Ukraine

[Fightforever]

30 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

he’s got plenty of money- all the oil and gas he isn’t selling to Europe is being sold to places like China and India.. what he can’t get are the parts  needed to replace and maintain all the equipment and military hardware that is being destroyed/ used.  But this kind of proves my point… without American/ NATO intervention  and their sanctions/ supply of weapons to the Ukraine, there’s every possibility that Ukraine would have been swallowed up weeks ago. The only reason why Ukraine have been able to halt the advance and subsequently pin back the Russian Army is because of the sophistication of equipment given to them. But make no mistake without it Ukraine would be on its knees..

He can't sell anywhere near the volume of oil that he did to the West since there isn't the infrastructure to transport that much oil 5000km south of Russia to India and 2500km to Beijing. It took the West 40 years to build that infrastructure capable of funding half of the Russian economy. Russia's GDP doesn't even compare to the UKs (let alone the West) ours is at 2.8 trillion while Russia’s now is at 1.4 trillion and theirs is decreasing everyday they keep up this extremely expensive war also the days they can rely on oil are numbered (Libya, Iran and Venezuela once they get out of their current troubles and start exporting again will lower the price dramatically) not mention their population which has a huge crisis coming in the next 30 years (their population grid is not looking good not to mention most of the new borns in Russia are minorities which are openly hostile to the Russian state). This is a desperate Russia trying to clutch onto the last piece of land that is somewhat feasible for them to invade.

 

 

Compare the amount of pipelines in Europe to the ones in China

 

 

Even if Russia managed to invade which imo was a big if. They still would have had an insurgency which would have bled Russia for resources and have created a Russian version of the West's Afghanistan situation. They would eventually have either had to retreat or collapse once the volatile oil prices plummeted and the Russian people got fed up of seeing their children die in Ukraine.

 

 

Edited 11 September 2022 by Fightforever

[MPH]

16 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

He can't sell anywhere near the volume of oil that he did to the West since there isn't the infrastructure to transport that much oil 5000km south of Russia to India and 2500km to Beijing. It took the West 40 years to build that infrastructure capable of funding half of the Russian economy. Russia's GDP doesn't even compare to the UKs (let alone the West) ours is at 2.8 trillion while Russia’s now is at 1.4 trillion and theirs is decreasing everyday they keep up this extremely expensive war also the days they can rely on oil are numbered (Libya, Iran and Venezuela once they get out of their current troubles and start exporting again will lower the price dramatically) not mention their population which has a huge crisis coming in the next 30 years (their population grid is not looking good not to mention most of the new borns in Russia are minorities which are openly hostile to the Russian state). This is a desperate Russia trying to clutch onto the last piece of land that is somewhat feasible for them to invade.

 

Even if Russia managed to invade which imo was a big if. They still would have had an insurgency which would have bled Russia for resources and have created a Russian version of the West's Afghanistan situation. They would eventually have either had to retreat or collapse once the volatile oil prices plummeted and the Russian people got fed up of seeing their children die in Ukraine.

 

it’s not really accurate to compare GDPs due to the different  monetary systems and cost of goods within that nation. $50m for example would go way further in Russia than it would Great Britain. Also Russia did actually prepare for this war and have established alternative trade sources  and whilst they are not making as much money as before they have ample finances to sustain a war. what they are having problems with is procurement of supplies due to the sanctions.

 

U.S. officials estimate that ocean-going tankers carry about 70% of Russia's 5.6 million barrels a day of crude oil exports

Edited 11 September 2022 by MPH

[Fightforever]

26 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

it’s not really accurate to compare GDPs due to the different  monetary systems and cost of goods within that nation. $50m for example would go way further in Russia than it would Great Britain. Also Russia did actually prepare for this war and have established alternative trade sources  and whilst they are not making as much money as before they have ample finances to sustain a war. what they are having problems with is procurement of supplies due to the sanctions.

