Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

7 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

So sorry to hear that you seem to be having such a hard time during this whole episode. Hope it all works out OK.

it is what it is - fortunately we have enough space to keep her away from us!  It’s no surprise that if you keep going out enjoying yourself then you’ve more chance of contracting it! (Especially only single jabbed as most of the youngsters are)
 

45 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Ok I now understand why you’re a bit skeptical of immunity based things! Fingers crossed you should both be fine, each exposure to disease through infection or vaccination builds your immunity. 

I’m skeptical about the vaccine immunity to delta because of the evidence I see before me. The number of double jabbed symptomatic people makes the phe stats you quoted a few days ago seem v unlikely. More recent studies have shown lower efficacy.  It’s not a massive problem in the great scheme of things as long as hospitalisations remain suppressed which seems to be the case. But virologists would no doubt say that the more people infected, the greater the chance of mutations ……..I have my own uneducated views on this but for every optimistic one I can find a pessimistic alternative!

 

my punt on symptomatic efficacy on delta once we get a few weeks down the line would be:

mrna: 65-70%

AZ: 55%

 

of course that means total efficacy (inc  asymptomatic) will be below 50% !   But as a disease we need to make it more akin to the flu in the way we live with it and if the vaccines achieve that then we have our route back to where we used to be.  be so interesting to see if it does eventually disappear. 

 

 

[Babylon]

15 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

At this rate Ferguson is due to be out by a factor of 10.

 

Impressive, even by his standards.

People love jumping on these things don't they, despite Sage and the like repeatedly adding "These projections are based on current trends and will not fully reflect the impact of policy or behavioural changes over the past two to three weeks. They are not forecasts or predictions." In great big red letters on their press releases, oh and them generally offering a range of projections, from good to bad. 

[filbertway]

1 hour ago, Babylon said:

People love jumping on these things don't they, despite Sage and the like repeatedly adding "These projections are based on current trends and will not fully reflect the impact of policy or behavioural changes over the past two to three weeks. They are not forecasts or predictions." In great big red letters on their press releases, oh and them generally offering a range of projections, from good to bad. 

Which seems to render the projections quite pointless. If any predictions come with lots of disclaimers then I'm not really sure what purpose they serve. Other than popping them in an article next to mystic meg for a bit of a laugh.

 

There seems to be waaaaaay too many variables to be able to make decent predictions. I'd probably expect microsoft or another tech giant to use machine learning and AI to make fairly accurate predictions. They'd need large amounts of data in the first place to do that though.

 

Some bloke whacking a few formulas together in excel and basically saying "it might be good, it might be okay or it might be bad" just seems like a waste of everyone's time.

 

 

 

[Nod.E]

6 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Which seems to render the projections quite pointless. If any predictions come with lots of disclaimers then I'm not really sure what purpose they serve. Other than popping them in an article next to mystic meg for a bit of a laugh.

 

There seems to be waaaaaay too many variables to be able to make decent predictions. I'd probably expect microsoft or another tech giant to use machine learning and AI to make fairly accurate predictions. They'd need large amounts of data in the first place to do that though.

 

Some bloke whacking a few formulas together in excel and basically saying "it might be good, it might be okay or it might be bad" just seems like a waste of everyone's time.

 

 

 

This was my thought as well.

 

Anyone could do that, me included. And for what it's worth, no I don't think I should have anything to do with influencing pandemic decision making!

[Legend_in_blue]

3 hours ago, Babylon said:

People love jumping on these things don't they, despite Sage and the like repeatedly adding "These projections are based on current trends and will not fully reflect the impact of policy or behavioural changes over the past two to three weeks. They are not forecasts or predictions." In great big red letters on their press releases, oh and them generally offering a range of projections, from good to bad. 

People jump on them because they have been one of the main considerations when enforcing continuing restrictions in this country.

 

Ferguson's best attempt at explaining the data above in one of his weekly BBC Radio 4 chats yesterday is as follows:

 

The “unexpected” fall in cases in recent days may be linked to the end of the Euro 2020 football tournament on 11 July and the arrival of heatwave weather, both of which have led to a reduction in people gathering indoors, he said.

