Not The Politics Thread.

[Alf Bentley]

43 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

100% actions should have been taken a long time ago to resolve this ticking time-bomb.

 

But I recommend reading reports from Germany, the US, Scandinavia, France, Italy etc who are suffering similar shortages as to why this is happening.  It's a very similar story wherever you look.  An ageing workforce with low pay and poor working conditions putting off youngsters entering the trade.  Mix with that with chaos in the global supply chain and it's a bit of a nightmare.

 

However looking at what haulage companies are beginning to offer applicants now that might be changing at a rate of knots which is a positive development 

 

This article provides some stats for different European countries: https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/driver-shortage-is-pan-european/

 

While it confirms that the problem exists across Europe, it also states:

"The most heavily affected European countries are Poland, the UK and Germany. The UK is in a particularly difficult position as it is not only grappling with Brexit, but it also saw many European workers leave over the course of the pandemic, as fears over lockdowns grew".

 

It states that the UK is, by some margin, the European country with the biggest driver shortage - with the sole exception of Poland. I don't know why Poland is even worse, but am guessing that it might have something to do with vast numbers of Poles having gone abroad for higher wages, many of them staying there (at last count, I think there were 1m Poles in the UK & I assume a lot in other countries like Germany, too).

 

It would be hard to assign stats to different factors in the exceptionally large problem the UK has.

- There's Covid (more deliveries, more drivers off sick, reduction in training & tests)....but that will have affected every country.

Then there are factors particular to the UK:

- Brexit meaning an explicit policy to discourage foreign labour.....without any political action to replace that foreign labour.

- A Govt so incompetent and unfit for office that they stood and watched for a decade as the workforce aged and wasn't replaced, either believing that the market would inevitably solve the problem or being too useless to notice a problem.

 

Yep, hard to assign blame there. Still, "Rule Britannia - and we've taken back control!". Let's all vote Tory for low taxes, high-quality public services, levelling up, debt reduction loaded on those least able to pay - and the whole shit show run by an inarticulate, "charismatic", bone-idle blond comedy TV panelist who's a habitual liar with a major ego problem. Sounds good! 

[doverfox]

27 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

Yet we're estimated to have a shortage of 100,000 drivers. As a percentage, that's much bigger than the shortage in Europe. Which is weird, because we're also theoretically able to offer better wages than a good amount of europe too (though less so since we successfully devalued our own currency.

 

I wonder what event could possibly have occurred to make us have proportionally the highest shortage of drivers? Hmmm...

Just under twice the number of vacancies per head of population.  Of course the access to cheap already trained labour from abroad i.e other european nations has made the industry ignore the issue.

[BlueSi13]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

This article provides some stats for different European countries: https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/driver-shortage-is-pan-european/

 

While it confirms that the problem exists across Europe, it also states:

"The most heavily affected European countries are Poland, the UK and Germany. The UK is in a particularly difficult position as it is not only grappling with Brexit, but it also saw many European workers leave over the course of the pandemic, as fears over lockdowns grew".

 

It states that the UK is, by some margin, the European country with the biggest driver shortage - with the sole exception of Poland. I don't know why Poland is even worse, but am guessing that it might have something to do with vast numbers of Poles having gone abroad for higher wages, many of them staying there (at last count, I think there were 1m Poles in the UK & I assume a lot in other countries like Germany, too).

 

It would be hard to assign stats to different factors in the exceptionally large problem the UK has.

- There's Covid (more deliveries, more drivers off sick, reduction in training & tests)....but that will have affected every country.

Then there are factors particular to the UK:

- Brexit meaning an explicit policy to discourage foreign labour.....without any political action to replace that foreign labour.

- A Govt so incompetent and unfit for office that they stood and watched for a decade as the workforce aged and wasn't replaced, either believing that the market would inevitably solve the problem or being too useless to notice a problem.

 

Yep, hard to assign blame there. Still, "Rule Britannia - and we've taken back control!". Let's all vote Tory for low taxes, high-quality public services, levelling up, debt reduction loaded on those least able to pay - and the whole shit show run by an inarticulate, "charismatic", bone-idle blond comedy TV panelist who's a habitual liar with a major ego problem. Sounds good! 

So the UK hasn't got the biggest driver shortage in Europe then? 

 

Can't click the link but yes it would appear the UK is 2nd perhaps on the unofficial league table of driver shortages at around 100k.  For now at least.  Germany is expected to have a shortfall of 187,000 by 2027.  What's driving that (excuse the pun) then? 

 

Brexit is a means to allow us to decide who is, and who isn't allowed, allowed to come in.  It all depends on what skills we as a country require.  At the moment we have a shortage of drivers, hence the relaxation of the Visa rules.  I'm not sure how having a fully independent immigration policy is an explicit policy to turn away all foreign labour.  

