Ukraine

[leicsmac]

31 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Not sure about the above part.  The Chinese are net importers of food and energy and from listening to far more knowledgeable people than myself, it sounds like equivalent sanctions would be significantly more damaging to the Chinese than they have been to the Russians.  Explains Xi gleefully getting some new gas pipelines into Russia recently.

Interesting.

 

I would think that they are too economically big and diversified in too many areas like Africa and Latin America to corral so easily, but who knows? Here's hoping we never have to find out.

[MPH]

It’s also worth considering how much WE depend on China with some of the imports we get from them… they’re retaliate with sanctions  and We’d get hit hard.

[yorkie1999]

10 minutes ago, MPH said:

It’s also worth considering how much WE depend on China with some of the imports we get from them… they’re retaliate with sanctions  and We’d get hit hard.

Whilst also considering how much China depends on western economies to purchase their exports.

[leicsmac]

If things got nasty between the US and China, I really wouldn't want to put money on which markets would get hurt more, but rather on the certainty that everyone involved would get hurt a lot.

[MPH]

39 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Whilst also considering how much China depends on western economies to purchase their exports.

 

well that was already mentioned of course… but something simple like iphones -about 90% of them are made in China, I think and that’s just one product of course. Russia doesn’t really have anything proprietary that it supplies to Europe/U.S . A lot of oil maybe but we’re still buying that..

[yorkie1999]

38 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

well that was already mentioned of course… but something simple like iphones -about 90% of them are made in China, I think and that’s just one product of course. Russia doesn’t really have anything proprietary that it supplies to Europe/U.S . A lot of oil maybe but we’re still buying that..

Although they're made in china, they're not chinese, most of the products we buy, or want to buy, from China are western companies products manufactured in china due to cheap labour costs and a huge market, the chinese are not going to sanction western countries because is just not in their interest to do so, their economy has been built on manufacturing western products. A company like Apple, and it's the name you're buying,  could very easily move their entire chinese operation to another cheap labour country and still not lose out on eastern markets because they want western branded goods. The majority of products are produced on automated production lines anyway, so the actual labour cost is negligiable. 

[fox_up_north]

There is evidence that some companies will be/ are starting to move away from manufacturing in China and back towards South America or other areas. 

 

Or, you know, we could just only buy 1 iphone every 5 years? My apple laptop is 9 years old. It still works. 

[MPH]

4 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Although they're made in china, they're not chinese, most of the products we buy, or want to buy, from China are western companies products manufactured in china due to cheap labour costs and a huge market, the chinese are not going to sanction western countries because is just not in their interest to do so, their economy has been built on manufacturing western products. A company like Apple, and it's the name you're buying,  could very easily move their entire chinese operation to another cheap labour country and still not lose out on eastern markets because they want western branded goods. The majority of products are produced on automated production lines anyway, so the actual labour cost is negligiable. 

 

China are not going to sanction western countries because it’s not in their interests to do so? We are talking about tit for tat sanctions in place during a war. It wasn’t in  Russias best interests to lay all the sanctions  on EU countries and the U.S or limit their gas supplies  in retaliation but they did. 
 

it’s madness to think in the backdrop of war that we would sanction them and they wouldn’t respond.

 

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, MPH said:

 

China are not going to sanction western countries because it’s not in their interests to do so? We are talking about tit for tat sanctions in place during a war. It wasn’t in  Russias best interests to lay all the sanctions  on EU countries and the U.S or limit their gas supplies  in retaliation but they did. 
 

it’s madness to think in the backdrop of war that we would sanction them and they wouldn’t respond.

 

Quite.

 

And the West underestimates China at it's peril. Like I said above, everyone would get hurt. But then thankfully I think everyone with power knows that so they may be sensible about it all....hopefully.

[Captain...]

The most interesting thing about the long range missile agreement is that they are only allowed to use them on Ukraine sovereign areas, which includes Crimes.

