Coronavirus Thread

[Legend_in_blue]

10 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

Do we think a lockdown will come again? Or will we follow in the footsteps of France and basically bar anyone without the vaccine from doing anything? 

 

 

Both.

[Super_horns]

17 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The point is the majority that you see everywhere are cloth masks.  At what point is a cloth mask not effective?  I would say that judging by the article, they're pointless and nothing more than a token gesture for following guidelines.

Guess they mean the home made ones which are probably made to look nice just don’t offer the same protection ?

[st albans fox]

19 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The point is the majority that you see everywhere are cloth masks.  At what point is a cloth mask not effective?  I would say that judging by the article, they're pointless and nothing more than a token gesture for following guidelines.

 

1 minute ago, Super_horns said:

Guess they mean the home made ones which are probably made to look nice just don’t offer the same protection ?

the cloth masks are pretty ineffectual in protecting you against viral particles (unless they are the very few that have inserts for ‘protective sheets’ which can be renewed)

 

the surgical masks are around 90% effective 

 

the N95/FFP3 masks are around 95-100% protective 

 

of you wear a cloth mask then when you cough or sneeze, the droplets are held within your mask but the potentially dangerous aerosol micro particles will escape 

 

if you wear a surgical mask then you will still push out viral particles through the gaps around your nose and the sides of your mouth but it’s certainly not as bad as not wearing one at all. 

 

[Ric Flair]

17 hours ago, z-layrex said:

Nothing about this post makes any sense. Have you ever actually looked up the evidence for masks and reducing the spread of a respiratory virus. Here's 70 peer-reviewed sources: https://threader.app/thread/1279144399897866248

 

Of course cases will periodically go up, wearing a mask is just one of the tools we have to help blunt that surge as the public.

 

You're talking about detrimental affects to the NHS but you don't make any sense. How do you think the regular NHS services like oncology or surgical lists are supposed to cope with more and more covid patients coming through the doors again? I visited a hospital in Kent last week that has already had to shut half it's operating theatres for use as 'red' icu beds for covid patients.

 

We are at sub 50 deaths but they are rising and will keep rising again. We are in the midst of a pandemic that will last for years, and it feels like half the British public is going "LALALALALALALALALALALALALA NOT LISTENING ANYMORE IT'S ALL OVER NO MASK ANYMORE THANKS". We don't get to decide when this is done with us.

I think it's becoming abundantly clear though that even with the vaccine we can't return to normal which is an absolutely hideous and depressing prospect. The vaccine doesn't stop the spread and even though its 96% effective against hsopitalisations that's still a large number of people that will be hospitalised when the waves of infection keep coming, and they will.

 

So I can see why people say we have to get on with it, even the powers that be are but it's also clear that it's going to be nigh on impossible to do so. 

 

 

[Ric Flair]

35 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

Do we think a lockdown will come again? Or will we follow in the footsteps of France and basically bar anyone without the vaccine from doing anything? 

 

 

This government will change their mind, they have proven that many times. The numbers will rise and they'll cave in which will make this even harder to handle. It's so depressing, I don't see a way out of this any time soon. Consequences either way you handle this and it takes a strong and sane government, not a chance there then.

[Super_horns]

Wonder what will happen now the kids are off ?

 

Will they just spread the virus out of school or will case reduce now they are all not packed together in a unventilated class room ? 

[Pliskin]

14 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

This government will change their mind, they have proven that many times. The numbers will rise and they'll cave in which will make this even harder to handle. It's so depressing, I don't see a way out of this any time soon. Consequences either way you handle this and it takes a strong and sane government, not a chance there then.

I said earlier I can see by the end of September a from lockdown in place again…… 

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, Pliskin said:

I said earlier I can see by the end of September a from lockdown in place again…… 

Something will happen, not a chance there'll be full capacities at football for the entire season put it that way. 

[filbertway]

There would be no point introducing restrictions in a month, we will smash the peak and be on the way down by then I'd imagine. The virus is quickly going to run out of suitable hosts within the next month or so and the R number will fly down. 

[MattFox]

There won’t be a full lockdown again. 

