Ukraine

[SpacedX]

Southern Front. Affiliated content was posted on this forum several times by a member in defence of Russia prior to the invasion. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61441192

Edited 29 May 2022 by Line-X

[weller54]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

The rumours that Putin has slow but terminal cancer aren't going away, by the sounds of it.

Good... let's hope it's long and painful.

[The Fox Covert]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

The rumours that Putin has slow but terminal cancer aren't going away, by the sounds of it.

 

8 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Good... let's hope it's long and painful.

This is not as good news as it appears at first sight. Because of the lack of checks and balances in the Russian Constitution Putin is essentially a gangland boss on a colossal scale. Quite likely the wealthiest man in the world because no major business deal takes place in Russia unless Putin gets a stake. If he is pushed out the likely replacement will be half a generation younger and a great deal more energetic. Ukraine does not need an opponent with an army which is much better organised and motivated, and has solved its multiple logistics and morale issues. Far better that decisions about the war in Russia are held back by a man increasingly ill and feeble. As long as the rest of the cabal manage to keep his hands off the nuclear button.

[Sly]

16 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Good... let's hope it's long and painful.

I’d like to think it was quick …. As we might get some common sense once he’s gone. 

[Sly]

2 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

 

This is not as good news as it appears at first sight. Because of the lack of checks and balances in the Russian Constitution Putin is essentially a gangland boss on a colossal scale. Quite likely the wealthiest man in the world because no major business deal takes place in Russia unless Putin gets a stake. If he is pushed out the likely replacement will be half a generation younger and a great deal more energetic. Ukraine does not need an opponent with an army which is much better organised and motivated, and has solved its multiple logistics and morale issues. Far better that decisions about the war in Russia are held back by a man increasingly ill and feeble. As long as the rest of the cabal manage to keep his hands off the nuclear button.

Who is the successor? 

[weller54]

14 minutes ago, Sly said:

I’d like to think it was quick …. As we might get some common sense once he’s gone. 

Wouldn't hold your breath if I was you.

[st albans fox]

9 minutes ago, Sly said:

Who is the successor? 

I think they have a Rock Paper Scissors tournament 

St. Petersburg v Moscow politburos

 

 

[leicsmac]

18 minutes ago, Sly said:

I’d like to think it was quick …. As we might get some common sense once he’s gone. 

 

4 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Wouldn't hold your breath if I was you.

Since when was common sense (or indeed, anything besides self-interest) a guiding star in practically any element involving the big national players, I wonder?

[Legend_in_blue]

The Russian ambassador to the UK should not have been given airtime this morning on the BBC.  Fair enough to ask for his views but considering how far these are from the actual reality, I wouldn't have bothered wasting time on him.

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The Russian ambassador to the UK should not have been given airtime this morning on the BBC.  Fair enough to ask for his views but considering how far these are from the actual reality, I wouldn't have bothered wasting time on him.

You realise that I could easily at this point bring up the likes of Mike Yeadon, Toby Young and Ivor Cummins, but I'm above tha...oh, wait. 

 

I do agree with you 'Legend', that it's all rather pointless. The irony nonetheless is priceless. 

[MPH]

12 hours ago, leicsmac said:

The rumours that Putin has slow but terminal cancer aren't going away, by the sounds of it.

i believe this was something we all suggested might be the case  within the first couple of pages of the first thread .

 

 

10 hours ago, The Fox Covert said:

 

This is not as good news as it appears at first sight. Because of the lack of checks and balances in the Russian Constitution Putin is essentially a gangland boss on a colossal scale. Quite likely the wealthiest man in the world because no major business deal takes place in Russia unless Putin gets a stake. If he is pushed out the likely replacement will be half a generation younger and a great deal more energetic. Ukraine does not need an opponent with an army which is much better organised and motivated, and has solved its multiple logistics and morale issues. Far better that decisions about the war in Russia are held back by a man increasingly ill and feeble. As long as the rest of the cabal manage to keep his hands off the nuclear button.

 

whilst what you are saying is something that needs to be considered, don’t underestimate what has been going on behind the scenes within Russias opposition circles. With a bit of Covert help and encouragement from ‘ western powers’, of course. Personally I think we could see a sea of change in Russia once Putin leaves office. You will always  have hardliners but I truly believe an inward facing Russian revolution is just around the corner. I think the Russians will be all too aware of the isolation they and their economy faces in the future should a warmongering hardliner take over who doesn’t have the political nous to keep the west at bay like  Putin has. Sure they’ll get some trade partners but they know the good money comes from the west and anything traded east wont command as good a price.

