Coronavirus Thread

[davieG]

Well I've had 2 vaccinations and have come down with what appears to be some from of what I've read are long Covid symptoms that people get even if they've had the vaccinations that is, a cough, tight chest, difficult to breathe and tiredness although that could be due to a lack of sleep.

 

I've had a PCR test which came back negative although they tell me it's not 100% accurate.

 

If it is some form of Covid I can only think I picked something up going to the Wolves game, probably on the crammed out train journey as I've pretty much stayed at home apart from a visit to the local shop wearing a mask and using sanitiser regularly.

 

Again if it is some form of Covid I dread to think what state I'd be in if I'd not had the vaccinations.

 

All very frustrating as I'm in the process of moving house. 

[Carl the Llama]

13 hours ago, Wymsey said:

So ignorant..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-58363754

"Please respect the rules of the salon" 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

8 days after testing positive I’m beginning to feel a  better, double jabbed so I’ve not suffered too much, just an annoying cough, aches, very lethargic and no taste or smell.

 

[Górnik Leicester]

3 hours ago, davieG said:

Well I've had 2 vaccinations and have come down with what appears to be some from of what I've read are long Covid symptoms that people get even if they've had the vaccinations that is, a cough, tight chest, difficult to breathe and tiredness although that could be due to a lack of sleep.

Had very similar Long Covid symptoms earlier in the year, but have never tested positive (and have very rarely even felt bad enough to consider taking a test).Struggled to walk up stairs without getting out of breath; tight chest; tiredness. Had been suffering from cellulitis around the time, which resulted in a short hospital stay, but tested negative throughout.

 

Genuinely don't think I've had Covid, but the more I see people who have had the same, it makes me wonder if I had actually had, but hadn't realised.

[James.]

Does anyone know what the latest evidence is for transmission via surfaces and how long the virus "lives" for outside of the body? If for example we had covid in our house, recovered and went on holiday and then someone came to the house 24 hours after we had left what would the risk be of them getting infected?

[dsr-burnley]

9 minutes ago, James. said:

Does anyone know what the latest evidence is for transmission via surfaces and how long the virus "lives" for outside of the body? If for example we had covid in our house, recovered and went on holiday and then someone came to the house 24 hours after we had left what would the risk be of them getting infected?

As near to nil as it can be.  It's an airborne disease, and they have tested and found it almost impossible to transmit by touchig infected surfaces.  One experiment I heard of was tosneeze into a £5 note, and five minutes, it was free from infection.  (I almost said "clean", but in the circumstances, not the right word!

 

Remember that in your recovery time you are almost certainly not infected.  The reason for 10 day from the start of symptoms is because the WHO have found no evidence of anyone, anywhere, being infectious more than 9 days after symptoms started.  So your house must have been clear for at least 2 days before the newcomers get there.

[fuchsntf]

On 28/08/2021 at 02:01, dsr-burnley said:

I like statisitcs, and I have been playing with them.  And I worked out some very interesting numbers.  (Interesting to me, anyway.)

 

The point was that the worst week for deaths was 29th January, 8,433.  The latest week we have to date is 13th August, 571 deaths.  But they keep telling us that the current wave is as bad as the January wave in terms of cases.  Therefore, all else being equal, the number of deaths would be the same.

 

But all else isn't equal; we have been vaccinated.  So I took the number of deaths in January but reduced it by the percentage of people fully vaccinated per age group.  Ranging from 22% for 20-24 up to 97% for 75-79.  (Over 80, strangely, only 90%.  This seems intuitively wrong and the figures bear out that it may be too low.)  

 

This would give the expected number of deaths if vaccination guaranteed immunity, with transmission unaffected and the same number of cases as now.

 

In outline: 

Under 55's.  Week ended 29th January 350 deaths, this number of deaths adjusted by vaccination percentage would reduce to 68, actual number in week to 10th September =  61.

 

Age 55-79.  Week ended 29th January 2,979 deaths, this number of deaths adjusted by vaccination percentage would reduce to 137, actual number in week to 10th September =  261.

