Ukraine

[String fellow]

19 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Interesting.

 

I wonder how such a blockade would be viewed by Russian forces. Would they sit on their hands? Or would they end up engaging the Nato forces enforcing the blockade, resulting in direct conflict between Nato and Russian forces and suddenly we have the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again?

It could be argued that the current situation is a catastrophe for Ukraine, whereas the Cuban missile crisis was something where only one U-2 airman got killed, and was perhaps a bargaining tool created by Russia to get NATO missiles removed from Turkey. 

Edited 21 March 2022 by String fellow

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, Blarmy said:

Out of interest, if you were suddenly voted President Of The Entire Planet (Except Russia) what would you do?

Exactly what is happening now. Supply the Ukrainians, keep them fighting and let things roll until the Russians are so bloodied that they accept a deal that allows them to save a little face, leave Ukraine alone and piss off.

 

If they then set their sights elsewhere, well... there was never going to be any preventing that that wouldn't result in direct conflict between Nato and Russia anyway, so I'd know I'd done all I could, I'd commit the necessary forces to defeat the Russians conventionally and then commend the soul of humanity to whatever powers govern the universe and hope the next intelligent species on this planet would be smarter than us stupid twats.

 

10 minutes ago, String fellow said:

It could be argued that the current situation is a catastrophe for Ukraine, whereas the Cuban missile crisis was something where nobody got killed, and was perhaps a bargaining tool created by Russia to get NATO missiles removed from Turkey. 

That no one got killed in those thirteen days (apart from a recon pilot) was down to one part skilled diplomatic maneuvering, and one part simple, blind, stupid luck. It would be wise to not chance our luck again, not with those stakes.

 

The Jupiter Missiles were part of the issue, but not all of it, I don't think.

 

But back to the present, I really don't get the enthusiasm to play nuclear roulette for the sake of "appearing strong" here. Not when other options exist that can salvage at least most of Ukraine and not come to that.

 

Edited 21 March 2022 by leicsmac

[westernpark]

18 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

Interesting catch up here on whats going on ...  according to one lad a peace deal is very close now cus his lecturers have said so ..   whilst another reckons that it doesn't matter what the Ukrainians want because we need to tell them that WW3 will start and we will all die if they don't give up big chunks of their country and roll over.   Hope mad Vlad ain't reading this as he'd be laughing his pants off.   Putin is behaving in a manner very similar to Hitler ...   and how would you expect him to react to this ? ...   Putin is a bully (and a war criminal) and only respects strength ...  one whiff of weakness and he will push harder and harder and become even more likely to back himself into a corner.  

 

China will play a big part in this ..  if it realises he's gone too far and turns it back that will really help the situation ..  if it supports him then we really are in trouble. 

Thanks for the reference and being called a lad.

I believe a ceasefire is close to an extent(by April). It’s also important to remember this has been going on for years and anyone I have referenced, has emphasised this is as the next stage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Not to belittle the fact that Russia have completely invaded a country. So this is war currently. 

Putin laughs at the west anyway, and I imagine if he had seen some posters become hysterical regarding end of world scenario whilst also comparing him to hitler and suggesting some sort of a-team take out of him. Effectively playing nuclear roulette.

We have partly created this problem, hence the guy knowing he can do what he’s doing. This is a long game and there will be intermittent peace and so forth. He has been a war criminal longer than this episode.

 

[westernpark]

Furthermore, I don’t buy this notion that Putin would have wanted to invade a NATO country before the current invasion. 

[Dahnsouff]

54 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

....

 

But back to the present, I really don't get the enthusiasm to play nuclear roulette for the sake of "appearing strong" here. Not when other options exist that can salvage at least most of Ukraine and not come to that.

 

I suspect you do understand it though, as this is the age where respect and saving face is far more important than humane issues, and is a sad product of a world fueled by self serving new truths made by the few.

[Countryfox]

45 minutes ago, westernpark said:

Thanks for the reference and being called a lad.

I believe a ceasefire is close to an extent(by April). It’s also important to remember this has been going on for years and anyone I have referenced, has emphasised this is as the next stage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Not to belittle the fact that Russia have completely invaded a country. So this is war currently. 

