Coronavirus Thread

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, SlaneyLCFC said:

Opinions and arseholes etc....

Is the peer reviewed science flawed, then?

 

6 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Internet, of course.  It's a useful tool. 

Yep.

 

And I could likewise find credible info on there that would indicate a significant correlation between Republican voters (as opposed to governors) and vaccine refusal, and increased hospitalisations and deaths.

[Charl91]

17 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I dare say your comments were "glib".  But to link Republican governors with high covid isn't just glib, it's false.  If I had come on here to state (with factual accuracy) that parts of the UK with nationalist MPs have higher rates of covid than those that don't, wouldn't you think I was making a point about nationalism?  It's nonsense.

 

Yes, it's ture that many Republican states in the south-east have cumulative covid death rates of around 200 per million, compared with (say) New Jersey, the worst affected, wich is over 300.  I do not say there is any link between New Jersey's high figures and New Jersey having a Democrat governor.  I do not say there is correlation between New Jersy having a Democrat governor and New Jersey having the highest death rate.  I suspect demographic factors are mroe to blame.  

Why are you talking about Republican Governors? Seems like the conversation was about republican states, not Governors. And it seems fairly logical, given that...

 

• People who refuse the vaccine are more likely to be hospitalised or die from covid. (fact)
• People who vote Republican are more likely to refuse the vaccine. (fact)
• Republican states are more likely to have a higher percentage of Republican voters. (Admittedly I haven't verified this fact, but I'll eat my own leg if it's not the case).

 

I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but even I can deduce that Republican voters are more likely to become seriously ill/die from Covid, and therefore Republican states aren't going to do as well. Which part of that premise are you disagreeing with?

 

 

 

 

Edited 6 September 2021 by Charl91

[dsr-burnley]

27 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

Why are you talking about Republican Governors? Seems like the conversation was about republican states, not Governors. And it seems fairly logical, given that...

 

• People who refuse the vaccine are more likely to be hospitalised or die from covid. (fact)
• People who vote Republican are more likely to refuse the vaccine. (fact)
• Republican states are more likely to have a higher percentage of Republican voters. (Admittedly I haven't verified this fact, but I'll eat my own leg if it's not the case).

 

I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but even I can deduce that Republican voters are more likely to become seriously ill/die from Covid, and therefore Republican states aren't going to do as well. Which part of that premise are you disagreeing with?

 

 

 

 

I'm a statisitician, not a theoretician.  In theory, suffering from covid should be a function of who you vote for.  Sounds logical.

 

But one thing covid does throw up is statisitcs.  In practice, does that theory hold up?  No.    So the part of the premise I am disagreeing with, is the premise.  It's wrong.

 

I don't get the difference between republican states and republican governors.  How do you determine whether a state is republican or democrat, apart from by seeing who they vote for?  A state that elects a republican governor is a republican state, surely.

[WigstonWanderer]

33 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

Why are you talking about Republican Governors? Seems like the conversation was about republican states, not Governors. And it seems fairly logical, given that...

 

• People who refuse the vaccine are more likely to be hospitalised or die from covid. (fact)
• People who vote Republican are more likely to refuse the vaccine. (fact)
• Republican states are more likely to have a higher percentage of Republican voters. (Admittedly I haven't verified this fact, but I'll eat my own leg if it's not the case).

 

I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but even I can deduce that Republican voters are more likely to become seriously ill/die from Covid, and therefore Republican states aren't going to do as well. Which part of that premise are you disagreeing with?

 

 

 

 

Our friend has gone off on a tangent referring to all the deaths that have occurred since the start of the pandemic, when it was quite obvious that we are talking about an effect due to differential uptake of the vaccine, hence only relevant to refer to data post vaccine rollout. Still, always worth misrepresenting a post and hope that some will fall for it I suppose.

Edited 6 September 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[WigstonWanderer]

14 hours ago, st albans fox said:

You can’t seriously use New Jersey ref deaths as an example?  That was nearly all at the outset of this shitty journey 

 

neither of you are right btw …… I’m not sure which of you is more right/wrong though !