 

U.S. officials estimate that ocean-going tankers carry about 70% of Russia's 5.6 million barrels a day of crude oil exports

A 30% drop in half of Russia's economy is huge. Not to mention shipping costs for all those barrels will be cutting into profits. Combined with a very expensive war you have proven my point.  As for the highlighted point even if we Adjust for purchasing power Russia is still extremely insignificant compared to the West. Tanks and guns cost money and Russia simply doesn't have anywhere near enough money to be a threat to anyone outside of failed states. If the West wanted to match the percentage Russia allocates to its army Russia would be powerless we would always be able to outspend the Russians and wear them down. They couldn't even handle a Ukranian insurgency atm if they did manage to take Ukraine which is a big if considering you can't even count on Russian generals not to sell the fuel needed to carry out a military campaign. They are a joke of a nation that shouldn't be taken seriously in any capacity. Once oil prices go down Putin will too and that's if the Ukraine situation hasn't already had his pants down.

Edited 11 September 2022 by Fightforever

[Tinman]

Quote

By the time you read this article it will most probably be out of date, such is the speed of the advance of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Most likely the last 72 hours of warfare in Ukraine are going to be studied by generations of future military officers and historians. In summary, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have retaken over 2,500 sq km of Russian-occupied Ukraine.

And they have done this by punching a hole through thinly-guarded Russian front lines east of Kharkiv, and severing the Russian lines of logistics, forcing the withdrawal of large contingents of Russian soldiers from multiple locations, but most importantly Izyum and Kupyansk.

Without these two cities, Russia cannot effectively supply its forces in the north-east or the east of the country, and so further collapses, withdrawals and surrenders of Russian forces are to be expected.

It is likely that the Ukrainians will keep control of what they have gained, equivalent to all of the territory that Russia has gained since April. The Russians are finding it hard to defend, let alone counterattack. They simply don't have the troops, nor the logistics, and their morale - that intangible essential in warfare - has hit a new rock bottom.

In fact, as this article was being written, reports are emerging that the Ukrainians have retaken Donetsk Airport, and are heading for the Black Sea coast—either Mariupol, or Melitopol. It is a quite stunning success.

So what does this mean?

For the war, it means that we are seeing the disintegration of Russian forces in Ukraine. They may be able to stabilise their lines temporarily, but we have crossed a point of no return. Russia's forces were previously poorly equipped, supplied and of low morale. To that list you can now add terrified of encirclement.

Some are worried that this will force Putin to use nuclear weapons, but as long as the Ukrainians stay within their borders this is unlikely—for Putin knows it will be the end of him, and potentially of Russia too.

Only a matter of time

Geographically, the Ukrainians are carving up the Russian forces into small pockets which they will deal with individually. The hardest of those pockets to defeat will be Russian forces in Crimea, but once Ukraine has isolated them by destroying the Kerch bridge that runs between Crimea and Russia, it is only a matter of time.

The Russians are not going to be able to pull this together - we are witnessing an army in rapid decline, it is just a question of the speed at which it declines.

 

[MPH]

1 hour ago, Fightforever said:

A 30% drop in half of Russia's economy is huge. Not to mention shipping costs for all those barrels will be cutting into profits. Combined with a very expensive war you have proven my point.  As for the highlighted point even if we Adjust for purchasing power Russia is still extremely insignificant compared to the West. Tanks and guns cost money and Russia simply doesn't have anywhere near enough money to be a threat to anyone outside of failed states. If the West wanted to match the percentage Russia allocates to its army Russia would be powerless we would always be able to outspend the Russians and wear them down. They couldn't even handle a Ukranian insurgency atm if they did manage to take Ukraine which is a big if considering you can't even count on Russian generals not to sell the fuel needed to carry out a military campaign. They are a joke of a nation that shouldn't be taken seriously in any capacity. Once oil prices go down Putin will too and that's if the Ukraine situation hasn't already had his pants down.

 

just to be clear, I have never said he isn’t getting a drop in income, just that he has enough income to ‘ feed’ a war. It’s the availability of parts/ sanctions that has been his problem.  And I have proven your point? I didn’t realize we were arguing

Edited 11 September 2022 by MPH

[yorkie1999]

Just now, MPH said:

 

just to be clear, I have never said he isn’t getting a drop in income, just that he has enough income to ‘ feed’ a war. It’s the availability of parts/ sanctions that has been his problem.

