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Sampson

Ukraine

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9 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I'm going to be honest, I think both Stoltenberg and the US rep giving the Russians both barrels regarding their nuclear weapons policy is rather a load of hot air, for a couple of reasons: firstly, the US nuclear release protocol is even more "loose" than the Russian one (first use policy under more conditions than the Russian one) and secondly because the posture being indicated by the Russians has always been their position (first use if the existence of the state is gravely threatened) so it's hardly news.

I think that’s 3 “whataboutisms” now.  I’m pretty sure you’re a great guy who means well, but you’re also really fvcking annoying.

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56 minutes ago, Blarmy said:

I think that’s 3 “whataboutisms” now.  I’m pretty sure you’re a great guy who means well, but you’re also really fvcking annoying.

Apologies, I thought it was a current event that was worth the writing. I'm not entirely sure what about it was inaccurate, so what would your take on it be, then?

 

NB. I hope this isn't about the disagreement we've had recently concerning the possibility of nuclear holocaust and what might/should be done to prevent it.

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On 22/03/2022 at 14:50, st albans fox said:

They had an option to do this under an international agreement but I’m not sure they’ve actually done it ??

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkey-rejects-Russia-s-request-for-navy-ships-to-pass-Bosporus

There's a lot of other sources/articles on this topic but in general they have actually done it 

 

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5 hours ago, Detroit Blues said:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkey-rejects-Russia-s-request-for-navy-ships-to-pass-Bosporus

There's a lot of other sources/articles on this topic but in general they have actually done it 

Reading up on the treaty, it seems that Russian Black Sea port naval vessels are allowed access. That’s going to be more than enough and given that Russia knew what they were about to do, most of what they need will already be available there. 
 

it’s not quite the sanction that was trailed initially …..

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Catch 22 ..  Ukraine doing well and not only holding Russians, but, in some places, actually pushing them back. I’m nervous every morning now to put the news on  ..  Putin will get even more angry and potentially unleash some terrible weapon on them ..  chemical biological limited nuclear ??? ..  take your pick ..  :mellow:

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1 hour ago, Countryfox said:

Catch 22 ..  Ukraine doing well and not only holding Russians, but, in some places, actually pushing them back. I’m nervous every morning now to put the news on  ..  Putin will get even more angry and potentially unleash some terrible weapon on them ..  chemical biological limited nuclear ??? ..  take your pick ..  :mellow:

 

 

hes also not committing all his army to Ukraine. Not even close to it… there’s always the chance he will send in even more troops in but I don’t think he will. He’s paranoid about leaving mainland Russia open to attack..

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9 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 

hes also not committing all his army to Ukraine. Not even close to it… there’s always the chance he will send in even more troops in but I don’t think he will. He’s paranoid about leaving mainland Russia open to attack..

This is what i don't get, Russia has got about 900,000 active military personel, obviously not all are troops, 180-200 thousand of their troops are in Ukraine, why would they be replacing dead troops with recent conscripts? surely they would replace them with experienced troops and, why would they be enlisting troops from other countries if their army is so vast. Surely 500,000 troops is plenty enough to defend their mainland. considering any attack would be coming from the west anyway.

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My fear for Ukraine is the better they become, the more desperate Putin becomes. The war has so far been a disaster for Putin, I somehow dont see him backing down. Surely people of Russia must realise his madness is driving its country to it's own self destruction. 

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I've read multiple reports that Ukraine has pushed the Russian forces back from Kyiv and also Mykolaiv in the south. If it's true that Russia is falling back from Mykolaiv then that would suggest they have abandoned trying to capture Odessa which was the purpose of that push. It also seems increasingly unlikely that Russia is capable of assaulting Kyiv. Russian forces seem to be now focusing on the east, trying to capture Mariupol and to push down south-east of Kharkiv to try and surround the Ukrainian eastern front. 

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21 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I've read multiple reports that Ukraine has pushed the Russian forces back from Kyiv and also Mykolaiv in the south. If it's true that Russia is falling back from Mykolaiv then that would suggest they have abandoned trying to capture Odessa which was the purpose of that push. It also seems increasingly unlikely that Russia is capable of assaulting Kyiv. Russian forces seem to be now focusing on the east, trying to capture Mariupol and to push down south-east of Kharkiv to try and surround the Ukrainian eastern front. 

I’ve also read they’ve surrounded the Russians in Irpin and Bucha. I cannot believe how effective the Ukrainian forces have been. So happy we’ve put our full weight behind them by sending them so many NLAWs.

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4 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

News that one of the main Russian news channels is actually saying that strategic nuclear weapons should be used  ..  ffs these people are unreal ! 

I saw a segment on that last night.

 

These people do realise that no one ever wins in such a scenario, right? I simply cannot get my head around how people might think differently.

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14 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

News that one of the main Russian news channels is actually saying that strategic nuclear weapons should be used  ..  ffs these people are unreal ! 

Let's hope and pray that they aren't mentally preparing the Russian public for such an outrageous attack. How would the world react? Probably with broad smiles in North Korea.

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55 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I saw a segment on that last night.

 

These people do realise that no one ever wins in such a scenario, right? I simply cannot get my head around how people might think differently.

I think they're under the impression that the west hasn't got nuclear weapons.

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1 minute ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think they're under the impression that the west hasn't got nuclear weapons.

I honestly can't believe that they would think that.

 

It's on a level of absurdity around thinking Peter Taylor was a good Leicester manager.

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1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I saw a segment on that last night.

 

These people do realise that no one ever wins in such a scenario, right? I simply cannot get my head around how people might think differently.

Let’s say that Russia decides to use a strategic ‘small’ nuclear weapon in a remote part of ukraine - a weapon of size and used in weather conditions such that there is no chance of NATO countries being affected by fall out. 

 

the idea being that ukraine are forced to accept they must rapidly negotiate a settlement which is very Russian centric 

 

Surely the west will continue to play the ‘not getting directly involved’ card …… if anything, the actual use of a nuclear weapon makes them sh1t themselves even more. Putin pretty much knows that NATO will stay on the sidelines re direct involvement unless he directly affects the safety of NATO countries.  

 

UN will be of no use for obvious reasons 

 

China still won’t care -  they will probably feel emboldened in the western pacific given that they are the sole nuclear nation 

 

russia will have broken the ‘no use nuclear weapon’ taboo ……

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3 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

I firmly believe NATO should / should have enforced a no fly zone over the Ukraine. Russia sees NATO as weak, and perhaps they are. All very worrying. 

What would have happened had a NATO member shot down a Russian plane, or vice versa?

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Putin must be concerned now that Ukraine are starting to / have made his military ground forces look like a paper tiger .

Baltic states and Poland must be greatly heartened and Russia have demonstrated that in a conventional war with NATO their army would in all likelihood be annihilated 

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1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

no one knows - perhaps nothing ..........   and then maybe russia would be less inclined to make any sorties over ukraine thereafter ......

Feels more and more like it goes one of two ways, either an exit strategy is made available or presents itself and a victorious retreat occurs, OR the worse case, he escalates.

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Couple of things ..  do we still send some form of aid to India ? ..  are they still not calling Putin out ?? ..  you know where I’m going with this. 
 

We are supplying Ukraine with arms yes  ..  Putin knows this and hasn’t done anything about it.   So ..  if Putin drops a strategic nuclear or chemical weapon we give a corresponding weapon to the Ukrainians ..  and we let him know that we will do that.  Imo it is worth the risk of him stamping his foot for two reasons ..  it will show we are prepared to meet him if he goes to the next level and will stop him from thinking we will never stand up to him. 

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1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

no one knows - perhaps nothing ..........   and then maybe russia would be less inclined to make any sorties over ukraine thereafter ......

We have supplied them with the very advanced shoulder mounter anti aircraft missiles. These are so accurate they claim to be able to hit a target the size of an orange a  twice the speed of sound. So in realty these could sort out any Russian aircraft. The only downside is that if the Russians captured one then we lose our tech knowhow.

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3 hours ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

I firmly believe NATO should / should have enforced a no fly zone over the Ukraine. Russia sees NATO as weak, and perhaps they are. All very worrying. 

Now I see why you're SN is "Dangerous" 

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