 

As for the hint at labour shortages, sure there is churn, but as I posted earlier over 6 million EU nationals have applied for settled status in this country.  Estimates from 2019 which suggested the number was almost half that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56846637

 

What that says to me is that we don't have a labour shortage, rather more like we have a shortage of people unwilling to accept shit pay and terrible working conditions.  By all accounts that is being rectified very quickly which is great news.

 

As for your love letter to the Prime Minister at the end, I wouldn't want to disturb you  

 

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

So the UK hasn't got the biggest driver shortage in Europe then? 

 

Can't click the link but yes it would appear the UK is 2nd perhaps on the unofficial league table of driver shortages at around 100k.  For now at least.  Germany is expected to have a shortfall of 187,000 by 2027.  What's driving that (excuse the pun) then? 

 

Brexit is a means to allow us to decide who is, and who isn't allowed, allowed to come in.  It all depends on what skills we as a country require.  At the moment we have a shortage of drivers, hence the relaxation of the Visa rules.  I'm not sure how having a fully independent immigration policy is an explicit policy to turn away all foreign labour.  

 

As for the hint at labour shortages, sure there is churn, but as I posted earlier over 6 million EU nationals have applied for settled status in this country.  Estimates from 2019 which suggested the number was almost half that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56846637

 

What that says to me is that we don't have a labour shortage, rather more like we have a shortage of people unwilling to accept shit pay and terrible working conditions.  By all accounts that is being rectified very quickly which is great news.

 

As for your love letter to the Prime Minister at the end, I wouldn't want to disturb you  

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-brexit-really-to-blame-for-the-shortage-of-lorry-drivers
 

Just for balance.

[The People's Hero]

They should put petrol in the cloud so we can all access it wirelessly.

 

It's this brainless, backwards thinking that has kept the UK stuck in the 70s since about 1988. 

 

 

[ajthefox]

3 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

And we thought replacing Keir Vaz in Leicester East would improve things...

Maybe she's actually just a bit weird and meant LSD and is in to incest 

[Lionator]

3 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

And we thought replacing Keir Vaz in Leicester East would improve things...

Webbe being put into that seat was 100% one of the most infuriating things the Corbyn leadership did (as a leftie). I said it at the time that there were so many people within the community, not just Leicester East but across the county who have devoted their lives for local politics who deserved a shot at such a safe seat, but they gave it to somebody who clearly doesn't have a level of rationality appropriate for such a position.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Eight point swing, Labour surge! 

 

 

[bovril]

Somewhat ironic people complaining about remainers reducing all problems in the UK to us leaving the EU after decades of....

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

Somewhat ironic people complaining about remainers reducing all problems in the UK to us leaving the EU after decades of....

It is, but I’m glad the tables have turned. It’s not so nice over there is it?

[Alf Bentley]

55 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

Brexit is a means to allow us to decide who is, and who isn't allowed, allowed to come in.  It all depends on what skills we as a country require.  At the moment we have a shortage of drivers, hence the relaxation of the Visa rules.  I'm not sure how having a fully independent immigration policy is an explicit policy to turn away all foreign labour.  

 

As for the hint at labour shortages, sure there is churn, but as I posted earlier over 6 million EU nationals have applied for settled status in this country.  Estimates from 2019 which suggested the number was almost half that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56846637

 

What that says to me is that we don't have a labour shortage, rather more like we have a shortage of people unwilling to accept shit pay and terrible working conditions.  By all accounts that is being rectified very quickly which is great news.

 

 

"It all depends on what skills we as a country require", you say. Well, everyone agrees that this shortage has been building for years. In response, the Govt severely restricted visas in this sector - and then did nothing to create the influx of British drivers needed to fill the pre-existing gaps and the extra gaps it had created through Brexit and its visa policy. Brexit & visa policy are a matter of opinion, but doing nothing to address the increased shortage is seriously braindead.

 

The solution now to fill a reported 100,000 vacancies is to offer 5,000 visas for 3 months? Even if 5000 want to come for just 3 months, that won't resolve the problem, even in the short-term.

 

In the longer-term, maybe better pay and conditions will increase the influx - and that would be good news. But I suspect that the problem is more the "terrible working conditions" than the "shit pay". Average HGV driver pay is £31-32k, reportedly - that might not be megabucks but it's more than I've ever earned......but will higher pay make it worth accepting terrible working conditions?

 

Even if there is a mass influx due to higher pay, how long will it take to train them all up? Strokes' article says 40,000 qualify in a normal year - and we're 100,000 short. But average age is currently 55 and 13% are age 60+. So, if we train people at normal rate, given the numbers leaving, it could be 3-4 years before those gaps are filled.......let's hope vast masses more than usual are attracted to the profession, so it happens quicker, eh?

