Not The Politics Thread.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

For those "waiting for Survation" ...

 

 

What has happened to give the Tories a five point swing over the past fortnight, England football bounce or something?

[grth2004]

15 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

For those "waiting for Survation" ...

 

 

What has happened to give the Tories a five point swing over the past fortnight, England football bounce or something?

Probably the Priti Patel immigration border control lock everyone up bill 

[Dunge]

51 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

For those "waiting for Survation" ...

 

 

What has happened to give the Tories a five point swing over the past fortnight, England football bounce or something?

My guess would be natural variation in the polling.

 

It’ll be more interesting to see across the polls what happens in a few weeks, when the England racism situation and the reticence over complete opening up come into them.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

13 minutes ago, Dunge said:

It’ll be more interesting to see across the polls what happens in a few weeks...

To be fair, people have been saying "yeah but wait for such and such to kick in" (etc) many times over the past six months and it's still not brought much poll negativity for Boris or poll joy for Kierth so far.

[urban.spaceman]

23 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

To be fair, people have been saying "yeah but wait for such and such to kick in" (etc) many times over the past six months and it's still not brought much poll negativity for Boris or poll joy for Kierth so far.

That’s a new one

[Dunge]

49 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

To be fair, people have been saying "yeah but wait for such and such to kick in" (etc) many times over the past six months and it's still not brought much poll negativity for Boris or poll joy for Kierth so far.

Still, you’d think something would kick in eventually, and continuing to recommend mask use is something I suspect will get many a goat.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

8 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Still, you’d think something would kick in eventually, and continuing to recommend mask use is something I suspect will get many a goat.

Something will surely kick in, they can't keep having these decent sized leads, might be a change of Labour leader which does it, unless Kiefth suddenly strikes a chord with a wider audience.

[ozleicester]

Ive pretty much given up watching overseas politics other than its impact on the world stage.. but, i just saw.. that the current UK labour leader is a "Sir".. is this true?.... If so, no wonder they are such a complete shitshow.

New LAbour destroyed almost everything that the real labour party stood for, i doubt they (as they are now) will ever see power in my lifetime.

The Aust Labor party is in the same boat... lite versions of corrupt conservatives who have lost their way with their real supporter base and simply feed the middle class greed.

[ealingfox]

5 hours ago, ozleicester said:

Ive pretty much given up watching overseas politics other than its impact on the world stage.. but, i just saw.. that the current UK labour leader is a "Sir".. is this true?.... If so, no wonder they are such a complete shitshow.

New LAbour destroyed almost everything that the real labour party stood for, i doubt they (as they are now) will ever see power in my lifetime.

The Aust Labor party is in the same boat... lite versions of corrupt conservatives who have lost their way with their real supporter base and simply feed the middle class greed.

 

Why? It's not like he inherited the title as an aristocrat. Is working your way to the top of a distinguished professional field from a relatively modest background now a bad thing? 

[Buce]

[CosbehFox]

14 hours ago, ozleicester said:

Ive pretty much given up watching overseas politics other than its impact on the world stage.. but, i just saw.. that the current UK labour leader is a "Sir".. is this true?.... If so, no wonder they are such a complete shitshow.

New LAbour destroyed almost everything that the real labour party stood for, i doubt they (as they are now) will ever see power in my lifetime.

The Aust Labor party is in the same boat... lite versions of corrupt conservatives who have lost their way with their real supporter base and simply feed the middle class greed.

The reason he's a Sir is more than deserved and you could argue at an absolute credit to this country. 

Edited 14 July 2021 by Cardiff_Fox

[David Guiza]

As an aside to the above -  I'd like to imagine that I'd turn down any award from the Queen due to the same/similar reasons that other notable names have done the same. Plus, it's never going to happen anyway so I can look all noble by saying that. I do however enjoy the irony of those who ridicule Starmer for his knighthood, but happily support a party that have countless honours associated to them through virtue of coming from the sperm of somebody else who had one. 

