Ukraine

[Lionator]

5 hours ago, westernpark said:

Very surprised many of them have gotten out the country. Still no martial law, yet. 

Think they’d have called martial law by now if they were going to. 

[Sly]

Just catching up on this. 
 

I don’t know why, but when I watch the reports, I’m still shocked at some of the things I see.

 

Innocent people are dying and we’re sat here watching it happen.

It’s not right, it’s really, really not right and if we won’t move against them I fear of the crazy Willy puller pressing the nukes, we can only sanction them to the point they’re isolated for generations. Again though, that isn’t fair on the members of the public that would oppose this. 

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Sly said:

Just catching up on this. 
 

I don’t know why, but when I watch the reports, I’m still shocked at some of the things I see.

 

Innocent people are dying and we’re sat here watching it happen.

It’s not right, it’s really, really not right and if we won’t move against them I fear of the crazy Willy puller pressing the nukes, we can only sanction them to the point they’re isolated for generations. Again though, that isn’t fair on the members of the public that would oppose this. 

Any kind of direct NATO action would without doubt involve many many more deaths than the current limited Ukraine war.  So yes we are not going in, but the Ukrainian ability to defend themselves has been successful in no small part due to the NATO supplied weapons and intelligence.  I have no doubt Ukrainian forces have near perfect imagery of exactly what the Russians are doing.  Ukraine will still be a mostly independent country at the end of this horror because of this support.

[MPH]

15 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Any kind of direct NATO action would without doubt involve many many more deaths than the current limited Ukraine war.  So yes we are not going in, but the Ukrainian ability to defend themselves has been successful in no small part due to the NATO supplied weapons and intelligence.  I have no doubt Ukrainian forces have near perfect imagery of exactly what the Russians are doing.  Ukraine will still be a mostly independent country at the end of this horror because of this support.

 

 

what exactly is a ‘ mostly’ independent country?

 

surely you are either independent or you’re not?

[Jon the Hat]

6 minutes ago, MPH said:

what exactly is a ‘ mostly’ independent country?

 

surely you are either independent or you’re not?

Putin is demanding the recognition of Crimea and the Donbass regions.  Suspect Ukraine will have to agree to the first and some kind of referendum for the second which they will lose.  Also likely to have to commit by treaty not to join NATO.  SO mostly what they had control of a few weeks ago.

[MPH]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Putin is demanding the recognition of Crimea and the Donbass regions.  Suspect Ukraine will have to agree to the first and some kind of referendum for the second which they will lose.  Also likely to have to commit by treaty not to join NATO.  SO mostly what they had control of a few weeks ago.

 

Crimea was recognized by Russia  as being part of Ukraine in 1954.. the Ukrainians will just remind Russia of this. I highly doubt Zelensky  will ever sign any agreement that goes to the contrary. First Crimea, then the Donbas, what next? Putin has already gone on record recently  saying that Ukraine has no historical right to exist as a sovereign nation. Putin is breaking the 1954 agreement, the Minsk agreement over the Donbas so why should they trust any agreement Putin makes anyway?

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Crimea was recognized by Russia  as being part of Ukraine in 1954.. the Ukrainians will just remind Russia of this. I highly doubt Zelensky  will ever sign any agreement that goes to the contrary. First Crimea, then the Donbas, what next? Putin has already gone on record recently  saying that Ukraine has no historical right to exist as a sovereign nation. Putin is breaking the 1954 agreement, the Minsk agreement over the Donbas so why should they trust any agreement Putin makes anyway?

...assuming this is all true and will be stuck to as a point of fact, then it would imply that negotiations are pretty much meaningless.

 

What then?

[MPH]

9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

...assuming this is all true and will be stuck to as a point of fact, then it would imply that negotiations are pretty much meaningless.

 

What then?

 

well Zelensky  has already conceded that Ukraine will not Join NATO. That was a huge key demand for Putin. Any other tidbits of concessions Putin can get ( like a  symbolic commitment to fight naziism ) will all be about  saving face for  Russia,  considering how botched this invasion has become. ANYTHING Putin can grab hold of to turn this into a victory, he will take.