 

this war in Ukraine might tip the balance of power for decades to come in Russia which has obviously  largely favored left leaning governments for quite some time.. I think their future will bring in a centrist mix of national pride and more welcoming conciliatory political maneuvering that will open their free trade back up ( once Putin has ‘ gone’).

Edited 29 May 2022 by MPH

[Wymsey]

11 hours ago, Sly said:

Who is the successor? 

Bound to be another nutter.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

11 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The Russian ambassador to the UK should not have been given airtime this morning on the BBC.  Fair enough to ask for his views but considering how far these are from the actual reality, I wouldn't have bothered wasting time on him.

Sometimes it's worth watching them occasionally to reaffirm how deluded they actually are.

[The Fox Covert]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

i believe this was something we all suggested might be the case  within the first couple of pages of the first thread .

 

 

 

whilst what you are saying is something that needs to be considered, don’t underestimate what has been going on behind the scenes within Russias opposition circles. With a bit of Covert help and encouragement from ‘ western powers’, of course. Personally I think we could see a sea of change in Russia once Putin leaves office. You will always  have hardliners but I truly believe an inward facing Russian revolution is just around the corner. I think the Russians will be all too aware of the isolation they and their economy faces in the future should a warmongering hardliner take over who doesn’t have the political nous to keep the west at bay like  Putin has. Sure they’ll get some trade partners but they know the good money comes from the west and anything traded east wont command as good a price.

 

this war in Ukraine might tip the balance of power for decades to come in Russia which has obviously  largely favored left leaning governments for quite some time.. I think their future will bring in a centrist mix of national pride and more welcoming conciliatory political maneuvering that will open their free trade back up ( once Putin has ‘ gone’).

I hope you are right about there being a revolution around the corner in Russian. However at the moment all I see around Putin is other hard liners, because Putin has had twenty years to systematically crush any opposition to his regime. I would not describe Putin's government as being left-leaning in any shape or form. Russia is one of the most unequal societies in the world and Putin has successfully replaced the politically bankrupt ideology of the failed Soviet regime with an equally repressive state based on the union of the dictator of a totalitarian state with the Russian Orthodox Church, led by long-term Putin associate Patriarch Kirill. Kirill is widely suspected of being a former KGB agent and even of being Putin's handler. The Eastern Orthodox Churches are no longer united as the Ukrainian patriarchate split from Moscow in 2018. I would describe the current regime in Russia as being a type of Christian Fascism and it has quite a lot in common with the Franco dictatorship in Spain.

[MPH]

1 hour ago, The Fox Covert said:

I hope you are right about there being a revolution around the corner in Russian. However at the moment all I see around Putin is other hard liners, because Putin has had twenty years to systematically crush any opposition to his regime. I would not describe Putin's government as being left-leaning in any shape or form. Russia is one of the most unequal societies in the world and Putin has successfully replaced the politically bankrupt ideology of the failed Soviet regime with an equally repressive state based on the union of the dictator of a totalitarian state with the Russian Orthodox Church, led by long-term Putin associate Patriarch Kirill. Kirill is widely suspected of being a former KGB agent and even of being Putin's handler. The Eastern Orthodox Churches are no longer united as the Ukrainian patriarchate split from Moscow in 2018. I would describe the current regime in Russia as being a type of Christian Fascism and it has quite a lot in common with the Franco dictatorship in Spain.

 

Putin has always said that the break up of the Soviet Union was the single greatest geopolitical tragedy  of the 20th century  and it’s pretty clear  he’s intent re-establishing some form of  past history- it’s widely believed he originally intended to overthrow the Ukranian government very quickly and install a pro-kremlin leader.. In terms of economics, fascism incorporates elements of both capitalism and socialism so i agree that it would be very hard to Put Putin as 100% far left but I feel that if given the chance they would re-establish  the Soviet Union tomorrow, if they could.

[leicsmac]

4 hours ago, MPH said:

i believe this was something we all suggested might be the case  within the first couple of pages of the first thread .

 

 

 

whilst what you are saying is something that needs to be considered, don’t underestimate what has been going on behind the scenes within Russias opposition circles. With a bit of Covert help and encouragement from ‘ western powers’, of course. Personally I think we could see a sea of change in Russia once Putin leaves office. You will always  have hardliners but I truly believe an inward facing Russian revolution is just around the corner. I think the Russians will be all too aware of the isolation they and their economy faces in the future should a warmongering hardliner take over who doesn’t have the political nous to keep the west at bay like  Putin has. Sure they’ll get some trade partners but they know the good money comes from the west and anything traded east wont command as good a price.

 

this war in Ukraine might tip the balance of power for decades to come in Russia which has obviously  largely favored left leaning governments for quite some time.. I think their future will bring in a centrist mix of national pride and more welcoming conciliatory political maneuvering that will open their free trade back up ( once Putin has ‘ gone’).

If I might consider a counterargument, Russia might consider using the BRICS countries alone as a trade option, seeing as they contain close to half the worlds population. Sure, they don't have the purchasing power of Western nations with much less people but that may not be the case forever, given the potential driven by sheer numbers that they have.

 

1 hour ago, MPH said:

 

Putin has always said that the break up of the Soviet Union was the single greatest geopolitical tragedy  of the 20th century  and it’s pretty clear  he’s intent re-establishing some form of  past history- it’s widely believed he originally intended to overthrow the Ukranian government very quickly and install a pro-kremlin leader.. In terms of economics, fascism incorporates elements of both capitalism and socialism so i agree that it would be very hard to Put Putin as 100% far left but I feel that if given the chance they would re-establish  the Soviet Union tomorrow, if they could.

And if I might offer a point of order here, the social policies of the USSR and of this particular Russian government, for one, are pretty different. I don't think you'd see Tereshkova become the first woman in space two years after the first man under this government, for example.

 

It's a kind of imperialist Tsarism with serfdom that Putin is aiming for IMO, not a mirror of the Soviet Union.

[MPH]

23 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If I might consider a counterargument, Russia might consider using the BRICS countries alone as a trade option, seeing as they contain close to half the worlds population. Sure, they don't have the purchasing power of Western nations with much less people but that may not be the case forever, given the potential driven by sheer numbers that they have.

 

And if I might offer a point of order here, the social policies of the USSR and of this particular Russian government, for one, are pretty different. I don't think you'd see Tereshkova become the first woman in space two years after the first man under this government, for example.

 

It's a kind of imperialist Tsarism with serfdom that Putin is aiming for IMO, not a mirror of the Soviet Union.

 

yes the BRICS countries could well be what he turns to but I don’t know if they’ll have the full range of goods they’ll need- right now for example Russia is struggling to produce more military hardware as a lot of the parts they use are unavailable due to the sanctions in place.  I’m also unsure  if Russia allow themselves to be so dependent on so few nations for their trade - let’s face it, it would be mainly India and China- Brazil’s economy is struggling already l and I don’t see that SA would wield much trade influence. Besides that was a classic Soviet tactic- intertwined trade dependence to increased its influence and I’d be very surprised if Russia allowed The Chinese especially such influence over its trading ability. 
 

also, I am not suggesting that Russia will go back to the Soviet days of old but  it’s influence on modern day Russia is undeniable. Yes they’ve embraced the whole oligarchy  fiscal capitalist side of things but their social policies and economic interdependence ideologies feel some what communistish in their origin

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

yes the BRICS countries could well be what he turns to but I don’t know if they’ll have the full range of goods they’ll need- right now for example Russia is struggling to produce more military hardware as a lot of the parts they use are unavailable due to the sanctions in place.  I’m also unsure  if Russia allow themselves to be so dependent on so few nations for their trade - let’s face it, it would be mainly India and China- Brazil’s economy is struggling already l and I don’t see that SA would wield much trade influence. Besides that was a classic Soviet tactic- intertwined trade dependence to increased its influence and I’d be very surprised if Russia allowed The Chinese especially such influence over its trading ability. 
 

also, I am not suggesting that Russia will go back to the Soviet days of old but  it’s influence on modern day Russia is undeniable. Yes they’ve embraced the whole oligarchy  fiscal capitalist side of things but their social policies and economic interdependence ideologies feel some what communistish in their origin

Fair points, though I might argue it would only be India and China for the time being, other untapped markets do exist, especially if the Russians think they can get them economically dependent in the same way that the Chinese have with some nations in Africa.

 

And I wouldn't agree that the current social policies are particularly communist for the reasons above - for all the other things, the Soviets did preach and practise women's rights, for instance, that's not the same as this present regime.

[fox_favourite]

To my untrained eye, it Looks like the Russians have got themselves organised and are making increasingly bigger gains and pushing Ukrainian forces out of the region. They now have momentum. Ukrainians just have to keep fighting to make this too costly for the Russians and then more and more questions will be asked within Russia. 
 

So many lives lost in this conflict. Civilians who just want to go about their daily life, soldiers on both sides, with some not even wanting to be there. Then there’s the food crisis that is building, which will kill people world wide. It’s just ridiculous in my eyes. 
 

Whatever the differences, the food crisis needs to be resolved by all parties. The supply lines of the harvests need to be exported to countries who rely on this…and soon

[Countryfox]

8 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

To my untrained eye, it Looks like the Russians have got themselves organised and are making increasingly bigger gains and pushing Ukrainian forces out of the region. They now have momentum. Ukrainians just have to keep fighting to make this too costly for the Russians and then more and more questions will be asked within Russia. 
 

