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If anyone else is a bit of an election nerd, I made my own prediction model a couple of years ago, and based on current polling, the Tories are (unsurprisingly) in for a mauling:

 

🌹LAB: 322 (+120)
🔵CON: 206 (-159)
🎗️SNP: 56 (+8)
🔶LIB: 35 (+24)
🏵️PLC: 5 (+1)
♻️GRN: 3 (+2)
🔲OTH: 5 (+4)
 

 

57E1F5E2-5B9A-4F47-BF56-44C4FCF3EF0D.jpeg

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Just now, FuriousFox46 said:

If anyone else is a bit of an election nerd, I made my own prediction model a couple of years ago, and based on current polling, the Tories are (unsurprisingly) in for a mauling:

 

🌹LAB: 322 (+120)
🔵CON: 206 (-159)
🎗️SNP: 56 (+8)
🔶LIB: 35 (+24)
🏵️PLC: 5 (+1)
♻️GRN: 3 (+2)
🔲OTH: 5 (+4)
 

 

57E1F5E2-5B9A-4F47-BF56-44C4FCF3EF0D.jpeg

It was very accurate in the 2019 election by the way!

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8 minutes ago, FuriousFox46 said:

If anyone else is a bit of an election nerd, I made my own prediction model a couple of years ago, and based on current polling, the Tories are (unsurprisingly) in for a mauling:

 

🌹LAB: 322 (+120)
🔵CON: 206 (-159)
🎗️SNP: 56 (+8)
🔶LIB: 35 (+24)
🏵️PLC: 5 (+1)
♻️GRN: 3 (+2)
🔲OTH: 5 (+4)
 

 

57E1F5E2-5B9A-4F47-BF56-44C4FCF3EF0D.jpeg

I thought I was an election nerd until you made your own prediction model!

 

I’ll downgrade myself to “enthusiast” now.

 

Makes for grim reading if you’re of the conservative persuasion. I imagine many MPs will weigh this kind of thing up when wondering whether to send in a letter of no confidence.

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9 minutes ago, FuriousFox46 said:

If anyone else is a bit of an election nerd, I made my own prediction model a couple of years ago, and based on current polling, the Tories are (unsurprisingly) in for a mauling:

 

🌹LAB: 322 (+120)
🔵CON: 206 (-159)
🎗️SNP: 56 (+8)
🔶LIB: 35 (+24)
🏵️PLC: 5 (+1)
♻️GRN: 3 (+2)
🔲OTH: 5 (+4)
 

 

57E1F5E2-5B9A-4F47-BF56-44C4FCF3EF0D.jpeg

Marvellous 

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5 minutes ago, LVocey said:

I thought I was an election nerd until you made your own prediction model!

 

I’ll downgrade myself to “enthusiast” now.

 

Makes for grim reading if you’re of the conservative persuasion. I imagine many MPs will weigh this kind of thing up when wondering whether to send in a letter of no confidence.

Haha! Few things I love more than an election 

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33 minutes ago, FuriousFox46 said:

If anyone else is a bit of an election nerd, I made my own prediction model a couple of years ago, and based on current polling, the Tories are (unsurprisingly) in for a mauling:

 

🌹LAB: 322 (+120)
🔵CON: 206 (-159)
🎗️SNP: 56 (+8)
🔶LIB: 35 (+24)
🏵️PLC: 5 (+1)
♻️GRN: 3 (+2)
🔲OTH: 5 (+4)
 

 

57E1F5E2-5B9A-4F47-BF56-44C4FCF3EF0D.jpeg

Be interesting if this were to happen - if labour would go it alone in a hung parliament or look to team up with Lib Dems or Plaid, maybe even the greens.

 

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6 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

@DANGEROUS TIGER

 

1. As Danny pointed out, there was a global recession in 2007, which rather contradicts your point about Labour and the country’s finances in 2010. 
 

2. The Tories reaction to the 2010 financial crisis was austerity, and in the 10 years before COVID they cut every service, scheme and asset to the barest bones, taxing the poorest in ever more creative and sinister ways. 
 

There were 40,000 people using food banks in the UK in 2010. 
 

By 2019 that rose to 1.6 million.

 

By 2021, it was 2.5 million. 
 

3. It’s really not a good idea to blame COVID for the current situation. As I pointed out here a fortnight ago, their response was reprehensibly bad:
 

Note that above I didn’t even mention the billions wasted on dodgy PPE, which they have written off at an extraordinary £8.5 BILLION. 

 

I didn’t even mention the £4.5 BILLION of fraud they’ve written off. 
 

As Nandy pointed out in her evisceration of Gove, that alone is more than they’re proposing to spend “levelling up”. it would even have covered the £1000 Universal Credit uplift, which would have helped vulnerable people. 
 

4. Ok, so let’s factor in COVID, even if you want to defend their response. 
 

They promised to “level up” as part of their manifesto in 2019. 
 

They’ve had 2 years since then. And THIS is all they can come up with?

 

It’s beyond pathetic.

They’ve been pretty distracted for a couple of years ……but covid has given them a free pass on any neg consequences of brexit and their policies in general ….

 

 

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1 minute ago, LVocey said:

Be interesting if this were to happen - if labour would go it alone in a hung parliament or look to team up with Lib Dems or Plaid, maybe even the greens.

 

They would have a working majority with 322 because of the Speaker and Sinn Féin’s abstentions, I’d imagine they’d go it alone unless they absolutely had to

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2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Apologies for what might well be a remarkably naive question, but what the actual f**k does 'levelling up' mean? My guess is it's nonsense that sounds good.

More than likely rejuvenating 'neglected' areas like Rotherham, Sheffield, Wolverhampton, in terms of sprucing up building, salaries, improving job skills etc.

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3 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Apologies for what might well be a remarkable naive question, but what the actual f**k does 'levelling up' mean? My guess is it's nonsense that sounds good.

It’s a soundbite. Like strong and stable, oven ready, getting on with the job etc. the Tories are excellent at marketing and PR. 

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