Putin laughs at the west anyway, and I imagine if he had seen some posters become hysterical regarding end of world scenario whilst also comparing him to hitler and suggesting some sort of a-team take out of him. Effectively playing nuclear roulette.

We have partly created this problem, hence the guy knowing he can do what he’s doing. This is a long game and there will be intermittent peace and so forth. He has been a war criminal longer than this episode.

 

 

Well said lad ! ...  and a good restrained reply ...  .    See above ..  have you heard anything concrete about a ceasefire being close (apart from what we have seen on the news) cus they still seem miles apart at the moment to me and finding middle ground is going to be very difficult when you a raving despot on one side and a strong leader of a country whose civilians have been ruthlessly blown to bits on the other.   Obviously we all hope it does happen but I think there are several other factors that have to be played out first and unfortunately they lead in very different directions.

[Countryfox]

1 hour ago, Blarmy said:

Out of interest, if you were suddenly voted President Of The Entire Planet (Except Russia) what would you do?

 

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Exactly what is happening now. Supply the Ukrainians, keep them fighting and let things roll until the Russians are so bloodied that they accept a deal that allows them to save a little face, leave Ukraine alone and piss off.

 

 

100% behind you on that one Mac.  

 

[kenny]

1 minute ago, Countryfox said:

 

Well said lad ! ...  and a good restrained reply ...  .    See above ..  have you heard anything concrete about a ceasefire being close (apart from what we have seen on the news) cus they still seem miles apart at the moment to me and finding middle ground is going to be very difficult when you a raving despot on one side and a strong leader of a country whose civilians have been ruthlessly blown to bits on the other.   Obviously we all hope it does happen but I think there are several other factors that have to be played out first and unfortunately they lead in very different directions.

Even if there is a ceasefire it isn't over until the west stops its sanctions against Russia.

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, kenny said:

Even if there is a ceasefire it isn't over until the west stops its sanctions against Russia.

Stopping the killing is a massive step.   

[Blarmy]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I really don't get the enthusiasm to play nuclear roulette for the sake of "appearing strong" here. Not when other options exist that can salvage at least most of Ukraine and not come to that.

 

Sometimes, appearing strong stops a situation escalating. We don’t know if it’s the right thing here but it’s why people are discussing it, a point you seem to be continually missing.

 

Edit - I also believe that what is being done now is the right thing.

Edited 21 March 2022 by Blarmy

[kenny]

Just now, Countryfox said:

Stopping the killing is a massive step.   

It is as a starting point but it won't end until Putin is replaced. That will require the west to continue punishing Russia for its actions regardless of what is agreed in Ukraine.

 

As Russia is weakened, this makes Putin more and more dangerous.

[westernpark]

12 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

Well said lad ! ...  and a good restrained reply ...  .    See above ..  have you heard anything concrete about a ceasefire being close (apart from what we have seen on the news) cus they still seem miles apart at the moment to me and finding middle ground is going to be very difficult when you a raving despot on one side and a strong leader of a country whose civilians have been ruthlessly blown to bits on the other.   Obviously we all hope it does happen but I think there are several other factors that have to be played out first and unfortunately they lead in very different directions.

My assessment is based on the changing rhetoric of Zelensky(publicly conceding no NATO and being loud about continuing peace talks) and the Russian advancement to surround cities and threaten by just being present(strangulation), would suggest Putin is looking to force Zelensky into some sort of submission.

[Countryfox]

16 minutes ago, kenny said:

It is as a starting point but it won't end until Putin is replaced. That will require the west to continue punishing Russia for its actions regardless of what is agreed in Ukraine.

 

As Russia is weakened, this makes Putin more and more dangerous.

After this I don’t think he will try anything more ..  the west has had a wake up call and will not drop their guard again. Defences will be increased to a point where even that mad tw@t wouldn’t dare try anything. 

[kenny]

6 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

After this I don’t think he will try anything more ..  the west has had a wake up call and will not drop their guard again. Defences will be increased to a point where even that mad tw@t wouldn’t dare try anything. 

I hope you are correct.