Edited 18 March 2022 by MPH

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

well Zelensky  has already conceded that Ukraine will not Join NATO. That was a huge key demand for Putin. Any other tidbits of concessions Putin can get ( like a  symbolic commitment to fight naziism ) will all be about  saving face for  Russia,  considering how botched this invasion has become. ANYTHING Putin can grab hold of to turn this into a victory, he will take.

Well, yes.

 

I'm just wondering how an agreement would be reached if a deal for Crimea/Donbass is off the table entirely. I can't see Russia/Putin sticking around for any agreement that doesn't include something on those in there.

[MPH]

17 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Well, yes.

 

I'm just wondering how an agreement would be reached if a deal for Crimea/Donbass is off the table entirely. I can't see Russia/Putin sticking around for any agreement that doesn't include something on those in there.

 

 I totally get what you’re saying, and there may be something in any final deal that includes the Donbas somehow, but I don’t think Putin is holding as many cards as he once thought he did. A monumental defensive effort that has stalled the Russian advance on many fronts, unprecedented sanctions that even the Germans appear to finally be on board with  and large support both financially and with military equipment seems to have emboldened the Ukrainian stance.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 I totally get what you’re saying, and there may be something in any final deal that includes the Donbas somehow, but I don’t think Putin is holding as many cards as he once thought he did. A monumental defensive effort that has stalled the Russian advance on many fronts, unprecedented sanctions that even the Germans appear to finally be on board with  and large support both financially and with military equipment seems to have emboldened the Ukrainian stance.

That's true. However, Putin knows if he backs away with only the NATO obligation from all of this he's pretty much finished (tbh he may well be anyway but that's another discussion), so I'm thinking if at least Crimea isn't involved in future discussion he'll keep on just for the purposes of spite/Sunk Cost Fallacy.

[Jon the Hat]

35 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

That's true. However, Putin knows if he backs away with only the NATO obligation from all of this he's pretty much finished (tbh he may well be anyway but that's another discussion), so I'm thinking if at least Crimea isn't involved in future discussion he'll keep on just for the purposes of spite/Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Yes, which is exactly why the Crimea will be on the table.  I suspect the Donbass they can agree a ceasefire and some kind of longer term agreement on a quasi independent status.  The commitment to take on the far right groups is also something they will be willing to agree I think.  

Edited 18 March 2022 by Jon the Hat

[Sly]

I’m not keen on the Ukraine not being allowed to join NATO bit of i’m honest. 
 

It’s no different to bullying and someone stating “don’t be friends with them, otherwise I’ll hit you”.

 

This entire not want NATO on his doorstep of bonkers. He’s a tyrant and a Dictator. The sooner he’s gone, the better ultimately. Not just for the sake of Eastern Europe, but Russia and the rest of the world. 
 

Our stance on this does make a mockery of the invasion of Iraq though. We went in because we believed they have weapons of mass destruction. Let’s be honest here, the only reason we’ve not hit Russia is because we know he’ll potentially be trigger happy with the launch buttons should NATO get involved. It would be his only exit plan.  

[Jon the Hat]

8 minutes ago, Sly said:

I’m not keen on the Ukraine not being allowed to join NATO bit of i’m honest. 
 

It’s no different to bullying and someone stating “don’t be friends with them, otherwise I’ll hit you”.

 

This entire not want NATO on his doorstep of bonkers. He’s a tyrant and a Dictator. The sooner he’s gone, the better ultimately. Not just for the sake of Eastern Europe, but Russia and the rest of the world. 
 

Our stance on this does make a mockery of the invasion of Iraq though. We went in because we believed they have weapons of mass destruction. Let’s be honest here, the only reason we’ve not hit Russia is because we know he’ll potentially be trigger happy with the launch buttons should NATO get involved. It would be his only exit plan.  

It is a pretty good reason no? He is an old man, he wont be around for ever.

[z-layrex]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yes, which is exactly why the Crimea will be on the table.  I suspect the Donbass they can agree a ceasefire and some kind of longer term agreement on a quasi independent status.  The commitment to take on the far right groups is also something they will be willing to agree I think.  

Azov battalion have fought like ****ing lions in the south east though and continue to do so every day, how do they not end up being seen as national heroes when this war ends?

[Lionator]

2 hours ago, z-layrex said:

Azov battalion have fought like ****ing lions in the south east though and continue to do so every day, how do they not end up being seen as national heroes when this war ends?

