Ukraine

[MPH]

19 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Ukraine refuses to give up any land in negotiations for sake of sovereignty ----> Russia therefore abandons the negotiations and continues its attack, slowly destroying Ukrainian forces in the field ----> International community decides they must step in to prevent total humanitarian crisis/stopping Putin ---> NATO forces engage Russian ones in the field ---> Russian forces are beaten ----> Putin refuses to accept loss ----> ???? ------> Nuclear Profit!

 

Yes, other factors are at work along the way, but that entire chain of disaster dominoes would begin with Ukraine making a decision based on their idea of sovereignty.

 

I would put it to you that  Putin is unlikely to stick to any agreement he makes  as evidenced by his breaking of the Minsk agreement and will use any agreement to take over Ukraine completely- he’d be able to attack from a stronger position. And is hoping to bring about the demilitarization of Ukraine into any deal.  bare in mind he has recently gone on record as saying  Ukrain has no historical right to exist as a nation.  And I don’t see that he would stop at just Ukraine and I would make that assumption because he has also gone on record as saying the downfall of the Soviet Union is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th February.

 

I would say that conceding land and sovereignty is more likely to bring about a catastrophic loss of life further afield than just the Ukraine.

Edited 21 March 2022 by MPH

[leicsmac]

Just now, MPH said:

 

I would put it to you that  Putin is unlikely to stick to any agreement he makes and will use any agreement to take over Ukraine completely- he’d be able to attack from

a stronger position. bare in mind he has recently gone on record as saying  Ukrain has no historical right to exist as a nation.  And I don’t see that he would stop at just Ukraine and I would make that assumption because he has also gone on record as saying the downfall of the Soviet Union is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th February.

 

I would say that conceding land and sovereignty is more likely to bring about a catastrophic loss of life further afield than just the Ukraine.

If what you say is true - and I'm not dismissing it out of hand from what is known about Putin's character - then catastrophic loss of life is inevitable in the near future no matter what course of action is taken, short of a set of extremely fortunate circumstances. It would just be a question of time.

 

Here's hoping, in that case, that it is not true.

[MPH]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If what you say is true - and I'm not dismissing it out of hand from what is known about Putin's character - then catastrophic loss of life is inevitable in the near future no matter what course of action is taken, short of a set of extremely fortunate circumstances. It would just be a question of time.

 

Here's hoping, in that case, that it is not true.

 

Absolutely.

 

 

it could be argued that the closet we have come to a nuclear war was when the Soviet Union was at its strongest ( 1962) and a strong invigorated Russian led block should be avoided.

 

 

the reality is  though that no one really knows how this is going to play out and that is what is so unnerving about the current situation.

[Jon the Hat]

10 minutes ago, MPH said:

I would put it to you that  Putin is unlikely to stick to any agreement he makes  as evidenced by his breaking of the Minsk agreement and will use any agreement to take over Ukraine completely- he’d be able to attack from a stronger position. And is hoping to bring about the demilitarization of Ukraine into any deal.  bare in mind he has recently gone on record as saying  Ukrain has no historical right to exist as a nation.  And I don’t see that he would stop at just Ukraine and I would make that assumption because he has also gone on record as saying the downfall of the Soviet Union is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th February.

 

I would say that conceding land and sovereignty is more likely to bring about a catastrophic loss of life further afield than just the Ukraine.

He has also just found out his military is a bit bloody useless despite a 10 year investment program.  Hard to see that leading to him deciding to kick off against NATO for further embarrassment.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MPH said:

 

Absolutely.

 

 

it could be argued that the closet we have come to a nuclear war was when the Soviet Union was at its strongest ( 1962) and a strong invigorated Russian led block should be avoided.

 

 

the reality is  though that no one really knows how this is going to play out and that is what is so unnerving about the current situation.

We came pretty close in 1983 on more than one occasion too. I think that the strength of both sides with respect to that though is mostly coincidental and there were other more important factors at play.