Whilst on the subject of Starmer, I do feel that he isn't given half the credit he deserves for his pre-leadership career. I have a natural bias as a Labour supporting, vegetarian, legal professional (though nowhere near his calibre on the legal front), and there is of course more to leading a party and nation than your working career, but the comparison between Johnson's background as a failed journalist to Starmer's as a QC and Director of Public Prosecutions is laughable. On a sidenote of the comparison to Johnson, I also have had to laugh at those claiming that Starmer was jumping on the football bandwagon when he's seemingly played for most of his life and was at Wembley in '96 whilst at the same time Johnson was calling the ban on firearms in the wake of Dunblane a 'nanny state' decision. 

 

Furthermore on Starmer too - I'd consider myself a socialist, but perhaps only in the lighter definition of the word. I own and have read the Communist Manifesto, and also have fairly extensive background reading on Castro and Guevara and their vision of socialism, but I cannot get on board with the extreme left of the party who are consistently labelling Starmer and co as red tories and the like. Starmer's parents were strong Labour supporters and he was even named after Keir Hardie, the founder of the party and former trade unionist. Not to mention the fact that he was a member of the young socialists and has described himself as such throughout his career. It's surely not too complex to decipher that the only way Labour, or any opposition party or parties, are going to oust the current rabble is to appeal to the masses where possible, without going too far of course. 

 

I'd perhaps prefer Burnham as leader on the basis that he'd likely generate more support in the areas that will decide the future GE, but some of the criticism is getting a little tiresome. Thus concludes my defence of KS . 

 

[LVFox]

Think those points are really valid @David Guiza, on paper Starmer is the perfect Labour leader at this point. Seperated from the far left wing of the party and with an impressive career before his political one. He's the "adult in the room" to contrast Boris's bluster.

The annoyance really has been that his demeanor leaves to him appearing completely unbothered at what this government is doing, I'd love to see him fired up and angry. He's just far to non-committal on any issue.

[BenTheFox]

2 hours ago, LVocey said:

Think those points are really valid @David Guiza, on paper Starmer is the perfect Labour leader at this point. Seperated from the far left wing of the party and with an impressive career before his political one. He's the "adult in the room" to contrast Boris's bluster.

The annoyance really has been that his demeanor leaves to him appearing completely unbothered at what this government is doing, I'd love to see him fired up and angry. He's just far to non-committal on any issue.

I quite like the guy and personally I'd vote for him but I don't really see how he is the 'perfect Labour Leader' on paper. I'm not really sure how a London-based, pro-European, barrister is going to reconnect with working class voters in the north and the midlands. 

[Buce]

9 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I quite like the guy and personally I'd vote for him but I don't really see how he is the 'perfect Labour Leader' on paper. I'm not really sure how a London-based, pro-European, barrister is going to reconnect with working class voters in the north and the midlands. 

 

A London-based Old Etonian seems to have managed it.

[enmac]

12 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I quite like the guy and personally I'd vote for him but I don't really see how he is the 'perfect Labour Leader' on paper. I'm not really sure how a London-based, pro-European, barrister is going to reconnect with working class voters in the north and the midlands. 

How can an old Etonian, £1000 a roll lying bully, who despises poor people attract such voters? 

[CosbehFox]

20 hours ago, Dunge said:

My guess would be natural variation in the polling.

 

It’ll be more interesting to see across the polls what happens in a few weeks, when the England racism situation and the reticence over complete opening up come into them.

Subsequent polls been a lot closer and more notably Lib Dems support growing which links into some Tory fears

[enmac]

3 hours ago, LVocey said:

Think those points are really valid @David Guiza, on paper Starmer is the perfect Labour leader at this point. Seperated from the far left wing of the party and with an impressive career before his political one. He's the "adult in the room" to contrast Boris's bluster.

The annoyance really has been that his demeanor leaves to him appearing completely unbothered at what this government is doing, I'd love to see him fired up and angry. He's just far to non-committal on any issue.

Absolutely. Needs more passion. Honestly believe our Nige would be more effective. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

13 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Subsequent polls been a lot closer and more notably Lib Dems support growing which links into some Tory fears

Since May 24th there have been 40 polls.

The last 20, the Tories have averaged a lead of 9.3%

The previous 20 the average was 10.3%

So there's been only a tiny shift towards Labour.

Serious Q, does the slight increase for the LDs not eat into Labour as well?

[Dunge]

3 hours ago, LVocey said:

Think those points are really valid @David Guiza, on paper Starmer is the perfect Labour leader at this point. Seperated from the far left wing of the party and with an impressive career before his political one. He's the "adult in the room" to contrast Boris's bluster.

The annoyance really has been that his demeanor leaves to him appearing completely unbothered at what this government is doing, I'd love to see him fired up and angry. He's just far to non-committal on any issue.

His calmer demeanour is something I like about him. Although there is room for more energy in my view: Not anger at the Conservatives, but passion for what he sees in Britain’s future. He comes across as an administrator rather than a visionary, which isn’t all a bad thing but you need both to be a truly attractive leader.

[Dunge]

Just now, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Since May 24th there have been 40 polls.

The last 20, the Tories have averaged a lead of 9.3%

The previous 20 the average was 10.3%

So there's been only a tiny shift towards Labour.

Serious Q, does the slight increase for the LDs not eat into Labour as well?

It probably does, but I’d suggest not in any meaningful way as any Labour —> Lib Dem vote would be most likely in an area where voters are combining forces to go anti-Tory. It could be considered good news for Labour if they were willing to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, which this Labour surely would in a heartbeat as it’s difficult to see much real difference between them right now.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

20 minutes ago, Dunge said:

It probably does, but I’d suggest not in any meaningful way as any Labour —> Lib Dem vote would be most likely in an area where voters are combining forces to go anti-Tory. It could be considered good news for Labour if they were willing to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, which this Labour surely would in a heartbeat as it’s difficult to see much real difference between them right now.

Over the past 10 polls, the average is:
Con 41.6 (down from 42.7 compared to the previous 10)

Lab 32.9 (down from 33)

LD 10.3 (up from 9.3)

So you could assume from that the LD 1% rise is at expense of the Cons 1% drop

Cons average lead over the same period drops from 10% to 8.6%

[Dunge]

1 minute ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Over the past 10 polls, the average is:
Con 41.6 (down from 42.7 compared to the previous 10)

Lab 32.9 (down from 33)

LD 10.3 (up from 9.3)

So you could assume from that the LD 1% rise is at expense of the Cons 1% drop

Cons average lead over the same period drops from 10% to 8.6%

In general, probably so. The issue for the Tories might be where it happens though. If it’s focussed in seats where the Tories are fighting the Lib Dems, as it probably is, then that matters to them a lot more than the same swing from Tories to Lib Dems in Hartlepool would have been. ie A 2% swing in a close Tory vs Lib Dem seat + a 0% swing in Hartlepool would still average out to 1% between them but could cost the Tories a seat.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

2 minutes ago, Dunge said:

In general, probably so. The issue for the Tories might be where it happens though. If it’s focussed in seats where the Tories are fighting the Lib Dems, as it probably is, then that matters to them a lot more than the same swing from Tories to Lib Dems in Hartlepool would have been. ie A 2% swing in a close Tory vs Lib Dem seat + a 0% swing in Hartlepool would still average out to 1% between them but could cost the Tories a seat.

Yep, agreed, though always been the same in marginal seats I guess.

Depends whether Labour and the LDs (or even Greens) have the hunger to work together to get the Tories out.

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Since May 24th there have been 40 polls.

The last 20, the Tories have averaged a lead of 9.3%

The previous 20 the average was 10.3%

So there's been only a tiny shift towards Labour.

Serious Q, does the slight increase for the LDs not eat into Labour as well?

Must have been a typo cos I meant to type ‘bit closer’. Yes in one of the polls, LDs have bitten into both but as we know polls don’t translate to how constituents work.
 

Press in the past couple of days has been that senior Tories are raising concerns at how the Lib Dem’s are beginning to perform well in the southern counties in the local elections.
 

Equally I can’t see the debates of the moment really affecting the ‘Red Wall’ returning back to Labour quite so easy