Ukraine

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

I've come away from a few heads-up losses feeling so angry with myself that a nuclear strike on the table would have been preferable. 

You should have seen me after the two outer on the river tbh.

 

@Dunge can attest to that.

Edited 9 March 2022 by leicsmac

[Blarmy]

25 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I was referring more to the general attitude of NATO than this specific thing. On the face of it just supplying the jets doesn't seem too different from any other arms deal, as you say.

 

I'm thinking that when a possible consequence of "stopping a bully" by giving them a bloody nose is the loss of human civilisation itself, it might not be a bad idea to be a little risk averse.

 

It would be nice for the legacy of humanity to not be a hundred years of irradiated wasteland and "This is for my country..."

You misunderstand me. I’m not saying give the bully a bloody nose out of pride or anything like that, I’m saying sometimes it’s the best course of action in terms of reducing total damage caused to those being bullied. Taking action is sometimes the best thing to do, even from a pragmatic standpoint. 
 

I’ll caveat all that again - with this US/Polish plane thing, I’m not saying it was a good idea. Or a bad idea.  Fact is, I just don’t know - and I doubt anyone does.

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, Blarmy said:

You misunderstand me. I’m not saying give the bully a bloody nose out of pride or anything like that, I’m saying sometimes it’s the best course of action in terms of reducing total damage caused to those being bullied. Taking action is sometimes the best thing to do, even from a pragmatic standpoint. 
 

I’ll caveat all that again - with this US/Polish plane thing, I’m not saying it was a good idea. Or a bad idea.  Fact is, I just don’t know - and I doubt anyone does.

Absolutely.

 

However, looking at it purely from that perspective in terms of future harm, the risk of everything going horribly Pete Tong has to be pretty low to justify triggering conditions in which that risk becomes a factor, simply because of the sheer scale of the consequence.

[Dunge]

27 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

You should have seen me after the two outer on the river tbh.

 

@Dunge can attest to that.

Was that the time you prowled the dining room like a maniac missing his baseball bat?

If you want my help discussing your poker losses then you’ll need to narrow it down… 

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

I'm not sure if giving a handful of old Mig 29s is worth it. It doesn't strike me as something that would shift the balance of power very much while handing Putin something to call escalation. 

It shows that the west are willing to supply any level of defensive arms (away from missiles and nukes) to ukraine. If we back away from this plane deal then we show we aren’t willing to really face up to him when he makes threats  - I think that’s far more dangerous re what he may do with the Baltic states once the ukraine situation is settled with the separatist areas and crimea recognised as part of Russia. 

 

if we had responded with real gusto to his recognition of Luhansk and Donbas on the Tuesday a few weeks ago (as opposed to sanctioning a couple of  pguys who were already sanctioned by the states) then he may have thought twice about his initial invasion. 

[Countryfox]

I’m hoping that something is happening regarding giving them more hardware but we’re just not  letting everyone know about it ..    

 

We need to concentrate more on what is happening to these millions of Ukrainian people and not crapping our pants at what that piece of sh1t might do next. 

[Jon the Hat]

14 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

I’m hoping that something is happening regarding giving them more hardware but we’re just not  letting everyone know about it ..    

 

We need to concentrate more on what is happening to these millions of Ukrainian people and not crapping our pants at what that piece of sh1t might do next. 

Pretty much continuous deliveries apparently.  Anti tank and Anti Aircraft missiles mainly.

[Blarmy]

43 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Absolutely.

 

However, looking at it purely from that perspective in terms of future harm, the risk of everything going horribly Pete Tong has to be pretty low to justify triggering conditions in which that risk becomes a factor, simply because of the sheer scale of the consequence.

There is no however, as we don’t know the outcome of the decision.  It could be that not providing those planes has increased the likelihood of MAD occurring. You seem to have assumed that it has automatically reduced the chance.

 

I just hope the brains with all the intel are doing a good job. 

[leicsmac]

Just now, Blarmy said:

There is no however, as we don’t know the outcome of the decision.  It could be that not providing those planes has increased the likelihood of MAD occurring. You seem to have assumed that it has automatically reduced the chance.

 

I just hope the brains with all the intel are doing a good job. 

Yeah, I'm making the assumption it reduces the chance because it reduces (for now) the chance of a deadly encounter between Russian and Nato forces. I would think that is logical, but I might be wrong.