 

Expert warns of possible ‘resurgence’ in Covid cases after unexpected six-day decline (msn.com)

 

He doesn't really know.  He's acting on a hunch which could be right or wrong.  Pretty much as it has been since last March.  Yet govt continue to listen to him.  As do the BBC.

 

Scientists should be asking questions as to why this is happening across the whole of the UK at exactly the same time.  Similar happened last year when cases suddenly increased everywhere at the same rate and at the same time.  Unlikely there will be an adequate answer though, for the past 18 months any alternative opinion to the narrative has been largely ignored.

 

Edited 27 July 2021 by Legend_in_blue

[Babylon]

2 hours ago, filbertway said:

Which seems to render the projections quite pointless. If any predictions come with lots of disclaimers then I'm not really sure what purpose they serve. Other than popping them in an article next to mystic meg for a bit of a laugh.

 

There seems to be waaaaaay too many variables to be able to make decent predictions. I'd probably expect microsoft or another tech giant to use machine learning and AI to make fairly accurate predictions. They'd need large amounts of data in the first place to do that though.

 

Some bloke whacking a few formulas together in excel and basically saying "it might be good, it might be okay or it might be bad" just seems like a waste of everyone's time.

 

The projections have often been in the ball park. And it’s better to have an educated guess inform decisions than it is to just let Boris ****ing Johnson do what he wants.

[Babylon]

32 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

People jump on them because they have been one of the main considerations when enforcing continuing restrictions in this country.

 

Ferguson's best attempt at explaining the data above in one of his weekly BBC Radio 4 chats yesterday is as follows:

 

The “unexpected” fall in cases in recent days may be linked to the end of the Euro 2020 football tournament on 11 July and the arrival of heatwave weather, both of which have led to a reduction in people gathering indoors, he said.

 

Expert warns of possible ‘resurgence’ in Covid cases after unexpected six-day decline (msn.com)

 

He doesn't really know.  He's acting on a hunch which could be right or wrong.  Pretty much as it has been since last March.  Yet govt continue to listen to him.  As do the BBC.

 

Scientists should be asking questions as to why this is happening across the whole of the UK at exactly the same time.  Similar happened last year when cases suddenly increased everywhere at the same rate and at the same time.  Unlikely there will be an adequate answer though, for the past 18 months any alternative opinion to the narrative has been largely ignored.

 

How could anyone know, of course they are working on educated guesses as a few days doesn’t provide you hardly enough data. 
 

A lot of stuff has all happened at the same time. Euros, weather, schools finishing, holidays. So it’s going to take a while.

[Carl the Llama]

Shady people offer money to popular social media bods to spread anti-vax propaganda.

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Shady people offer money to popular social media bods to spread anti-vax propaganda.

The irony being that the gullible fools that are susceptible to and uncritically accommodate/regurgitate internet crap like this and exort you to "think out of the box" / "do your research" solely accuse MSM, Big Pharma and scientific discovery of being in the thrall of corporate interest. 

 

Because of course online conspiracy theory is unfailingly accurate, honest, dependable, not in the least bit manipulative or exploitative, entirely free of agenda or profit and has your best interests at heart. 

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, Babylon said:

The projections have often been in the ball park. And it’s better to have an educated guess inform decisions than it is to just let Boris Johnson do what he wants.

That rather depends on how good the educated guess is.  On Sunday 18th July, 9 days ago, Ferguson said that coronavirus cases were almost certain to rise to 100,000 per day and only after that did his crystal ball start to fail.  At that time, cases were average 46,000 per day and rising.  After his pronouncement, cases have risen only on one day and now average 33,000 on the 7 day average. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

[Babylon]

1 minute ago, dsr-burnley said:

That rather depends on how good the educated guess is.  On Sunday 18th July, 9 days ago, Ferguson said that coronavirus cases were almost certain to rise to 100,000 per day and only after that did his crystal ball start to fail.  At that time, cases were average 46,000 per day and rising.  After his pronouncement, cases have risen only on one day and now average 33,000 on the 7 day average. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

They are using the data we have, and modelling from that.
 