 

Admittedly, I knew nothing of this driver shortage until recently. But, as a random bloke on a football forum, I did make this same point 2-3 years ago about other potential shortage areas like social care and seasonal agriculture. If you're going to slash foreign labour (a matter of political choice), it's simple competence to do something to replace them.......but we haven't got a competent govt, have we? Utterly useless!

 

43 minutes ago, Strokes said:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-brexit-really-to-blame-for-the-shortage-of-lorry-drivers
 

Just for balance.

 

That's a fair mini-article, but it essentially just says more pithily what I and others have said on here: that Brexit (and lack of preparation for Brexit) is ONE of the reasons for this debacle, along with the impact of Covid and our incompetent govt's failure to address the longer-term problem of an aging workforce and lack of new younger drivers.

 

Of course, anyone who says this is all down to Brexit is just being partisan - but so is anyone who tries to deny the significant partial role played by Brexit - and, more particularly, the failure of the Govt to work with the sector to ensure there are enough qualified British drivers to replace outgoing foreign labour.

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

"It all depends on what skills we as a country require", you say. Well, everyone agrees that this shortage has been building for years. In response, the Govt severely restricted visas in this sector - and then did nothing to create the influx of British drivers needed to fill the pre-existing gaps and the extra gaps it had created through Brexit and its visa policy. Brexit & visa policy are a matter of opinion, but doing nothing to address the increased shortage is seriously braindead.

 

The solution now to fill a reported 100,000 vacancies is to offer 5,000 visas for 3 months? Even if 5000 want to come for just 3 months, that won't resolve the problem, even in the short-term.

 

In the longer-term, maybe better pay and conditions will increase the influx - and that would be good news. But I suspect that the problem is more the "terrible working conditions" than the "shit pay". Average HGV driver pay is £31-32k, reportedly - that might not be megabucks but it's more than I've ever earned......but will higher pay make it worth accepting terrible working conditions?

 

Even if there is a mass influx due to higher pay, how long will it take to train them all up? Strokes' article says 40,000 qualify in a normal year - and we're 100,000 short. But average age is currently 55 and 13% are age 60+. So, if we train people at normal rate, given the numbers leaving, it could be 3-4 years before those gaps are filled.......let's hope vast masses more than usual are attracted to the profession, so it happens quicker, eh?

 

Admittedly, I knew nothing of this driver shortage until recently. But, as a random bloke on a football forum, I did make this same point 2-3 years ago about other potential shortage areas like social care and seasonal agriculture. If you're going to slash foreign labour (a matter of political choice), it's simple competence to do something to replace them.......but we haven't got a competent govt, have we? Utterly useless!

 

 

That's a fair mini-article, but it essentially just says more pithily what I and others have said on here: that Brexit (and lack of preparation for Brexit) is ONE of the reasons for this debacle, along with the impact of Covid and our incompetent govt's failure to address the longer-term problem of an aging workforce and lack of new younger drivers.

 

Of course, anyone who says this is all down to Brexit is just being partisan - but so is anyone who tries to deny the significant partial role played by Brexit - and, more particularly, the failure of the Govt to work with the sector to ensure there are enough qualified British drivers to replace outgoing foreign labour.

I wouldn’t disagree at all, our response has been a reaction to a crisis which is typical of this government. I won’t hide from that. However although brexit has impacted it, it’s not the point in which blame should lie. 
I will apologies though Alf, as when I posted I hadn’t read your post as I flitting between threads and I acknowledge that yours was more balanced than some.
 

I do find most of the brexit bashing posts with little substance quite amusing though.

Trade has pretty much recovered to 2019 levels. The £ is slowly rising since January’s dip.

Hopefully we can get international travel moving again.

The building trade is flying at the moment, despite supply shortages it’s not seemingly stopping people ordering.

There is plenty to be positive about if you look for it, sadly some people are on the lookout for other things.

 

Each to their own though hey?

[The People's Hero]

Its very clearly that all of this could be solved by more middle class people glueing themselves to things and preventing normal, hardworking people going about their lives.

 

The sooner we see that this sort of criminality is actual progress, the sooner we can embrace anarchy and empty their pension pots to spend on instant gratification like hot dogs.

 

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

" NEW " Slogan

 

 

[Corky]

Quite surprised by that Labour bloke resigning. Thought he'd at least be given another job in the shadow cabinet first.

 

This resigning thing isn't normal.

[BlueSi13]

49 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

"It all depends on what skills we as a country require", you say. Well, everyone agrees that this shortage has been building for years. In response, the Govt severely restricted visas in this sector - and then did nothing to create the influx of British drivers needed to fill the pre-existing gaps and the extra gaps it had created through Brexit and its visa policy. Brexit & visa policy are a matter of opinion, but doing nothing to address the increased shortage is seriously braindead.

