vaccines aren't effective?

 

I fear to answer to that is simple but rather terrifying: either there is a drastic societal shift across the world emphasising vastly increased healthcare and triage provision...or the virus wins.

[yorkie1999]

21 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

What is your suggestion? Lock down for 10 years?

No, forget the idea of evidence based criteria to make a desicion because it's the evidence needs to show opposite to what was being suggested.

[dsr-burnley]

1 minute ago, Bert Fill said:

Or:

If we have another lockdown in Autumn, then it means getting rid of all restrictions in July was a pretty bloody stupid idea.

At what point does the systematic failure to educate our children start to have a worse effect on life expectancy than this virus?  They're already saying that they will tell children what the questions are in advance of next year's exams because they won't have time to teach them everything on the syllabus.  Sooner or later, shielding will have to become a personal option on an individual basis and we will have to make the best of things.  

[HighPeakFox]

1 hour ago, foxile5 said:

Certainly the refusal to close borders at the beginning of the first wave was baffling and definitely cost lives and money. 

In the words of the great Peter Ustinov, if you want to do a thing badly, you have to try  harder...

[Guest Bert Fill]

9 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

At what point does the systematic failure to educate our children start to have a worse effect on life expectancy than this virus?  They're already saying that they will tell children what the questions are in advance of next year's exams because they won't have time to teach them everything on the syllabus.  Sooner or later, shielding will have to become a personal option on an individual basis and we will have to make the best of things.  

Maybe getting control of the virus with vaccinations and a range of restrictions would allow schools to get back to normal sooner than letting the virus run rampant and creating the ideal conditions for variants to develop will do.

[dsr-burnley]

6 minutes ago, Bert Fill said:

Maybe getting control of the virus with vaccinations and a range of restrictions would allow schools to get back to normal sooner than letting the virus run rampant and creating the ideal conditions for variants to develop will do.

You can't control the virus in schools unless you vaccinate all the children.  Is that what you want?

[HighPeakFox]

12 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

You can't control the virus in schools unless you vaccinate all the children.  Is that what you want?

You seem to have an objection to vaccination - what is at the root of that concern?

[filbertway]

4 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

You seem to have an objection to vaccination - what is at the root of that concern?

I believe the reasoning is that it appears that vaccinating children carries more risk to the children than them catching it naturally.

[WigstonWanderer]

6 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

If we have another lockdown in Autumn, then it means the vaccine doesn't work and there will never be an end.  The only possibilities will be either to lockdown forever, and accept hundreds of thousands of deaths from other causes (mainly due to lack of funding for the NHS as the economy tanks) to save tens of thousands of coronavirus deaths; or else we let it ride and take our chances.

 

What is slightly worrying is that the idea of locking down to save hundreds of lives seems to be on the table.

It isn’t as black and white as that though is it? No vaccine is 100% effective, that was always known from the start. What is extraordinary is that the current generation of vaccines are as effective as they appear to be.

 

As for the unvaccinated, they will eventually be exposed to the virus (I suspect that this will happen sooner rather than later), so will either pass away or more likely gain natural immunity to whatever extent that is possible.

Edited 16 July 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[Buce]

 

 

England’s Covid unlocking is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists

International experts say ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop

 

Boris Johnson’s plan to lift virtually all of England’s pandemic restrictions on Monday is a threat to the world and provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, international experts say.

Britain’s position as a global transport hub would mean any new variant here would rapidly spread around the world, scientists and physicians warned at an emergency summit. They also expressed grave concerns about Downing Street’s plans.

Government advisers in New Zealand, Israel and Italy were among those who sounded alarm bells about the policy, while more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet journal warning the strategy could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.

An adviser to New Zealand’s government told the summit he and his colleagues were astounded at the approach being taken in England.

“In New Zealand we have always looked to the UK for leadership when it comes to scientific expertise, which is why it’s so remarkable that it is not following even basic public health principles,” said Michael Baker, a professor of public health at the University of Otago and a member of the New Zealand ministry of health’s Covid-19 technical advisory group.

 

Also participating was Prof José Martin-Moreno of the University of Valencia, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), who said: “We cannot understand why this is happening in spite of the scientific knowledge that you have.”

Others warned the British government’s approach would be imitated, for political expediency, by authorities elsewhere.

“What I fear is that that the some of the worst impulses in many of our states will follow the UK example,” said Dr William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School researcher and a pioneering Aids researcher who chairs Access Health International, a New York-based thinktank.

“I am extremely dismayed to see the very rapid rate of increasing infections in a population that is vaccinated pretty much like we are.”

Prof Christina Pagel, the director of University College London’s clinical operational research unit, told the meeting: “Because of our position as a global travel hub, any variant that becomes dominant in the UK will likely spread to the rest of the globe. The UK policy doesn’t just affect us. It affects everybody and everybody has a stake in what we do.”

The letter to the Lancet said: “We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”

 

 

 “The world is watching the current avoidable crisis unfold in the UK,” said Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, who is taking part in Friday’s summit.

She added on Twitter: “Let’s be under no illusions – we are in a country where our government is taking steps to maximally expose our young to a virus that causes chronic illness in many. Our govt is ending all protections for our children including isolation of contacts of cases in schools & bubbles.”