And, if you actually watched the interview you’ll see he had it’s very difficult to say for certain and then said again with school holidays we’ll see contact rates drop in teens who’ve been showing lots of infections. And stipulated that’s why sage are pointedly making it clear it’s very difficult to predict.

[Legend_in_blue]

50 minutes ago, Babylon said:

They are using the data we have, and modelling from that.
 

And, if you actually watched the interview you’ll see he had it’s very difficult to say for certain and then said again with school holidays we’ll see contact rates drop in teens who’ve been showing lots of infections. And stipulated that’s why sage are pointedly making it clear it’s very difficult to predict.

 

I think it's fair to say he's covered all the bases now.  He can't fail this time surely? 

 

Edited 27 July 2021 by Legend_in_blue

[dsr-burnley]

50 minutes ago, Babylon said:

They are using the data we have, and modelling from that.
 

And, if you actually watched the interview you’ll see he had it’s very difficult to say for certain and then said again with school holidays we’ll see contact rates drop in teens who’ve been showing lots of infections. And stipulated that’s why sage are pointedly making it clear it’s very difficult to predict.

Of course it's difficult to say for certain.  If a Premier League chief scout said that a particular non-league player at Fleetwood is banging the goals in, but he's almost certainly not good enough for the Premier League - then you might say it's very difficult to say for certain and it's very difficult to predict.  But you wouldn't also say you do better to rely on that prediction than to let the manager do what he wants.

Edited 27 July 2021 by dsr-burnley

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, Babylon said:

They are using the data we have, and modelling from that.
 

And, if you actually watched the interview you’ll see he had it’s very difficult to say for certain and then said again with school holidays we’ll see contact rates drop in teens who’ve been showing lots of infections. And stipulated that’s why sage are pointedly making it clear it’s very difficult to predict.

 

The data shows that in the main 20-39 yr olds are mostly responsible for the increase, not teens although their numbers have made an impact.

[l444ry]

 

[Babylon]

47 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

I think it's fair to say he's covered all the bases now.  He can't fail this time surely? 

 

You know bulk something could be 51%. 

[Babylon]

30 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

The data shows that in the main 20-39 yr olds are mostly responsible for the increase, not teens although their numbers have made an impact.

And?

[Babylon]

48 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Of course it's difficult to say for certain.  If a Premier League chief scout said that a particular non-league player at Fleetwood is banging the goals in, but he's almost certainly not good enough for the Premier League - then you might say it's very difficult to say for certain and it's very difficult to predict.  But you wouldn't also say you do better to rely on that prediction than to let the manager do what he wants.

Errrrrr that’s one of the most ridiculous analogies I’ve ever seen. It’s not the opinion of one man, teams of scientists trained in the field using the data pointing in a massive upwards curve all suggested similar things could happen.

And the manager in this scenario isn’t even a football manager, it’s like a bin man being in charge of the team.

 

 

[dsr-burnley]

26 minutes ago, l444ry said:

 

I'm not really sure whether you meant to post this on the jokes thread or on here.

 

But for the record, I can't find anywhere where Boris Johnson claimed we couldn't have had the vaccine success without leaving the European Medicines Agency.  If there's a link, please post it.

 

The other reason I think he must be joking is that he claims the German vaccination programme is ahead of ours on percentage of fully vaccinated people.  He has seen that the UK has issued 123.56 vaccines per head, and has 54% of the population fully vaccinated (he's actually a couple of days out of date, it's now 55%) and a further 13.5% half vaccinated.  He has also seen that Germany has issued 107.11 vaccines per head, assumed that means 54% of their population have had two doeses and 46% have had no doses, and announced that Germany is ahead of Britain on fully doesd population.