 

I don't know how much of a game changer these missiles will be, they can't be used on any targets in Russia but they will be able to hit the supply lines deeper in occupied territory, and target Crimea.

[bmt]

22 hours ago, leicsmac said:

If things got nasty between the US and China, I really wouldn't want to put money on which markets would get hurt more, but rather on the certainty that everyone involved would get hurt a lot.

Interestingly a lot of Chinese tech companies (eg Tencent) use a share structure (called VIE) which means the shares for sale in Western markets aren't actual shares with voting rights in the chinese companies. If China wanted to they could make that share structure illegal and wipe off trillions of pounds of western investment money immediately. Although I agree with your point, would be carnage all round.

[marbles]

Another “advanced” weapon gets spanked

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-tried-to-destroy-us-made-patriot-system-in-ukraine-officials-say/ar-AA1b7gSB?OCID=ansmsnnews11

[Innovindil]

1 hour ago, marbles said:

Another “advanced” weapon gets spanked

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-tried-to-destroy-us-made-patriot-system-in-ukraine-officials-say/ar-AA1b7gSB?OCID=ansmsnnews11

Attacking an anti missile system with missiles might be the best bit of banter to come out of this war so far tbh. 

[Countryfox]

On 12/05/2023 at 09:45, Captain... said:

The most interesting thing about the long range missile agreement is that they are only allowed to use them on Ukraine sovereign areas, which includes Crimes.

 

I don't know how much of a game changer these missiles will be, they can't be used on any targets in Russia but they will be able to hit the supply lines deeper in occupied territory, and target Crimea.

And that’s the rub ..  one place the Ruskies really really don’t want to lose is Crimea ..  and until the war is over the Ukrainians can target it at will ..  what right minded oligarch would like to spend most of his holiday in a bomb shelter.  This is a massive game changer. 

[MPH]

3 hours ago, Countryfox said:

And that’s the rub ..  one place the Ruskies really really don’t want to lose is Crimea ..  and until the war is over the Ukrainians can target it at will ..  what right minded oligarch would like to spend most of his holiday in a bomb shelter.  This is a massive game changer. 

 

Crimea is the area they’d least like to lose but by far the most difficult to defend. Problems in Donbas? Just dump more troops over the border. If the Ukrainians take out that bridge, which they are very capable of doing with the new shadows then they can only relie on the Black Sea flleet to reinforce and resupply which would also be reachable by the Shadows.

 

it could potentially turn into a disaster situation for Russia..

 

Both sides would lose a lot of troops but Russia could also lose Crimea.

Edited 13 May 2023 by MPH

[Dunge]

I wonder whether the western plan (not necessarily the Ukrainian plan) is to get Russia to the table to keep Crimea in exchange for all gains they’ve made in the conflict + EU or even NATO membership for Ukraine.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I wonder whether the western plan (not necessarily the Ukrainian plan) is to get Russia to the table to keep Crimea in exchange for all gains they’ve made in the conflict + EU or even NATO membership for Ukraine.

I said this a few months ago, I think - "a square deal for Crimea".

 

Of course, the Ukrainians will reject it out of hand at first as they want everything back. But I reckon they must also know that they're likely not getting it back the easy way and getting it back the hard way is going to cost a lot.

[MPH]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I said this a few months ago, I think - "a square deal for Crimea".

 

Of course, the Ukrainians will reject it out of hand at first as they want everything back. But I reckon they must also know that they're likely not getting it back the easy way and getting it back the hard way is going to cost a lot.

 

Personally I think getting the South, Crimea and NATO membership would be a cracking deal for them. Plus repair costs.

 

im not Ukranian though of course and I can understand why they would not want to cede even an inch of their land.

Edited 13 May 2023 by MPH

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Personally I think getting the South, Crimea and NATO membership would be a cracking deal for them. Plus repair costs.

 

im not Ukranian though of course and I can understand why they would not want to cede even an inch of their land.

I would agree.

[Captain...]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I said this a few months ago, I think - "a square deal for Crimea".