 

Totally agree with the second paragraph, you have to hope those with cooler heads are working towards something manageable right now.

[leicsmac]

"Gurin called on Western nations to recognise that "World War Three is already started", and urged the US to allow Poland to equip the Ukrainian Air Force with old MiG-29 fighter jets.

 

"The only question of when to join these forces is how many Ukrainians die and how many Ukrainians will die in a week," he argued.

 

"Great Britain remembers making this choice 80 years ago and we think its an important choice, not only for us, but for you and for your future"."

 

This is terrible. It's clear the guy is committed to his pathway, and it's a noble one, and help is needed. But what he wants and what he's asking for could very well end up killing him, everyone else he holds dear, and the people he asks to help him, and everyone *they* hold dear too. As well as the opposition.

 

There has to be a third option somewhere.

[westernpark]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

"Gurin called on Western nations to recognise that "World War Three is already started", and urged the US to allow Poland to equip the Ukrainian Air Force with old MiG-29 fighter jets.

 

"The only question of when to join these forces is how many Ukrainians die and how many Ukrainians will die in a week," he argued.

 

"Great Britain remembers making this choice 80 years ago and we think its an important choice, not only for us, but for you and for your future"."

 

This is terrible. It's clear the guy is committed to his pathway, and it's a noble one, and help is needed. But what he wants and what he's asking for could very well end up killing him, everyone else he holds dear, and the people he asks to help him, and everyone *they* hold dear too. As well as the opposition.

 

There has to be a third option somewhere.

This sort of rhetoric is understandable by Gurin, but under no circumstances should it be acted upon. 
The best thing we could do is speed up our processing of refugees. 
Sooner or later, Zelensky may need nudging by the West into negotiations. Russia are making noises every day regarding this, there have been subtle climb downs as well in their demands. I don’t believe Putin wants anywhere else, a neutral zone for world peace, seems like a small price. Albeit, it should be watched upon, but at the moment this is the best option. Of course despite all the bravado of our government, they will be doing different things. As we have found out since December 2019, what they say and actually do, are sometimes the complete opposite.

 

[LiberalFox]

40 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It shows that the west are willing to supply any level of defensive arms (away from missiles and nukes) to ukraine. If we back away from this plane deal then we show we aren’t willing to really face up to him when he makes threats  - I think that’s far more dangerous re what he may do with the Baltic states once the ukraine situation is settled with the separatist areas and crimea recognised as part of Russia. 

 

if we had responded with real gusto to his recognition of Luhansk and Donbas on the Tuesday a few weeks ago (as opposed to sanctioning a couple of  pguys who were already sanctioned by the states) then he may have thought twice about his initial invasion. 

Thing is, I'm skeptical that the Migs will actually give Ukraine much of a boost. It seems to have become a huge talking point and therefore by doing it could be seen as an escalation. That might mean a bit more popular support for the war in Russia leading to mobilisation for example. It's true that Russia is trying to fabricate excuses like weapons of mass destruction or finding "proof" that Ukraine was set to attack first but that's less believable than jets arriving in Ukraine. 

 

Ukraine is currently being supplied with 1000's of ATGMs/Rockets/RPGs, MANPADS as well as constant supplies of fuel and ammunition. In addition they are being fed intelligence updates from the AEW aircraft NATO is flying up and down the border and from Satellite and western spy networks. That's actually a lot 

 

Getting the Migs over to Ukraine shouldn't be too difficult, just invite Ukrainian pilots over who then fly them out of Poland to an airbase inside Ukraine and from there they do whatever they like.It's not really any different to supplying anything else, they wouldn't be armed on the transfer flight most likely. So there must be something about it that's causing hesitation. 

[st albans fox]

20 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Thing is, I'm skeptical that the Migs will actually give Ukraine much of a boost. It seems to have become a huge talking point and therefore by doing it could be seen as an escalation. That might mean a bit more popular support for the war in Russia leading to mobilisation for example. It's true that Russia is trying to fabricate excuses like weapons of mass destruction or finding "proof" that Ukraine was set to attack first but that's less believable than jets arriving in Ukraine. 

