Ukraine

[Zear0]

1 hour ago, Captain... said:

From the Russian PoV this is about regime change. 

Combined with territorial conquest, mass child abduction to supplement an ailing population and wiping out a race of people they consider inferior. 

[MPH]

When even your Allies are complaining…

 

 

[leicsmac]

6 hours ago, murphy said:

It wasn't intended as a criticism. 

 

I was careful to use the word 'ostensibly' regarding the official line and that it might take a degree of cynicism to see through that is no bad thing.

 

 

It is 100% accurate to say that the weapons of mass destruction did not exist, but I don't think that anyone can say with certainty whether the US really did believe that there was a genuine threat, ie Dubya's "mushroom cloud over New York", or whether that was simply the disingenuous justification for more sinister motives.   

 

To expand on my original post, another of the key differences between Putin's invasion and the Iraq war was the reaction of the respective local populations... at least in the beginning.

 

I figured you didn't intend to criticise and your analysis here is salient IMO. I didn't take it as a criticism either, no worries.

 

On another note (nowt to do with this reply), I guess I'm leery of people making too much of a distinction between what's going on in Ukraine and other similar actions by the big players in the past and simply applying the "good guy-bad guy" dichotomy (usually along Cold War lines), as if taking over a country through offensive military action and imposing your will on it either by ideological transformation or by simple annihilation (as opposed to defensive military action where they attacked first) is ever OK no matter who is doing it and no matter the manner of its execution (because it always results in an inordinate level of death and suffering).

[fox_up_north]

I think it's fair to judge the actions, to an extent, as being similar but I wouldn't be convinced about the intent. There's also different forms of government at play. 

 

The west certainly wasn't "good guys" during Iraq and the Afghan pullout but they weren't universally derided by the people in those countries. I've had the good fortune of speaking to a Kurd and Kuwaiti immigrant, who both experienced Saddam's regime. They spoke positively of the west (Britain specifically). I doubt you'll find any Ukrainians happy with Russia. 

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

I think it's fair to judge the actions, to an extent, as being similar but I wouldn't be convinced about the intent. There's also different forms of government at play. 

 

The west certainly wasn't "good guys" during Iraq and the Afghan pullout but they weren't universally derided by the people in those countries. I've had the good fortune of speaking to a Kurd and Kuwaiti immigrant, who both experienced Saddam's regime. They spoke positively of the west (Britain specifically). I doubt you'll find any Ukrainians happy with Russia. 

Certainly, intent should be judged - but then one can never be sure about whether or not that stated intent is genuine or in fact just something entirely fabricated. Certainly no one with a modicum of sense believes Russia's "justification" for what they're up to now (and rightly so), I'm trying to think of a reason why the intent and reason of other parties that have done similar things should be trusted, too.

 

The will of the people within a nation of course also matters...however that can also be a pretty fluid and tenuous thing. Certainly Saddam was a despot in his own right, but there are plenty of those to go round and pardon me for thinking that toppling him was a lot more about material self-interest than "liberation of the people" or any other altruistic motive.

[Captain...]

7 hours ago, Zear0 said:

Combined with territorial conquest, mass child abduction to supplement an ailing population and wiping out a race of people they consider inferior. 

Sorry I should have said Russian People's PoV. They have been told this a special military operation to remove the Nazis in power in Ukraine, that they are dangerous and want to kill all Russians in Ukraine.

 

We know that's bullshit, but I wonder how many Iraqi and Afghan people would say the same about the motivations behind those conflicts. We were lied to about the reasons for going in to Iraq in the same why Russians are being lied to about the reasons for invading Ukraine.

[st albans fox]

will we see a dramatic change in the Ukrainian counter offensive (I would assume more tanks are imminent and when will some of those aircraft with  trained Ukrainian pilots be available ?) 

 

if we don’t then the end is surely in sight 

 

zelensky cannot take the risk of waiting for the us elections to play out and the republicans getting in - he needs to cut a deal before putin sees a political change which may encourage him to re calculate and revert to a long game 

 

I think we are in a period where both sides would seriously consider a deal rather than wait for things to worsen either way.  
 

My take has always been that crimea and most of the dombass will end up under Russian control. Russia will not willingly come away from this without a landbridge connection to crimea. This is the most difficult part of the negotiations. I don’t have a solution for it …….

[Zear0]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

will we see a dramatic change in the Ukrainian counter offensive (I would assume more tanks are imminent and when will some of those aircraft with  trained Ukrainian pilots be available ?) 

 

if we don’t then the end is surely in sight 

 

zelensky cannot take the risk of waiting for the us elections to play out and the republicans getting in - he needs to cut a deal before putin sees a political change which may encourage him to re calculate and revert to a long game 

 

I think we are in a period where both sides would seriously consider a deal rather than wait for things to worsen either way.  
 

My take has always been that crimea and most of the dombass will end up under Russian control. Russia will not willingly come away from this without a landbridge connection to crimea. This is the most difficult part of the negotiations. I don’t have a solution for it …….

There was an interesting take that the ISW put out in today's brief that I'd not really given much consideration to previously.

 

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2023

 

"A Russian milblogger stated that Russian defensive fortifications will not matter if Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses on Russian forces to the point that there are not enough Russian personnel to man the fortifications.[17] The milblogger also stated that the depth of Ukrainian advances into Russian defensive lines matters less than the degree to which the balance of forces has shifted to favor Ukraine during the course of the counteroffensive."

 

It does seem that the initial offensive was a bit overconfident and the Ukrainian's took a good whack and they've since changed tactics.  The above made me question the assumption that a slow war is a de-facto victory for Russia.  If Ukraine can demonstrate that they have sufficiently hammered the Russian forces it might buy them additional time for Western support without having to concede the current occupied territories.

 

Regarding the US position, if they do withdraw support due to Donald getting in, that might not even lead to negotiations as he'll pull the equipment and the Russians will go back to the initial plan to conquer the entire country.  Based on what I'm reading it does seem Ukraine have the momentum as the Russia forces have literally been on the front for months and it's unsustainable.  Whether a critical breakthrough can happen before winter arrives is another matter.

 

Guess these thoughts are why I think peace is miles away.  Ukraine think they can win currently and there's a good chance of this and why I don't agree he needs a deal before the next election.  Russia also think they can win if Western support fails and given they don't give a shit about the wellbeing of their troops or casualty rates, they'll drag it out.  Why would either compromise this position until next November?

[st albans fox]

43 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

There was an interesting take that the ISW put out in today's brief that I'd not really given much consideration to previously.

 

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2023

 

"A Russian milblogger stated that Russian defensive fortifications will not matter if Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses on Russian forces to the point that there are not enough Russian personnel to man the fortifications.[17] The milblogger also stated that the depth of Ukrainian advances into Russian defensive lines matters less than the degree to which the balance of forces has shifted to favor Ukraine during the course of the counteroffensive."

 

It does seem that the initial offensive was a bit overconfident and the Ukrainian's took a good whack and they've since changed tactics.  The above made me question the assumption that a slow war is a de-facto victory for Russia.  If Ukraine can demonstrate that they have sufficiently hammered the Russian forces it might buy them additional time for Western support without having to concede the current occupied territories.

 

Regarding the US position, if they do withdraw support due to Donald getting in, that might not even lead to negotiations as he'll pull the equipment and the Russians will go back to the initial plan to conquer the entire country.  Based on what I'm reading it does seem Ukraine have the momentum as the Russia forces have literally been on the front for months and it's unsustainable.  Whether a critical breakthrough can happen before winter arrives is another matter.

 

Guess these thoughts are why I think peace is miles away.  Ukraine think they can win currently and there's a good chance of this and why I don't agree he needs a deal before the next election.  Russia also think they can win if Western support fails and given they don't give a shit about the wellbeing of their troops or casualty rates, they'll drag it out.  Why would either compromise this position until next November?

Putin would end this tomorrow if he could extract a deal which he can sell as a clear positive 

once the direction of the next US election becomes clear, putin could decide to just stick it out. That’s why I think if ukraine fail to make marked inroads over the next six weeks, zelensky may decide the stakes may become too high if he delays negotiations much longer 

[Lionator]

5 hours ago, fox_up_north said:

I think it's fair to judge the actions, to an extent, as being similar but I wouldn't be convinced about the intent. There's also different forms of government at play. 