 

Of course, the Ukrainians will reject it out of hand at first as they want everything back. But I reckon they must also know that they're likely not getting it back the easy way and getting it back the hard way is going to cost a lot.

The other option is genuine referendums on self determination for the people in those regions. Only those who can prove they lived there before the invasions can vote. It would have to be UN sanctioned and verified. That seems the only way out. Russia's justifications have always been that the people of those regions are Russian and so they should belong to Russia. So stop killing each other and prove it beyond doubt.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Captain... said:

The other option is genuine referendums on self determination for the people in those regions. Only those who can prove they lived there before the invasions can vote. It would have to be UN sanctioned and verified. That seems the only way out. Russia's justifications have always been that the people of those regions are Russian and so they should belong to Russia. So stop killing each other and prove it beyond doubt.

In theory that would be plausible, but in practice I don't see an overseeing authority, even the UN, that both parties involved would trust enough for it to go ahead legit.

 

Or the Russians, knowing they'd likely lose, wouldn't let it go ahead for some made-up reason anyway.

[Captain...]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

In theory that would be plausible, but in practice I don't see an overseeing authority, even the UN, that both parties involved would trust enough for it to go ahead legit.

 

Or the Russians, knowing they'd likely lose, wouldn't let it go ahead for some made-up reason anyway.

It would give them an out though, they must be starting to realise they are just sending more and more men to die. They can then complain and moan about the UN and play the victim.

[MPH]

3 hours ago, Captain... said:

The other option is genuine referendums on self determination for the people in those regions. Only those who can prove they lived there before the invasions can vote. It would have to be UN sanctioned and verified. That seems the only way out. Russia's justifications have always been that the people of those regions are Russian and so they should belong to Russia. So stop killing each other and prove it beyond doubt.

 

main reasons I would be against this is because of the illegal deportation of Ukrainian loyalists going back to the 1940s by the Russian government in these specific areas. As well as them handing out Russian passports like confetti to anyone who wants one,  the Russian government sponsored  relocation of Russian nationals from Russia to same areas ..a referendum  would only show that Russia have been ‘ fixing’ the results of any vote for decades now.  
 

Edited 13 May 2023 by MPH

[Lionator]

Crimeans would probably vote to stay in Russia, whereas the Donbas regions would obviously stay in Ukraine. 
 

A realistic negotiation for Crimea would probably be Russian governed but a dual citizenship option ie N. Ireland and in return for Russian governance, complete demilitarisation. At the end of the day Turkey aren’t going to attack Crimea so there’s no need for any military to be there long term. 

Edited 13 May 2023 by Lionator

[MPH]

11 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Crimeans would probably vote to stay in Russia, whereas the Donbas regions would obviously stay in Ukraine. 
 

A realistic negotiation for Crimea would probably be Russian governed but a dual citizenship option ie N. Ireland and in return for Russian governance, complete demilitarisation. At the end of the day Turkey aren’t going to attack Crimea so there’s no need for any military to be there long term. 

 

Russia banished hundreds of thousands  of Crimean Tartas  loyal to their Ukranian identity from Crimea in the 1940s  under the guise of them being German sympathizers.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars  Russia have been actively relocating Russian citizens into Crimea in the last 20 years https://jamestown.org/program/demographic-transformation-of-crimea-forced-migration-as-part-of-russias-hybrid-strategy/  As well as handing out Russian passports to anyone seeking financial gain  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russian-passports-putins-secret-weapon-in-the-war-against-ukraine/( working for a Russian company in the area or abroad) and thus low and behold there’s a swell of ‘ Russian sympathy’ in the area.   So no, I don’t believe  it’s accurate to say Crimeans would vote to stay in Russia. Those that have been relocated by Russia to the area probably would but bare in mind those hundreds of thousand of Ukrainian Tartas removed from the land wouldn’t be able to vote.

 

 

Anything other than Full Ukranian Sovereignty in the area is unacceptable.

Edited 13 May 2023 by MPH