 

Age 80+.  Week ended 29th January 5,104 deaths, this number of deaths adjusted by vaccination percentage would reduce to 469, actual number in week to 10th September =  249.

 

These are broad brush.  They take no account of partial vaccination and there is a bit of a date shift, because double jabs are up to 12th August.  But it gives a good rough guide, IMO.  (I could put the age bands into smaller, 5-year bands, but the figures are consistent within these groups so there's no point.)

 

My conclusions, based on these statistics:

 

Under 55's - the vaccine confers near-immunity from death.  The number actually dying is roughly what we would expect if only the unvaccinated ever died.  The risk was already very low, now it's even lower.

 

Age 55-79.  Half the deaths are unvaccinated people who took their chance and lost; the other half are the unlucky where the vaccine didn't work for them, or perhaps were too ill with other stuff that they couldn't survive.  However, leaving aside the 137 theoretically unvaccinated, the number would drop from 2,842 to 124, a 95.6% life saving ratio.

 

Age 80+ - here's where it falls down.  The deaths are far lower than they ought to be.  (Which is good!)  My best guess would be that the ONS population statistics are not accurate so the percentage vaccinated is not accurate.  My second best guess is that the infection rate among the old is much lower now than it was then, though that seems intuitively impossible as they were under strict lockdown then and they aren't now.  One thing is certain, that the vaccine is doing a fantastic job in this age group, however we turn the figures round and round or upside down.

 

Ultimate conclusion - younger ages, it's the unvaccinated who are dying; older ages, half and half, with the caveat that there are 20 times as many vaccinated people (95% take-up) than unvaccinate

Just on Statistics forgetting the humans Side & Personal & loss..

Also those Early deaths of the over 70s, got rid of a Real lot of heavy vulnerable chaff.

Every passes of time in this pandemic then the whole society will deliver in  Interim more where the vulnerable will succombe,simple Natural supply chain..

 

At this point ,well since vaccine readily available,and their success rate measurable....positive/negative..

In my logic...All Medical static Organisations should be releasing the simple side,no hidden agendas,or Held back thoughts......

Easy &  Readily to understand..and navigate

 

daily or weekly....

New cases.:-     ./.how many were vaccinated/ how many on ICUs. /  how many in hospital/ age-groups

Deaths:-             as above../Vulnerability situation/ pre healthy cases.

 

Mitigating:-        include Flu & Pneumonia as separate stats, or any high Death cause.    i) relevant or that Run with covid. ii) No Covid-relevance

Cured...  :-          as above...After a few weeks ..the After effects

 

 

[James.]

26 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

As near to nil as it can be.  It's an airborne disease, and they have tested and found it almost impossible to transmit by touchig infected surfaces.  One experiment I heard of was tosneeze into a £5 note, and five minutes, it was free from infection.  (I almost said "clean", but in the circumstances, not the right word!

 

Remember that in your recovery time you are almost certainly not infected.  The reason for 10 day from the start of symptoms is because the WHO have found no evidence of anyone, anywhere, being infectious more than 9 days after symptoms started.  So your house must have been clear for at least 2 days before the newcomers get there.

Thanks for responding. What about if someone was still unknowingly infected at the point they left the house? Could airborne particles still be around 24 hours later?

Edited 31 August 2021 by James.

[foxy boxing]

4 hours ago, davieG said:

Well I've had 2 vaccinations and have come down with what appears to be some from of what I've read are long Covid symptoms that people get even if they've had the vaccinations that is, a cough, tight chest, difficult to breathe and tiredness although that could be due to a lack of sleep.

 

I've had a PCR test which came back negative although they tell me it's not 100% accurate.

 

If it is some form of Covid I can only think I picked something up going to the Wolves game, probably on the crammed out train journey as I've pretty much stayed at home apart from a visit to the local shop wearing a mask and using sanitiser regularly.

 

Again if it is some form of Covid I dread to think what state I'd be in if I'd not had the vaccinations.

 

All very frustrating as I'm in the process of moving house. 

Being vaccinated only stops people dying from covid, it doesn't stop you getting it or transmitting it or you getting symptoms. A lot of people think just because they have been double jabbed they cannot catch it. You can, even if you've had it before you can catch it again. With schools opening there are more and more children being sent to get tested even if they just have a cold or the sniffles, schools are sending them to get tested. A lot of flow tests are seemingly unreliable. 

[dsr-burnley]

57 minutes ago, James. said:

Thanks for responding. What about if someone was still unknowingly infected at the point they left the house? Could airborne particles still be around 24 hours later?

I understand that as long as 10 days have passed since the start of symptoms, then you won't be infectious.  You may be still infected in the sense that traces of the virus remain, but they won't be infectious.

 

I don't remember ever hearing any suggestion of how long airborne particles remain airborne, but I doubt it would be more than a day.  I think we would have heard about it, if that was the case. 

[SpacedX]

55 minutes ago, James. said:

Does anyone know what the latest evidence is for transmission via surfaces and how long the virus "lives" for outside of the body? If for example we had covid in our house, recovered and went on holiday and then someone came to the house 24 hours after we had left what would the risk be of them getting infected?

As has been mentioned, SARS-CoV-19 is predominately passed on via airborne as opposed to formite transmission. Smaller COVID-19 infectious aerosols can linger in the air for minutes to hours - longer than larger droplets, more than 5 micrometres in diameter, which fall out of the air quickly. Research has indicated that aerosols of SARS-CoV-2 remain infectious for longer than do aerosols of some related respiratory viruses. Observed aerosols of SARS-CovV-19, have remained infectious for at least 16 hours - but this is hard to evaluate outside of laboratory conditions. Ventilation is the key factor which helps these disperse, but anyone visiting the premises after 24 hours should be fine, although hand sanitisation and a face mask would be advisable. 

 

Here is some more information on the significance of airborne transmission from earlier this year:

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00277-8

[davieG]

1 minute ago, foxy boxing said:

Being vaccinated only stops people dying from covid, it doesn't stop you getting it or transmitting it or you getting symptoms. A lot of people think just because they have been double jabbed they cannot catch it. You can, even if you've had it before you can catch it again. With schools opening there are more and more children being sent to get tested even if they just have a cold or the sniffles, schools are sending them to get tested. A lot of flow tests are seemingly unreliable. 

I  was aware of that so much so that I was convinced I had Covid, The PCR test is the most accurate but not 100%

[z-layrex]

On 30/08/2021 at 17:00, st albans fox said:

Was speaking to someone today who had played golf with a consultant at a midlands hospital 

 

relevant because the majority of those in his hospital are double vaccinated- of course if we analyse the raw maths then the 10% of people who are in effect unprotected after double vaccination will feed through to a sizeable number of hospitalisations. @z-layrex - are your patients still generally the unvaccinated…..

I can only speak for the 4 ICU's we have on my site, but yes they are all unvaccinated. There are a lot of patients on ecmo in the UK network and not one is vaccinated, which considering our high vaccination rate is very statistically significant.

 

I visit a lot of units in London and the south (retrieving patients for ecmo) and their patients are all unvaccinated too as far as I'm aware.

 

Remember though I only see the sickest of the sick, I have zero knowledge of the wards in my role. Essentially you don't want me to know you exist if you are in hospital. 

Edited 31 August 2021 by z-layrex

[fox_favourite]

So I’ve had 2 PCR tests and both negative . I did 11 LFT over 10 days and still negative. Whether I’ve had a cold that had covid type of symptoms I don’t know as I know a lot of people who have colds at the mo. My wife was convinced it wasn’t covid (now has a cold), but when you get a runny nose, tight chest (though not unusual for me with a cold) and tiredness made me wonder. Not sure 2 PCR tests in 10 days can’t be wrong, surely?

Edited 31 August 2021 by fox_favourite

[z-layrex]

2 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

So I’ve had 2 PCR tests and both negative . I did 11 LFT over 10 days and still negative. Whether I’ve had a cold that had covid type of symptoms I don’t know as I know a lot of people who have colds at the mo. My wife was convinced it wasn’t covid (now has a cold), but when you get a runny nose, tight chest (though not unusual for me with a cold) and tiredness made me wonder. Not sure 2 PCR tests in 10 days can’t be wrong, surely?

