Ukraine

[SpacedX]

41 minutes ago, StanSP said:

How has this advance or retaking of ground been achieved, all of a sudden? Have they had more ammo and weapons? 

The much-publicised Ukrainian attack along the southern front was a disinformation campaign to distract Russia - and as a surprise offensive, it worked. Yes, the provision of western arms and ammunition appears to have been hugely significant. 

 

45 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What's the likelihood that Russia will fight back even harder? 

Russia’s defence ministry has confirmed the retreat, describing it as a 'regroup'. It says it has retreated from Izium and the town of Balakliia to “bolster efforts” on the Donetsk front. Russia still holds around a fifth of the country so there will be no swift end to the war. However, the Ukrainians have now demonstrated they are capable of not only beating the Russians in battle, as opposed to simply outmanoeuvring them - but outthinking them. Still, Ukraine’s offensive against heavily fortified Russian positions carries significant risks, (particularly in the south where another advance is now underway) and ominously looming behind it is the question of whether the West’s support for the Ukrainian resistance will outlast Putin’s dogged determination for victory. The biggest concern appears to be the continual supply of ammunition. 

[Countryfox]

I doubt very much if the support for Ukraine will decrease in the slightest ..  in fact it may well increase now that it can be seen how it can be a game changer ..  there is too much to lose and massive positives to use this opportunity to ‘beat’ the Russians ..  and it is also an important message to other hostile nations that are carefully watching what happens.  The Russians will be mighty pissed off by this and will indeed respond in some way ..  I doubt they will let anything happen on purpose at the nuclear site but still have other cards to play ..  they could false flag and try and get more of their army involved or they might use more terrible weapons ..  tactical nuclear or similar. 
 

Im absolutely amazed at what has just happened ..  with such fanfare about the counteroffensive in the south it seemed obvious that they would use it as a smokescreen to do something else ..  but I honestly thought the Ruskies would have seen that too and been ready to stop it ..  they really are a bunch of thickos !!   😁👍

[BKLFox]

You wonder if the “regroup” is a tactical withdrawal just to then level the area as they are struggling to hold ground let alone advance.

The surprising thing would be the fact they actually looked to be pulling their forces out and not just level the area with them in it.

[Ginger_Filbert]

Obviously along a short area but they appear to have reached the Russian border, brilliant. 

[kenny]

55 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

You wonder if the “regroup” is a tactical withdrawal just to then level the area as they are struggling to hold ground let alone advance.

The surprising thing would be the fact they actually looked to be pulling their forces out and not just level the area with them in it.

If Reddit is to be believed, they have left hundreds of tanks behind. This could be down to the amount of fuel dumps and trucks that have been destroyed.

 

Only a Russian would claim that it's an orderly regroup.

 

 

[MPH]

1 hour ago, BKLFox said:

You wonder if the “regroup” is a tactical withdrawal just to then level the area as they are struggling to hold ground let alone advance.

The surprising thing would be the fact they actually looked to be pulling their forces out and not just level the area with them in it.

 

definitely feels like they are moving their forces around to try and hold the Donbas

[BKLFox]

9 minutes ago, kenny said:

If Reddit is to be believed, they have left hundreds of tanks behind. This could be down to the amount of fuel dumps and trucks that have been destroyed.

 

Only a Russian would claim that it's an orderly regroup.

 

 

I can well believe there’s a lot of equipment left behind just due to the logistics and constant re supply needed to get everything out and the fact a lot of it was old &/or poorly maintained, all the while taking hits.

 

I’d celebrate the victory but also have a very cautious eye on why it was retaken so quickly as you can’t trust the tw4t.

 

I really hope it is the fact the Mighty Bear isn’t as Mighty as perceived during & post Cold War but for a country that spends most of its budget on defence we haven’t yet seen the modern equipment you’d assume they had or the well trained troops.
 

 

 

[MPH]

I’m so delighted with How Ukraine has been able to deal with this invasion AND with how they are fighting back!

 

 

im totally shocked with how badly Russia appears to be doing. 

[Dahnsouff]

Hmmmmm. Seemingly great news, but does Russia often accept losing face? It makes me concerned for a different response.

[kenny]

5 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

I can well believe there’s a lot of equipment left behind just due to the logistics and constant re supply needed to get everything out and the fact a lot of it was old &/or poorly maintained, all the while taking hits.

 

I’d celebrate the victory but also have a very cautious eye on why it was retaken so quickly as you can’t trust the tw4t.

 

I really hope it is the fact the Mighty Bear isn’t as Mighty as perceived during & post Cold War but for a country that spends most of its budget on defence we haven’t yet seen the modern equipment you’d assume they had or the well trained troops.
 

 

 

You also can't trust Ukrainian propaganda!

 

They have been employing NATO style tactics, use long range artillery to destroy the air defence, target supply lines using air superiority, then move in. It's looking like Russia doesn't have an answer to that sort of warfare.