Apparently they are stripping down Boeing and airbus jets for supplies!! but considering they are supposed to be in bed with China, I can’t see how they are short of electronics, unless China isn’t supplying them, or can’t due to fears of western sanctions. 

[Detroit Blues]

41 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Apparently they are stripping down Boeing and airbus jets for supplies!! but considering they are supposed to be in bed with China, I can’t see how they are short of electronics, unless China isn’t supplying them, or can’t due to fears of western sanctions. 

That's exactly what's happening. 

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, Line-X said:

Hardly, since their entire rationale for invading was supposedly to liberate "ethnic Russian citizens" in the east of Ukraine. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a tactical nuclear strike could be launched on the heart of Kiev though. A horrendous thought although hugely unlikely. 

Yeah.

 

Here's hoping, because it's simply not possible to put just one toe across the nuclear threshold. One strike from a clearly identifiable nation-state would be just the beginning.

 

5 hours ago, Fightforever said:

I am not countries with rampant corruption will always be paper tigers. The biggest lie sold by the NATO military indurstial complex is that Russia or even China for that matter ever was a threat in the first place. A lie so big the states victim of the lie actually believed this to be the case. Putin will be dead or outcast within a year.

A couple of observations here:

 

- Without Western material help Ukraine would probably have fallen a few months ago, but that aside, every single major country with a nuclear arsenal should really be taken seriously. Yes, it's highly likely that there would be internal revolution rather than them being used, but given the stakes are human civilisation itself, it might be a good idea not to overlook it, no matter how small the chance.

 

- I wouldn't put China in the same bracket as Russia; they're more advanced economically and I'd say at least on a par militarily, and they only have the potential to get stronger given their base. Of course, now that they've seen how Taiwan might be able to hold their own against them it's hopefully given them pause for thought, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them conventionally either.

[Countryfox]

4 hours ago, Fightforever said:

They are a joke of a nation that shouldn't be taken seriously in any capacity. Once oil prices go down Putin will too  ..

You’ve made some interesting points but I think you are very very wrong with this one ..   dangerously wrong in fact. As I said earlier Putin still has cards to play ..  

[filthyfox]

Ukraine is a proxy war between East and West.

The West is funding Ukrainian defence, and at the same time, weakening Russia.

 

I am proud of our Country's response to this. Yes, prices are up, but Russia is being shown for the paper tiger it is, and not the black bear it wants to be 

[SpacedX]

10 hours ago, Fightforever said:

I am not countries with rampant corruption will always be paper tigers. The biggest lie sold by the NATO military indurstial complex is that Russia or even China for that matter ever was a threat in the first place. A lie so big the states victim of the lie actually believed this to be the case.

What?

 

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine challenges the post-Cold War paradigm whereby U.S imperialism is the world’s sole superpower and source of global tensions. And anything opposing U.S. policies, including by Russia in Ukraine, is seen as anti-imperialist.

 

U.S. imperialism has a long, inglorious history of invading and occupying other countries, committing state-sponsored terrorism, engineering coups, installing puppet governments, possessing colonies, and controlling and exploiting other countries by its domination of the global financial system in the name of global security. But that view doesn’t reconcile with the rapidly changing world in which U.S. domination is steadily yielding to a multipolar world, and the emergence of other players on the global stage. The rise of China as the world’s largest economy and its growing trade and diplomatic relations is profoundly influencing global developments. The newly emerging economies like Russia, Brazil, and India, the election of left governments in Latin America and elsewhere, and other global alliances also herald a new era of globalisation. The influence of U.S. imperialism is waning whilst nations and people are not passive actors but also have agency. Domestic democratic movements impact national developments and national sovereignty within the broader geopolitical struggle. At the same time, new threats to peace, security, and democracy have emerged and increasing polarisation threatens the planet plagued by mass disinformation, global fascism, white nationalism, anti-democratic movements, regional rivalries, and religious extremism. This is a very dangerous time for humanity and detracts from the greatest immediate threats which are climate change and antibiotic/antimicrobial resistance. 

 

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. Both Russia and China are the global leaders in ICBM development and by the time that other nations catch up it is likely that both will have refined the technology to defend against them. 