 

I worry that his idealogical ambitions are far more important than the value of human life. It is documented that the Russians do not have the same views on using Nuclear Weapons that we do in the west and see them as part of their arsenal rather than a deterrent not to be used.

[Countryfox]

11 minutes ago, kenny said:

It is documented that the Russians do not have the same views on using Nuclear Weapons that we do in the west ..

 

In which case we’re all fooked ! ..  so get out there and party !  ..   

[kenny]

6 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

In which case we’re all fooked ! ..  so get out there and party !  ..   

Like it's 1999!

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, kenny said:

I hope you are correct.

 

I worry that his idealogical ambitions are far more important than the value of human life. It is documented that the Russians do not have the same views on using Nuclear Weapons that we do in the west and see them as part of their arsenal rather than a deterrent not to be used.

If only we had a system that could track a missile from its launch consisting of lots of small heat detecting satellites positioned around the globe that would allow lazers to be fired at the missile...

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Russia will lose its 500th documented tank tonight. Absolutely staggering loses. For context the UK has just over 400 Challenger 2s total.

 

[WigstonWanderer]

5 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Russia will lose its 500th documented tank tonight. Absolutely staggering loses. For context the UK has just over 400 Challenger 2s total.

 

How many have they in total?

[MPH]

What has Putin ever done that warrants peoples’ trust in him sticking to any negotiated settlement?

 

he’ll just do what he did with Crimea and the Donbas- break the agreements, pile a bunch of troops in and attack from an even closer position.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

24 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

How many have they in total?

Oh fvck knows, their doctrine is to basically never actually scrap anything just to put it all in storage. Doesn't mean any of it is serviceable or that they have anyone to man them but I wouldn't be surprised if they have 100k. 

[MPH]

I checked  3 different sources one said Russia has 12,400 tanks, another said 13,000 tanks and another said 13,300 tanks.  It doesn’t seem that anyone knows for sure how many they have but north of 12k seems certain.

[Salisbury Fox]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Russia will lose its 500th documented tank tonight. Absolutely staggering loses. For context the UK has just over 400 Challenger 2s total.

 

Ukrainian farmers have more tanks than the UK!  I have posted this before but you can check out confirmed equipment losses on both sides here: 

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[Sol thewall Bamba]

11 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

Ukrainian farmers have more tanks than the UK!  I have posted this before but you can check out confirmed equipment losses on both sides here: 

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Yeah that's what I've been following. Phenomenal amount of work to authenticate and document everything they get sent.

[leicsmac]

9 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

I suspect you do understand it though, as this is the age where respect and saving face is far more important than humane issues, and is a sad product of a world fueled by self serving new truths made by the few.

TBH I think that has been always thus - one of the (smaller) reasons the first Opium War started was because a British official didn't kowtow to the Chinese Emperor. Other similar examples exist too.

 

I do get the human propensity for ego throughout time, I just don't get the lack of forethought and self-preservation that is displayed when it clashes with the ability to destroy human civilisation wholesale - a power that has really only been available to humanity for a little over the last half a century.

 

 

9 hours ago, Blarmy said:

Sometimes, appearing strong stops a situation escalating. We don’t know if it’s the right thing here but it’s why people are discussing it, a point you seem to be continually missing.

 

Edit - I also believe that what is being done now is the right thing.

No, I understand where people are coming from here and under conventional circumstances I would have more time for it. As per above, I just reject it as an option where the appearance of strength can be met, at any time, by a response that destroys both parties. For me, that possibility almost always renders such shows of strength to be hollow and having little meaning because such shows rely on the threat of conquering/victory to back them up, which with nuclear weapons, is something that can never be guaranteed.

 

I don't see how shows of strength would stop escalation in this case when both parties know they have that unstoppable, irrevocable option in their arsenal. So overall, I can't see how it's the right thing and that's why I'm not getting why people are discussing it.

 

6 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

If only we had a system that could track a missile from its launch consisting of lots of small heat detecting satellites positioned around the globe that would allow lazers to be fired at the missile...

If only.

 

More's the pity, existing ABM systems are nowhere near good enough to nullify the threat of MAD. And, to be honest, it would open a whole new can of worms if they were. Reagan knew that in the 80's.