 

Ukraine is currently being supplied with 1000's of ATGMs/Rockets/RPGs, MANPADS as well as constant supplies of fuel and ammunition. In addition they are being fed intelligence updates from the AEW aircraft NATO is flying up and down the border and from Satellite and western spy networks. That's actually a lot 

 

Getting the Migs over to Ukraine shouldn't be too difficult, just invite Ukrainian pilots over who then fly them out of Poland to an airbase inside Ukraine and from there they do whatever they like.It's not really any different to supplying anything else, they wouldn't be armed on the transfer flight most likely. So there must be something about it that's causing hesitation. 

I dont expect they will make a big difference but it shows putin that we are prepared to arm the Ukrainians with stuff he won’t like.  It puts some doubts into his mind as to how far nato will go on a ‘defensive level’ to maintain Ukraine’s independence and therefore a buffer between Russia and e Europe 

 

at the moment, he is still calling the shots on the military level and we need to hit back on that without being directly involved 

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

It shows that the west are willing to supply any level of defensive arms (away from missiles and nukes) to ukraine. If we back away from this plane deal then we show we aren’t willing to really face up to him when he makes threats  - I think that’s far more dangerous re what he may do with the Baltic states once the ukraine situation is settled with the separatist areas and crimea recognised as part of Russia. 

 

if we had responded with real gusto to his recognition of Luhansk and Donbas on the Tuesday a few weeks ago (as opposed to sanctioning a couple of  pguys who were already sanctioned by the states) then he may have thought twice about his initial invasion. 

One does Not to Open up on any delivery...Deny any arms movement...

If UK, France,USA,Any other nation just send to neighbouring countries arms(planes), then Ukraine Picks them up...We Dont have to spread it over the media..

Deny it, Like the Russians deny every thing..!!!...Put doubts in their minds...

[nnfox]

1 minute ago, fuchsntf said:

One does Not to Open up on any delivery...Deny any arms movement...

If UK, France,USA,Any other nation just send to neighbouring countries arms(planes), then Ukraine Picks them up...We Dont have to spread it over the media..

Deny it, Like the Russians deny every thing..!!!...Put doubts in their minds...

I doubt either side base their tactical military response on media reports. 

[Blarmy]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, I'm making the assumption it reduces the chance because it reduces (for now) the chance of a deadly encounter between Russian and Nato forces. I would think that is logical, but I might be wrong.

 

Totally agree with the second paragraph, you have to hope those with cooler heads are working towards something manageable right now.

We don’t know, but Putin may well be seeing how much he can get away with before severe action is taken by the west. It is wrong to assume all non-escalatory decisions are the right ones. WW2 shows us this.

 

However, I truly hope you are right. 

Edited 9 March 2022 by Blarmy

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Blarmy said:

We don’t know, but Putin may well be seeing how much he can get away with before severe action is taken by the west. It is wrong to assume all non-escalatory decisions are the right ones. WW2 shows us this. 

TBH I would suggest that all modelling involving major powers in the present day based on actions and comparisons to before the principle of MAD was established are null and void, simply because that principle changes the concept of grand strategy and escalation so drastically. Having the ability to destroy your opponent if you are losing, no matter how badly, even at the cost of your own nation, is a massive change in terms of such theories and as such I think such historical comparisons are no longer valid. Much better to look at certain Cold War interactions.

[urban.spaceman]

Power’s off at Chernobyl reportedly. 

[Blarmy]

35 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

TBH I would suggest that all modelling involving major powers in the present day based on actions and comparisons to before the principle of MAD was established are null and void, simply because that principle changes the concept of grand strategy and escalation so drastically. Having the ability to destroy your opponent if you are losing, no matter how badly, even at the cost of your own nation, is a massive change in terms of such theories and as such I think such historical comparisons are no longer valid. Much better to look at certain Cold War interactions.

Yep, fair point. The basic human psychology is the same though.

[westernpark]

Israeli prime minister believes there has been a softening on both sides in negotiations. Maybe the Polish jets have been put on hold, to not escalate this critical stage in negotiations. The West should be really nudging Zelensky, whilst offering assurances that if terms were seriously violated they would provide support in the future. Whilst telling him he is a hero. 
Yesterday a Russian foreign minister envisaged future relations with the US and west akin to the Cold War. Russia knows it has ****ed up, militarily. Not to mention it’s war crimes. Let them back in their house to close the door and curtains. 
 

[SpacedX]

5 minutes ago, westernpark said:

Not to mention it’s war crimes. 