 

The greatest threat in Ukraine right now is escalation and the all out declaration of war from Russia which may usher in large scale use of unconventional weaponry. 

 

10 hours ago, Fightforever said:

 Putin will be dead or outcast within a year.

You have no idea about the current state of President Putin's health. None of us do. Regarding 'outcast', there is no longer any equivalent of the politburo or State mechanism to remove him unlike the former CCCP. Putin's power is absolute and its strength lies in the fact that he has few if any immediate opponents and is closely surrounded by a like-minded cabal that extends well beyond his immediate circle, the Siloviki. Even if this transpired to be the case, there are equally dangerous individuals that would assume power in his place. 

 

 

[leicsmac]

22 minutes ago, Line-X said:

What?

 

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine challenges the post-Cold War paradigm whereby U.S imperialism is the world’s sole superpower and source of global tensions. And anything opposing U.S. policies, including by Russia in Ukraine, is seen as anti-imperialist.

 

U.S. imperialism has a long, inglorious history of invading and occupying other countries, committing state-sponsored terrorism, engineering coups, installing puppet governments, possessing colonies, and controlling and exploiting other countries by its domination of the global financial system in the name of global security. But that view doesn’t reconcile with the rapidly changing world in which U.S. domination is steadily yielding to a multipolar world, and the emergence of other players on the global stage. The rise of China as the world’s largest economy and its growing trade and diplomatic relations is profoundly influencing global developments. The newly emerging economies like Russia, Brazil, and India, the election of left governments in Latin America and elsewhere, and other global alliances also herald a new era of globalisation. The influence of U.S. imperialism is waning whilst nations and people are not passive actors but also have agency. Domestic democratic movements impact national developments and national sovereignty within the broader geopolitical struggle. At the same time, new threats to peace, security, and democracy have emerged and increasing polarisation threatens the planet plagued by mass disinformation, global fascism, white nationalism, anti-democratic movements, regional rivalries, and religious extremism. This is a very dangerous time for humanity and detracts from the greatest immediate threats which are climate change and antibiotic/antimicrobial resistance. 

 

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. Both Russia and China are the global leaders in ICBM development and by the time that other nations catch up it is likely that both will have refined the technology to defend against them. 

 

The greatest threat in Ukraine right now is escalation and the all out declaration of war from Russia which may usher in large scale use of unconventional weaponry. 

 

You have no idea about the current state of President Putin's health. None of us do. Regarding 'outcast', there is no longer any equivalent of the politburo or State mechanism to remove him unlike the former CCCP. Putin's power is absolute and its strength lies in the fact that he has few if any immediate opponents and is closely surrounded by a like-minded cabal that extends well beyond his immediate circle, the Siloviki. Even if this transpired to be the case, there are equally dangerous individuals that would assume power in his place. 

 

 

This is a superb post, but I just wanted to chime in on the bolded.

 

As a rule so far, ICBM MIRV warhead systems have evolved faster than the ABM tech used to combat them. And this continuing to happen is a good thing, because any one nation that suddenly found itself able to defend itself against a nuclear strike from elsewhere would be hugely destabilising - it would be as good as one country alone having nuclear weapons and thus the power that would go with that ability.

 

I don't think that Russia and/or China, though they no doubt push their missile tech, will come up with a fully functional ABM system that would be able to invalidate MAD for both of the reasons above.

[Daggers]

2 hours ago, Line-X said:

U.S. imperialism has a long, inglorious history of invading and occupying other countries, committing state-sponsored terrorism...

Yes, but it's our state-sponsored terrorism.

[Countryfox]

Blimey ..  the reclaimed bit is getting more every day ! .. 

 

 

[Countryfox]

Slava Ukraini !!!

[MPH]

Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russians by eight to one in last week's counter-attack in the Kharkiv region, Russia's top occupation official there says.  
 

 

 

 

thats quite an admission and A break from previous protocol in being so open. It’s possibly said to save face and explain why they couldn’t hold the line but it kind of slaps Putin in the face as just a few days ago he was  saying that they hadn’t lost anything!

