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Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot

Cost of living crisis.

By Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot, in General Chat

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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Tommy G said:

Will be a very interesting time for employers when it comes to wage rises this year. We gave out a generous at the time 4%, that seems measly now. You flick on the news and see Nurses and Teachers striking over double digit wage increases will spread to the private sector ''I want some of that too''. I'm sure margins are tight at businesses all over the UK, sector dependent obviously, but if you are in a sector where its difficult to pass on cost increases to customers whether it be raw materials or wage inflation, your margins just become squeezed. 

 

I suspect the CT rises wont bring in much more income for the treasury, because businesses will just be less profitable with inflation and wage inflation baked into next years profits and beyond. Tough times. 

I seem to recall a fair few on here talking about being offered 7%+ pay deals this year.  Most public sector have come out with around 5%, but that's on the back of more than 10 years of between 0 and 2% raises.

 

The thing is that the current inflation situation is temporary and the rate will return.  Offering 10%+ pay rises raises the wage bill forever.  If you get 10% this year and 2% next year, that 2% will be more expensive than if you got 5% this year.

 

I spoke to a fireman last week.  He was expecting to be offered 8-9% and turning it down and striking.  Crazy.

 

A more sensible approach, surely would be to give a 3 or 4% rise and a one off bonus of say 5%, paid over the year or in a lump.  That way workers get the money now, but the long term costs are kept down?

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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Tommy G said:

Simple - there is no uplift of tax brackets - so the more you earn the more likely you will be pushed into higher rate tax brackets. It’s for the next 6 years until I suspect that changes when all parties prepare for a GE

It's a kinda clever approach.  Pain is coming but not immediately and it will be gradual.  Fast forward three years and they'll likely be able to say that they'll scrap that plan, push the higher band to 60k and raise personal allowance to 15k (depending on how many votes are required).  Or, if needed, they can stick to the plan (IF it's working) and claim fiscal responsibility.

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grobyfox1990

grobyfox1990

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, nnfox said:

I seem to recall a fair few on here talking about being offered 7%+ pay deals this year.  Most public sector have come out with around 5%, but that's on the back of more than 10 years of between 0 and 2% raises.

 

The thing is that the current inflation situation is temporary and the rate will return.  Offering 10%+ pay rises raises the wage bill forever.  If you get 10% this year and 2% next year, that 2% will be more expensive than if you got 5% this year.

 

I spoke to a fireman last week.  He was expecting to be offered 8-9% and turning it down and striking.  Crazy.

 

A more sensible approach, surely would be to give a 3 or 4% rise and a one off bonus of say 5%, paid over the year or in a lump.  That way workers get the money now, but the long term costs are kept down?

Current inflation is temporary but we likely won’t see negative numbers for a long long time. So the cost base is there forever, therefore the wage base has to follow. Anything less than an 11.1% pay rise now will see wages behind costs for a long time, hence the IFS have said we are in the midst of a lost two decades of growth. 

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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BKLFox said:

On that what is it they are basing the tax on now, apparently from 2025 for EV this will be £10 for the 1st year then move to standard rate currently £165 but for all us on diesel / petrol we are hit on emissions with a bracket from £0->£2k+
Now i get whilst EV cars produce little to no greenhouse emmission there is further down the energy chain but how can they jump from zip to a standard rate whilst not directly contributing to emmissions? 
I wonder if its time to re-think the whole road tax scheme, is it money for climate changes or road infrastructure up keep & if the latter then surely it should be 1 rate for all?
I have a diesel & will pay less than the EV standard rate, obviously if that remains as is.

The whole road tax thing does need to be more transparent, for sure.

 

The thing is though, the whole tax system is partly there to incentivise certain behaviour within society.  It's pretty clear that it has been used as an incentive to get people to move to cleaner cars, but with diesels and petrol cars set to be completely binned, it will leave a large hole in government income.  The early adopters had some benefit from it, but as it becomes mainstream, I think it was always likely to come to an end at some point.

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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Current inflation is temporary but we likely won’t see negative numbers for a long long time. So the cost base is there forever, therefore the wage base has to follow. Anything less than an 11.1% pay rise now will see wages behind costs for a long time, hence the IFS have said we are in the midst of a lost two decades of growth. 

It's such a difficult, complicated circumstance.  It is unlikely that we'll see negative numbers, but at the same time big pay rises will continue to fuel inflation as companies/government need to continue paying it long after inflation is back under control.

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Wolfox

Wolfox

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said:

>50% of what though? Certainly not of the population. Not even of the electorate. Everything's certainly been screwed up for more people than voted for it, so comparatively 'few' indeed.

>50% of those that turned out to vote, like any other election….  Suggesting alternatives is just casuistry, but the outcome remains the same, we are screwed!