 

The way it's going, the Crimea will come back to the Ukraine at some point.

 

[CosbehFox]

23 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Hmmmmm. Seemingly great news, but does Russia often accept losing face? It makes me concerned for a different response.

Agreed. However I think it’s going to make Russia’s remaining partners think about their support. 
 

Theres rumblings beginning in the Russian govt as well - which started from St Petersburg councils, the numbers appear too large for Putin to do his hit job 

[BKLFox]

15 minutes ago, kenny said:

You also can't trust Ukrainian propaganda!

 

They have been employing NATO style tactics, use long range artillery to destroy the air defence, target supply lines using air superiority, then move in. It's looking like Russia doesn't have an answer to that sort of warfare.

 

The way it's going, the Crimea will come back to the Ukraine at some point.

 

They are being advised strategy wise for sure as you’d assume their own military doctrine would mirror that of Russia and we are seeing differences.

Russia now is either going into operation protect the Donbas at all costs and then work a ceasefire centred around legally taking the area as it’s own or, & good forbid, operation if we can’t have it then nor will you.

[yorkie1999]

Could be withdrawing troops so they can nuke the place

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Could be withdrawing troops so they can nuke the place

Hardly, since their entire rationale for invading was supposedly to liberate "ethnic Russian citizens" in the east of Ukraine. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a tactical nuclear strike could be launched on the heart of Kiev though. A horrendous thought although hugely unlikely. 

[MPH]

I think the peace line will fall with Russia occupying the Donbas and Luhansk and everything else, including Crimea,  being under Ukranian control. Zelensky  will never accept Russian occupation of the Donbas publicly and privately he may leave to a more covert resistance from within. Just theorizing of course but accepting that as the status quo wouldn’t have been wise a few months ago because Russia would have been negotiating from a position of strength but not now they aren’t. They are well and truly on the back foot.

 

with the Donbas bordering Russia I feel it can be too well supplied for a full scale liberation to work but I’d love to be proven wrong.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

I think the peace line will fall with Russia occupying the Donbas and Luhansk and everything else, including Crimea,  being under Ukranian control. Zelensky  will never accept Russian occupation of the Donbas publicly and privately he may leave to a more covert resistance from within. Just theorizing of course but accepting that as the status quo wouldn’t have been wise a few months ago because Russia would have been negotiating from a position of strength but not now they aren’t. They are well and truly on the back foot.

 

with the Donbas bordering Russia I feel it can be too well supplied for a full scale liberation to work but I’d love to be proven wrong.

I don’t see Russia returning crimea - it’s occupied for about 7 years  now and it will be the last area that they retreat from. They will sue for a peace deal well before crimea looks like coming under pressure. 

[urban.spaceman]

2 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Could be withdrawing troops so they can nuke the place

There's a chance there's a fair few world leaders gathering in London next Monday....

[MPH]

16 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I don’t see Russia returning crimea - it’s occupied for about 7 years  now and it will be the last area that they retreat from. They will sue for a peace deal well before crimea looks like coming under pressure. 

 

 

dymanics are a little bit different than 7 years ago. Ukrainian army very well trained  now and have much better and highly sophisticated weaponry. If they get much closer to Crimea then that whole southern fleet is vulnerable to attack.. and they may well try and get a peace deal but Ukraine are under no obligation to agree to one whilst their land is occupied..

Edited 11 September 2022 by MPH

[Countryfox]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

I think the peace line will fall with Russia occupying the Donbas and Luhansk and everything else, including Crimea,  being under Ukranian control. Zelensky  will never accept Russian occupation of the Donbas publicly and privately he may leave to a more covert resistance from within. Just theorizing of course but accepting that as the status quo wouldn’t have been wise a few months ago because Russia would have been negotiating from a position of strength but not now they aren’t. They are well and truly on the back foot.

 

with the Donbas bordering Russia I feel it can be too well supplied for a full scale liberation to work but I’d love to be proven wrong.

 

18 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I don’t see Russia returning crimea - it’s occupied for about 7 years  now and it will be the last area that they retreat from. They will sue for a peace deal well before crimea looks like coming under pressure. 

 

1 minute ago, MPH said:

 

 

dymanics are a little bit different than 7 years ago. Ukrainian army very well trained  now and have much better and highly sophisticated weaponry. If they get much closer to Crimea then that whole southern fleet is vulnerable to attack..

That’s how I see it ..  they will push them back to the Donbas then stop ..  there is quite a lot of Russian support in that area and it will be hard to retake ..  the main problem will be to push them back along the south coast as that is strategically very important to Russia ..  if they do and I think they are capable of doing it then the long range and extremely accurate weaponry they now have will tear a hole in crimea in which case they might well get it back. The biggest advantage they have at the moment is the USA’s eyes in the sky which can gives an instant live view of everything the Ruskies are up to ..  

[Fightforever]

3 hours ago, MPH said:

I’m so delighted with How Ukraine has been able to deal with this invasion AND with how they are fighting back!