 

The west certainly wasn't "good guys" during Iraq and the Afghan pullout but they weren't universally derided by the people in those countries. I've had the good fortune of speaking to a Kurd and Kuwaiti immigrant, who both experienced Saddam's regime. They spoke positively of the west (Britain specifically). I doubt you'll find any Ukrainians happy with Russia. 

I think it's commonly accepted that overthrowing Saddam wasn't the crime, it was the complete absence of plan for what happened post Saddam, which left a massive power vaccum that ultimately led to years of suffering, bad-democracy and eventually the rise of ISIS. Rory Stewart talked about this a lot on the rest is politics podcast, he's still clearly furious about the decisions made around Iraq. 

[MPH]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

will we see a dramatic change in the Ukrainian counter offensive (I would assume more tanks are imminent and when will some of those aircraft with  trained Ukrainian pilots be available ?) 

 

if we don’t then the end is surely in sight 

 

zelensky cannot take the risk of waiting for the us elections to play out and the republicans getting in - he needs to cut a deal before putin sees a political change which may encourage him to re calculate and revert to a long game 

 

I think we are in a period where both sides would seriously consider a deal rather than wait for things to worsen either way.  
 

My take has always been that crimea and most of the dombass will end up under Russian control. Russia will not willingly come away from this without a landbridge connection to crimea. This is the most difficult part of the negotiations. I don’t have a solution for it …….

 

 

it would be a huge mistake for Ukraine to accept any kind of deal. Putin can not be trusted whatsoever. All that will happen is that they will regroup, resupply and attack again in a few months time. Russia have already repeatedly said Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign state… they can’t be clearer on their intentions… I mean… there was an agreement in place after 2014 stating they would never attack again and look where we are now..

Edited 30 July 2023 by MPH

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

 

 

it would be a huge mistake for Ukraine to accept any kind of deal. Putin can not be trusted whatsoever. All that will happen is that they will regroup, resupply and attack again in a few months time. Russia have already repeatedly said Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign state… they can’t be clearer on their intentions… I mean… there was an agreement in place after 2014 stating they would never attack again and look where we are now..

I hear you but they can’t just continue to fight because the west will at some point withdraw the levels of support they need. Unless putin is removed the Russians won’t withdraw. 
 

maybe there could some kind of defensive assistance treaty as part of an agreement. Not membership of nato but an equivalent arrangement which would be enforced (as opposed to the post nuclear weapon agreement which us and the French didn’t step up to) 

 

 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I hear you but they can’t just continue to fight because the west will at some point withdraw the levels of support they need. Unless putin is removed the Russians won’t withdraw. 
 

maybe there could some kind of defensive assistance treaty as part of an agreement. Not membership of nato but an equivalent arrangement which would be enforced (as opposed to the post nuclear weapon agreement which us and the French didn’t step up to) 

 

 

 

they’ve repeatedly said they will continue to fight wether they have the wests support or not. 
 

I will add, that if the United States withdraw their support, that doesn’t necessarily mean NATO and the EU will or should.  It will make the war longer, but they have every right to defend every ounce of their sovereign land.

 

 

And Even  if Russia takes  Ukraine. Do you honestly think  they will stop there?

 

 

im just shocked we still even having this discussion this far into the war bearing in mind all that Russian politicians have said..

[st albans fox]

11 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

they’ve repeatedly said they will continue to fight wether they have the wests support or not. 
 

I will add, that if the United States withdraw their support, that doesn’t necessarily mean NATO and the EU will or should.  It will make the war longer, but they have every right to defend every ounce of their sovereign land.

 

 

And Even  if Russia takes  Ukraine. Do you honestly think  they will stop there?

 

 

im just shocked we still even having this discussion this far into the war bearing in mind all that Russian politicians have said..

Why are you shocked ?  We were told that this wouldn’t be a quick conflict either way.  My point is that realpolitik means it won’t be allowed to continue like it is for a lot longer. if the US withdraws its weapons support then it’s over for Ukraine because the Europeans would recalibrate.. Zelensky has to make some tough calculated calls if he can’t force the Russians back over the next couple months …

I agree that if Russia took Ukraine then part of Moldova is likely to be next but I don’t believe that they have any interest in any other counties in Europe 

 

Life ain’t fair or just. . I’ve see a lot of sh1t over the years. We’ve done a good job to help the Ukrainians keep the vast majority of their land. Helpfully they can negotiate the return of further held areas in any settlement. But whilst putin is in charge they will not get back all their country. 