Edited by Wolfox
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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said:

>50% of what though? Certainly not of the population. Not even of the electorate. Everything's certainly been screwed up for more people than voted for it, so comparatively 'few' indeed.

And of course, it can turn round the other way.  Approx. 25% of the population voted to stay in the EU, 75% did not.

 

Elections can only go by a majority of those who express an opinion.  The views of the don't knows, don't cares, already-deads, and too-young-to-votes cannot be counted.

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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, nnfox said:

I seem to recall a fair few on here talking about being offered 7%+ pay deals this year.  Most public sector have come out with around 5%, but that's on the back of more than 10 years of between 0 and 2% raises.

 

The thing is that the current inflation situation is temporary and the rate will return.  Offering 10%+ pay rises raises the wage bill forever.  If you get 10% this year and 2% next year, that 2% will be more expensive than if you got 5% this year.

 

I spoke to a fireman last week.  He was expecting to be offered 8-9% and turning it down and striking.  Crazy.

 

A more sensible approach, surely would be to give a 3 or 4% rise and a one off bonus of say 5%, paid over the year or in a lump.  That way workers get the money now, but the long term costs are kept down?

Unfortunately you need to take into account that inflation works that way, too.  If we have 10% inflation this year, and 2% next year, that 2% will cost more than if it hadn't happened.

 

Suppose someone has (round numbers) expenses of £1,000 per month and he has income of £1,000 per month.  Result, contentment.  (Well, sort of!)  If inflation is 10% then his expenses go up to £1,100 and he wants 10% salary rise to £1,100 as well.  If youy only give him 5% then he has £1,050 and can't afford things any more.

 

And next year, his 2% will be worth £21 and he will be on £1,071 but inflation of 2% will take his expenses to £1,122 - because last year's price rises are still there.  Inflation doesn't reset; this year's price rises are included in standard prices for ever.  The 5% bonus would cover the increased prices for this year, but the pricces would still be increased next year when he doesn't get his bonus.  That's why he wants the full 10%.

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fox_favourite

fox_favourite

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

Any pay rise below the inflation rate is a pay cut.

I’m Still waiting for that £50k pay rise. That should cover inflation Haha. 
 

But in all seriousness, I have never felt so skint. I’m normally think that I’m not too bad with money and don’t drink very much (1 pint in the last 2 months), don’t smoke, don’t really eat out (occasionally a McDs a month), don’t go out at all etc…but the last few months I’ve noticed the family pot is stretched like never before.  The last couple of letters that we’ve had have been bills asking for more money. We’ve limited the heating to half an hour a day if/when it’s too cold in the house and set it to 17 degrees max for that half an hour.

 

Me and Mrs FF have agreed no presents this xmas so we can concentrate on the kids as well and limiting cost as well. 
 

Feel for those on very low income and have families, must be so stressful and hard to balance everything. 

Edited by fox_favourite
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Bellend Sebastian

Bellend Sebastian

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B08K35L4RL?smid=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&tag=pepperugc03-21&ascsubtag=2430645808

 

Seems a good deal @Bellend Sebastian if your still looking

Cheers for that, I might still get one but as I didn't think I'd be able to I blew the budget on a security camera!

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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
On 18/11/2022 at 17:38, nnfox said:

I seem to recall a fair few on here talking about being offered 7%+ pay deals this year.  Most public sector have come out with around 5%, but that's on the back of more than 10 years of between 0 and 2% raises.

 

The thing is that the current inflation situation is temporary and the rate will return.  Offering 10%+ pay rises raises the wage bill forever.  If you get 10% this year and 2% next year, that 2% will be more expensive than if you got 5% this year.

 

I spoke to a fireman last week.  He was expecting to be offered 8-9% and turning it down and striking.  Crazy.

 

A more sensible approach, surely would be to give a 3 or 4% rise and a one off bonus of say 5%, paid over the year or in a lump.  That way workers get the money now, but the long term costs are kept down?

Your plan is good if workers take a pay cut in periods of deflation……

but then when has deflation ever actually happened here beyond  the odd quarter here or there ??

 

if inflation is 10% this year then that’s pretty much baked in forever.  5% inflation next year will mean costs are 15% higher than last year. 
 

your one off COL bonus payment is fine this year but next year it will be needed again without any deflation occurring 

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grobyfox1990

grobyfox1990

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Your plan is good if workers take a pay cut in periods of deflation……

but then when has deflation ever actually happened here beyond  the odd quarter here or there ??

 

if inflation is 10% this year then that’s pretty much baked in forever.  5% inflation next year will mean costs are 15% higher than last year. 
 

your one off COL bonus payment is fine this year but next year it will be needed again without any deflation occurring 

15.5% higher than last year not 15. Compound interest innit

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