There has never been any recourse for Chechnya, Georgia and Syria. Regarding the current situation, it is my hope that the Generals committing these atrocities fear that they may be held accountable. Although history will stand as ample testimony and judgement for their actions, as you say, they are no more likely to be tried for murder than Anatoliy Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin once they retreat into the homeland. 

 

The reason that President Putin fears a similar fate to Saddam Hussein or Muammar al-Gaddafi (who remember authorised the use of live ammunition on his own people), is because he similarly has decades of blood on his hands. Cornered in his bunker like a rat in a hole, Adolf Hitler's greatest fear was a similar fate to Mussolini - humiliation, mutilation, desecration and the display of his corpse once if it were to fall into the hands of the Red Army. “I do not wish to fall into the hands of an enemy who requires a new spectacle organized by the Jews for the amusement of their hysterical masses.” Hypothetically, if he too had possessed nuclear capability, although it would have been deployed sooner, there's no doubt that he would have taken everyone out with him. 

 

Vladimir Putin will never experience a similar fate, nor will he stand trail for war crimes - but the very notion that he could, reportedly terrifies him and makes such a suggestion a highly dangerous one. In view of this, as opposed to talk of a Milošević' style arrest, extradition and trial at the Hague, the notion of carefully paving the 'Golden Bridge' back to the refuge of the Kremlin, as unjust as it may seem, is the safest course of action. 

[westernpark]

4 minutes ago, Line-X said:

There has never been any recourse for Chechnya, Georgia and Syria. Regarding the current situation, it is my hope that the Generals committing these atrocities fear that they may be held accountable. Although history will stand as ample testimony and judgement for their actions, as you say, they are no more likely to be tried for murder than Anatoliy Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin once they retreat into the homeland. 

 

The reason that President Putin fears a similar fate to Saddam Hussein or Muammar al-Gaddafi (who remember authorised the use of live ammunition on his own people), is because he similarly has decades of blood on his hands. Cornered in his bunker like a rat in a hole, Adolf Hitler's greatest fear was a similar fate to Mussolini - humiliation, mutilation, desecration and the display of his corpse once if it were to fall into the hands of the Red Army. “I do not wish to fall into the hands of an enemy who requires a new spectacle organized by the Jews for the amusement of their hysterical masses.” Hypothetically, if he too had possessed nuclear capability, although it would have been deployed sooner, there's no doubt that he would have taken everyone out with him. 

 

Vladimir Putin will never experience a similar fate, nor will he stand trail for war crimes - but the very notion that he could, reportedly terrifies him and makes such a suggestion a highly dangerous one. In view of this, as opposed to talk of a Milošević' style arrest, extradition and trial at the Hague, the notion of carefully paving the 'Golden Bridge' back to the refuge of the Kremlin, as unjust as it may seem, is the safest course of action. 

Yes the Gaddafi thing is correct. I think Sawers mentions it in his Oxford Union discussion.

For me the downfall of Putin in a rash and dramatic fashion equates to MAD. I simply cannot see another alternative. Recent article I have shared mentioned similar notions. 
I think the downing of MH17 will be an influence on much of Putins thinking. There has been no justice served, we were pathetic in our response. So pathetic, that I find it illogical and hypocritical that we are almost doing so much this time, in regard to aggravation. This is not discounting the evil that has been committed and is being committed currently. It just doesn’t equate when considering our behaviour in 2014.

[The Fox Covert]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Pretty much continuous deliveries apparently.  Anti tank and Anti Aircraft missiles mainly.

Watch Forces News YouTube channel. Ukraine has learned the lessons of 2014. They have received a steady flow of new military hardware and training and it shouldn't be a surprise that they have been able to inflict so much damage on a numerically superior adversary.

[fuchsntf]

2 hours ago, nnfox said:

I doubt either side base their tactical military response on media reports. 

No..But they use it...especially in their Media conferences...or how do we know..lies & trübes on what is happening.

This whole Topic is because what we know comes from all the angles from the media...

My Major point, Take und give the option, But deny fervently there was any delivery...and Ukraine must have had other unknown connections.

Build up other Personalities Play the Putin tactic.....Deny, deny & deny again &  also indirectly threaten,through various channels, that also makes & Leads

to Doubt in Everything Russian, especially Ivan suppreski , the Russian guy on the улица

 

[LiberalFox]

I hope Putin isn't managing to find weaknesses in the global response by targeting Turkey and Israel. Of course it's hard to know how authentic what is said in public by either side actually is.