[leicsmac]

16 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

they’ve repeatedly said they will continue to fight wether they have the wests support or not. 
 

I will add, that if the United States withdraw their support, that doesn’t necessarily mean NATO and the EU will or should.  It will make the war longer, but they have every right to defend every ounce of their sovereign land.

 

 

And Even  if Russia takes  Ukraine. Do you honestly think  they will stop there?

 

 

im just shocked we still even having this discussion this far into the war bearing in mind all that Russian politicians have said..

Depends. Considering all the "next options" would likely be NATO members, how good are they at nuclear roulette, do you think?

 

All of this being true, what would be the ideal endgame here then? Ukraine gets Donbass + Crimea back? That would be ideal, but it might take continual favourable political conditions and it will take a while, no doubt.

[Countryfox]

Despite the rhetoric I can't see the West stopping their support for Ukraine any time soon.  The Russians are (or were before the rise of China) the arch enemy of the West and cause mayhem all over the world ... whether it be massive disruption in Africa causing death and famine, shooting civilian planes down, invading innocent countries so as to expand their empire, polling up wherever they want and using military grade poison to kill people (and anyone else that touches it), constantly buzzing defences and almost causing mid air collisions, to cyber interference that erodes the fabric of a country. And probably a lot more i can't remember or am even aware of ...

We are now eroding their power and drastically weakening them by depleting their armies, causing unrest against the dictator, and using sanctions to attack their economy ...  and we can maintain that by in effect writing out a cheque from our collective cheque books with not one drop of Western blood being spilt.  Putin must be stopped and made to think twice about carrying on in this fashion ..  this is our chance.   Then we can concentrate on China.  Personally I just want to help Ukraine get their land back and hopefully at some point hold Putin accountable.

 

[Zear0]

4 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

Despite the rhetoric I can't see the West stopping their support for Ukraine any time soon.  The Russians are (or were before the rise of China) the arch enemy of the West and cause mayhem all over the world ... whether it be massive disruption in Africa causing death and famine, shooting civilian planes down, invading innocent countries so as to expand their empire, polling up wherever they want and using military grade poison to kill people (and anyone else that touches it), constantly buzzing defences and almost causing mid air collisions, to cyber interference that erodes the fabric of a country. And probably a lot more i can't remember or am even aware of ...

We are now eroding their power and drastically weakening them by depleting their armies, causing unrest against the dictator, and using sanctions to attack their economy ...  and we can maintain that by in effect writing out a cheque from our collective cheque books with not one drop of Western blood being spilt.  Putin must be stopped and made to think twice about carrying on in this fashion ..  this is our chance.   Then we can concentrate on China.  Personally I just want to help Ukraine get their land back and hopefully at some point hold Putin accountable.

 

Quite. 

 

Macron was blunt when asked about threats from the east (China) and basically said "don't care, not our fight". Europe are focused on their only threat, Russia. Two ways for Europe to increase their relative security. Improve their own military or weaken Russia's. Europe will continue to arm Ukraine as it's in their interest to do so. 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

Despite the rhetoric I can't see the West stopping their support for Ukraine any time soon.  The Russians are (or were before the rise of China) the arch enemy of the West and cause mayhem all over the world ... whether it be massive disruption in Africa causing death and famine, shooting civilian planes down, invading innocent countries so as to expand their empire, polling up wherever they want and using military grade poison to kill people (and anyone else that touches it), constantly buzzing defences and almost causing mid air collisions, to cyber interference that erodes the fabric of a country. And probably a lot more i can't remember or am even aware of ...

We are now eroding their power and drastically weakening them by depleting their armies, causing unrest against the dictator, and using sanctions to attack their economy ...  and we can maintain that by in effect writing out a cheque from our collective cheque books with not one drop of Western blood being spilt.  Putin must be stopped and made to think twice about carrying on in this fashion ..  this is our chance.   Then we can concentrate on China.  Personally I just want to help Ukraine get their land back and hopefully at some point hold Putin accountable.

 

Scramble for Africa.

Iran Air Flight 655. (And from the other side, Korean Air flight 007 too).

Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, among others.