I bow to your judgement as the final arbiter.

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

I'm a statisitician, not a theoretician.  In theory, suffering from covid should be a function of who you vote for.  Sounds logical.

 

But one thing covid does throw up is statisitcs.  In practice, does that theory hold up?  No.    So the part of the premise I am disagreeing with, is the premise.  It's wrong.

 

I don't get the difference between republican states and republican governors.  How do you determine whether a state is republican or democrat, apart from by seeing who they vote for?  A state that elects a republican governor is a republican state, surely.

 

I'm not really sure what you're trying to argue with here. The point which spawned this conversation was (I paraphrase) Democrat states are doing better than Republican states in terms of illness/death, and this is because of a higher vaccine uptake.

 

So which part of this statement are you arguing against? 

 

Are you trying to argue that Democrat states aren't doing better (post vaccine) than Republican states?

Is it that Democratic states don't have a higher vaccine uptake?

Is it that Covid deaths bear no correlation with the proportion of vaccinated people?

 

Throw me a bone here, because I'm not quite sure what you're disagreeing with.

 

 

 

 

Edited 6 September 2021 by Charl91
Spelling

[Carl the Llama]

2 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I'm a statisitician, not a theoretician.  In theory, suffering from covid should be a function of who you vote for.  Sounds logical.

 

But one thing covid does throw up is statisitcs.  In practice, does that theory hold up?  No.    So the part of the premise I am disagreeing with, is the premise.  It's wrong.

 

I don't get the difference between republican states and republican governors.  How do you determine whether a state is republican or democrat, apart from by seeing who they vote for?  A state that elects a republican governor is a republican state, surely.

The premise you disagree with isn't what was put forwards, you're arguing with yourself.

 

The observation being made is that in the USA where vaccines have become a political football, democrat voters are significantly more likely to get the jabs than Republican voters.  This has resulted in a landscape where there are more hospitalisations and death from covid in the areas with largely Republican voter bases.  It's a very simple concept to grasp.

[st albans fox]

3 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I bow to your judgement as the final arbiter.

no one is ever right about anything which is debatable …..

 

which begs the question as to how I can be ‘the final arbiter’ !

 

 

[Ian Nacho]

I’ve had an awful cold for about a week now, one of the worst I’ve ever had. Been doing lateral flow tests which have been coming back negative; had a PCR which also came back negative. Then two people in my household test positive but I’m still negative. Very strange. 

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

no one is ever right about anything which is debatable …..

 

which begs the question as to how I can be ‘the final arbiter’ !

 

 

Well you declared quite definitively that we were both wrong, so I assume you must know what you are talking about.

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, Charl91 said:

 

I'm not really sure what you're trying to argue with here. The point which spawned this conversation was (I paraphrase) Democrat states are doing better than Republican states in terms of illness/death, and this is because of a higher vaccine uptake.

 

So which part of this statement are you arguing against? 

 

Are you trying to argue that Democrat states aren't doing better (post vaccine) than Republican states?

Is it that Democratic states don't have a higher vaccine uptake?

Is it that Covid deaths bear no correlation with the proportion of vaccinated people?

 

Throw me a bone here, because I'm not quite sure what you're disagreeing with.

It's the reason. 

 

Democrat states are doing better than Republican states, true.  There may be marginal differences in number of vaccinations that have a marginal effect, but when you look at the reason Louisiana (Republican.7.7 deaths per 100k last week) and Arkansas (Democrat, 6.53 death per 100k) are so high and North Dakota (Rebublican, 0.52 deaths per 100k) and Minnesota (Democrat, 0.78 deaths per 100k) are so low, is not because of their voters, but because of their geographical position.  The south eastern states are getting it tough at present, the northern states a lot less so.

 

Current US death rates correlate closely to where there are most cases, which is in the south east.  They don't correlate to vaccinations.  There may be small local variations, certainly too small to measure on a statewide basis.

 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

It's the reason. 

