st albans fox Posted 12 March 2022 Share Posted 12 March 2022 5 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said: Apparently the prevailing wind generally blows eastwards from Ukraine to Russia rather than towards Europe so any radiation would in theory blow back on their own population. Not for the next couple of weeks it doesn’t ………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westernpark Posted 12 March 2022 Share Posted 12 March 2022 2 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said: Apparently the prevailing wind generally blows eastwards from Ukraine to Russia rather than towards Europe so any radiation would in theory blow back on their own population. Yes it does. But it does change. No point in going further in this discussion, as if you believe he won’t then it’s the end of my point! I just feel we’ll see chemical weapons in the next week, then as a point to the West for our sanctions, he would be willing to go further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpacedX Posted 12 March 2022 Share Posted 12 March 2022 7 minutes ago, westernpark said: By deploying a nuclear weapon until they do. The assault on Kyiv will commence soon. This is the immediate objective whilst the fall of Odessa will cut off supplies from the Black Sea. Both cities will come at a huge cost to the Russian military. Tactical deployment of mini-nukes blur the line between conventional and non-conventional weapons, and the latter are a slippery slope into all out nuclear escalation. It's more likely that Russia will look to chemical weaponry to end this conflict. This would likely inflict huge loss of life on the civilian population of Ukraine and the scenes that unfold will be horrific. In spite of this, the Kremlin will believe that it is by far the less likely route to escalation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westernpark Posted 12 March 2022 Share Posted 12 March 2022 2 minutes ago, Line-X said: The assault on Kyiv will commence soon. This is the immediate objective whilst the fall of Odessa will cut off supplies from the Black Sea. Both cities will come at a huge cost to the Russian military. Tactical deployment of mini-nukes blur the line between conventional and non-conventional weapons, and the latter are a slippery slope into all out nuclear escalation. It's more likely that Russia will look to chemical weaponry to end this conflict. This would likely inflict huge loss of life on the civilian population of Ukraine and the scenes that unfold will be horrific. In spite of this, the Kremlin will believe that it is by far the less likely route to escalation. Yes it’s in the playbook of Russian military to move towards chemical weapons. Hence my prediction above that they’ll be seen in the next week or so. I just believe that if Putin struggles further, they will be deployed down the line. Tactical due to its effect on both Ukraine and the West. Putin purporting the nuclear stance from the beginning, he wasn’t expecting to be backed into a corner like this. I believe potentially he pushes further because of being a rat in a corner, as per his childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 https://www.bbc.com/news/60684682 China playing the long game and playing both sides. Speaking purely from a self-interested realpolitik perspective, it makes sense for them to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guesty Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 If you have Netflix and want to know more about Ukraine. It's worth watching a documentary called Winter On Fire made in 2015. It's all about the 2013/14 Maidan uprising. Which lead to Russia's last puppet government being overthrown. It's mainly in Ukrainian so it's not something you can have on in the background as you have to read subtitles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 Does the Sue Gray report now indicate that this is a war and not a “special military operation”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st albans fox Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 16 minutes ago, Sly said: Does the Sue Gray report now indicate that this is a war and not a “special military operation”? Depends if you’re reading the official report or the Russian translation……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 There's three or four Super Yachts now Been seized in France and Italy, no idea how many rooms that would amount to but beats being put up in a Travelodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted 13 March 2022 Author Share Posted 13 March 2022 Although I’m sadly not surprised. This is crazy if true. Soldiers being shot for not following orders is medieval shit. Can’t quite believe it’s going on in Europe in 2022. So many young Russians, many basically kids, sent to fight in an unjust war and if they try to stop doing it get sent to their certain deaths as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 The Yavoriv base is 10 miles from the Polish border I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Izzy Posted 13 March 2022 Popular Post Share Posted 13 March 2022 13 hours ago, worthosoriginals said: Im more of a, slam the door in the face of the jehovah, il not say witness, what have they witnessed? Themselves reading a book of fairy tales. I had a JW knock at the front door a few weeks ago. To his surprise, I offered him in for a cup of tea. We sat down and I said “Right then, what happens now?” He replied “I’ve no idea, I’ve never got this far before’ 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 43 minutes ago, Sampson said: Although I’m sadly not surprised. This is crazy if true. Soldiers being shot for not following orders is medieval shit. Can’t quite believe it’s going on in Europe in 2022. So many young Russians, many basically kids, sent to fight in an unjust war and if they try to stop doing it get sent to their certain deaths as well. Face possible death ahead or inevitable death behind. Used in Stalingrad and no doubt throughout Russian military history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stivo Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 14 hours ago, Fox1norfolk said: There are other ways and means, nasty stuff on door handles eg Salisbury I doubt he opens his own doors. I also suspect that he has several years supply of underpants in sealed containers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 Putin is a mad man, he needs to be stopped. Got to call his bluff early and NATO need to step up now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stivo Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 1 hour ago, The Guvnor said: There's three or four Super Yachts now Been seized in France and Italy, no idea how many rooms that would amount to but beats being put up in a Travelodge. They should paint big red crosses on them, fill them with supplies and send them to Mauripol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Countryfox Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 On 12/03/2022 at 11:37, westernpark said: When this is finished and I think we will see an agreement soon 21 hours ago, westernpark said: I think Russia will halt things and test the West, see if they can get some things back from economic sanctions. 18 hours ago, westernpark said: I believe it will end sooner than some are suggesting. My reasoning for mentioning NATO, is why I think it’ll end soon. It won’t be escalated .. 14 hours ago, westernpark said: I just feel we’ll see chemical weapons in the next week, then as a point to the West for our sanctions, he would be willing to go further. Make your mind up ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said: Putin is a mad man, he needs to be stopped. Got to call his bluff early and NATO need to step up now This might just be me, but in my experience madmen tend not to bluff. Inherent lack of self-preservation is what tends to define them as mad in the first place. Edited 13 March 2022 by leicsmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, leicsmac said: This might just be me, but in my experience madmen tend not to bluff. Inherent lack of self-preservation is what tends to define them as mad in the first place. You could be right but I feel he isn’t stopping and how long can you let civilians be slaughtered without taking action? for me he has crossed the line and he needs putting in his box Edited 13 March 2022 by foxes_rule1978 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westernpark Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 8 minutes ago, Countryfox said: Make your mind up ... I have. There’s not a contradiction in what I say. I think it’ll end soon, partly due to use of chemical weapons. Push Zelenskiy into making concessions(unfortunately).Wouldn’t be surprised though if we saw a tactical nuke at some point. But before this ends Putin will want to warn the West. NATO won’t escalate and Putin will feel victorious in a sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 3 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said: You could be right but I feel he isn’t stopping and how long can you let civilians be slaughtered without taking action? for me he has crossed the line and he needs putting in his box Depends. How big is the risk of nuclear holocaust as a result of such an attempt to stop the slaughter? Might be a useful thing to ascertain and factor in. Of course what's going on is horrible and wading in with the heavy mob to save the day sounds good as a result, but it's not much good to save the day when the people you're saving, along with you and countless millions of others, then disappear in a sudden 100 million Kelvin flash. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surrifox Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 1 hour ago, Sampson said: Although I’m sadly not surprised. This is crazy if true. Soldiers being shot for not following orders is medieval shit. Can’t quite believe it’s going on in Europe in 2022. So many young Russians, many basically kids, sent to fight in an unjust war and if they try to stop doing it get sent to their certain deaths as well. Not mediaeval it’s straight out of Uncle Joe Stalin’s playbook in WW2 . Having purged the army of its best generals because of his insanity and paranoia he sent commissars and NKVD units to terrorise front line troops with summary executions for even tactical withdrawals . The ensuing chaos and collapse in morale caused the unnecessary death of millions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 6 minutes ago, leicsmac said: Depends. How big is the risk of nuclear holocaust as a result of such an attempt to stop the slaughter? Might be a useful thing to ascertain and factor in. Of course what's going on is horrible and wading in with the heavy mob to save the day sounds good as a result, but it's not much good to save the day when the people you're saving, along with you and countless millions of others, then disappear in a sudden 100 million Kelvin flash. Then he isn’t stopping, for me there is no chance he launches nukes… I said he is a mad man and I’m right but he isn’t totally insane either, he is smart enough to know when beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpacedX Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 7 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said: I said he is a mad man and I’m right but he isn’t totally insane either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 13 March 2022 Share Posted 13 March 2022 13 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said: Then he isn’t stopping, for me there is no chance he launches nukes… I said he is a mad man and I’m right but he isn’t totally insane either, he is smart enough to know when beaten. I hope you're right. But, for the sake of the future of human civilisation in whatever form, it would be nice to be sure about that rather than just hoping/assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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