Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

 

FALSE INTERPRETATION OF DATA

 

basically there are way more double jabbed over 40’s catching covid than non jabbed because 90% of people are double jabbed 

 

Just as there are more double jabbed dying with a pos test in past 28 days than there are non vaccinated 

It should also be noted that a fair proportion of the unvaxed over 40’s would never take a test and be amongst the stats ….

 

he’s comparing apples and bicycles ….  

Edited 14 October 2021 by st albans fox

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

FALSE INTERPRETATION OF DATA

 

basically there are way more double jabbed over 40’s catching covid than non jabbed because 90% of people are double jabbed 

 

Just as there are more double jabbed dying with a pos test in past 28 days than there are non vaccinated 

 

he’s comparing apples and bicycles ….  

 

Same thing:

 

 

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Same thing:

 

 

I deliberately chose two things that I thought were so far away from each other and yet on here ……. I shouldn’t be surprised !

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Exactly, the vaccines quite clearly help prevent hospitalisations and deaths which is what's most important to enable us to regain some form of normal way of life and not completely overwhelm the health system constantly.

 

It's just the messaging around the vaccine which is misleading and why it irks when the young and healthy are made to be derided as selfish for not perhaps thinking they need the vaccine.

Surely the real reason for vaccine passports is to nudge people to get the vaccine so that they don’t clog up the health care system and cause collateral damage amongst non Covid patients. Actual case numbers don’t matter anywhere near as much now IMHO.

[WigstonWanderer]

15 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

FALSE INTERPRETATION OF DATA

 

basically there are way more double jabbed over 40’s catching covid than non jabbed because 90% of people are double jabbed 

 

Just as there are more double jabbed dying with a pos test in past 28 days than there are non vaccinated 

It should also be noted that a fair proportion of the unvaxed over 40’s would never take a test and be amongst the stats ….

 

he’s comparing apples and bicycles ….  

I wondered about this very point but wasn’t sure how to interpret the data in the linked paper (also couldn’t be bothered to read it thoroughly), so thanks for doing so. I’ve seen the same sort of misinterpretation done repeatedly elsewhere, sometimes by people who should know better.

[Dunge]

From what I see from the data presented in this case, it’s the correct interpretation of data but leads people to make an incorrect inference from it.

[Stivo]

2 hours ago, Wolfox said:

You wot?  Surely that’s bollox?

 

Or is that because people think they’re invincible?

 

All the data suggests you’re a lot less likely to catch 

Its true and misleading

 

The government figures do show that.  
 

The reason is that they used the NIMS database to calculate how many people there were not the ONS database.  NIMS is based on people registered with a GP and many people are double registered or not registered at all. The impact is to overestimate the number of unvaccinated.  If you use the more accurate ONS figure then the reported effect disappears and the unvaccinated are more likely to test positive.

 

The ft reported this 

https://www.ft.com/content/125fbaf8-175a-4e2e-852a-9995ca5176b2

 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, Dunge said:

From what I see from the data presented in this case, it’s the correct interpretation of data but leads people to make an incorrect inference from it.

This is the key element, folks.

 

It's deliberately designed to sow doubt in the vaccine by stating a correct statistic that is then inferred incorrectly.

 

It's deeply frustrating because this stuff takes ten times as much time and effort to refute as it does to produce, and yet it has to be refuted at that cost of time and effort because it can't be left for folks to see it, believe it, and most importantly act on it - not when the consequences of that are as bad as they would be.

[Corky]

Sorry if I've got this completely wrong but surely you are more likely to catch Covid whilst being double vaccinated as the majority of the population is double vaccinated? Doesn't seem to be breaking news-worthy.

[drumbeat]

17 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

we all know that being vaccinated doesn't stop you catching covid or spreading it, i know plenty of people who have caught covid after being double jabbed, so, what is the point of a pass that is literally worthless as a means of stopping the spread of the virus?

It's a very good question. I guess the answer could be along the lines of the vaccines not being supposed to stop the spread per se (catching it and passing it on) but to stop people being hospitalised with it, or being killed by it.

 

Think of the vaccines as being to protect the NHS from being swamped and unable to perform other needed functions.

 

[drumbeat]

21 minutes ago, Corky said:

Sorry if I've got this completely wrong but surely you are more likely to catch Covid whilst being double vaccinated as the majority of the population is double vaccinated? Doesn't seem to be breaking news-worthy.

Yep, one of those seemingly counter intuitive things that fall out of stats.

 

Dave Allen used to do a joke (perhaps not so funny these days) about drunk drivers being responsible for 3% of road deaths (or whatever the stat was) That meant 97% of deaths were due to sober drivers.... so why didn't sober drivers get off the road and leave the drunks to drive in safety.

[KrefelderFox666]

32 minutes ago, drumbeat said:

Yep, one of those seemingly counter intuitive things that fall out of stats.

 

Dave Allen used to do a joke (perhaps not so funny these days) about drunk drivers being responsible for 3% of road deaths (or whatever the stat was) That meant 97% of deaths were due to sober drivers.... so why didn't sober drivers get off the road and leave the drunks to drive in safety.

That last one was exactly what I was thinking of earlier as well. It's just the way stats can be used to fit an agenda. Stats are very powerful when used correctly, but they can also be deceiving if used incorrectly.

[Stivo]

This REACT study set out to measure just this and isnt subject to issues involving population estimates.  
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/react-study-shows-fully-vaccinated-are-three-times-less-likely-to-be-infected

 

 

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

1 hour ago, drumbeat said:

Dave Allen used to do a joke (perhaps not so funny these days) about drunk drivers being responsible for 3% of road deaths (or whatever the stat was) That meant 97% of deaths were due to sober drivers.... so why didn't sober drivers get off the road and leave the drunks to drive in safety.