 

 

there’s rumors circulating that many troops were sent to the South to defend against the counter offensive there and that’s lead the Russians to be so thinly spread in the North/ east. Smart move by the Ukrainians attacking 2 different  areas at the same time.

[Zear0]

Hope the progess vitalises Ukraine's allies to provide more materiel to support them. Now Ukraine have demonstrated a capability to successfully counter, her allies might now look to strike whilst the iron is hot and provide more equipment. The prospect of the winter stalemate, and Putin's energy war on Europe, might have given some countries cold feet for fear of this conflict prolonging. This offensive must have really lifted the mood over there. 

 

Also, I guess as more and more of Ukraine's forces become accustomed to the NATO standard equipment, they'll start to see increasing returns for supplied hardware as they're not having train people in advance as often. 

Edited 12 September 2022 by Zear0

[SpacedX]

11 minutes ago, MPH said:

Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russians by eight to one in last week's counter-attack in the Kharkiv region, Russia's top occupation official there says.  
 

 

 

 

thats quite an admission and A break from previous protocol in being so open. It’s possibly said to save face and explain why they couldn’t hold the line but it kind of slaps Putin in the face as just a few days ago he was  saying that they hadn’t lost anything!

 

 

there’s rumors circulating that many troops were sent to the South to defend against the counter offensive there and that’s lead the Russians to be so thinly spread in the North/ east. Smart move by the Ukrainians attacking 2 different  areas at the same time.

They were outflanked - and the diversion of resources to the south was as I mentioned in a previous post in response to a cleverly deployed disinformation campaign staged by the Ukrainian government. How delightfully ironic. 

 

Even Kremlin sponsored state TV is questioning who is responsible for this collapse. Of course, this is not aimed at Putin, this is a dictatorship and his authority is absolute, but the debate seems to be whether they should pull out and negotiate an agreement or consolidate and mobilise stronger reinforcements. The overwhelming sentiment seems to be in favour of escalation, which is ominous. 

[He aint bald]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

 

Even Kremlin sponsored state TV is questioning who is responsible for this collapse. Of course, this is not aimed at Putin, this is a dictatorship and his authority is absolute, but the debate seems to be whether they should pull out and negotiate an agreement or consolidate and mobilise stronger reinforcements. The overwhelming sentiment seems to be in favour of escalation, which is ominous. 

You seem well up on this subject...... but to me negotiation right now would be the most ominous, That would just allow Russia to prepare for later escalation.

I suspect thoseTV personalities are relaying planned policy directly from Putin to influence the masses.

I doubt they will execute the generals, as one called for, but it passes the blame and allows Putin to show a bit of public mercy to said generals...... or shoot them

[SpacedX]

13 minutes ago, He aint bald said:

You seem well up on this subject...... but to me negotiation right now would be the most ominous, That would just allow Russia to prepare for later escalation.

I suspect thoseTV personalities are relaying planned policy directly from Putin to influence the masses.

I doubt they will execute the generals, as one called for, but it passes the blame and allows Putin to show a bit of public mercy to said generals...... or shoot them

Not really, I just take a strong interest and try to concentrate upon what we know. We can speculate based upon that but the problem lies in the fact that there is so much that we really don't know. In 1939, Churchill defined Russia as "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma," Nothing much has changed since. 

 

It's certainly conceivable that 'public debate' is steered through Kremlin sponsored media - and demanding to know who is responsible is a way to absolve Putin of blame and make his military leaders accountable. But that's the issue, the invariably aren't. The chain of military command is ever upwards with said Generals appearing to be so terrified of tactically making the wrong call or commitment that like a rabbit in headlights, they are paralysed by indecision. Ukraine has sensed this fear and preyed upon it. Unless Russia formally declares war, mobilises the full might of its military and uses its arsenal of unconventional weapons, (which is would make a mockery of their claim to be liberating ethnic Russians in the east), the only way out of this is a treaty. Further drafting and conscription risks growing dissent and unpopularity from within and that is dangerous even to a dictatorship and in spite of the unity within the corridors of the Kremlin. We are lead to believe, the people overwhelmingly ostensibly favour mobilisation over retreat but again, this is being channeled by state sponsored media. It may well however signal the Kremlin's intent. 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, Line-X said:

They were outflanked - and the diversion of resources to the south was as I mentioned in a previous post in response to a cleverly deployed disinformation campaign staged by the Ukrainian government. How delightfully ironic. 

