Smashing-Pumpkin Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 1 hour ago, AjcW said: I understand statistics, I'm just not sure how it's gained such a cult following and people are making a living out of it, when it really doesn't add much value. Like why are people trying to explain how Palace should have essentially scored 0 goals but scored 4... like why would you want to do that? What's the need? What purpose does it serve? No Palace fan is coming away from winning an away game 4-1 and thinking '****ing hell though Brian, the xG folk have said we deserved nothing so maybe we should have the points taken away' All feels a bit bitcoin fanboy to me. I probably sound about 80... i'm 31, just cynical Its a useful statistic really. It identifies how good the team is at creating chances, finishing chances, and goes a little beyond the scoreline to explain how a team is actually playing. If a team is constantly exceeding expected goals, there are underlying reasons for this, and maybe it might just be a lucky period that no one can expect to continue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weller54 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 4 hours ago, BenTheFox said: Yeah, he's basically Mourinho but with an incredible hair transplant. Mourhairuno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st albans fox Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 30 minutes ago, GingerrrFox said: Does anyone know if Roman Abramovich is sanctioned by the UK government does it impact Chelsea so that they essentially cannot pay players or continue to trade as a business entity? He isn’t domicile here anyway He is owed money by the club - I can’t see the govt deciding to seize his debt ! I also can’t see them seizing his assets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Raw Dykes Posted 24 February 2022 Popular Post Share Posted 24 February 2022 47 minutes ago, AjcW said: No you're right I could ignore it, I just used the example above because I thought in the days before all this, it would have been a simple 'Watford are very shit at taking chances but quite good at creating them and Crystal Palace are a bit shit at creating chances but dead good at taking half chances' I've not got some mad hatred towards it, i'm just not sure what it adds is all. re-shots/shots on target - That's a simple stat really isn't it, more about counting than any sort of analysis, there's no formula/algorithm behind it, they act as more of a memory refresher for fans. Apart from anything else, do you not think "Watford (1.68) 1-4 (0.74) C Palace" is a bit more succinct than that? That tells you everything you wrote in that sentence, and more, and more accurately. As I understand it, xG is really just shots stats, but it also takes into account the distance and angle from goal, i.e. the quality of the chance. I think that's more helpful than shots/shots on target stats. Your team might be taking desperate pot shots from 40 yards out all game, while the opposition create several well-worked tap-in opportunities. Simple shots stats wouldn't tell the whole story. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super_horns Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 7 hours ago, OntarioFox said: Would be great, but unfortunately I don't see Watford putting any sort of run together, unless @Super_horns signs a deal with the devil that declares the town to be a London suburb. Beat Burnley and Leeds and I think we're out of the picture. The problem is, I don't think any of us are confident that we'll come away from those games without dropping at least 3 points. No - we seem to bottle the winnable home games - still have Leeds ,Brentford, Burnley and Everton to come. Nice easy away games at Man C/ United/Wolves /Southampton/Liverpool and Chelsea too. No problem ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nalis Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Just now, Super_horns said: No - we seem to bottle the winnable home games - still have Leeds ,Brentford, Burnley and Everton to come. Nice easy away games at Man C/ United/Wolves /Southampton/Liverpool and Chelsea too. No problem ! According to some you'll be level with us on points in 3 games time anyway so I wouldnt worry too much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super_horns Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 11 minutes ago, Nalis said: According to some you'll be level with us on points in 3 games time anyway so I wouldnt worry too much about it. Hmm.. I’d take 3 points from Man U,Arsenal and Wolves ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluefox1 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Wolves winning again 1-0 at arsenal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StanSP Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Thomas Partey loves a long shot doesn't he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxfanazer Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 6 minutes ago, StanSP said: Thomas Partey loves a long shot doesn't he Is that what they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom27111 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 G'won Wolves! As it stands, a point ahead of West Ham, with a game in hand. But West Ham are having such an incredible season Anyone breaking the top 4/6 is good for football, even if not for us. Good luck @The Bear If we can't come fourth, I hope you can. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staff Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 4 hours ago, st albans fox said: He isn’t domicile here anyway He is owed money by the club - I can’t see the govt deciding to seize his debt ! I also can’t see them seizing his assets Wish they would though 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goody2028 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 How the fvck does Xhaxa still play for Arsenal. He’s wank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom27111 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 16 minutes ago, tom27111 said: G'won Wolves! As it stands, a point ahead of West Ham, with a game in hand. But West Ham are having such an incredible season Anyone breaking the top 4/6 is good for football, even if not for us. Good luck @The Bear If we can't come fourth, I hope you can. I should've kept my mouth shut, however, my point still stands. Anything to disrupt the so called 'big 6' is good in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishfoxkev Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Late late goal for Gunners ....theb2nd half was a good watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishfoxkev Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Arsenal players and fans celebrating like they did back in 2016 against us....look out for the selfies from the changing room 😂😂 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Fresh Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Just now, tom27111 said: I should've kept my mouth shut, however, my point still stands. Anything to disrupt the so called 'big 6' is good in my eyes. If we were in the Championship I'd agree, but we aren't and clubs like Wolves and West Ham will be in similar markets to us. The big 6 will be able to attract and afford a standard of player regardless of league position, where as European football gives Wolves and West Ham an advantage over ourselves. Aware you mentioned it wasn't actually good for us, I must be more selfish 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 1 minute ago, irishfoxkev said: Arsenal players and fans celebrating like they did back in 2016 against us....look out for the selfies from the changing room 😂😂 Getting fourth for them is a big deal… strange because they use to complain about wenger just going for fourth… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom27111 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Tommy Fresh said: If we were in the Championship I'd agree, but we aren't and clubs like Wolves and West Ham will be in similar markets to us. The big 6 will be able to attract and afford a standard of player regardless of league position, where as European football gives Wolves and West Ham an advantage over ourselves. Aware you mentioned it wasn't actually good for us, I must be more selfish 😂 Yeah, that's what I was getting at by saying it wasn't good for us, but if the 'big 6' are knocked down a peg or two, it'll make the game better for everyone. Short term, Wolves making the top 4 wouldn't be good for us, long term, it would be. Starve the so called bigger clubs, their income goes down and it becomes a more level playing field. Almost everyone in the world became a Leicester fan in 2016, as long as you weren't from North London. Not quite the same with someone else pushing for 4th place, but disrupting the hierarchy is a good thing in my mind. Edited 24 February 2022 by tom27111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bear Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Jinxed us didn't you Tom!! I was out tonight but apparently we played ok up until we grabbed the goal then just camped in our own half and was shit. You can't play like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom27111 Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Just now, The Bear said: Jinxed us didn't you Tom!! I was out tonight but apparently we played ok up until we grabbed the goal then just camped in our own half and was shit. You can't play like that. Sorry! I was trying to be nice and I'm hoping you nick 4th place. I'll keep it to myself from now on. But genuinely, best wishes for the rest of the season, and as I said, anyone disrupting the 'elite' is a good thing in my book Hopefully not West Ham though...the bubbles are weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebfromgrebland Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 48 minutes ago, irishfoxkev said: Arsenal players and fans celebrating like they did back in 2016 against us....look out for the selfies from the changing room 😂😂 At least they have things to cheer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NasPb Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 Hope arsenal don't make top 4 don't deserve anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingkisnorbo Posted 24 February 2022 Share Posted 24 February 2022 1 hour ago, irishfoxkev said: Arsenal players and fans celebrating like they did back in 2016 against us....look out for the selfies from the changing room 😂😂 Team scores 95th minute winner and celebrate more than usual. Shock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsr-burnley Posted 25 February 2022 Share Posted 25 February 2022 6 hours ago, Raw Dykes said: Apart from anything else, do you not think "Watford (1.68) 1-4 (0.74) C Palace" is a bit more succinct than that? That tells you everything you wrote in that sentence, and more, and more accurately. As I understand it, xG is really just shots stats, but it also takes into account the distance and angle from goal, i.e. the quality of the chance. I think that's more helpful than shots/shots on target stats. Your team might be taking desperate pot shots from 40 yards out all game, while the opposition create several well-worked tap-in opportunities. Simple shots stats wouldn't tell the whole story. XG has its uses, but it also needs taking with a large pinch of salt. For example, Man U 3 Burnley 1 earlier this season, xG was Man U 1.81 Burnley 0.87. The problem being that 0.58 of Man U's score was not generated by anything they did, but by something the Burnley keeper did. McTominey put in a fantastic shot from outside the box, xG 0.05. If it had gone in, the final "score" would have been Man U 1.23 Burnley 0.87, a close-ish game. But Hennessey in the nets pulled off a world class save, the ball hit the post, and bounced back to Ronaldo in front of goal who tapped it in. Add 0.58 to the score because of the Hennessey save. Did the Hennessey save really make Man U's perfornance better by half? Of course not. xG is misleading for that sort of thing. You get the same effect if a forward fluffs a penalty but puts in the rebound. A team that scores a penalty has xG about 0.8, a team that misses a penalty can have a much higher xG especially if the ball pings about a bit before going in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts