Ukraine

[Leicesterpool]

So were send long range missiles to Ukraine... yes very clever to announce that Russia will be pleased to know that's coming their way 

 

I swear our gourvement are wanting to take us into war.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Leicesterpool said:

So were send long range missiles to Ukraine... yes very clever to announce that Russia will be pleased to know that's coming their way 

 

I swear our gourvement are wanting to take us into war.

Well, they're going to find out one way or another anyway?

[Leicesterpool]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Well, they're going to find out one way or another anyway?

Maybe not, deny all responsibility send it to Ukraine in box marked "from a friend". No proof it came from the UK.  

[MPH]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I think the potency of that message with the American public could vary wildly given what the strategic situation is at that time, tbh.

 

Anyhow, on the general topic, I'm glad the Ukrainians are getting better tools to push the Russians back, but they might want to be a little careful how they use them, because they can't liberate their homeland if there's no homeland to liberate. What's happening now pushes the chances of success up, but with that increased chance comes a matching increased chance of things going in a horrible direction too.

 

well let’s face it Trump got elected on a campaign of fear and stoked up a bit more of it during his presidency… 

 

 

but I’ll be honest, anyone who can bring an end to this war ( on Ukraine’s terms) will get kudos points for me.

 

 

it’s the ‘On Ukranian terms’ that’s the massive sleeping policeman though isn’t it…

[FoyleFox]

6 minutes ago, Leicesterpool said:

Maybe not, deny all responsibility send it to Ukraine in box marked "from a friend". No proof it came from the UK.  

Apart from the postmark...

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, Leicesterpool said:

Maybe not, deny all responsibility send it to Ukraine in box marked "from a friend". No proof it came from the UK.  

Unless there is another country that makes the exact same weapon to the exact same specs, that the UK would be willing to sell down the river by implicating them, the moment the Russians capture one in one piece or in pieces, or even get a decent quality photo or video of one coming in, jig is up.

 

Much better to be open with it now.

 

7 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

well let’s face it Trump got elected on a campaign of fear and stoked up a bit more of it during his presidency… 

 

 

but I’ll be honest, anyone who can bring an end to this war ( on Ukraine’s terms) will get kudos points for me.

 

 

it’s the ‘On Ukranian terms’ that’s the massive sleeping policeman though isn’t it…

As you say, it's the last paragraph that will the really tricky part, and one that Trump will have zero skill or inclination to solve. And if Trump is the Repub nominee and the Dems are in any way smart, they'll be using that as a keystone of their campaign.

Edited 11 May 2023 by leicsmac

[Zear0]

Just now, FoyleFox said:

Apart from the postmark...

It's ok, I think they're manufactured in France...

[Leicesterpool]

1 minute ago, FoyleFox said:

Apart from the postmark...

Amazon  

[turlo]

27 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

That's 300km from it's aircraft launchpad and Polish technicians have modified su 24 bombers to carry them. Hope they don't start striking Moscow or that really will be nuclear retaliation.

There will be strict rules in place to only use within Ukraines terrotary and the export version of the storm shadow might be modified to have shorter range. That doesn't stop Russia staging a false flag attack on its own terrotary and planting some recovered parts there to blame Ukraine, which is something they've been doing in Donbas for the last 8 years. Will be interesting how the Russian air defence deals with them as well.  

[yorkie1999]

30 minutes ago, turlo said:

There will be strict rules in place to only use within Ukraines terrotary and the export version of the storm shadow might be modified to have shorter range. That doesn't stop Russia staging a false flag attack on its own terrotary and planting some recovered parts there to blame Ukraine, which is something they've been doing in Donbas for the last 8 years. Will be interesting how the Russian air defence deals with them as well.  

The blaming Ukraine isn't really of interest to me,  the "adequate response will be required"  is. 

[Lionator]

If Ukranian military do use them to strike Russian territory then they only have themselves to blame for the consequences. 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Lionator said:

If Ukranian military do use them to strike Russian territory then they only have themselves to blame for the consequences. 

One would hope that pragmatism would override emotive stupidity in this case.

[foxy boxing]

11 minutes ago, Lionator said:

If Ukranian military do use them to strike Russian territory then they only have themselves to blame for the consequences. 

Ukraine has every right to hit targets inside Russia, the Russian public should suffer the upmost consequences of Putins actions. They rose up to get rid of the Tsar they should do so for Putin. The best thing for Ukraine and the west is if civil war breaks out in Russia, highly unlikely with Putins iron grip on the country. The west will mostly have to wait till he dies.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

Ukraine has every right to hit targets inside Russia, the Russian public should suffer the upmost consequences of Putins actions. They rose up to get rid of the Tsar they should do so for Putin. The best thing for Ukraine and the west is if civil war breaks out in Russia, highly unlikely with Putins iron grip on the country. The west will mostly have to wait till he dies.

Idealistically, this is true.

 

Realistically, the only consequence will be a withering response from Russia, perhaps likely involving weapons of mass destruction that will then escalate catastrophically for the Ukrainians, and possibly for everyone else.

[Salisbury Fox]

4 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

Ukraine has every right to hit targets inside Russia, the Russian public should suffer the upmost consequences of Putins actions. They rose up to get rid of the Tsar they should do so for Putin. The best thing for Ukraine and the west is if civil war breaks out in Russia, highly unlikely with Putins iron grip on the country. The west will mostly have to wait till he dies.

I think you are underestimating how indoctrinated the Russian public are.  It would more likely lead to further volunteers to the war effort than to press for the end of the war. It would be exactly what Putin wants when you look at how he has framed his Victory Day speech.

[Lionator]

26 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

Ukraine has every right to hit targets inside Russia, the Russian public should suffer the upmost consequences of Putins actions. They rose up to get rid of the Tsar they should do so for Putin. The best thing for Ukraine and the west is if civil war breaks out in Russia, highly unlikely with Putins iron grip on the country. The west will mostly have to wait till he dies.

I don’t think I could disagree with this more. Civil war in Russia would be an absolute disaster for everyone (imagine people like Kadyrov fighting for access to nukes). The current best case scenario is close to what’s happening now, Russia greatly depleted as a client state of China. 

And as for the Russian citizens having to suffer, I actually don’t agree at all. They have zero power, they go to prison if they rise. 

[Salisbury Fox]

1 hour ago, Leicesterpool said:

So were send long range missiles to Ukraine... yes very clever to announce that Russia will be pleased to know that's coming their way 

 

I swear our gourvement are wanting to take us into war.

I think you will find that the missiles have already been sent as there has been work to incorporate them onto Soviet era jets by Polish engineers reported back in Oct last year.

[MPH]

25 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I don’t think I could disagree with this more. Civil war in Russia would be an absolute disaster for everyone (imagine people like Kadyrov fighting for access to nukes). The current best case scenario is close to what’s happening now, Russia greatly depleted as a client state of China. 

And as for the Russian citizens having to suffer, I actually don’t agree at all. They have zero power, they go to prison if they rise. 

 

ive said it before but the United States have played a blinder here. A much depleted enemy and for  a small fraction of the cost of  the war in Afghanistan.

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

ive said it before but the United States have played a blinder here. A much depleted enemy and for  a small fraction of the cost of  the war in Afghanistan.

The Chinese will be happy with the way that things are playing out, too.

[MPH]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

The Chinese will be happy with the way that things are playing out, too.

 

I agree. And it will be interesting to see if the United States feel like they have developed a new tactic here..  they’ll probably want to get the Ukraine war wrapped up (  I’m beginning to think they’ll send f16s soon) and move on and try and do the same to China RE Taiwan. slightly different scenario with an Ocean border but I don’t think China will think twice about dropping 1 million troops  Taiwans way..

[BKLFox]

26 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

Ukraine has every right to hit targets inside Russia, the Russian public should suffer the upmost consequences of Putins actions. They rose up to get rid of the Tsar they should do so for Putin. The best thing for Ukraine and the west is if civil war breaks out in Russia, highly unlikely with Putins iron grip on the country. The west will mostly have to wait till he dies.

Moral & Ethical rules even within a war setting, if they start firing missiles into Russia they become an aggressor & will open themselves up to 'larger' weapons raining down on them & could subsequently also lose the support of their current 'allies'.
Gulf War Mk1 The American's wanted to continue to roll into Iraq & defeat Saddam after Kuwait was liberated the British said no otherwise again you become the aggressor to that country & it opens up pandora's box to Iraq / religious allies.
Falklands there was no direct missile strikes into main land Argentina, there were SF type operational plans looked at but these were aborted due to distance & a lack of intelligence on the targets.
Whilst still a grey area these SF style operations are deemed ok as they are selected military targets; Airfields, supply depots, field command posts & are designed to disable that 'targets main military function' only but not to cause mass casualties & are especially not to interfere with civilian infrastructure or population.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

I agree. And it will be interesting to see if the United States feel like they have developed a new tactic here..  they’ll probably want to get the Ukraine war wrapped up (  I’m beginning to think they’ll send f16s soon) and move on and try and do the same to China RE Taiwan. slightly different scenario with an Ocean border but I don’t think China will think twice about dropping 1 million troops  Taiwans way..

I don't think they'd want to push things too much in that regard - the Americans know if the Chinese did decide to try to take Taiwan, they're honourbound to defend it with their own forces, which would result in direct conflict between them and China. Which would lead nowhere good. So it's a little different. They also know that they can't really isolate the Chinese economically in a similar way that they're trying with the Russians.

 

I think there will continue to just be a diplomatic dance on that score, which is fine.

[Zear0]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I don't think they'd want to push things too much in that regard - the Americans know if the Chinese did decide to try to take Taiwan, they're honourbound to defend it with their own forces, which would result in direct conflict between them and China. Which would lead nowhere good. So it's a little different. They also know that they can't really isolate the Chinese economically in a similar way that they're trying with the Russians.

 

I think there will continue to just be a diplomatic dance on that score, which is fine.

Not sure about the above part.  The Chinese are net importers of food and energy and from listening to far more knowledgeable people than myself, it sounds like equivalent sanctions would be significantly more damaging to the Chinese than they have been to the Russians.  Explains Xi gleefully getting some new gas pipelines into Russia recently.

[MPH]

7 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Not sure about the above part.  The Chinese are net importers of food and energy and from listening to far more knowledgeable people than myself, it sounds like equivalent sanctions would be significantly more damaging to the Chinese than they have been to the Russians.  Explains Xi gleefully getting some new gas pipelines into Russia recently.

 

 

which could get accidentally damaged 

[ClaphamFox]

2 hours ago, Leicesterpool said:

So were send long range missiles to Ukraine... yes very clever to announce that Russia will be pleased to know that's coming their way 

 

I swear our gourvement are wanting to take us into war.

I live near the Brize Norton RAF base and there has been a very noticeable increase in flights arriving and departing over the past few weeks. It has prompted a lot of speculation locally. Maybe these long-range missiles are already being sent over...