 

Democrat states are doing better than Republican states, true.  There may be marginal differences in number of vaccinations that have a marginal effect, but when you look at the reason Louisiana (Republican.7.7 deaths per 100k last week) and Arkansas (Democrat, 6.53 death per 100k) are so high and North Dakota (Rebublican, 0.52 deaths per 100k) and Minnesota (Democrat, 0.78 deaths per 100k) are so low, is not because of their voters, but because of their geographical position.  The south eastern states are getting it tough at present, the northern states a lot less so.

 

Current US death rates correlate closely to where there are most cases, which is in the south east.  They don't correlate to vaccinations.  There may be small local variations, certainly too small to measure on a statewide basis.

 

There is no correlation between vaccination uptake and death rate?

 

Nah, I don't quite believe that, not when there's a wealth of scientific research saying otherwise.

[dsr-burnley]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

There is no correlation between vaccination uptake and death rate?

 

Nah, I don't quite believe that, not when there's a wealth of scientific research saying otherwise.

There is no statistically significant correlation between US states' vaccination rate and US states' death rate.  This is because the small difference in vaccination rates between republican and democrats, multiplied up by the small relative difference in numbers of republicans and democrats in blue/red states, is tiny compared with the geographic spread of number of cases.

 

There is a huge correlation for an individual between vaccination uptake and death rate.  This correlation does not extend up to saying that North Dakota has a higher death rate than Arkansas.  You cannot look at North Dakota and Arkansas, and still believe that the main driver of deaths is based on republican voting.

Edited 6 September 2021 by dsr-burnley

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

There is no statistically significant correlation between US states' vaccination rate and US states' death rate.  This is because the small difference in vaccination rates between republican and democrats, multiplied up by the small relative difference in numbers of republicans and democrats in blue/red states, is tiny compared with the geographic spread of number of cases.

 

There is a huge correlation for an individual between vaccination uptake and death rate.  This correlation does not extend up to saying that North Dakota has a higher death rate than Arkansas.  You cannot look at North Dakota and Arkansas, and still believe that the main driver of deaths is based on republican voting.

I'm sorry, this is a flawed line of reasoning but it's late here. I'll explain exactly why when I have time, but I wanted that on the record in case anyone came to the same conclusion in the meantime and wanted to step in.

[SpacedX]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'm sorry, this is a flawed line of reasoning but it's late here. I'll explain exactly why when I have time, but I wanted that on the record in case anyone came to the same conclusion in the meantime and wanted to step in.

I think many have...which is also historically the case in respect of our self appointed Foxes Talk "statistician".

[MPH]

Well one statistic I can give everyone and this is directly ‘ from the horses mouth’ is:

 

We currently have 28 Covid patients on my Covid floor and not a single one of them have been vaccinated.

[dsr-burnley]

Take two hypothetical states.  One voted 55-45 republican, the other 55-45 democrat.  Pretty decisive results.

 

Then take the vaccination take-up between republican and democrat.  US average is 56% fully vaccinated, so let's say 46% of republicans are fully vacinated, 66% of democrats.  It's hard to get proper figures but that's as high a difference as most commentators will go.

 

What's the difference in percentage vaccination between the strong republican state with republicans being strongly anti-vaccine, and strong democrat state with democrats strongly anti-vaccine?  Republican = 55% vaccinated, Democrat = 57% vaccinated.  That's why there is no significant statistical relationship between the way a state voted, and the number of deaths.

[MPH]

4 hours ago, Ian Nacho said:

I’ve had an awful cold for about a week now, one of the worst I’ve ever had. Been doing lateral flow tests which have been coming back negative; had a PCR which also came back negative. Then two people in my household test positive but I’m still negative. Very strange. 

 

Would you vote republican or democrat?

[grth2004]

5 hours ago, MPH said:

 

Would you vote republican or democrat?

 

10 hours ago, Ian Nacho said:

I’ve had an awful cold for about a week now, one of the worst I’ve ever had. Been doing lateral flow tests which have been coming back negative; had a PCR which also came back negative. Then two people in my household test positive but I’m still negative. Very strange. 