So many lives lost in this conflict. Civilians who just want to go about their daily life, soldiers on both sides, with some not even wanting to be there. Then there’s the food crisis that is building, which will kill people world wide. It’s just ridiculous in my eyes. 
 

Whatever the differences, the food crisis needs to be resolved by all parties. The supply lines of the harvests need to be exported to countries who rely on this…and soon

 

You are right they have gained momentum but the small incremental advances they are making are at a massive cost to both sides.  When longer range weapons come through for the Ukrainians (Biden has today agreed to get more over on condition they are not to be used to strike targets in Russia) ...  then that momentum will slow.   When that happens it's anyones guess what will happen next.  In the meantime other things need to be moved along as quickly as possible ...  as you have said the main one is the movement of grain etc from the southern ports ...   unfortunately Putin is weaponising the problem and the West might have stand up to him.  We could also do with increasing sanctions even further and getting Finland and Sweden into NATO. Unfortunately I can't see the Russians doing anything to stop Putin (not for a while anyway) and don't forget there are others with the same (if not worse) views that may replace him.

[MPH]

10 hours ago, Countryfox said:

 

You are right they have gained momentum but the small incremental advances they are making are at a massive cost to both sides.  When longer range weapons come through for the Ukrainians (Biden has today agreed to get more over on condition they are not to be used to strike targets in Russia) ...  then that momentum will slow.   When that happens it's anyones guess what will happen next.  In the meantime other things need to be moved along as quickly as possible ...  as you have said the main one is the movement of grain etc from the southern ports ...   unfortunately Putin is weaponising the problem and the West might have stand up to him.  We could also do with increasing sanctions even further and getting Finland and Sweden into NATO. Unfortunately I can't see the Russians doing anything to stop Putin (not for a while anyway) and don't forget there are others with the same (if not worse) views that may replace him.

 

it’s worth noting that the communist party made the biggest gain of any political party in Russia at the last elections..

[gerblod]

On 30/05/2022 at 01:26, leicsmac said:

It's a kind of imperialist Tsarism with serfdom that Putin is aiming for IMO, not a mirror of the Soviet Union.

If ever a country was shackled to its past, it's Russia. Ideologically it is little different from the time of Ivan Grozny - although there's less bloodletting than was prevalent during his reign, the same scant regard for the freedom of the individual still exists.

Communism merely enabled a number of sociopaths to emerge to plunge the country back into a mediaeval state where industry was used to support an ideological conflict with Fascism and then Capitalism. The USSR did defeat Nazism, but at a terrible cost to all those individuals who were sacrificed on the altar of militarism - both Nazi and Communist.

Since Gorbachev's era ended, Russia's resources have been mined to the benefit of a slim hierarchy of oligarchs and to maintain a war machine.

Ukraine will become old news and less of an issue with the West. However, for whatever reasons, the US will see this Ukrainian war as a way of finally weakening a state standing in its way of its own type of expansion. I'm sure it will keep on supplying weapons and dollars which will keep Ukraine on the front foot. After all no Americans are being harmed in this war.

Sanctions will continue to hurt the Russian state and peoples. Our minor discomforts are worth bearing while adjustments are made to minimise the loss of resources from Russia. I only hope that our current issues with energy price hikes won't dilute our willingness to help Ukraine.

However, with our current obnoxious and incompetent government having to be dragged kicking and screaming to help our poor it would hardly be surprising if those poverty stricken forgot about Ukraine while dealing with the challenges Capitalism throws their way. At least every Russian 'serf' knows there will be warmth and hot food available whatever is happening in the wider world. Potatoes aren't a bad substitute for losing a few Mcdonalds outlets.

As long as the West keeps turning the screw and Ukraine keeps destroying Russian army units, I'm not sure it matters who takes over from Putin. Let's hope it's someone like Gorbachev - who eventually put people befire propaganda.

[MPH]

That could get very Nasty for Russia on the world stage if Ukraine choose to go with that..:

[leicsmac]

34 minutes ago, MPH said:

That could get very Nasty for Russia on the world stage if Ukraine choose to go with that..:

Certainly.

 

How such a violation would actually be enforced in a way that is effective, however, is quite another matter.

[MPH]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Certainly.

 

How such a violation would actually be enforced in a way that is effective, however, is quite another matter.

 

it will possibly mean political isolation I’d imagine…   I don’t see  them being able to find any willing partners for a raft of more sanctions… probably throw them out of a few of the old boys clubs maybe..