Ukraine

[fox_up_north]

7 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I’m thinking about wind and the knock on effects to Eastern Europe or indeed the ‘motherland’ 

Could be plenty. Chernobyl blew as far as Germany, I believe.

 

So, yes, if a nuclear strike happened in Kharkiv, with eastern winds, it is entirely possible and probable that it would blow back east. 

[st albans fox]

Just now, fox_up_north said:

Could be plenty. Chernobyl blew as far as Germany, I believe.

 

So, yes, if a nuclear strike happened in Kharkiv, with eastern winds, it is entirely possible and probable that it would blow back east. 

V confused with your east and west but yes, I understand what you mean 

 

for this reason, I doubt they would use a weapon close to the current theatre of war where they have troops and is also close to Russia  - would surely be western or sw ukraine and prevailing winds are pretty unpredictable- I assume they would wait for a time where the flow was from the east to carry any fall out west into Europe 

 

 

[leicsmac]

I'm going to be honest and say that I think there's not really such a thing as a "tactical" nuclear weapon anyway, when the use of one will almost inevitability end in the use of strategic ones on cities.

 

If there is such a thing as a limited nuclear exchange between two major powers, I'd like to see a good example.

[fox_up_north]

30 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

V confused with your east and west but yes, I understand what you mean 

 

Posting on lunch break was never a great combo for my brain! 

[SpacedX]

In addition to the approval and approbation from the deranged Russian Orthodox leader Patriarch Kirill, who has told him that he is on a mandate from God, Vladimir Putin's favourite author appears to be the 20th Century ultra-nationalist Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin who ironically once described fascism as a "healthy, necessary and inevitable phenomenon". Ilyin also held that the Russian people should "unconditionally love and trust their leader" Hardly a surprise then when he was cited in a speech last week by Putin to celebrate the annexation of the four Ukrainian provinces in which he stated "Russia's spirit is my spirit, its fate is my fate, its suffering my suffering its flourishing my joy". He regards himself as the personification of his motherland - yet there seems to be little flourishing in the Kremlin right now nor spirit amongst the Russian military or people and the spectre of nuclear war has been raised to the highest level since the height of the Cold War. Last week, Moscow lashed out at the "outright Satanism" of western countries together with their overthrow of "faith and traditional values". Putin also made ominous reference to the precedent set by America through the dropping of atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945. 

 

Putin has been described in many biographies and indeed by himself as a hoodlum on the streets of St. Petersburg who took up martial arts to assert his "position in the pack" (you would have thought he would have chosen something more useful and intimidating that Judo). Scarily he has often said that he realised that in every situation, whether he was right or wrong, that he needed the strength to stick to his convictions, remain strong and answer back. This uncompromising approach has served him well in his rise to power and the subsequent suppression of opposition, subjugation of the courts, the state Duma, the media and the state television transforming them into his loyal puppets, but the longer that this war endures, the more it undermines his carefully controlled hegemony. This may not be a good thing. Images of Russian troops routed and retreating in disarray have angered hardliners branding Putin as weak, whilst conscription has prompted angry civil protest, over 700,000 to flee across the border and violent uprisings in the volatile republic of Dagestan in the Northern Caucasus region. 

 

I actually don't think anyone knows what Putin is going to do - for two reasons. Firstly, he does not inform anyone about his plans - his aides and the military await his command. Secondly, I genuinely don't think he knows himself. There very likely aren't any. Highly placed sources continually allude to confusion , conflicting messages and exasperation amongst the ruling elite. There may be a growing realisation that he won't be governing Russia in the foreseeable future and that his regime is entering its final stretch. This makes him increasingly paranoid, desperate and as a consequence, dangerous. There is a possibility, that he would sooner sacrifice everything than his power and as he has already referred to, the precedent was set seventy eight years ago by America. The ongoing speculation about his health has added further unpredictability. Intelligence indicates that Putin has been visited at least 35 times by a leading oncologist.

 

Putin communicates well to his people when he is winning, during prosperity, appealing to populism and engendering the national sentiment through selling the illusion that they are part of a great power. Having nothing to offer or making demands of them and the disaffection grows whilst the propaganda can only go so far. As the nation buckles under the weight of continued sanctions the massive wealth and privilege enjoyed by Putin and his ruling elite will continue to stir up tensions and breed resentment. Even prior to the invasion of Ukraine, there was widespread fury when banished opposition leader Alexie Navalny exposed Putin as the secret owner of the vast palatial residence on the Black Sea. Those that swallowed the propaganda in response may not find it so palatable now. His audacity in claiming that those that earn the equivalent of £380 a month should consider themselves part of the Russian middle class was also widely derided and lampooned. Particularly when he was recently shamelessly publicly sporting a Loro Piana jacket worth ten grand, twice the average annual earnings of provincial Russians. 

 

No one knows whether Putin would deploy nuclear weapons in an attempt to turn the tide of the war and under the same justification of ending it as 1945, but it is beyond doubt that he has dug himself into a hole that is difficult to claw his way out of and may well be caving in around him. I believe that he will do whatever is necessary to save himself because if he does lose his grip on power, the best outlook for him is incarceration. 

 

His trusted Siloviki are as treacherous and ruthless as he is and although equally as dangerous - if not more so - are also intent upon their own self-preservation. 

[Lionator]

I’ll put my balls on the line and say nuclear use or nuclear war won’t happen.

 

Also this is a decent read. 

 

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

[SpacedX]

7 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I’ll put my balls on the line and say nuclear use or nuclear war won’t happen.

 

Trust me, there will be more at stake than your testicles if you're wrong and it does. 

