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Sampson

Ukraine

By Sampson, in General Chat

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foxes_rule1978

foxes_rule1978

Posted
Posted
Just now, Line-X said:

:blink:

I can see the confusion here, and expected such a response. The guy is totally mad but smart, not totally insane and dumb… so he isn’t pressing the red button, why because it would end the world. That is why you call his bluff and not watch civilians get slaughtered 

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ClaphamFox

ClaphamFox

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I hope you're right.

 

But, for the sake of the future of human civilisation in whatever form, it would be nice to be sure about that rather than just hoping/assuming.

If Putin invaded a NATO country, would your view change or would you still think that Russia’s nuclear capability should rule out a military response from the rest of NATO?

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SpacedX

SpacedX

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

I can see the confusion here, and expected such a response. The guy is totally mad but smart, not totally insane and dumb… 

You have no idea of his state of mind. None of us do. To suggest otherwise is pure speculation. It is very unlikely that Vladimir Putin is as you say, "mad". Certainly, his rhetoric has become more irrational than the Putin that took came to power in 2019, but those that remain in power for so long are often consumed by hubris and increasingly divorced from reality.

 

t's perhaps more disturbing to consider the alternative, that despite the mistakes made, this invasion was the calculated product of an imperialist ideology which is shared throughout the Kremlin and with the backing of the Russian Orthodox church. 

 

13 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

… so he isn’t pressing the red button, why because it would end the world. That is why you call his bluff and not watch civilians get slaughtered 

Should NATO intervene, the prospect of nuclear escalation is very real. Nothing to do with "calling his bluff" when there is a real risk of forcing his hand. 

 

The way out of this is diplomacy on both sides - not WWIII. 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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Posted
3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

If Putin invaded a NATO country, would your view change or would you still think that Russia’s nuclear capability should rule out a military response from the rest of NATO?

I think if he's insane enough to do that, then NATO is honour-bound to defend itself and we will start down a very, very dark road.

 

But if that is the case, then it was always going to be the case and in this particular situation, I'd rather take every chance, at every stage, to de-escalate things that we have.

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foxes_rule1978

foxes_rule1978

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Posted

All I see is deaths of civilians, and doing nothing isn’t good enough. 

12 minutes ago, Line-X said:

You have no idea of his state of mind. None of us do. To suggest otherwise is pure speculation. It is very unlikely that Vladimir Putin is as you say, "mad". Certainly, his rhetoric has become more irrational than the Putin that took came to power in 2019, but those that remain in power for so long are often consumed by hubris and increasingly divorced from reality.

 

t's perhaps more disturbing to consider the alternative, that despite the mistakes made, this invasion was the calculated product of an imperialist ideology which is shared throughout the Kremlin and with the backing of the Russian Orthodox church. 

 

Should NATO intervene, the prospect of nuclear escalation is very real. Nothing to do with "calling his bluff" when there is a real risk of forcing his hand. 

 

The way out of this is diplomacy on both sides - not WWIII. 

I hate the fact we sit on our hands and do nothing, how far does he need to go before we move in on him? when does it stop, sorry but I don’t think he is stopping, ukarine first and then others. Do we just watch while he commits genocide?

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Sly

Sly

Posted
Posted

No one wants a nuclear war, not even Putin. 
 

It would be very quick and bleakly put, the end of the world. 
 

I do wonder if Putin wants to leave his mark on history, in which case should he be defeated or pushed back, he’d be inclined to under take several nuclear strikes. 

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Sly

Sly

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

All I see is deaths of civilians, and doing nothing isn’t good enough. 

I hate the fact we sit on our hands and do nothing, how far does he need to go before we move in on him? when does it stop, sorry but I don’t think he is stopping, ukarine first and then others. Do we just watch while he commits genocide?

With how poorly the Ukraine invasion has  gone, does Russia have the army and arsenal to push further into Europe?  

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foxes_rule1978

foxes_rule1978

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sly said:

With how poorly the Ukraine invasion has  gone, does Russia have the army and arsenal to push further into Europe?  

I’m asking that question myself but he hasn’t let up and continues to push forward. If he gets victory here, then he isn’t stopping at Ukraine regardless of cost. 

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Sly

Sly

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Posted
3 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

I’m asking that question myself but he hasn’t let up and continues to push forward. If he gets victory here, then he isn’t stopping at Ukraine regardless of cost. 

I think he’d need to co-ordinate some sort of strike that would disable most of nato and I just can’t see it. 
 

I do wonder how much stuff gets swept under the carpet though. 
 

This feels like the closest we’ll come to a world war in our lifetime, however we don’t really know what goes on behind closed doors. 

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SpacedX

SpacedX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

All I see is deaths of civilians, and doing nothing isn’t good enough. 

I hate the fact we sit on our hands and do nothing, how far does he need to go before we move in on him? when does it stop, sorry but I don’t think he is stopping, ukarine first and then others. Do we just watch while he commits genocide?

Unfortunately the west turned a blind eye to similar atrocities in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria as no doubt did you.

 

This situation has been allowed to fester for the best part of a decade through a combination of Western indifference, a lack of dialogue on all sides, burgeoning Russian Nationalism, increased tensions in the Donbas region and myopic domestic policy in Ukraine. Ostensibly, Putin will not stop until the Ukrainian government is removed, the eastern territories are ceded and there is a guarantee that Ukraine will remain independent and decline EU and NATO membership which of course Ukraine will not agree to. It is essential that compromise is reached however, no matter how unpalatable that may be for either side. 

 

Beyond that, as has been discussed on this thread and those before it, Russia will likely annex Transnistria as a stepping stone to Moldova. To the north, the Baltic is a concern, but if so much as one Russian tank lays its tracks on NATO soil then Article 5 is triggered and it is WWIII. 

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Countryfox

Countryfox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, westernpark said:

I think it’ll end soon, partly due to use of chemical weapons. Push Zelenskiy into making concessions ..

I can’t see that happening ..  now that we have predicted his use of chemical weapons he will have to think very hard about using them. If he does it will prove once and for all he has lost the plot. 
 

Zelensky will never make concessions unless he gets something in return ..  threats and the use of banned weapons will have the opposite effect. 

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SpacedX

SpacedX

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Posted
Just now, Countryfox said:

now that we have predicted his use of chemical weapons he will have to think very hard about using them. If he does it will prove once and for all he has lost the plot. 

Yet the Russian military have done this before, with no recourse from the west. 

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Countryfox

Countryfox

Posted
Posted
Just now, Line-X said:

Yet the Russian military have done this before, with no recourse from the west. 

I know but it doesn’t mean we will keep making the same mistake ..  this war on our doorstep has galvanised the West. 

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westernpark

westernpark

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1 minute ago, Countryfox said:

I can’t see that happening ..  now that we have predicted his use of chemical weapons he will have to think very hard about using them. If he does it will prove once and for all he has lost the plot. 
 

Zelensky will never make concessions unless he gets something in return ..  threats and the use of banned weapons will have the opposite effect. 

He’s used them before. Just going further into the pages of a Russian military playbook. 
If Zelenskiy can save part of his country, then that’s a pretty good return. He has been pushing for the West to help with Peace Talks. A marked change in his rhetoric of never surrender.

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foxes_rule1978

foxes_rule1978

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Unfortunately the west turned a blind eye to similar atrocities in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria as no doubt did you.

 

This situation has been allowed to fester for the best part of a decade through a combination of Western indifference, a lack of dialogue on all sides, burgeoning Russian Nationalism, increased tensions in the Donbas region and myopic domestic policy in Ukraine. Ostensibly, Putin will not stop until the Ukrainian government is removed, the eastern territories are ceded and there is a guarantee that Ukraine will remain independent and decline EU and NATO membership which of course Ukraine will not agree to. It is essential that compromise is reached however, no matter how unpalatable that may be for either side. 

 

Beyond that, as has been discussed on this thread and those before it, Russia will likely annex Transnistria as a stepping stone to Moldova. To the north, the Baltic is a concern, but if so much as one Russian tank lays its tracks on NATO soil then Article 5 is triggered and it is WWIII. 

I can’t argue with what you say here. However we can’t just let this happen and pretend nothing is going on because in the past we didn’t take action when needed. 

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surrifox

surrifox

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Sly said:

With how poorly the Ukraine invasion has  gone, does Russia have the army and arsenal to push further into Europe?  

Almost certainly not . I would expect NATO firepower to reduce his army to ruins in very short order . 

The attack on the base near the Polish border was actually quite a shrewd move however . If foreign troops as part of the NATO force were killed in the attack their home countries would not keep that a secret . Once that became known it would enable Putin to point to a planned military attack by NATO in support of Ukraine 

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SpacedX

SpacedX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

I can’t argue with what you say here. However we can’t just let this happen and pretend nothing is going on because in the past we didn’t take action when needed. 

We are not pretending nothing is going on. Unfortunately this is what it took for the world to take notice. I'm not suggesting that the west shouldn't intervene because it didn't in the past, I'm suggesting that we shouldn't "take action" because that would mean WWIII, countless more innocent lives lost and the very real threat of nuclear escalation. 

 

7 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

I know but it doesn’t mean we will keep making the same mistake ..  this war on our doorstep has galvanised the West. 

It has - but the warnings were there. 

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Countryfox

Countryfox

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Line-X said:

 

It has - but the warnings were there. 


Sorry mate you’re losing me a bit there ..  I thought we were talking about whether the west would or would not react if he used chemical weapons ..  I think it will regardless of what happened in the past. 

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westernpark

westernpark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Countryfox said:


Sorry mate you’re losing me a bit there ..  I thought we were talking about whether the west would or would not react if he used chemical weapons ..  I think it will regardless of what happened in the past. 

If we react, then it can be used as propaganda for Putins views on NATO. It would be illogical to do so on the basis of further escalation. The whole point is that we can’t react inside of Ukraine. It’ll be Kyiv where they’re used.

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westernpark

westernpark

Posted
Posted (edited)

There has been some good news today, within all the obvious glum. Ukrainian negotiators praising(not right word) but effectively the case, for Russia beginning to be more constructive in talks. They even said they expect some good results in the next few days. Info is on the guardian live section(free of charge). 

Edited by westernpark
Didn’t put which country.
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Countryfox

Countryfox

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, westernpark said:

There has been some good news today, within all the obvious glum. Ukrainian negotiators praising(not right word) but effectively the case, for Russia beginning to be more constructive in talks. They even said they expect some good results in the next few days. Info is on the guardian live section(free of charge). 

Good news indeed but didn’t see it mentioned on latest tv updates ..

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