 

MAD requires two powers with the ability to devastate each other and the world. Whether or not MAD or a unipolar world is better for the sake of global stability and prosperity is a whole other debate in itself.

[MPH]

21 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

He has also just found out his military is a bit bloody useless despite a 10 year investment program.  Hard to see that leading to him deciding to kick off against NATO for further embarrassment.

 

it’s been alleged that Putin has already used up his entire stock of cruise missiles!

[MPH]

 

 

if that’s true, that’s absolutely brilliant..

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

 

 

if that’s true, that’s absolutely brilliant..

Its up there with the farmers stealing tanks with their tractors.

[The Fox Covert]

10 hours ago, MPH said:

 

I would put it to you that  Putin is unlikely to stick to any agreement he makes  as evidenced by his breaking of the Minsk agreement and will use any agreement to take over Ukraine completely- he’d be able to attack from a stronger position. And is hoping to bring about the demilitarization of Ukraine into any deal.  bare in mind he has recently gone on record as saying  Ukrain has no historical right to exist as a nation.  And I don’t see that he would stop at just Ukraine and I would make that assumption because he has also gone on record as saying the downfall of the Soviet Union is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th February.

 

I would say that conceding land and sovereignty is more likely to bring about a catastrophic loss of life further afield than just the Ukraine.

Absolutely true. Putin is totally untrustworthy. Any concession of territory to Putin and he will see it as a sign of weakness. He will rebuild his army, make sure they are better equipped and trained, and have another go in a few years time. There definitely is a master plan to rebuild the Soviet Empire and there have been plenty of clues to how it will go. Ukraine is just the start. If he can take Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will be next, then Estonia and the land he needs to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad.

Now he has realised the Ukrainian people are completely against him his army has started rounding up people in Mariupol and sending them to labour camps in the far East of Russia to be forcibly Russified. Shades of the Nazi Final Solution in 1941. Vladolf Putler!

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Absolutely true. Putin is totally untrustworthy. Any concession of territory to Putin and he will see it as a sign of weakness. He will rebuild his army, make sure they are better equipped and trained, and have another go in a few years time. There definitely is a master plan to rebuild the Soviet Empire and there have been plenty of clues to how it will go. Ukraine is just the start. If he can take Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will be next, then Estonia and the land he needs to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad.

Now he has realised the Ukrainian people are completely against him his army has started rounding up people in Mariupol and sending them to labour camps in the far East of Russia to be forcibly Russified. Shades of the Nazi Final Solution in 1941. Vladolf Putler!

Right...so now everyone is aware of the problem....what is the solution?

 

Preferably one that doesn't inevitably escalate to 100 million Kelvin hellstorm.

Edited 21 March 2022 by leicsmac

[ozleicester]

figured out why @Jon the Hat moved 

...However, many users stated that Perth is a good city to live in, as well, as it is one of the more remote cities in Australia, and on Earth...

https://anonhq.com/what-is-the-safest-place-on-earth-if-a-nuclear-war-broke-out/?fbclid=IwAR2ptKq7eVoBfPAUD8U-M_7KKvhqRY98O21B9Cc_w-wAE7mdmbfNcemYUYg

Edited 21 March 2022 by ozleicester

[MPH]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Right...so now everyone is aware of the problem....what is the solution?

 

Preferably one that doesn't inevitably escalate to 100 million Kelvin hellstorm.

 

i still maintain that Putin would NEVER be the first one to start a nuke war. His sole purpose is the betterment of the Russian cause not the destruction of it.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

i still maintain that Putin would NEVER be the first one to start a nuke war. His sole purpose is the betterment of the Russian cause not the destruction of it.

And I maintain that the future of civilisation is too high stakes to be making an assumption like that without being pretty close to empirically certain of it.

 

I agree that Putin wants the betterment of the Russian cause, but expansion in the way suggested above that will bring him into direct conflict with NATO will almost inevitably end in a scenario where his rule and the autonomy of Russia is under direct and grave threat. At that point, all bets would be off.