[ClaphamFox]

On 06/10/2022 at 09:57, Dahnsouff said:

Putin humiliated by Orbn as he unveils energy plan to slash Russian gas imports to 'zero' | Science | News | Express.co.uk

 

Not sure how true this, but it is not a good look for Putin if true.

Russia has been threatening to switch off the gas in an attempt to intimidate Europe and sow division among Ukraine's allies. The trouble is, that's a gun that can only be fired once. Now the rest of Europe is actively planning for a future energy mix that includes zero Russian gas. This will keep energy prices elevated for a few years as countries seek short-term solutions, but in the longer term it will speed up the delivery of renewable energy. Russia will lose both a major source of income and political leverage, leaving it poorer and more isolated.

[whoareyaaa]

36 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I’ll put my balls on the line and say nuclear use or nuclear war won’t happen.

 

Also this is a decent read. 

 

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

According to Biden its going to be Armageddon 

[Dahnsouff]

15 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Russia has been threatening to switch off the gas in an attempt to intimidate Europe and sow division among Ukraine's allies. The trouble is, that's a gun that can only be fired once. Now the rest of Europe is actively planning for a future energy mix that includes zero Russian gas. This will keep energy prices elevated for a few years as countries seek short-term solutions, but in the longer term it will speed up the delivery of renewable energy. Russia will lose both a major source of income and political leverage, leaving it poorer and more isolated.

This is the hope

[fox_favourite]

1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said:

According to Biden its going to be Armageddon 

Not quite what he said. He said along the lines of - it brings the world closer to Armageddon, than at any time during the Cold War. Not the same thing. 

[Ginger_Filbert]

One direction of the Crimea bridge this morning has found itself with a bit hole in it and the other direction is on fire. 
 

Interesting that I read the other day that Ukraine may not attack that bridge so that the Russians always have an escape route, now that they have there is potentially 10’s of thousands of troops that could find themselves cornered and end up needing a Russian Dunkirk moment. 
 

Tried uploading more pictures but they are too big and unsure how to make them smaller, pictures are readily available online and social media. 

 

Edited 8 October 2022 by Ginger_Filbert

[Zear0]

Yes, a lorry fire... 

 

 

[st albans fox]

Satellite data will be available today and will reveal what has happened on the bridges 

 

current thinking is sabotage from below the structure rather than any kind of missile strike 

 

not sure ukraine have the capability to strike that far from their controlled areas 

 

clearly this won’t help vlad’s mindset …..

[skinnydipper]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 8 October 2022 by skinnydipper

[Ginger_Filbert]

It’ll be interesting how Russia respond because they will definitely view this as attacking Russian territory. 

[SkidsFox]

Another screen for the "are you human or a robot?" Web test?

 

[Ginger_Filbert]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Satellite data will be available today and will reveal what has happened on the bridges 

 

current thinking is sabotage from below the structure rather than any kind of missile strike 

 

not sure ukraine have the capability to strike that far from their controlled areas 

 

clearly this won’t help vlad’s mindset …..

The Ukraine special service SBU appear to be claiming the attack. 

[Countryfox]

3 hours ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

One direction of the Crimea bridge this morning has found itself with a bit hole in it and the other direction is on fire. 
 

Interesting that I read the other day that Ukraine may not attack that bridge so that the Russians always have an escape route, now that they have there is potentially 10’s of thousands of troops that could find themselves cornered and end up needing a Russian Dunkirk moment. 
 

Tried uploading more pictures but they are too big and unsure how to make them smaller, pictures are readily available online and social media. 

 

I think they’ve moved past the point of keeping an escape route open and are targeting the bridge to stop supplies coming through Crimea to south Ukraine ..  it indicates they are really expecting to push the Russians back much further in the south.  

[yorkie1999]

Bet the driver in the lorry let out a bit of poo.

Edited 8 October 2022 by yorkie1999

[skinnydipper]

A predictably irrational response from the Kremlin 

 

Attack on Crimean bridge 'terrorist action', says Russia

Russian authorities have condemned the attack on the bridge as 'terrorist action' at the hands of Ukraine. 

From the Telegram of Russia's foreign ministry, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "The Kyiv regime's reaction to the destruction of civilian infrastructure demonstrates its terrorist nature."

[fox_up_north]

I think, at this point, Ukraine is so fuched off that they just want to humiliate Russia and push them back. 

 

Whether that is the best long-term strategy, who knows but they've also spent the last 30 years living next door to them, while the previous 70 odd as part of their "empire", so they'll know more than me. 

 

[yorkie1999]

Makes you wonder if the Ukrainians had been devoloping unmaned kamakazi boats specifically for destroyng the Kerch bridge

 

https://www.coffeeordie.com/ukraine-kamikaze-drone-boats

[Sampson]

21 hours ago, fox_up_north said:

Could be plenty. Chernobyl blew as far as Germany, I believe.

 

So, yes, if a nuclear strike happened in Kharkiv, with eastern winds, it is entirely possible and probable that it would blow back east. 

Went as far as Sweden and Finland even. Further than Germany.

 

There’s still parts of Sweden where it’s illegal to grow fruits and vegetables as it’s considered unsafe due to the very high levels of radiation in the soil from Chernobyl.

[turlo]

58 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Makes you wonder if the Ukrainians had been devoloping unmaned kamakazi boats specifically for destroyng the Kerch bridge

 

https://www.coffeeordie.com/ukraine-kamikaze-drone-boats

see the video on the top left and there's a small wake under the bridge just before the explosion - first few seconds of the video