 

Even Kremlin sponsored state TV is questioning who is responsible for this collapse. Of course, this is not aimed at Putin, this is a dictatorship and his authority is absolute, but the debate seems to be whether they should pull out and negotiate an agreement or consolidate and mobilise stronger reinforcements. The overwhelming sentiment seems to be in favour of escalation, which is ominous. 

their pride has been hurt and they are not use to the damage to their reputation so yes I too fear an escalation but they have to understand the further damage that could course to their country long term..

[Lionator]

12 hours ago, Line-X said:

What?

 

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine challenges the post-Cold War paradigm whereby U.S imperialism is the world’s sole superpower and source of global tensions. And anything opposing U.S. policies, including by Russia in Ukraine, is seen as anti-imperialist.

 

U.S. imperialism has a long, inglorious history of invading and occupying other countries, committing state-sponsored terrorism, engineering coups, installing puppet governments, possessing colonies, and controlling and exploiting other countries by its domination of the global financial system in the name of global security. But that view doesn’t reconcile with the rapidly changing world in which U.S. domination is steadily yielding to a multipolar world, and the emergence of other players on the global stage. The rise of China as the world’s largest economy and its growing trade and diplomatic relations is profoundly influencing global developments. The newly emerging economies like Russia, Brazil, and India, the election of left governments in Latin America and elsewhere, and other global alliances also herald a new era of globalisation. The influence of U.S. imperialism is waning whilst nations and people are not passive actors but also have agency. Domestic democratic movements impact national developments and national sovereignty within the broader geopolitical struggle. At the same time, new threats to peace, security, and democracy have emerged and increasing polarisation threatens the planet plagued by mass disinformation, global fascism, white nationalism, anti-democratic movements, regional rivalries, and religious extremism. This is a very dangerous time for humanity and detracts from the greatest immediate threats which are climate change and antibiotic/antimicrobial resistance. 

 

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. Both Russia and China are the global leaders in ICBM development and by the time that other nations catch up it is likely that both will have refined the technology to defend against them. 

 

The greatest threat in Ukraine right now is escalation and the all out declaration of war from Russia which may usher in large scale use of unconventional weaponry. 

 

You have no idea about the current state of President Putin's health. None of us do. Regarding 'outcast', there is no longer any equivalent of the politburo or State mechanism to remove him unlike the former CCCP. Putin's power is absolute and its strength lies in the fact that he has few if any immediate opponents and is closely surrounded by a like-minded cabal that extends well beyond his immediate circle, the Siloviki. Even if this transpired to be the case, there are equally dangerous individuals that would assume power in his place. 

 

 

I’d go further than your last paragraph. What a lot of people don’t realise is that Putin is actually being very conservative compared to a lot of the absolute nutters who are in his circle. 
 

If you think blackmail/threats under Putin is at all frightening, him being disposed of power and there being an internal power struggle is 100x more terrifying. 

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I’d go further than your last paragraph. What a lot of people don’t realise is that Putin is actually being very conservative compared to a lot of the absolute nutters who are in his circle. 
 

If you think blackmail/threats under Putin is at all frightening, him being disposed of power and there being an internal power struggle is 100x more terrifying. 

On the subject of speculation about his death or possible premature removal...

 

12 hours ago, Line-X said:

Putin's power is absolute and its strength lies in the fact that he has few if any immediate opponents and is closely surrounded by a like-minded cabal that extends well beyond his immediate circle, the Siloviki. Even if this transpired to be the case, there are equally dangerous individuals that would assume power in his place. 

 

[Lionator]

34 minutes ago, Line-X said:

On the subject of speculation about his death or possible premature removal...

 

 

Either, or. 

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Either, or. 

We all die eventually. Premature removal - not so much. If you read the thread someone was suggesting that 'either or' was imminent in the next year. I strongly doubt that. 

Edited 12 September 2022 by Line-X