Ukraine

[Parafox]

2 hours ago, surrifox said:

Putin must be concerned now that Ukraine are starting to / have made his military ground forces look like a paper tiger .

Baltic states and Poland must be greatly heartened and Russia have demonstrated that in a conventional war with NATO their army would in all likelihood be annihilated 

The word "conventional" is worrying . He knows he'd lose and that's why it's likely he'd pre-empt a conventional war by using limited non-conventional strikes.

[Countryfox]

He’s done the false flag bit by claiming non conventional weapons were found in Ukraine ..  he’s got his tame media to suggest (on behalf of all Russians of course) that the best thing to do would be to use strategic nuclear weapons ..  he’s following his usual one dimensional path ..   it’s gone a bit quiet on his invasion/special operation front ..  the Ukrainians are fighting back ..  I fear the worst. 

[MPH]

3 hours ago, Fox1norfolk said:

We have supplied them with the very advanced shoulder mounter anti aircraft missiles. These are so accurate they claim to be able to hit a target the size of an orange a  twice the speed of sound. So in realty these could sort out any Russian aircraft. The only downside is that if the Russians captured one then we lose our tech knowhow.

?

 

 

 

Do you mean the Javelin?

 

theres 23 nations in the world that have the Javelin. Even if the Russians don’t have any themselves, they’ll know all about it. It’s actually been around for more than 20 years.

 

 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, filthyfox said:

I have declared war on all Russians in the sphere of PC/mobile gaming.

 

I am not alone in this.

 

besides, they are not sanctions, we are just running a special financial operation and we are doing it to save their economy…

[Zear0]

35 minutes ago, MPH said:

?

 

 

 

Do you mean the Javelin?

 

theres 23 nations in the world that have the Javelin. Even if the Russians don’t have any themselves, they’ll know all about it. It’s actually been around for more than 20 years.

 

 

Would guess he meant StarStreak not Javelin. 

Edited 24 March 2022 by Zear0

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Let’s say that Russia decides to use a strategic ‘small’ nuclear weapon in a remote part of ukraine - a weapon of size and used in weather conditions such that there is no chance of NATO countries being affected by fall out. 

 

the idea being that ukraine are forced to accept they must rapidly negotiate a settlement which is very Russian centric 

 

Surely the west will continue to play the ‘not getting directly involved’ card …… if anything, the actual use of a nuclear weapon makes them sh1t themselves even more. Putin pretty much knows that NATO will stay on the sidelines re direct involvement unless he directly affects the safety of NATO countries.  

 

UN will be of no use for obvious reasons 

 

China still won’t care -  they will probably feel emboldened in the western pacific given that they are the sole nuclear nation 

 

russia will have broken the ‘no use nuclear weapon’ taboo ……

Interesting scenario.

 

My initial thoughts would be that, if it is detonated in an area designed to have no casualties whatsoever, it wouldn't actually change much - for the same reasons a weapon wasn't used against a remote area of Japan before Hiroshima, being that it will be seen just as a bluff. I don't think that it would have much of an effect on the negotiating landscape.

 

If one, however, is used on a population centre, or even a military target, then all bets are off.

 

I simply cannot envision a scenario where Russia and NATO are involved where the single use of a nuclear weapon that takes lives deliberately does not escalate directly to nuclear holocaust.

 

And, quite frankly, I'm terrified of anyone who thinks otherwise because their way of thought is a direct gateway to that holocaust.

 

 

8 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

What would have happened had a NATO member shot down a Russian plane, or vice versa?

Likely escalation to nuclear war.

 

Not that that matters to DT, evidently.

 

8 hours ago, st albans fox said:

no one knows - perhaps nothing ..........   and then maybe russia would be less inclined to make any sorties over ukraine thereafter ......

I'm thinking that "perhaps" perhaps isn't good enough when civilisation itself rests on the outcome.

 

Nuclear roulette isn't as exciting as some people believe it to be.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Was reading an interesting thread from an ex special forces guy last night. In the majority of conflicts equipment, training, logistics all pale into insignificance against the pure will to win. The Russian morale is so low and the Ukrainian desire to win/survive is so high, the recent Ukrainian counter attacks should hardly be surprising. 

 

Only down side if the Russians start getting chased back to the border is it would probably increase the likelihood of little man Putin doing something stupid. 

[ian__marshall]

I think some of the posters in this thread seem absolutely obsessed with the idea that this war will lead to deployment of Nuclear weapons and  subsequent end of humanity. 

