The I cant believe it’s not politics thread.

[Fazzer 7]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

Have you got the actual article, rather than just the headline please?

No. I can’t seem to copy and paste the link. Probably because it’s behind the telegraph’s paywall, unless you know of a way to do it. 

[Fazzer 7]

1 hour ago, weller54 said:

Don't blame the French (or any other EU member Country) for thoroughly disliking the English!!..

The way the shambles of Brexit was handled by our liar-in-chief and that cretin Frost, fvcking about and threatening to break international law (which is still in place!!).... can you blame them?

Total arrogance and thinking we're so fvcking superior to everyone else!!

Ashamed to be associated with this Country these days.

The damage Brexit has done is just heartbreaking....

and for what????🤬🤬🤬🤬

I never voted for Brexit, just for the record. But it’s happened so everyone needs to accept that and get on with it. It’s not Frost or Johnson that suffers it’s the thousands of people travelling to the EU to spend their money there. They could do with remembering that instead of putting obstacles in at every opportunity. 

[Fazzer 7]

26 minutes ago, Captain... said:

Behind a paywall, but Bloomberg have a version of the story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-24/france-blocks-efforts-to-increase-eurostar-services-telegraph

 

"Eurostar wants to increase the number of trips between London and Paris to 17 a day, the newspaper reported. But French border and security officials at Gare du Nord say that they can manage only a maximum of 13 trains a day even amid a boom in demand for overseas travel this summer, according to the publication."

It also said pre pandemic Eurostar ran 25 shuttles including onward to brussels and Amsterdam. It then went on to say they, the French were suffering chronic shortages of security and scanning staff and couldn’t handle more trains. 

[weller54]

10 minutes ago, Fazzer 7 said:

I never voted for Brexit, just for the record. But it’s happened so everyone needs to accept that and get on with it. It’s not Frost or Johnson that suffers it’s the thousands of people travelling to the EU to spend their money there. They could do with remembering that instead of putting obstacles in at every opportunity. 

I will never accept it!!..

and there are many thousands who feel the same!  It was a fraudulent referendum built on lies and fantasies!....

Why is it not beyond the realms of possibly that one day we will rejoin!!?....

Accept it won't happen for a couple of decades while the stupid old gits of my generation (60-70 year olds), are still hanging onto 'We're British!!.. who won the bloody war anyway ' attitude!!  But hopefully the next generation will see sense and demand another referendum!!

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, weller54 said:

Accept it won't happen for a couple of decades while the stupid old gits of my generation (60-70 year olds), are still hanging onto 'We're British!!.. who won the bloody war anyway ' attitude!!  But hopefully the next generation will see sense and demand another referendum!!

 

If this ever happens, I wonder how it would happen in practice?

It might have to be like in the 70s when the (Tory) Govt first took us into the EEC without a referendum - and we then had one (under Labour) to confirm we wanted to stay in? 

Though realistically, after the Brexit controversy, that could only happen if there was clearly overwhelming support for EU membership, not just polls showing 52-48 the other way round

 

More likely the Govt would have to negotiate (very demanding) terms of re-entry with the EU - and then put them to a confirmatory referendum?

Again, they'd have to be very confident that they'd win the referendum. Any doubt and I can't see any Govt wanting to take the risk - or the EU wanting to negotiate terms with us.

 

Staging a referendum without pre-agreed terms would be fraught with danger:

- It would have to be Yes/No to applying for membership, but each existing EU nation would have a veto....would be embarrassing to stage a referendum to apply and then have, say, France veto the application (as De Gaulle did in 1963 & 1967). 

- We wouldn't know what conditions the EU or individual EU states might impose for accepting us back in: e.g. Spain might demand Gibraltar or, say, Italy or Hungary might demand that the UK took a lot more migrants, others might want bigger UK financial contributions.....

 

Could be a long time happening, I'm afraid.... 

 

[kenny]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If this ever happens, I wonder how it would happen in practice?

It might have to be like in the 70s when the (Tory) Govt first took us into the EEC without a referendum - and we then had one (under Labour) to confirm we wanted to stay in? 

Though realistically, after the Brexit controversy, that could only happen if there was clearly overwhelming support for EU membership, not just polls showing 52-48 the other way round

 

More likely the Govt would have to negotiate (very demanding) terms of re-entry with the EU - and then put them to a confirmatory referendum?

Again, they'd have to be very confident that they'd win the referendum. Any doubt and I can't see any Govt wanting to take the risk - or the EU wanting to negotiate terms with us.

 

Staging a referendum without pre-agreed terms would be fraught with danger:

- It would have to be Yes/No to applying for membership, but each existing EU nation would have a veto....would be embarrassing to stage a referendum to apply and then have, say, France veto the application (as De Gaulle did in 1963 & 1967). 

- We wouldn't know what conditions the EU or individual EU states might impose for accepting us back in: e.g. