Ukraine

[Spiritwalker]

3 minutes ago, westernpark said:

I think it would be the equivalent of pissing in the wind.

Why? We have enough nuclear capability to blow up the populated parts of Russia several times over.

[Spiritwalker]

6 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Which is nowhere near this country (unless any subs are in port) 

We currently have one threat, it would be incompetent in the extreme not to be able to respond.

[westernpark]

To paraphrase the government, Russia has increased the variety of unconventional weapons, whereas we have dumbed down our tech. We do have a nuclear deterrent, but in the scenario of us being specifically targeted, we’d be useless. 
Obviously in the sphere of NATO it’s different. But this was on the basis of us as an individual actor. 

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, westernpark said:

To paraphrase the government, Russia has increased the variety of unconventional weapons, whereas we have dumbed down our tech. We do have a nuclear deterrent, but in the scenario of us being specifically targeted, we’d be useless. 
Obviously in the sphere of NATO it’s different. But this was on the basis of us as an individual actor. 

Nuclear weapons don’t work like that, it’s not a case of who’s got the most wins, besides Leicesters a nuclear free zone, it used to say it on the sign at braunstone crossroad’s 

[westernpark]

2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Nuclear weapons don’t work like that, it’s not a case of who’s got the most wins, besides Leicesters a nuclear free zone, it used to say it on the sign at braunstone crossroad’s 

Thanks for the local history in regards to Braunstone crossroads.

can you be more specific as to what part you are questioning? Happy to answer! Thanks.

[westernpark]

6 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Nuclear weapons don’t work like that, it’s not a case of who’s got the most wins, besides Leicesters a nuclear free zone, it used to say it on the sign at braunstone crossroad’s 

My information was in regards to not the number of nuclear weapons, but the advanced technology that the Russians were developing. At no point am I saying this would be war dependent on how many of the type of weapon you had. 

[leicsmac]

4 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I’ve seen a few simulations of how a nuclear exchange would go and the initial ones don’t really affect the U.K. - very Central Europe centred 

 

4 hours ago, westernpark said:

I would argue we’d be first targeted. Based on the fact that we’ve been so unnecessarily vocal in comparison to our actual actions, Johnson is trying to take charge on Europe’s reaction, outside of EU boundary. Russia on many occasions has specifically mentioned us, regarding Truss comments and others. We are isolated and if the winds were westwards, Europe can cry for us and just move on. Wouldn’t necessarily cause Nuclear holocaust for rest of world.

 

But we’re not there yet. There has been positive movement in regard to talks. Russian UN ambassador this morning acknowledged Zelenskyy saying they wouldn’t join NATO. Russia would recognise this if written in constitution. As someone who studies this topic at University, I am far more positive than I was two weeks ago regarding the situation. This has also been reflected in what the experts who teach me have been saying.

Interesting.

 

AFAIC (and as far as I have read) there's no such thing as a "limited" nuclear exchange anyway, not under realistic geopolitical conditions. The moment any nuclear-armed power targets any other nuclear-armed power with such weapons, everyone else can and will be bound by treaty obligations to bundle in too. Escalation would be swift and catastrophic.

 

The only exception I can think of would be India-Pakistan, and that would be very much dependent on how China is affected, if at all.

[MPH]

4 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Nuclear weapons don’t work like that, it’s not a case of who’s got the most wins, besides Leicesters a nuclear free zone, it used to say it on the sign at braunstone crossroad’s 

 

if Great Britain was evert targeted we’d be one of the first places hit after London as we’re  so central a nuke hitting us would cause the most damage..

[thursday_next]

I saw a map the other day that predicts Folkestone will be one of the few places not flattened by the initial shock-wave. This is good, as far I can tell. The problem would come later, with like, the nuclear winter and having to avoid people that are trying to eat you, but as long as you keep yourself well supplied with canned goods you should survive a few weeks. It might be stimulating to go without TV for a while, but I would miss 'Match Of The Day' 

[ClaphamFox]

Amid all this cheerful chat about what a nuclear armageddon would look like in practice, John Simpson has published a piece looking at what it would take for Putin to be able to save face and withdraw:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Amid all this cheerful chat about what a nuclear armageddon would look like in practice, John Simpson has published a piece looking at what it would take for Putin to be able to save face and withdraw:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993

Damn good read that. I wouldn't be half surprised if that's the way all of this plays out.

[Countryfox]

24 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Amid all this cheerful chat about what a nuclear armageddon would look like in practice, John Simpson has published a piece looking at what it would take for Putin to be able to save face and withdraw:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993

The big card is staying out of NATO and needs to be cleverly used in the discussions (ie don’t throw it in too quickly so that it loses its importance). That to me is not so important a hurdle for Ukraine to cross ..  there are many ways to skin a rabbit ..  and in this case the ‘west’ could easily build up Ukraines ability to deter any further incursions from Russia .. missile systems and other state of the art weapons combined with a large modern airforce.  Joining the EU is even less important as they could enjoy all the benefits without being a member .. the thorny issue of letting them keep yet more of Ukraines territory is something to be thrashed out but that would just involve negotiation and a ‘meeting half way’ compromise.   Fingers crossed. 

[David Hankey]

Everything will be fine while Putin gets his way. Ukraine, in the meantime, will end up like Syria, flattened.

[yorkie1999]

6 hours ago, MPH said:

 

if Great Britain was evert targeted we’d be one of the first places hit after London as we’re  so central a nuke hitting us would cause the most damage..

Nah, it’s a nuclear free zone, the planning officers said so.

[Countryfox]

Jeez my last post looks very similar to what was in the article ..  which I’ve just read .. should have done it earlier !!  My main point was that Putin knows if Ukraine joins NATO he won’t be able to keep nibbling away at it bit by bit, but, if we assist Ukraine in becoming so strong militarily it will have the same effect. 

[bovril]

Talk of the Kremlin accepting a Sweden or Austria type model for Ukraine. Isn't that what was on the cards anyway? Russians have ruined their country for absolutely nothing. 

[Guesty]

 

[The Fox Covert]

22 minutes ago, Guesty said:

 

Putin has been reported to have called up his military reservists and has started emptying his prisons.

He has also recruited fighters from Syria.

The military reservists will be older, usually with families and less keen on a stint in the front line against a determined, well-organised and well-armed defender.

Hitler ordered the SS to recruit men from prisons and concentration camps in the last couple of years of the war, when Germany was running out of men capable of fighting. If Putin is doing this then he must be getting absolutely desperate.

Syrian fighters are less of a known quantity. They will be experienced in their own theatre, but how effective will they be in the very different battlefield of Ukraine?

Also how well motivated will they be when called up to fight a war which they won't see as having any relevance to their own country?

[yorkie1999]

32 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Putin has been reported to have called up his military reservists and has started emptying his prisons.

He has also recruited fighters from Syria.

The military reservists will be older, usually with families and less keen on a stint in the front line against a determined, well-organised and well-armed defender.

Hitler ordered the SS to recruit men from prisons and concentration camps in the last couple of years of the war, when Germany was running out of men capable of fighting. If Putin is doing this then he must be getting absolutely desperate.

Syrian fighters are less of a known quantity. They will be experienced in their own theatre, but how effective will they be in the very different battlefield of Ukraine?

Also how well motivated will they be when called up to fight a war which they won't see as having any relevance to their own country?

As soon as they get there, 16000 i read somewhere, they'll be across the border and into Poland.

[Guesty]

I've got so much respect for the Klitschko's after this. Would have been so easy for them to run off with an excuse.

 

[LiberalFox]

If Russia are saying Ukraine can be like Austria or Sweden, does that mean they are accepting a Ukraine joining the EU? (Austria and Sweden are both EU members). If that is genuine then that's a huge concession from Russia. 

[kenny]

13 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

If Russia are saying Ukraine can be like Austria or Sweden, does that mean they are accepting a Ukraine joining the EU? (Austria and Sweden are both EU members). If that is genuine then that's a huge concession from Russia. 

Not if Verhofstadt gets his EU army.

[Thefox81]

37 minutes ago, Guesty said:

I've got so much respect for the Klitschko's after this. Would have been so easy for them to run off with an excuse.

 

Brilliant.

[Zear0]

An incredibly moving video shown prior to Zelenskiy's address to the US Congress.

 

Seems wrong to put some cold slant on such things having seen the video, but the way the Ukrainian government have utilised social media globally to garner support has been something quite unique, and very successful.  The first time I can recall seeing such an approach within a conflict.

[StanSP]