 

Can see us returning to Step 3 (May/July) though 

[MattFox]

16 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Wonder what will happen now the kids are off ?

 

Will they just spread the virus out of school or will case reduce now they are all not packed together in a unventilated class room ? 

Should bring cases down but has to be weighed up against the fact we’ve now got Clubs etc open

[dsr-burnley]

What would be the ambition of another lockdown?  Is it with the intention that another lockdown will kill the virus and it will go away completely?  Or with the intention that there will ultimately be fewer cases in total, spread over a longer period, than if we don't lockdown?  Or with the intention that the number of cases won't be any less but they will happen later rather than now?  Or with the intention of a semi-permanent lockdown so the "third wave" of cases is delayed for ever?

 

There is a lot of "the government is doing it wrong and we need to do something different", which is a fair enough opinion - but it would be helpful if there was some coherent narrative about what the alternative is.  If the idea is simply to delay coronavirus cases to another time - which other time?  But if it is to permanently reduce the number of coronavirus cases - how will it work?

Edited 21 July 2021 by dsr-burnley

[Pliskin]

19 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

What would be the ambition of another lockdown?  Is it with the intention that another lockdown will kill the virus and it will go away completely?  Or with the intention that there will ultimately be fewer cases in total, spread over a longer period, than if we don't lockdown?  Or with the intention that the number of cases won't be any less but they will happen later rather than now?  Or with the intention of a semi-permanent lockdown so the "third wave" of cases is delayed for ever?

 

There is a lot of "the government is doing it wrong and we need to do something different", which is a fair enough opinion - but it would be helpful if there was some coherent narrative about what the alternative is.  If the idea is simply to delay coronavirus cases to another time - which other time?  But if it is to permanently reduce the number of coronavirus cases - how will it work?

What has been their intention throughout the pandemic? 
 

We all know too well as soon as the NHS start making serious noise, the medical experts publicly criticise the government and then they impose restrictions. 
 

It’s kind of how it’s all goes isn’t it? 

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

I think it's becoming abundantly clear though that even with the vaccine we can't return to normal which is an absolutely hideous and depressing prospect. The vaccine doesn't stop the spread and even though its 96% effective against hsopitalisations that's still a large number of people that will be hospitalised when the waves of infection keep coming, and they will.

 

So I can see why people say we have to get on with it, even the powers that be are but it's also clear that it's going to be nigh on impossible to do so. 

 

 

Putting on my optimist hat for a moment, there will come a day when things get back to normal, even if it isn't all that soon.

 

This type of viral outbreak of this level of virulence has never really become endemic to the point that it's disrupted society for many years on end. The influenza outbreak of 1918 for instance, burned strong and then mutated to a less virulent but more dominant strain and vanished as quickly as it had appeared. Other similar examples exist, the vast majority of which were in a time where medicine was an extremely speculative field and we didn't know a tenth of what we know now about the things.

 

The problem is, and has been, keeping a semblance of society running and safeguarding health-care infrastructure for the time it takes until it does burn out.

[Tommy G]

There should only be another lockdown if the hospitalisations are putting pressure on the NHS, which they aren't. Even in the winter peak the NHS was never ''overwhelmed'' and that was before any vaccines. 

 

If we lockdown after a major vaccine programme then that signals no hope really? We will be in this cycle forever.

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, Tommy G said:

There should only be another lockdown if the hospitalisations are putting pressure on the NHS, which they aren't. Even in the winter peak the NHS was never ''overwhelmed'' and that was before any vaccines. 

 

This thread never fails to astonish me. Some members still need to understand that simply saying something on a football forum does not make it true. The NHS was placed under unrelenting pressure and extreme strain during the second wave of the virus. From 2 November 2020 to 3 March 2021, there were never fewer than 10,000 patients in hospital with COVID-19 peaking at 34,336 on 18 January 2021, almost double that of the initial wave. In the first 3 weeks of the new year, more than 3,000 new patients with COVID-19 were admitted to hospital every single day.

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/02/hospitals-admit-one-third-of-covid-patients-in-a-single-month/

 

If we hadn't locked down entire trusts would have buckled. Also during January 2021, critical care services were indeed overwhelmed. 