 

 

im totally shocked with how badly Russia appears to be doing. 

I am not countries with rampant corruption will always be paper tigers. The biggest lie sold by the NATO military indurstial complex is that Russia or even China for that matter ever was a threat in the first place. A lie so big the states victim of the lie actually believed this to be the case. Putin will be dead or outcast within a year.

Edited 11 September 2022 by Fightforever

[MPH]

35 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

 

That’s how I see it ..  they will push them back to the Donbas then stop ..  there is quite a lot of Russian support in that area and it will be hard to retake ..  the main problem will be to push them back along the south coast as that is strategically very important to Russia ..  if they do and I think they are capable of doing it then the long range and extremely accurate weaponry they now have will tear a hole in crimea in which case they might well get it back. The biggest advantage they have at the moment is the USA’s eyes in the sky which can gives an instant live view of everything the Ruskies are up to ..  

 

 

I know the USA has its critics and fair enough really buy I can’t fault them in their support for Ukraine. Financially they have given a lot of money and militarily they have supported them well,  also strategically NATO and the U. S have played an absolute blinder from their point of view to the detriment of Ukrainian lives and infrastructure unfortunately but from a larger picture, Meanwhile, the  concept of Russia  being a world super power has been blown wide open- they have been humiliated on a world stage.

Edited 11 September 2022 by MPH

[MPH]

12 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

I am not countries with rampant corruption will always be paper tigers. The biggest lie sold by the NATO military indurstial complex is that Russia or even China for that matter ever was a threat in the first place. A lie so big the states victim of the lie actually believed this to be the case. Putin will be dead or outcast within a year.

 

Im flabbergasted by this comment if I’m being honest. Have you not seen any of the statements Putin has been putting out over the last 15 or so years? He has been absolutely determined to reinstate a Soviet Union style bloc and is determined to swallow up Ukraine and to the point of eliminating its existence. They are not the only nation with his siight either.  The  philosophies of Alexander Dugina which drives a lot of what motivates Putin are dangerous to say the least  for large parts of Europe and if you are only calculating danger by what happens outside your window then  that’s very sad indeed..

[Fightforever]

13 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Im flabbergasted by this comment if I’m being honest. Have you not seen any of the statements Putin has been putting out over the last 15 or so years? He has been absolutely determined to reinstate a Soviet Union style bloc and is determined to swallow up Ukraine and to the point of eliminating its existence. They are not the only nation with his siight either.  The  philosophies of Alexander Dugina which drives a lot of what motivates Putin are dangerous to say the least  for large parts of Europe and if you are only calculating danger by what happens outside your window then  that’s very sad indeed..

Its not that he hasn't got the desire its that he hasn't got the ability. He doesn't even have the money to keep up the Ukraine war as it stands and thats in a scenario where his top military equipment wasn't all victim of corruption gutting the lastest hardware out of their equipment essentially making it a shittier version of cold war equipment. Not to mention top generals selling off all of Russias fuel needed to power their equipment. Eastern Europe alone could defeat Russia in a matter of months as it stands if Nukes weren't in the picture. 

 

Russian GPS systems didn't even work in the Syrian war. Their latest fighter jets were using TomTom like Western GPS systems to locate where to bomb the enemy. Once the West stopped giving them access to Western GPS they couldn't even aim their bombs anymore. Hence why they couldn't destory any criticial infrastructure and take Kyiv in the first 3 days of the war.

 

If you have ever yourself or have spoken to family who have lived in states with very high corruption you begin to realise these rogue states are paper tigers and have no ability to threaten anyone in a real way. Putin could always threaten to nuke the west again but his advisors and the oligrachy would rather shoot him than allow that.

Edited 11 September 2022 by Fightforever

[MPH]

6 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

Its not that he hasn't got the desire its that he hasn't got the ability. He doesn't even have the money to keep up the Ukraine war as it stands and thats in a scenario where his top military equipment wasn't all victim of corruption gutting the lastest hardware out of their equipment essentially making it a shittier version if cold war equipment. Not to mention top generals selling off all of Russias fuel needed to power their equipment. Eastern Europe alone could defeat Russia in a matter of months as it stands if Nukes weren't in the picture. 

 

 

he’s got plenty of money- all the oil and gas he isn’t selling to Europe is being sold to places like China and India.. what he can’t get are the parts  needed to replace and maintain all the equipment and military hardware that is being destroyed/ used.  But this kind of proves my point… without American/ NATO intervention  and their sanctions/ supply of weapons to the Ukraine, there’s every possibility that Ukraine would have been swallowed up weeks ago. The only reason why Ukraine have been able to halt the advance and subsequently pin back the Russian Army is because of the sophistication of equipment given to them. But make no mistake without it Ukraine would be on its knees..

Edited 11 September 2022 by MPH

[yorkie1999]

Russian subs have launched cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian power stations and infrastructure a short time ago, power and water is off. I think we may see a declaration of war soon from Putin.