 

Let's not underestimate the will of other nations in this saga. For as much as some seem to be taking a back seat and cosying up to/not condoning Russia's actions when push comes to shove ultimately they're very self centred and will seek self preservation. Nuclear escalation will impact everyone globally even those not targeted (Any survivors of all the physical effects of nuclear war simply wouldn't survive the economic impacts).

 

If anyone honestly thinks that China for one would not intervene if Putin looked even close to pushing the button are seriously not looking at the broader political picture. They may be avoiding involvement but they've got things pretty cushy at the moment economically and Xi Jinping won't let Putin threaten the stability of his nation and people regardless of how strong Putin perceives that relationship to be. 

Edited 25 March 2022 by ian__marshall

[westernpark]

13 minutes ago, ian__marshall said:

I think some of the posters in this thread seem absolutely obsessed with the idea that this war will lead to deployment of Nuclear weapons and  subsequent end of humanity. 

 

Let's not underestimate the will of other nations in this saga. For as much as some seem to be taking a back seat and cosying up to/not condoning Russia's actions when push comes to shove ultimately they're very self centred and will seek self preservation. Nuclear escalation will impact everyone globally even those not targeted (Any survivors of all the physical effects of nuclear war simply wouldn't survive the economic impacts).

 

If anyone honestly thinks that China for one would not intervene if Putin looked even close to pushing the button are seriously not looking at the broader political picture. They may be avoiding involvement but they've got things pretty cushy at the moment economically and Xi Jinping won't let Putin threaten the stability of his nation and people regardless of how strong Putin perceives that relationship to be. 

I agree this is a factor as to why nuclear escalation would not happen. I’d also argue that NATO wouldn’t escalate if a strategic nuclear weapon was dropped on Ukraine. They’d respond but not with a nuclear weapon. 
 

[Beechey]

There’s a pocket of 10,000 Russian soldiers being encircled by Ukrainian forces to the West of Kyiv.

Edited 25 March 2022 by Beechey

[leicsmac]

51 minutes ago, ian__marshall said:

I think some of the posters in this thread seem absolutely obsessed with the idea that this war will lead to deployment of Nuclear weapons and  subsequent end of humanity. 

 

Let's not underestimate the will of other nations in this saga. For as much as some seem to be taking a back seat and cosying up to/not condoning Russia's actions when push comes to shove ultimately they're very self centred and will seek self preservation. Nuclear escalation will impact everyone globally even those not targeted (Any survivors of all the physical effects of nuclear war simply wouldn't survive the economic impacts).

 

If anyone honestly thinks that China for one would not intervene if Putin looked even close to pushing the button are seriously not looking at the broader political picture. They may be avoiding involvement but they've got things pretty cushy at the moment economically and Xi Jinping won't let Putin threaten the stability of his nation and people regardless of how strong Putin perceives that relationship to be. 

Speaking purely for myself, I consider it a possible, but thankfully by no means certain,  consequence of escalation driven by jingoism, the well meaning desire to "do something", or a mix of the two. Because it is exactly that.

 

What's said here is absolutely true, but do we really want to stake the future of civilisation on China or another actor having enough influence and power to stop Russia if they were so inclined? Hopefully it's the case, but again, the stakes are so high it would be foolhardy to not consider nuclear weapons as a high priority issue here.

[Fox1norfolk]

20 hours ago, MPH said:

?

 

 

 

Do you mean the Javelin?

 

theres 23 nations in the world that have the Javelin. Even if the Russians don’t have any themselves, they’ll know all about it. It’s actually been around for more than 20 years.

 

 

Anti aircraft missile is Starstreak not Javelin 

[yorkie1999]

Something appears to be happening,  possible withdrawal to concentrate on the Donbas region. I think the real threat is from this nutter.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/mar/25/kim-jong-un-stars-in-film-of-missile-launch-on-north-korean-tv-video

 

.

    

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Something appears to be happening,  possible withdrawal to concentrate on the Donbas region. I think the real threat is from this nutter.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/mar/25/kim-jong-un-stars-in-film-of-missile-launch-on-north-korean-tv-video

 

.

