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Sampson

Ukraine

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1 hour ago, Line-X said:

We all die eventually. Premature removal - not so much. If you read the thread someone was suggesting that 'either or' was imminent in the next year. I strongly doubt that. 

Absolutely agree with you there, despite what people say I have no doubt that he’s in good health and his hold on power isn’t in any danger. My point was rather ‘be careful what you wish for’ because the person following Putin is going to be worse imo. He surrounded himself with idiots who convinced him to invade Ukraine. He knows he messed up but taking a step back would infer weakness. I feel he’s waiting for something to arise to work towards a peace deal. Good for Russia would be keeping Crimea at this point, although I don’t think Ukraine have much chance of taking that back. 

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57 minutes ago, marbles said:

Again be careful what you wish for. These people don’t think he went far enough. They think he’s brought shame on the country but not going hard enough on Ukraine. They’re not anti war people. 

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1 hour ago, marbles said:

Yes, Yuferyev and Palyuga - Smolninskoye councillors (St Petersberg). And not for the first time. They now have been summoned to answer to the police for discrediting the military. Very brave men.  

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1 hour ago, Line-X said:

......... Unless Russia formally declares war, mobilises the full might of its military and uses its arsenal of unconventional weapons, (which is would make a mockery of their claim to be liberating ethnic Russians in the east), the only way out of this is a treaty. Further drafting and conscription risks growing dissent and unpopularity from within and that is dangerous even to a dictatorship.............

Even percieved defeat, including any treaty right now, might empower Kremlin usurpers or regional autonomy movements. The fact that official municiple leaders are signing peticions might be an indication of imminent chamge?

 

I think many ordinary Russians have been forced to take note in these days, whether it be through nationalistic loss of ego or potential conscription to fight.

 

The one thing I suspect most though, those who believed claims that they were fighting Nazis will just as quickly believe claims that there is a blood thirsty NATO horde on their border........ so Putin aint done yet.

 

Anyhow, we shall see

 

 

 

,

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9 hours ago, He aint bald said:

Even percieved defeat, including any treaty right now, might empower Kremlin usurpers or regional autonomy movements. The fact that official municiple leaders are signing peticions might be an indication of imminent chamge?

They are the same Smolninskoye councillors that have dissented before. 

 

7 hours ago, casablancas said:

Azerbaijan and Armenia are back at it. It sounds extremely hostile and very horrible. Yet no media attention, mind you it has been a a busy few days eh? Anyway. What a Fcuking world. 

Not surprised to hear this. This goes back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The disputed territory near Nagorno-Karabkah is internationally recognised as  Azerbaijan’s territory despite to large areas being captured by Armenia during the conflict. It has a large Armenian population yet Azerbaijan regained those territories not long ago. I think there was a flimsy Russian-brokered truce but I'm reading that recent skirmishes have ignited hostilities. I was under the impression that Russia, an Armenian security ally, maintained a peacekeeping force in the region. Perhaps many of them have been redeployed? 

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20 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

How the tables have turned. 
 

 

 

368DCAA5-780B-4AF0-AF3C-F8BFEC567DF5.jpeg

This is Ukrainian tabloid journalism. Three days ago in an interview with France 24, Ola Stefanishyna commented - "Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days but that her country now had more leverage and would only talk once it had reached its military goals". She claimed that the Russians were "offering talks now in order to stop the Ukrainian advance." There is no independently verifiable evidence of this. She also conceded that her country was "preparing for the worst-case scenario" in terms of Russian retaliation.

 

Yesterday Dimitri Peskov explicitly stated, "We do not see any negotiating prospects at the moment and still state the absence of any prerequisites for such negotiations".

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Line-X said:

This is Ukrainian tabloid journalism. Three days ago in an interview with France 24, Ola Stefanishyna commented - "Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days but that her country now had more leverage and would only talk once it had reached its military goals". She claimed that the Russians were "offering talks now in order to stop the Ukrainian advance." There is no independently verifiable evidence of this. She also conceded that her country was "preparing for the worst-case scenario" in terms of Russian retaliation.

 

Yesterday Dimitri Peskov explicitly stated, "We do not see any negotiating prospects at the moment and still state the absence of any prerequisites for such negotiations".

 

 

 

Also, the (European) west grasping at any potential straw that could end the conflict. :dunno:

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23 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Possible declaration of war and full mobilzation tonight, which means conscription for anyone, Moscovites ain't gonna like that.

And martial law, some are reporting. It’ll be scary for the average Russian. 

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16 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Possible declaration of war and full mobilzation tonight, which means conscription for anyone, Moscovites ain't gonna like that.


I don’t think this will catch Ukraine by surprise. I think they will be prepared and I think the barrage of artillery they have prepared with shock the Russians.

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5 minutes ago, fox_favourite said:

And Marshall law, some are reporting. It’ll be scary for the average Russian. 

 

They've put Ben Marshall in charge? That is scary. I remember him being a dodgy right-winger, but didn't think he'd up to stuff like this. :S

 

(pssst...."martial law" ;))

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3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

They've put Ben Marshall in charge? That is scary. I remember him being a dodgy right-winger, but didn't think he'd up to stuff like this. :S

 

(pssst...."martial law" ;))

My phone auto corrected that! Bloody Siri.

 

I was thinking more Ian Marshall law. 

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16 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Possible declaration of war and full mobilzation tonight, which means conscription for anyone, Moscovites ain't gonna like that.

 

2 minutes ago, fox_favourite said:

And Marshall law, some are reporting. It’ll be scary for the average Russian. 

In an attempt to force ‘victory’, Putin is ready to stage these sham referendums immediately in order to - in his mind - legitimise the use of unconventional weapons to defend Russian territory. It's the only way that they can win, knowing that full mobilisation risks political backlash, insurgency and the protracted guerrilla warfare from within, in addition to further calamitous losses on the battlefield dealt by the Ukrainian military. If they can't win this war on the ground, then there are other means that they can resort to once vindicated by the rigged results of the referendums. The Russian state Duma has introduced new amendments to the legal code that directly refer to “mobilisation” and “martial law” and introduce criminal liability for desertion or wilful surrender during that period. This doesn't necessarily indicate that the Kremlin is on an all out war footing but is more likely to be a way to instill order into an ailing invasion force. I suspect that Putin knows that conscription would be a political disaster. 

 

The Kremlin has throughout this conflict resisted the full mobilisation of its military, likely due to the reasons above. It may be that escalation involves a different tactic and I fully expect to see the reintroduction of nuclear blackmail in the coming weeks to create an impasse, freeze hostilities and thereby cement/establish and retain its territorial acquisitions in Ukraine.

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2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Currently a delay, which could mean it's all kicking off behind the scenes as in, " you're gonna do what!"

Unfortunately, I think there are people behind the scenes that want a full scale war. Wonder if potential ‘required conscription’ will cause riots in Russia and could do more harm to them. 
 

Or Putin is trolling the world, taking the focus off the UN summit in US. 

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1 minute ago, fox_favourite said:

Unfortunately, I think there are people behind the scenes that want a full scale war. Wonder if potential ‘required conscription’ will cause riots in Russia and could do more harm to them. 
 

Or Putin is trolling the world, taking the focus off the UN summit in US. 

They must surely understand what this would mean for the world and Russia itself. 

 

It may well be a distraction ploy by Putin to draw attention back to Russia.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

 

Putin again reveals he's the world's biggest hypocrite. Partial mobilisation mostly blamed on protecting Russia's "territory" and how it's all the west's fault. 

 

Also strongly claims NATO is the one suggesting to use nukes when it's Putin that pulls that card whenever threatened. Don't listen to a word they say and keep pushing.

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