Because they're legitimately full of nazi's? Although that problem can be dealt with once this war is over.

Edited 18 March 2022 by Lionator

[Zear0]

2 hours ago, z-layrex said:

Azov battalion have fought like ****ing lions in the south east though and continue to do so every day, how do they not end up being seen as national heroes when this war ends?

Not to be the stereotypical Brit banging on about "The War", but the Russians took an absolute pounding in '41 around the Sea of Azov so they've got form.

[Countryfox]

Listening to the UK defence minister talking this morning threw up a few interesting points ...   he talked about the Russians stalling saying that driving forward through the countryside was the easier part and that taking a city was the hard part.  Figures suggest that for every one defender killed 5 attacking soldiers are killed.  If the civilian population is 100% behind the defenders that moves to 14 to 1.  Quite eye opening statistics !   He also mentioned about the more sticky points they had to agree to during the peace talks , obviously NATO membership was a prerequisite (and I'm convinced that is not as big a problem as it would appear and have mentioned why earlier) but also brought up the de-Nazification issue which apparently relates to some far right groups in the population .... I just thought this was one of Putins rants with no real foundation ...   maybe not ...   but again not a real stumbling block and easy to agree to.

[NasPb]

 

 

[David Hankey]

Putin now quoting from the Bible. I can't think of a more despicable person in the world.

[Spiritwalker]

Just thinking that Ukraine should play the Russians at their own game.

Agree not to join NATO, agree to recognise Crimea and the Donbas regions as Russian,

wait for the Russians to go home then say, actually we’ve changed our minds.

 

 

[fox_favourite]

37 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

Putin now quoting from the Bible. I can't think of a more despicable person in the world.

Like - “Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself"?! 

[Parafox]

17 hours ago, MPH said:

 

 

what exactly is a ‘ mostly’ independent country?

 

surely you are either independent or you’re not?

Scotland.

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, David Hankey said:

Putin now quoting from the Bible. I can't think of a more despicable person in the world.

Why is this a surprise to you?

 

Prior to the invasion, Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, delivered a sermon in which he declared the divine unity of Ukraine and Russia conferred by God, whilst denouncing the “evil forces” in Ukraine that are hell bent on corrupting and destroying this unity. He called upon God to “prohibit and overturn the designs of the foreign pagans who want war and are gathering troops against Holy Russia.” He then prayed for God to bestow his blessing upon the Russian military sent to protect Russian Orthodox Christians in the Donbass region whilst going on to proclaim that far more is at stake than the liberation of the oppressed Russians, namely, the salvation of mankind itself. Humankind has become weak and is no longer subservient to God’s Law, they are no longer hearing his word and his gospel, and are blinded by the gathering darkness to the Light of Christ. The future of human civilisation itself is in jeopardy he declared before launching into an angry homily denouncing the decadent and permissive west. 

 

The Russian Orthodox Church is providing much of the hagiography and ideology that Putin has appropriated to engender his popularity over the years and justification of this war derives from the Kremlin’s mythologisation and subversion of Russia’s history. The church equates “Holy Russia” with “Holy Rus’’ - the medieval state of Rus and to Putin, Kiev and Crimea, where St. Vladimir was baptised are 'sacred Russian lands.' His last visit to Kyiv was in 2013, during which he could be seen kissing a statue of the saint. He has also erected a similar statue near the Kremlin. 

 

Vladimir Putin supported by and with the full backing of the Russian Orthodox church has for years maintained that the West has long been conspiring against Russia by coopting Ukraine. The 'special operation' in Ukraine is therefore portrayed as a holy war, a crusade and an epic apocalyptic battle between absolute good and absolute evil blessed by this revisionist and revanchist version of Russian history centered on the historical struggle and the repulsion of foreign invaders and infidels - (Mongols, Lithuanians, Poles, Swedes, French, and Germans). The Russian Orthodox Church is regarded as pivotal in the defense and survival of the Russian nation. The memory of these centuries of holy wars are central to Russian school curricula and is similarly etched and ingrained in the collective consciousness of the nation. 

[MPH]

50 minutes ago, Parafox said:

Scotland.

 

That depends on who you ask