 

https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512

 

I think that although another national lockdown is unlikely, it is still very possible that over the coming weeks we could see a return to regional restrictions as a result of superspreading events and in response to the clinical burden placed upon our hospitals and trusts.  

Edited 21 July 2021 by Line-X

[Guest Manley Farrington-Brown]

2 minutes ago, Line-X said:

simply saying something on a football forum does not make it true

You’re kidding, right? Surely you can’t mean that?

[SpacedX]

23 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Putting on my optimist hat for a moment, there will come a day when things get back to normal, even if it isn't all that soon.

 

This type of viral outbreak of this level of virulence has never really become endemic to the point that it's disrupted society for many years on end. The influenza outbreak of 1918 for instance, burned strong and then mutated to a less virulent but more dominant strain and vanished as quickly as it had appeared. Other similar examples exist, the vast majority of which were in a time where medicine was an extremely speculative field and we didn't know a tenth of what we know now about the things.

 

The problem is, and has been, keeping a semblance of society running and safeguarding health-care infrastructure for the time it takes until it does burn out.

Agree.

 

I think the main difference is however, that levels of connectivity and international travel are far greater than a century ago when it was easier to drive down. Unless we can establish vaccine equity worldwide, this will continue to spread and consequently mutate for many years to come. 

[SpacedX]

3 minutes ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said:

You’re kidding, right? Surely you can’t mean that?

Malcolm, John or Alistair? You can't have all three. 

[The People's Hero]

Now up to 18 out of my daughter's class as confirmed with Covid (out of 31).

 

And the other 13 awaiting PCR result.

 

WOW.

[z-layrex]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

This thread never fails to astonish me. Some members still need to understand that simply saying something on a football forum does not make it true. The NHS was placed under unrelenting pressure and extreme strain during the second wave of the virus. From 2 November 2020 to 3 March 2021, there were never fewer than 10,000 patients in hospital with COVID-19 peaking at 34,336 on 18 January 2021, almost double that of the initial wave. In the first 3 weeks of the new year, more than 3,000 new patients with COVID-19 were admitted to hospital every single day.

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/02/hospitals-admit-one-third-of-covid-patients-in-a-single-month/

 

If we hadn't locked down entire trusts would have buckled. Also during January 2021, critical care services were indeed overwhelmed. 

 

https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512

 

I think that although another national lockdown is unlikely, it is still very possible that over the coming weeks we could see a return to regional restrictions as a result of super spreading events and in response to the clinical burden placed upon our hospitals and trusts.  

It's this hilarious thing where if people don't see or hear about it they think it didn't happen.

 

We had to make these satellite units, where basically we sent an ICU nurse or 2 with about 6 months experience in the field off to manage a unit of very sick patients with support from a group of untrained ward nurses. Medical cover was obviously very stretched. I remember one of the consultants telling me that "they are killing the patients over there". If that's not critical care services literally being overwhelmed I don't know what is. We are now in very real danger of that being a reality again.

 

Also guess what happened to the young nurses we threw under the bus like that? Most of them quit. Who do we send next time?

Edited 21 July 2021 by z-layrex

[Voll Blau]

 

Interesting.

[Spudulike]

In the US but I'm sure it's playing out elsewhere... 

 

 

[filbertway]

First time in at least 6 weeks (that was as far back as I could be bothered to look) that reported cases have been lower on a Wednesday than a Tuesday. Most likely an anomoly, but can't help but be a little excited at the possibility it is an early sign that we're close to the peak.

 

Last time I said something similar I think cases erupted in the next few days though

 

[Corky]

15 minutes ago, filbertway said:

First time in at least 6 weeks (that was as far back as I could be bothered to look) that reported cases have been lower on a Wednesday than a Tuesday. Most likely an anomoly, but can't help but be a little excited at the possibility it is an early sign that we're close to the peak.

 

Last time I said something similar I think cases erupted in the next few days though

 

I'm sure the Euros had a huge part to play. Had England lost to Germany and subsequently not had three more games I reckon the rate in younger people would've been much lower with no real need for mass gathering.