Agent Orange (unintentional, perhaps, but dead is dead.)

Stuxnet and PRISM.

 

These are games all the major players play.

 

Absolutely agree that kicking Russia out of Ukraine is best, but it really would be nice to not have to rehash the Cold War when there are so many other concerns, some of them much more pressing in terms of threat to life, meriting our attention as a species.

 

[Countryfox]

33 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Scramble for Africa.

Iran Air Flight 655. (And from the other side, Korean Air flight 007 too).

Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, among others.

Agent Orange (unintentional, perhaps, but dead is dead.)

Stuxnet and PRISM.

 

These are games all the major players play.

 

Absolutely agree that kicking Russia out of Ukraine is best, but it really would be nice to not have to rehash the Cold War when there are so many other concerns, some of them much more pressing in terms of threat to life, meriting our attention as a species.

 

How do you find time to eat and sleep in between all your posting Mac ..  

[Parafox]

2 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

How do you find time to eat and sleep in between all your posting Mac ..  

 

He's AI 

[MPH]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Depends. Considering all the "next options" would likely be NATO members, how good are they at nuclear roulette, do you think?

 

All of this being true, what would be the ideal endgame here then? Ukraine gets Donbass + Crimea back? That would be ideal, but it might take continual favourable political conditions and it will take a while, no doubt.

 

im sure you know that there’s more than one way to ‘wage war’  and to plot an enemies downfall 

Edited 30 July 2023 by MPH

[MPH]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Why are you shocked ?  We were told that this wouldn’t be a quick conflict either way.  My point is that realpolitik means it won’t be allowed to continue like it is for a lot longer. if the US withdraws its weapons support then it’s over for Ukraine because the Europeans would recalibrate.. Zelensky has to make some tough calculated calls if he can’t force the Russians back over the next couple months …

I agree that if Russia took Ukraine then part of Moldova is likely to be next but I don’t believe that they have any interest in any other counties in Europe 

 

Life ain’t fair or just. . I’ve see a lot of sh1t over the years. We’ve done a good job to help the Ukrainians keep the vast majority of their land. Helpfully they can negotiate the return of further held areas in any settlement. But whilst putin is in charge they will not get back all their country. 

I 100% disagree with this. Even without  U.S, the will for the Ukrainians to keep fighting  is stronger than you think and they have more than just the Americans supplying them with arms and weapons.

As a percentage of donor nations’ gross domestic product, the United States is roughly in the middle of the top 20 nations donating to Ukraine’s security assistance, the official said.

 

Spotlight: NATO

 

Finland, the newest NATO member, is one of the highest contributors to Ukraine, both in percentage of GDP and in total dollars spent on military assistance the official pointed out.
 

   even if the tide changes. And there is more of a defensive undertone, THere is still plenty of fight there with or without American support. you could even try and bring about regime change in Kiev,  but the fight will go on -admittedly more of an underground/ resistance  tone. With approximately 80% of the entire Ukranian population identifying as Ukranian With Russian speaking regions included in that) an influx of Russian troops and regime change won’t stop the fight..

 

 

However it is imperative for the Ukrainians to keep on the front foot, block the supply lines, stop resupply and the ability for the Russians to reinforce - they need to keep the momentum and backing off won’t do anything good for anyone other than Russia

Edited 30 July 2023 by MPH

[Spiritwalker]

It could be argued that for NATO and the West this war is playing out perfectly. The longer it drags on the

more Russia has its military and economy depleted and becomes weaker. Trump might be making noises 

about withdrawing support but I suspect US support will continue regardless of who is elected as the next

president.

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, Countryfox said:

How do you find time to eat and sleep in between all your posting Mac ..  

Practice.

 

8 hours ago, MPH said:

 

im sure you know that there’s more than one way to ‘wage war’  and to plot an enemies downfall 

Absolutely, but I'm pretty sure if Russia did want to really put the heat on NATO members, direct action would be needed, or at least action of a kind so devastating it could only be attributed to them, which would pretty much amount to the same thing and so the same overall outcome.

[Countryfox]

On 20/07/2023 at 06:25, Countryfox said:

Slightly worrying ..  Wagner troops building up in Belarus  ..  Lukashenko saying if needed Wagner will be called upon to help us ..  I think we are one false flag away from another major attack from the north.