Always enjoy watching old Dave Allen stuff on YouTube.

Gives me a warm feeling because my dad used to laugh his head off when watching him.

[st albans fox]

37 minutes ago, Stivo said:

This REACT study set out to measure just this and isnt subject to issues involving population estimates.  
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/react-study-shows-fully-vaccinated-are-three-times-less-likely-to-be-infected

 

That study was june/july. it may be outdated now ref 

a) delta is now pretty much 100% of cases and is more transmissible than alpha was 

b) double jabbed in the over 50's will be less protected as antibodies wane somewhat over time. 

[Stivo]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

That study was june/july. it may be outdated now ref 

a) delta is now pretty much 100% of cases and is more transmissible than alpha was 

b) double jabbed in the over 50's will be less protected as antibodies wane somewhat over time. 

a) delta was the dominant strain by early June and was 99% of sequenced cases by 21st June. The study was over last week of June and early July.

b) true but the contention of the OP was that a vaccinated person was more likely to catch covid than an unvaccinated person. The study shows that isn’t the case at all. Waning reduces the protection that a vaccinated person has but in no way makes them more likely to catch it than an unvaccinated person.

 

[Lionator]

10 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

 

This is fake news. End of. 

[SpacedX]

6 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Always enjoy watching old Dave Allen stuff on YouTube.

Gives me a warm feeling because my dad used to laugh his head off when watching him.

"Goodnight, thank you, and may your God go with you."

[UpTheLeagueFox]

New rules allowing travellers returning to England to take lateral flow tests instead of more expensive PCR tests will come into force on 24 October.

The government says the changes will take effect in time for families returning from half term breaks.

Fully vaccinated passengers will be told to upload photos of their Covid-19 tests for verification.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said it would make travel easier and simpler.

The travel industry had said it was vital to make the changes to the Covid travel tests in time for the half term holiday.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58917231

[FoxesDeb]

2 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

New rules allowing travellers returning to England to take lateral flow tests instead of more expensive PCR tests will come into force on 24 October.

The government says the changes will take effect in time for families returning from half term breaks.

Fully vaccinated passengers will be told to upload photos of their Covid-19 tests for verification.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said it would make travel easier and simpler.

The travel industry had said it was vital to make the changes to the Covid travel tests in time for the half term holiday.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58917231

My children are flying back to the UK on the 22nd ffs 

[yorkie1999]

11 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

New rules allowing travellers returning to England to take lateral flow tests instead of more expensive PCR tests will come into force on 24 October.

The government says the changes will take effect in time for families returning from half term breaks.

Fully vaccinated passengers will be told to upload photos of their Covid-19 tests for verification.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said it would make travel easier and simpler.

The travel industry had said it was vital to make the changes to the Covid travel tests in time for the half term holiday.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58917231

May as well not bother with testing then because all you have to do is apply the fluid and it shows a line next to the C.

[Super_horns]

Somebody did tell me once you can make these test results up which must be a bit worrying but not sure how true that is.

Seems like cases and deaths are on the up which is concerning but guess there is no going back on restrictions and the like now. 

 

We've all got to just keep going and be safe.
 

[Lionator]

23 hours ago, Corky said:

Sorry if I've got this completely wrong but surely you are more likely to catch Covid whilst being double vaccinated as the majority of the population is double vaccinated? Doesn't seem to be breaking news-worthy.

If you take one unvaccinated person and one vaccinated person, then no the unvaccinated person is more likely to catch it. 

 

Say there are 100 people and 80% of them are vaccinated and 20% of them aren't, and the vaccine was only 50% effective. There were 10 infections, you would expect around 6/7 of them to be in the vaccinated population (7/80) and 3/4 of them to be in the unvaccinated population (3/20). As you can see there are more infections in the vaccinated population but the odds of them getting covid are massively less than the vaccinated population. 

[st albans fox]

So a lab in Wolverhampton has been issuing neg PCR results for over a month when they were actually positive 

 

This anomoly where LFT’s were pos and the subsequent PCR neg has been publicised for at least two weeks - and yet it took until last night for the issue to be acknowledged by test and trace with confirmation of the problem rather than them not sure what was happening. 
 

surely It can’t have been that difficult to work out that one lab was responsible for a high percentage of negs following pos LFT’s if this info was being highlighted by local authorities….

 

but it’s good that the govt have learned from their mistakes ….

 

it was a sh1tshow to begin with and I’m afraid it remains a sh1tshow 

 

the only redeeming feature is the vaccination program (down to NHS organisation) which means we won’t suffer the death rate we would be seeing without it. 
 

 

[gerblod]

On 12/10/2021 at 14:23, daddylonglegs said:

Despite being double jabbed for a few months, both my girlfriend & I have recently tested positive. Both fine but can't taste or smell a thing. Pain in the arse!

 

Not particularly arsed about the isolation - it is what it is.... but, would be interested to hear if anyone else lost their sense of taste & smell and when it came back? 

I fell ill with what I thought was a cold on October 6th. No headache, no sore throat, some muscle aches in my back and shoulders, no raised temperature nor elevated heart rate. Some coughing but mostly sneezing and bunged-up sinuses. Then, when the symptoms eased I found my sense of smell gone (anosmia).

So I did an LFT test a few days later - positive - then a PCR, which confirmed the first test.

Ten days on and my sense of smell is returning. I have some essential oils and certain ones are discernible, others not so clear. My sense of taste is fine. A mechanic friend lost his s-o-s six months ago and it persists - however I believe he wasn't vaccinated for Covid at that time.

I suspect that double inoculation has mitigated the worst effects of Covid.

 

Post infection catarrh will affect sense of smell as well. Inhalers, essential oil diffusers and nasal washes might help.

 

I trust it will return quite quickly for both of you.