 

It's buffoonery.  You can see from the comments that his audience has no interest in facts or accuracy.  It's the politics of hate.  Donald Trump would (in other circumstances) be proud of his disregard for truth.

[dsr-burnley]

7 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Errrrrr that’s one of the most ridiculous analogies I’ve ever seen. It’s not the opinion of one man, teams of scientists trained in the field using the data pointing in a massive upwards curve all suggested similar things could happen.

And the manager in this scenario isn’t even a football manager, it’s like a bin man being in charge of the team.

 

 

I think our main difference is on the meaning of "almost inevitable".  I reckon that when Ferguson said that something was "almost inevitable", it's a bit of a stronger opinion than your version of ""suggested similar things could happen".  I don't really think it's two ways of saying the same thing.

[l444ry]

3 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I'm not really sure whether you meant to post this on the jokes thread or on here.

 

But for the record, I can't find anywhere where Boris Johnson claimed we couldn't have had the vaccine success without leaving the European Medicines Agency.  If there's a link, please post it.

 

The other reason I think he must be joking is that he claims the German vaccination programme is ahead of ours on percentage of fully vaccinated people.  He has seen that the UK has issued 123.56 vaccines per head, and has 54% of the population fully vaccinated (he's actually a couple of days out of date, it's now 55%) and a further 13.5% half vaccinated.  He has also seen that Germany has issued 107.11 vaccines per head, assumed that means 54% of their population have had two doeses and 46% have had no doses, and announced that Germany is ahead of Britain on fully doesd population.

 

It's buffoonery.  You can see from the comments that his audience has no interest in facts or accuracy.  It's the politics of hate.  Donald Trump would (in other circumstances) be proud of his disregard for truth.

With the greatest respect, you need to watch and listen to what is said rather than what you think he said.

Edited 27 July 2021 by l444ry

[bovril]

38 minutes ago, l444ry said:

 

Can't be bothered to watch the video but there is massive disparity in the EU between countries. Some have vaccinated about 20-30% of the population. 

[l444ry]

3 minutes ago, bovril said:

Can't be bothered to watch the video but there is massive disparity in the EU between countries. Some have vaccinated about 20-30% of the population. 

Another way of saying my understanding of things cannot be challenged?

[bovril]

Just now, l444ry said:

Another way of saying my understanding of things cannot be challenged?

Don't really understand what that sentence means.

 

The comparisons are stupid and tiresome. My partner's family are in Bulgaria. They've managed about 20% vaccinated and the Delta variant has just arrived. Honestly can't be arsed right now to watch 10 minute videos from pasty Mancunians when I'm more worried about my girlfriend losing her mind with worry, but I'll watch it and get back to later with my thoughts.

[dsr-burnley]

8 minutes ago, l444ry said:

With the greatest respect, you need to watch and listen to what is said rather than what you think he said.

Well, I've watched again.  It's the minute or so from 8.30 that is the really exciting bit.  And I have now found exactly where he gets his figures from.  This website, at the time of posting, has four of his five figures quoted exactly.

 

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#uptake-tab

 

The point is, he wants (or claims to want) to compare apples with apples.  He wants to compare the figures for total vaccination rates, not vaccination rates per adult, so he doesn't use the UK figure quoted on the government site (70.8%), he uses the figure of 55.4% which is accurate enough.

 

Then he goes onto other European countties.  The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has an interesting website which shows country-by-country figures for percentage of adults vaccinated.  It says the EU as a whole has vaccinated 53.7% of adults.  It says Germany has vaccinated 55.5% of adults.  It says Denmark has vaccinated 60.9% of adults.  It says the Netherlands has vaccinated 59% of adults.  All those figures will be familiar to you from listening to the video.

 

And the buffoon speaking says that he wants to compare apples with apples, which is why he ignores the UK figure of 70.8% of adults fully vaccinated, and instead he used the percentage of total population.  

 

I don't think he's lying.  This would be far too stupid a lie.  I think he's just a buffoon.

 

PS - did you find the link where Boris says we couldn't have done this without leaving the European Medicines Agency?