Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
davieG

Premier League 2021/22 Thread

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

XG has its uses, but it also needs taking with a large pinch of salt. 

 

For example, Man U 3 Burnley 1 earlier this season, xG was Man U 1.81 Burnley 0.87.  The problem being that 0.58 of Man U's score was not generated by anything they did, but by something the Burnley keeper did.  McTominey put in a fantastic shot from outside the box, xG 0.05.  If it had gone in, the final "score" would have been Man U 1.23 Burnley 0.87, a close-ish game.  But Hennessey in the nets pulled off a world class save, the ball hit the post, and bounced back to Ronaldo in front of goal who tapped it in.  Add 0.58 to the score because of the Hennessey save.

 

Did the Hennessey save really make Man U's perfornance better by half?  Of course not.  xG is misleading for that sort of thing.  You get the same effect if a forward fluffs a penalty but puts in the rebound.  A team that scores a penalty has xG about 0.8, a team that misses a penalty can have a much higher xG especially if the ball pings about a bit before going in.

That’s the type of labored analysis we used to do to defend xG. Now it takes a lot of work to advance an anti-xG agenda. :P

 

xG was always more meaningful over a longer sample size, so I am not arguing that it explains this or any other single match. But it is such a useful shorthand for more/better or less/worse chances.  And over a goodly chunk of a season, it’s usually dead on.

 

btw, our xG over this PL season has been hideous and we have fallen to a club ranking not seen since late Puel…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Nicolo Barella said:

If Leeds are relegated and we don't sign Raphinha, Congerton wasn't the problem

I hope we go for him but I think there will be a lot of interest, including abroad too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

Don't understand posts like this, Saints took a few hammerings in last few years but have always been a decent Prem side 

 

I'm confused.

 

Why write "whisper it quietly"?

 

What is a whisper, if not quiet?

 

Or have I been missing people going for loud whispers....

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...