The summit, All the Citizens, was being broadcast live on YouTube at noon UK time.

The concerns expressed in other countries comes after Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, warned on Thursday that the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 could reach “quite scary” levels within weeks, as cases soared caused by the more contagious Delta variant and the lifting of lockdown restrictions.

Whitty said in a webinar late on Thursday, hosted by the Science Museum, that hospital admissions were doubling about every three weeks, and that the current low numbers of Covid admissions could rise to serious levels in the next couple of months.

New coronavirus infections in the UK are at a six-month high, according to government figures, and the number of people in hospital and dying with Covid are at their highest level since March. Thursday’s data showed 3,786 people in hospital with Covid and another 63 virus-related deaths.

Downing Street, which has defended the lifting of all remaining legal restrictions on social gatherings in England on 19 July, is hoping the rapid rollout of vaccines will keep a lid on the number of people becoming seriously ill.

[Guest Bert Fill]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

You can't control the virus in schools unless you vaccinate all the children.  Is that what you want?

Is that not what you want?

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Seems to be we've developed a bunch of half arsed vaccines that maybe work just a little bit for most people but not much for others when the best thing to have done imo is shut the country off from the rest of the world when all this started, ala Australasia, and have the patience for a proper and effective vaccine to be developed. Obviously it's not perfect but there are plenty of people screaming from both sides of the argument pretty vociferously. We surely have to get to a point where we just open up and get on with it, we can't stay locked down indefinitely and if the vaccines haven't had the desired effect then what is the next step in all this? It's just getting beyond frustrating now. 

Sorry ????  Am I missing something ref the vaccines ??

 

by the way, when you fully shut off the country from the rest of the world, how are you going to get all the stuff you need to live on from Europe which comes in by truck ?  
 

it’s not feasible 

[yorkie1999]

In one of our offices there are 5 lads in their 20's, 2 had symptoms so they had to take pcr tests, 2 were positive, the other 3 were negative and have been everyday since as they are required to show a negative lateral flow test to get in. The 2 didn't get vaccinated but the other 3 have been vaccinated. Is this just coincidence?

Another odd thing, couple i know has a place in spain but they needed a purchased negative pcr test to travel there, so they got them,  went to register them online and one had already been registered in spain.

[Corky]

Not convinced Monday is a massive day where everyone drops their guard and goes back to normal. The Euros must've played a huge part in the current rise in cases which should drop off in a couple of weeks, schools will be shut from next week too.

 

There's still plenty of caution and concern amongst the population and from all the images we've seen in the past month in the football social distancing there has gone out of the window.

[reynard]

13 minutes ago, Corky said:

Not convinced Monday is a massive day where everyone drops their guard and goes back to normal. The Euros must've played a huge part in the current rise in cases which should drop off in a couple of weeks, schools will be shut from next week too.

 

There's still plenty of caution and concern amongst the population and from all the images we've seen in the past month in the football social distancing there has gone out of the window.

Agree with a lot of this but, though, the rise in cases may slacken off a bit we're heading towards 100k a day and maybe more. Boris has basically put all of us into the world's biggest scientific experiment where the effects of long covid on younger people basically left exposed to an ever increasing risk of infection are completely unknown.

Monday is a huge gamble which may not only go wrong in the short term but possibly leave thousands of young people with health issues for years to come.

[Dahnsouff]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Lots of folks here asking what happens if the vaccines aren't effective?

 

I fear to answer to that is simple but rather terrifying: either there is a drastic societal shift across the world emphasising vastly increased healthcare and triage provision...or the virus wins.

Been working so may missed something, has there been indication of vaccine efficacy is falling/failing?

[dsr-burnley]

8 minutes ago, reynard said:

Agree with a lot of this but, though, the rise in cases may slacken off a bit we're heading towards 100k a day and maybe more. Boris has basically put all of us into the world's biggest scientific experiment where the effects of long covid on younger people basically left exposed to an ever increasing risk of infection are completely unknown.

Monday is a huge gamble which may not only go wrong in the short term but possibly leave thousands of young people with health issues for years to come.

How much difference is monday going to make?  If the rules on Monday stay as they are now, will that be a super-safe option where no-one catches the virus and the problems go away?  Because looking at the figures, numbers seem to heading upwards anyway - it's not as if Boris is giving us the choice of 100,000 per day or 1,000 per day, is it.  How many extra people are likely to catch this based on mask wearing becoming optional and pubs being able to serve from the bar?

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, yorkie1999 said:

In one of our offices there are 5 lads in their 20's, 2 had symptoms so they had to take pcr tests, 2 were positive, the other 3 were negative and have been everyday since as they are required to show a negative lateral flow test to get in. The 2 didn't get vaccinated but the other 3 have been vaccinated. Is this just coincidence?

Another odd thing, couple i know has a place in spain but they needed a purchased negative pcr test to travel there, so they got them,  went to register them online and one had already been registered in spain.

The chances of that being coincidence are slim and the probability is that the vaccine protected them in some sense. 

[Stevosevic]

2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

 

England’s Covid unlocking is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists

International experts say ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop

 

Boris Johnson’s plan to lift virtually all of England’s pandemic restrictions on Monday is a threat to the world and provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, international experts say.

Britain’s position as a global transport hub would mean any new variant here would rapidly spread around the world, scientists and physicians warned at an emergency summit. They also expressed grave concerns about Downing Street’s plans.

Government advisers in New Zealand, Israel and Italy were among those who sounded alarm bells about the policy, while more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet journal warning the strategy could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.

An adviser to New Zealand’s government told the summit he and his colleagues were astounded at the approach being taken in England.

“In New Zealand we have always looked to the UK for leadership when it comes to scientific expertise, which is why it’s so remarkable that it is not following even basic public health principles,” said Michael Baker, a professor of public health at the University of Otago and a member of the New Zealand ministry of health’s Covid-19 technical advisory group.

 

Also participating was Prof José Martin-Moreno of the University of Valencia, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), who said: “We cannot understand why this is happening in spite of the scientific knowledge that you have.”

Others warned the British government’s approach would be imitated, for political expediency, by authorities elsewhere.

“What I fear is that that the some of the worst impulses in many of our states will follow the UK example,” said Dr William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School researcher and a pioneering Aids researcher who chairs Access Health International, a New York-based thinktank.

“I am extremely dismayed to see the very rapid rate of increasing infections in a population that is vaccinated pretty much like we are.”

Prof Christina Pagel, the director of University College London’s clinical operational research unit, told the meeting: “Because of our position as a global travel hub, any variant that becomes dominant in the UK will likely spread to the rest of the globe. The UK policy doesn’t just affect us. It affects everybody and everybody has a stake in what we do.”

The letter to the Lancet said: “We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”

 

 

 “The world is watching the current avoidable crisis unfold in the UK,” said Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, who is taking part in Friday’s summit.

She added on Twitter: “Let’s be under no illusions – we are in a country where our government is taking steps to maximally expose our young to a virus that causes chronic illness in many. Our govt is ending all protections for our children including isolation of contacts of cases in schools & bubbles.”

The summit, All the Citizens, was being broadcast live on YouTube at noon UK time.

The concerns expressed in other countries comes after Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, warned on Thursday that the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 could reach “quite scary” levels within weeks, as cases soared caused by the more contagious Delta variant and the lifting of lockdown restrictions.

Whitty said in a webinar late on Thursday, hosted by the Science Museum, that hospital admissions were doubling about every three weeks, and that the current low numbers of Covid admissions could rise to serious levels in the next couple of months.

New coronavirus infections in the UK are at a six-month high, according to government figures, and the number of people in hospital and dying with Covid are at their highest level since March. Thursday’s data showed 3,786 people in hospital with Covid and another 63 virus-related deaths.

Downing Street, which has defended the lifting of all remaining legal restrictions on social gatherings in England on 19 July, is hoping the rapid rollout of vaccines will keep a lid on the number of people becoming seriously ill.

Then surely the US is too? They've not had any restrictions for a while now.

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Sorry ????  Am I missing something ref the vaccines ??

 

by the way, when you fully shut off the country from the rest of the world, how are you going to get all the stuff you need to live on from Europe which comes in by truck ?  
 

it’s not feasible 

Well if they're effective then why is there a threat of another lockdown looming? We were promised the vaccine drive would put an end to restrictions because we'd be out the woods. If we go back in to a lockdown how can anyone with a straight face say the vaccines work sufficiently, when we have a near 90% uptake. 

[reynard]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

How much difference is monday going to make?  If the rules on Monday stay as they are now, will that be a super-safe option where no-one catches the virus and the problems go away?  Because looking at the figures, numbers seem to heading upwards anyway - it's not as if Boris is giving us the choice of 100,000 per day or 1,000 per day, is it.  How many extra people are likely to catch this based on mask wearing becoming optional and pubs being able to serve from the bar?

Potentially a lot. It isn't just about masks is it. Everyone is hung up on the argument over masks but the rules on indoor gatherings and social distancing are more significant. Probably little doubt the Euros have had a big impact on the infection rate etc etc.

 

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

And what's more is people like myself, who were really, really hesitent about taking this vaccine but took it anyway, to get everything back to normal and (big if obviously) we end up locked down again anyway, what chance is there of people taking another, new, better vaccine to get us out of the woods? I bit the bullet for this one but I, like many, many others, won't be quite so forgiving to take a new one when it turns out there wasn't much point in having it (point being we're locked down again anyway). It's a right mess. 

[st albans fox]

14 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Well if they're effective then why is there a threat of another lockdown looming? We were promised the vaccine drive would put an end to restrictions because we'd be out the woods. If we go back in to a lockdown how can anyone with a straight face say the vaccines work sufficiently, when we have a near 90% uptake. 

First dose is only around 60% effective 

and you have to wait around 10 days post second dose for efficacy to rise to 90%.

 

ten days ago second dose was around 63% - so around 6 in 10 are protected against serious illness - NOT CATCHING IT.  It’s always been known that vaccinations don’t stop you becoming. Infectious.  There are many millions of people who are still not protected from serious illness ….