It’s the Man Flu Strain 

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I'm sorry, this is a flawed line of reasoning but it's late here. I'll explain exactly why when I have time, but I wanted that on the record in case anyone came to the same conclusion in the meantime and wanted to step in.

 

8 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Take two hypothetical states.  One voted 55-45 republican, the other 55-45 democrat.  Pretty decisive results.

 

Then take the vaccination take-up between republican and democrat.  US average is 56% fully vaccinated, so let's say 46% of republicans are fully vacinated, 66% of democrats.  It's hard to get proper figures but that's as high a difference as most commentators will go.

 

What's the difference in percentage vaccination between the strong republican state with republicans being strongly anti-vaccine, and strong democrat state with democrats strongly anti-vaccine?  Republican = 55% vaccinated, Democrat = 57% vaccinated.  That's why there is no significant statistical relationship between the way a state voted, and the number of deaths.

Alright then...

 

First off, I think the idea of focusing on this in terms of individual states as Repub or Dem is flawed in the first place. That a state has a Repub or Dem governor doesn't mean that there isn't a significant number of people in there that voted the other way, just a minority, after all. Therefore, I think it's better to consider the two groups as one bloc rather than state-by-state - if the point of the argument is to prove that whether or not the majority of vaccine refusal and also hospitalisations/deaths are from Republican supporters or geography.

 

Allow me to be clear: the higher overall prevalence of Covid in the SE USA among all groups is probably down to geography. However, across the entire country, the overall rate of deaths is much higher among the populace that votes Republican.

 

As you say, hard data is hard to come by, but this is proven by a recent poll that shows a 33 percent difference in vaccine uptake between the two groups ( https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-demographic-breakdown-vaccinated-u-s-n1277514) and the CDC reporting that 97% of hospitalisations and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated ( https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/07/22/press-briefing-by-white-house-covid-19-response-team-and-public-health-officials-46/). It logically follows that therefore Republicans are succumbing more to this virus overall.

 

The outbreak in the US at the present time does have something to do with geography, but it also has a lot to do with politics.

 

 

[CosbehFox]

14 hours ago, MPH said:

Well one statistic I can give everyone and this is directly ‘ from the horses mouth’ is:

 

We currently have 28 Covid patients on my Covid floor and not a single one of them have been vaccinated.

Hence when you see an article this morning in a national newspaper saying that government are considering October firebreak it’s getting increasingly maddening at the anti vaxxers. 
 

There’s been talk of how we will have a two tier society with a vaccine passport. Will happen regardless if people’s ignorance is going to stop them have the vaccine and place the NHS under pressure, effectively increasing the chances of a lockdown 

[Greg2607]

It will be HUGELY unpopular opinion (maybe I should have used that thread)  but I don't see why people who have chosen not to be vaccinated, shouldn't have restrictions imposed if the cases spike. 

 

Not vaccinated? then you have to go into a lockdown for a month. 

 

If you can prove your vaccine status, then continue as normal. 

 

IF the correlation of Vaccines to Hospitalisations stays low, then I don't see why my way of life should be impacted by those who choose to walk a different path. 

 

it would be political suicide, but it feels like the fair thing to do. 

 

we ALL joined in with a collective effort when none of us were vaccinated. To protect everyone.  But I fail to see why I should have to continue to protect someone who has decided that Covid is a hoax or the vaccine will make you grow extra limbs and develop mutant powers.

[Daggers]

On 16/08/2021 at 21:56, Costock_Fox said:

Folk that have had Covid, when is my smell and ****ing taste coming back?

Wife lost hers in April 2020 and her toes went numb. Still not returned a year and four months now - can’t see it ever coming back. I never lost any sense when I caught it two weeks after her - it’s bizarre.

[VLC86]

6 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Wife lost hers in April 2020 and her toes went numb. Still not returned a year and four months now - can’t see it ever coming back. I never lost any sense when I caught it two weeks after her - it’s bizarre.

That’s grim, sorry to hear that. I hope I’m not in that bracket.

[Super_horns]

Talk of an October lockdown whilst the booster jab is rolled out.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me although will people follow the rules if there is one ?