 

The solution now to fill a reported 100,000 vacancies is to offer 5,000 visas for 3 months? Even if 5000 want to come for just 3 months, that won't resolve the problem, even in the short-term.

 

In the longer-term, maybe better pay and conditions will increase the influx - and that would be good news. But I suspect that the problem is more the "terrible working conditions" than the "shit pay". Average HGV driver pay is £31-32k, reportedly - that might not be megabucks but it's more than I've ever earned......but will higher pay make it worth accepting terrible working conditions?

 

Even if there is a mass influx due to higher pay, how long will it take to train them all up? Strokes' article says 40,000 qualify in a normal year - and we're 100,000 short. But average age is currently 55 and 13% are age 60+. So, if we train people at normal rate, given the numbers leaving, it could be 3-4 years before those gaps are filled.......let's hope vast masses more than usual are attracted to the profession, so it happens quicker, eh?

 

Admittedly, I knew nothing of this driver shortage until recently. But, as a random bloke on a football forum, I did make this same point 2-3 years ago about other potential shortage areas like social care and seasonal agriculture. If you're going to slash foreign labour (a matter of political choice), it's simple competence to do something to replace them.......but we haven't got a competent govt, have we? Utterly useless!

 

 

That's a fair mini-article, but it essentially just says more pithily what I and others have said on here: that Brexit (and lack of preparation for Brexit) is ONE of the reasons for this debacle, along with the impact of Covid and our incompetent govt's failure to address the longer-term problem of an aging workforce and lack of new younger drivers.

 

Of course, anyone who says this is all down to Brexit is just being partisan - but so is anyone who tries to deny the significant partial role played by Brexit - and, more particularly, the failure of the Govt to work with the sector to ensure there are enough qualified British drivers to replace outgoing foreign labour.

I literally don't think a single government minister or anyone associated with the government has claimed that offering visas to drivers is the "solution" to the problem.  Rather an incentive to ease some of the backlog.  We are highly unlikely to attract many with such an offer due to mainland Europe suffering similar issues but the door is now open to anyone who does want to come over.  I don't see much of a problem with this at all.  Dammed if you do dammed if you don't I guess.

 

Fully agree successive governments should have worked to help resolve this issue in the long-term but unfortunately across most of the developed world it isn't a profession many of the younger generation want to join.  Hopefully this will change in coming months/years.

 

As for filling up the supposed 100,000 vaccines I don't think anyone expects the number of drivers to ever rise by that much.  The RHA has been complaining of driver shortages for years:

 

2015:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/25/lorry-driver-shortage-christmas-deliveries-road-haulage-association

https://www.commercialfleet.org/news/truck-news/2015/11/23/hgv-driver-shortage-at-crisis-point-as-critics-question-government-steps-to-address-issue

 

2016:

https://roadstars.mercedes-benz-trucks.com/en_GB/magazine/2016/october/disappearing-drivers-why-the-uk-desperately-needs-more-truckers.html

 

We've been 50,000 to 60,000 short for years and we heard very little.  But undoubtably we need young people entering the profession.  Government and Haulage firms needs to put actions in place to encourage more to apply.  If the long term result is better pay and conditions, then fair play to them all.  It's a tough job.

[Mike Oxlong]

I blame Brexit 

[Zear0]

1 minute ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I blame Brexit 

Boooo!

 

Too soon?

[Mike Oxlong]

1 minute ago, Zear0 said:

Boooo!

 

Too soon?

What are you on about ? 

 

Mrs O just dropped it on a triple word score and with the X alone garnering her 30 points she’s well and truly out of sight 

[The People's Hero]

Mrs Oxlong sure plays a mean scrabble.

[The People's Hero]

How long did you have to search for a partner called Hisc/Hisk/Hisq/Mikesq ?

[Mike Oxlong]

4 minutes ago, The People's Hero said:

Mrs Oxlong sure plays a mean scrabble.

I’m shit mate 

 

Shit is actually shit in scrabble too - just 7 points unless you’re lucky enough to land it on a bonus tile 

Edited 27 September 2021 by Mike Oxlong

[The People's Hero]

Just now, Mike Oxlong said:

I’m shit mate 

 

Shit is actually shit in scrabble too - just 4 points unless you’re lucky enough to land it on a bonus tile 

Is it virtual/online or is there a chance to upend the board in a dramatic (but obviously accidental) show of manly strength?

[Mike Oxlong]

1 minute ago, The People's Hero said:

Is it virtual/online or is there a chance to upend the board in a dramatic (but obviously accidental) show of manly strength?

I save my board tantrums for junior monopoly 

[The People's Hero]

7 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I save my board tantrums for junior monopoly 

Every day I swear a different member here is my wife.