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weller54

Tottenham next up (H). Postponed

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1 hour ago, phoneticerror said:

There is no evidence that Omicron is more deadly. 

 A virus is a lifeform and its purpose is to procreate, killing its host is not in its best interests, prolonging infection and so increasing the chances of spreading is.

Death is perversely an unintended consequence.

The rest is just maths, if the rate of infection of Omicron is say 10x higher than Delta but the fatality is say ½ that of Delta that still tragically equates to vastly more deaths.

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5 minutes ago, J. James said:

 A virus is a lifeform and its purpose is to procreate, killing its host is not in its best interests, prolonging infection and so increasing the chances of spreading is.

Death is perversely an unintended consequence.

The rest is just maths, if the rate of infection of Omicron is say 10x higher than Delta but the fatality is say ½ that of Delta that still tragically equates to vastly more deaths.

Typically in doing so, the virus variants that become more transmissible also become weaker. 

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16 minutes ago, phoneticerror said:

Typically in doing so, the virus variants that become more transmissible also become weaker. 

Yes but not necessarily less deadly, less deadly on an individual level maybe but if you have a much greater chance of contracting it you have a greater chance of it killing you overall.

i.e a highly deadly disease has no chance of killing you if you dont contract it but a mildly fatal disease has a small chance of killing you if you do.

So a disease that you are ten times more likely to contract but is only half as likely to kill you is still more deadly overall.

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9 minutes ago, J. James said:

Yes but not necessarily less deadly, less deadly on an individual level maybe but if you have a much greater chance of contracting it you have a greater chance of it killing you overall.

i.e a highly deadly disease has no chance of killing you if you dont contract it but a mildly fatal disease has a small chance of killing you if you do.

So a disease that you are ten times more likely to contract but is only half as likely to kill you is still more deadly overall.

Where has it been reported that Omicron is 10 times more transmissible? 

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2 hours ago, phoneticerror said:

Where has it been reported that Omicron is 10 times more transmissible? 

It hasn't and i did not mean this figure literally just as an illustration of the maths, however it has been suggested by various eminent specialists that we could soon see one MILLION people a day infected!

Scary sh*t man.

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7 minutes ago, J. James said:

It hasn't and i did not mean this figure literally just as an illustration of the maths, however it has been suggested by various eminent specialists that we could soon see one MILLION people a day infected!

Scary sh*t man.

Scary, but not the most relevant statistic.

 

The graphs show that loads of people are being affected again, but the ones showing hospitalisations and deaths are still way down on the previous peaks. That suggests something is different this time - namely vaccinations.

 

We only need to worry when hospitalisations and deaths start matching those seen in previously waves. Otherwise letting the Omicron variant run through the population isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The truth is we don’t know yet. 
 

We need to get to the point eventually where a positive test for Covid is no more likely to stop activity than a positive test for a cold. Because one thing for sure is that it’s not likely to ever go away. 

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43 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

Scary, but not the most relevant statistic.

 

The graphs show that loads of people are being affected again, but the ones showing hospitalisations and deaths are still way down on the previous peaks. That suggests something is different this time - namely vaccinations.

 

We only need to worry when hospitalisations and deaths start matching those seen in previously waves. Otherwise letting the Omicron variant run through the population isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The truth is we don’t know yet. 
 

We need to get to the point eventually where a positive test for Covid is no more likely to stop activity than a positive test for a cold. Because one thing for sure is that it’s not likely to ever go away. 

Hopefully the vaccines will keep hospitalisations and deaths relatively low but they lag cases by on average two weeks. As the omicron cases have only just started to ramp up it is too early to  make judgements just yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Supergray22 said:

Hopefully the vaccines will keep hospitalisations and deaths relatively low but they lag cases by on average two weeks. As the omicron cases have only just started to ramp up it is too early to  make judgements just yet. 

Yes, exactly that. People are right to be cautious but, equally, it's not yet the right time to be panicking and calling for further lockdowns. 

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