    

Intelligence suggests that since the Russian army has failed to seize any major Ukrainian city through its spearhead from Belarus - and its ground operations have been so plagued by logistical difficulties together with tactical ineptitude in addition to fierce Ukrainian resistance, the focus is now on the east. This is a way for Moscow to declare victory in a region that has already seen significant advances and gains over the last month - unlike the rest of the country. This is possibly the Kremlin to spinning the mission of their faltering invasion into being solely a mission to 'liberate' the disputed territories in the Donbas region and thus claim an overwhelming success. The towns and cities that have been laid to waste elsewhere, the indiscriminate slaughter of innocents, the war crimes that have been committed, and the complete humiliation of their armed forces alongside the huge losses and casualties inflicted upon them will ensure that history records it as otherwise.

[Sly]

Whatever they try to claim, history will always know they wanted to take all of Ukraine and at this point. FAILED MISERABLY.

[st albans fox]

23 minutes ago, Sly said:

Whatever they try to claim, history will always know they wanted to take all of Ukraine and at this point. FAILED MISERABLY.

Is there much to be gained by waving dicks around in the short term and trying to embarrass putin and the Russian forces on the ‘world stage’

 

the primary aim for everyone at the moment should be a ceasefire with serious negs to make it permanent  

[Bellend Sebastian]

I think most of us have wanted to drive a tank over our boss at some point, so kudos to those Russian lads for at last making the dream real

[Dahnsouff]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Is there much to be gained by waving dicks around in the short term and trying to embarrass putin and the Russian forces on the ‘world stage’

 

the primary aim for everyone at the moment should be a ceasefire with serious negs to make it permanent  

 Quite so, there are no winners in this horrible episode and ridiculing Russia would hardly be a savvy tactic for ensuring peace.

[MPH]

 

if the Russians are indeed now focusing on the Donbas region then that can only be considered. MAJOR victory for the Ukrainians. However I don’t think they’ll sit back and start the repairing… I think they’ll continue chasing them even into the Donbas area.. which I think might be a bit foolish but, it’s Ukrainian territory so I guess that’s there choice..

[bovril]

[surrifox]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Is there much to be gained by waving dicks around in the short term and trying to embarrass putin and the Russian forces on the ‘world stage’

 

the primary aim for everyone at the moment should be a ceasefire with serious negs to make it permanent  

Yes I Get that but let’s not forget that this insufferable pr**k has destroyed large swathes of a modern civilised country and killed or displaced thousands upon thousands of its citizens on a mad obsessive drive to bring back a past that no- one but he yearns for . If his position is weakened and his military degraded I for one wouldn’t be bothered about providing  a soft landing 

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Is there much to be gained by waving dicks around in the short term and trying to embarrass putin and the Russian forces on the ‘world stage’

 

the primary aim for everyone at the moment should be a ceasefire with serious negs to make it permanent  

That wasn't the point being made and that is indeed the primary aim - no one is suggesting otherwise. 

 

1 hour ago, Dahnsouff said:

 Quite so, there are no winners in this horrible episode and ridiculing Russia would hardly be a savvy tactic for ensuring peace.

The "ridicule" is all of their own making. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

10 hours ago, Beechey said:

There’s a pocket of 10,000 Russian soldiers being encircled by Ukrainian forces to the West of Kyiv.

A lot of news outlets are painting this as a guerilla war, but the Ukrainians are winning pitched battles unit Vs unit. Those 10k could realistically lay down their arms by choice if morale is as low as reported.

 

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, Line-X said:

…

 

The "ridicule" is all of their own making. 

Was that in dispute?

[st albans fox]

We really are the crappiest of the sh1tist when it comes to anything technical within govt ……. its either complete ignorance or a complete lack of care ……

 

Apology after email addresses revealed

The Foreign Office has apologised after mistakenly sharing the email addresses of dozens of people who were living in Ukraine and seeking refuge in the UK.

It failed to hide recipients' emails when it sent out a mass email asking those seeking help whether they had managed to leave Ukraine.

The email was sent to 42 recipients on 20 March.

BBC Radio 4's PM programme was alerted to the breach by Sam who left Kyiv with his partner having first sought Foreign Office advice. 

He said it was a "huge security risk" that could see them targeted by Russia.

"I would say we have had a weak form of generic apology, with ... no action, no real formal apology, no real public apology. Nothing that is putting my mind at rest," he said.

The Foreign Office suggestion to "maybe try looking out for any spam emails" was "weak and woefully inadequate", he said.

Last year the Ministry of Defence twice mistakenly shared the email addresses of Afghans who wanted to relocate to the UK as the Taliban were taking over the country.