Yeah 2 pcr won't be wrong, you just have a cold/virus of some sort.

[Lionator]

7 hours ago, James. said:

Thanks for responding. What about if someone was still unknowingly infected at the point they left the house? Could airborne particles still be around 24 hours later?

I'd doubt it would be an issue at that stage though if they were concerned, perhaps just wear a mask to be extra sure. You'd need a constant flow of airborne particles to get infected so running into sporadic ones briefly really isn't going to do much harm.

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

So I’ve had 2 PCR tests and both negative . I did 11 LFT over 10 days and still negative. Whether I’ve had a cold that had covid type of symptoms I don’t know as I know a lot of people who have colds at the mo. My wife was convinced it wasn’t covid (now has a cold), but when you get a runny nose, tight chest (though not unusual for me with a cold) and tiredness made me wonder. Not sure 2 PCR tests in 10 days can’t be wrong, surely?

Had 4 LFTs myself, didn't bother with a PCR though. I've got a dry/tickly cough I think, had a sore throat which lasted 3/4 days (Mostly from football I think), had the chills for 12 hours, then they disappeared, now I've got a cough and keep losing my voice. It's too late to test positive now, I'm off to Butlins next weekend Will probably do another couple of LFTs in the next week or so though.

[VLC86]

4 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

So I’ve had 2 PCR tests and both negative . I did 11 LFT over 10 days and still negative. Whether I’ve had a cold that had covid type of symptoms I don’t know as I know a lot of people who have colds at the mo. My wife was convinced it wasn’t covid (now has a cold), but when you get a runny nose, tight chest (though not unusual for me with a cold) and tiredness made me wonder. Not sure 2 PCR tests in 10 days can’t be wrong, surely?

I wouldn’t bet against it, the tests are clearly shit. I tested negative on one, 5 days later I tested positive. My other half got a test which was negative, 10 days later gets a cough and sore throat… still negative.

 

Someone I work with gets a cough, so did another family member… one positive and one negative. Heard the same from a few others, I’m not sure the odds of all of these examples not having Covid are that great.

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

I wouldn’t bet against it, the tests are clearly shit. I tested negative on one, 5 days later I tested positive. My other half got a test which was negative, 10 days later gets a cough and sore throat… still negative.

 

Someone I work with gets a cough, so did another family member… one positive and one negative. Heard the same from a few others, I’m not sure the odds of all of these examples not having Covid are that great.

Agreed.

 

Half of it is just the luck of the draw with the test Only thing I've not lost is my taste, and I'm still as active as ever (in terms of at work rather than sports) without getting out of breath.

[VLC86]

6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Agreed.

 

Half of it is just the luck of the draw with the test Only thing I've not lost is my taste, and I'm still as active as ever (in terms of at work rather than sports) without getting out of breath.

That’s good. It messed me up breathing wise for a few weeks but back to norma on that front. Played 5 a side tonight and was absolutely ****ed though haha.

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

[Jattdogg]

@WigstonWanderer brought me here.

 

Canada/Ontario is in its 4th wave just before schools reopen. Fun times.

 

Wife is going back to teach so concerned even though we are fully vaccinated . Kids are under 12 so not. Sigh.  Will be interesting to see how things go.

[st albans fox]

Potentially significant news from the Zoe app

 

long covid risk appears to be approximately halved in the double jabbed.  This gives the age group 25/40 who feel that they aren’t at a big risk of anything serious a very good reason to get jabbed

 

We need more data ref this risk reduction and age analysis before we can say that the U18 can use this raw stat as a strong reason to be vaccinated 

[Soup]

9 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Unfortunately this this type of thing is happening all the time and has been for 18 months. If the media wanted to report all the stories like this they'd have no time to report anything else. The poor blokes story is heartbreaking but it's also a scandal if you ask me 

[Bellend Sebastian]

Everyone else necking the ivermectin as quick as they can get their hands on it?

 

Absolute madness, it's fascinating to watch