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

figured out why @Jon the Hat moved 

...However, many users stated that Perth is a good city to live in, as well, as it is one of the more remote cities in Australia, and on Earth...

https://anonhq.com/what-is-the-safest-place-on-earth-if-a-nuclear-war-broke-out/?fbclid=IwAR2ptKq7eVoBfPAUD8U-M_7KKvhqRY98O21B9Cc_w-wAE7mdmbfNcemYUYg

If, goodness forbid, that terribleness did happen, it's likely Australia, New Zealand and some parts of South America would be the last vestiges of civilisation.

Edited 21 March 2022 by leicsmac

[MPH]

28 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And I maintain that the future of civilisation is too high stakes to be making an assumption like that without being pretty close to empirically certain of it.

 

I agree that Putin wants the betterment of the Russian cause, but expansion in the way suggested above that will bring him into direct conflict with NATO will almost inevitably end in a scenario where his rule and the autonomy of Russia is under direct and grave threat. At that point, all bets would be off.

 

as an aside, I would have no doubt that many people from difference sectors of  the world wide secret service community are plotting his assassination as we speak.

[st albans fox]

43 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Absolutely true. Putin is totally untrustworthy. Any concession of territory to Putin and he will see it as a sign of weakness. He will rebuild his army, make sure they are better equipped and trained, and have another go in a few years time. There definitely is a master plan to rebuild the Soviet Empire and there have been plenty of clues to how it will go. Ukraine is just the start. If he can take Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will be next, then Estonia and the land he needs to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad.

Now he has realised the Ukrainian people are completely against him his army has started rounding up people in Mariupol and sending them to labour camps in the far East of Russia to be forcibly Russified. Shades of the Nazi Final Solution in 1941. Vladolf Putler!

I think the wartime Jews of europe would have welcomed the chance to be in forced labour camps with no extermination gas chambers ……

zelensky made a tactical error yesterday speaking to the Knesset when comparing the current situation in ukraine with the holocaust (and also claiming (erroneously) that Ukrainians were strong protectors of Jews in their country in WWII).  His natural desperation after a period where his army had done a fantastic job to defend their country is beginning to show.  I hope he manages to hold it together - he has been an inspiration to the world at a time where genuine global leadership is sadly lacking …..

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

as an aside, I would have no doubt that many people from difference sectors of  the world wide secret service community are plotting his assassination as we speak.

I have no doubt either.

 

But that's both high-risk and there's no guarantee the next guy in charge would be any less belligerent (indeed, they may take power seeking vengeance).

[Fox1norfolk]

5 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

as an aside, I would have no doubt that many people from difference sectors of  the world wide secret service community are plotting his assassination as we speak.

I am pretty sure that a Plan B exists for such a scenario. He is surrounded by his close puppets, but outside of this inner circle must be a group of diplomatic contacts who will provide all the information required for his removal. The imminent threat of a global nuclear war by basically one man then action has be taken. 

[MPH]

9 minutes ago, Fox1norfolk said:

I am pretty sure that a Plan B exists for such a scenario. He is surrounded by his close puppets, but outside of this inner circle must be a group of diplomatic contacts who will provide all the information required for his removal. The imminent threat of a global nuclear war by basically one man then action has be taken. 

 

Even Hitler had people in his inner circle who tried to assassinate him. 

[Fox1norfolk]

2 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Even Hitler had people in his inner circle who tried to assassinate him. 

 

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Even Hitler had people in his inner circle who tried to assassinate him. 

 

3 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Even Hitler had people in his inner circle who tried to assassinate him. 

Putin is a danger to the whole world, so it could be a international plan to remove him. There is a slight chance he could be replaced by someone with the same philosophy, but bearing in mind the leading economics are saying it will take at least 10 years for Russia to recover from the sanctions, then whoever takes control of the country has to co-operate with the rest of the world.

[String fellow]

1 hour ago, The Fox Covert said:

Absolutely true. Putin is totally untrustworthy. Any concession of territory to Putin and he will see it as a sign of weakness. He will rebuild his army, make sure they are better equipped and trained, and have another go in a few years time. There definitely is a master plan to rebuild the Soviet Empire and there have been plenty of clues to how it will go. Ukraine is just the start. If he can take Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will be next, then Estonia and the land he needs to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad.

Now he has realised the Ukrainian people are completely against him his army has started rounding up people in Mariupol and sending them to labour camps in the far East of Russia to be forcibly Russified. Shades of the Nazi Final Solution in 1941. Vladolf Putler!

If Vladolf Putler wants to link the Russian motherland with the Kaliningrad Oblast then Lithuania and Latvia need to be destroyed first. But doing that will result in Kaliningrad being destroyed by NATO, so I doubt it will happen. When the Ukraine invasion first started, I suggested that NATO should blockade Kaliningrad by land, sea and air, as a show of force against Russia - the only language that they understand. At present, they'll bide their time, knowing that economic sanctions can be got round or will eventually fizzle out, whilst the prize of a partly-destroyed Ukraine will be theirs for keeps.

Edited 21 March 2022 by String fellow

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, String fellow said:

If Vladolf Putler wants to link the Russian motherland with the Kaliningrad Oblast then Lithuania and Latvia need to be destroyed first. But doing that will result in Kaliningrad being destroyed by NATO, so I doubt it will happen. When the Ukraine invasion first started, I suggested that NATO should blockade Kalinigrad by land, sea and air, as a show of force against Russia - the only language that they understand. At present, they'll bide their time, knowing that economic sanctions can be got round and will eventually fizzle out, whilst the prize of a partly-destroyed Ukraine will be theirs for keeps.

Interesting.

 

I wonder how such a blockade would be viewed by Russian forces. Would they sit on their hands? Or would they end up engaging the Nato forces enforcing the blockade, resulting in direct conflict between Nato and Russian forces and suddenly we have the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again?

[Countryfox]

Interesting catch up here on whats going on ...  according to one lad a peace deal is very close now cus his lecturers have said so ..   whilst another reckons that it doesn't matter what the Ukrainians want because we need to tell them that WW3 will start and we will all die if they don't give up big chunks of their country and roll over.   Hope mad Vlad ain't reading this as he'd be laughing his pants off.   Putin is behaving in a manner very similar to Hitler ...   and how would you expect him to react to this ? ...   Putin is a bully (and a war criminal) and only respects strength ...  one whiff of weakness and he will push harder and harder and become even more likely to back himself into a corner.  

 

China will play a big part in this ..  if it realises he's gone too far and turns it back that will really help the situation ..  if it supports him then we really are in trouble. 

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

Interesting catch up here on whats going on ...  according to one lad a peace deal is very close now cus his lecturers have said so ..   whilst another reckons that it doesn't matter what the Ukrainians want because we need to tell them that WW3 will start and we will all die if they don't give up big chunks of their country and roll over.   Hope mad Vlad ain't reading this as he'd be laughing his pants off.   Putin is behaving in a manner very similar to Hitler ...   and how would you expect him to react to this ? ...   Putin is a bully (and a war criminal) and only respects strength ...  one whiff of weakness and he will push harder and harder and become even more likely to back himself into a corner.  

 

China will play a big part in this ..  if it realises he's gone too far and turns it back that will really help the situation ..  if it supports him then we really are in trouble. 

Hmm...warmongers with enough nuclear weapons to set civilisation back to the Middle Ages should probably be taken seriously, rather than thinking they're just a bigger version of schoolyard bullies who need to be "shown the firm hand".

 

I would hope that everyone actually involved at a high level thinks the same, for the sake of the aforementioned civilisation.

[Blarmy]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

Hmm...warmongers with enough nuclear weapons to set civilisation back to the Middle Ages should probably be taken seriously, rather than thinking they're just a bigger version of schoolyard bullies who need to be "shown the firm hand".

 

I would hope that everyone actually involved at a high level thinks the same, for the sake of the aforementioned civilisation.

Out of interest, if you were suddenly voted President Of The Entire Planet (Except Russia) what would you do?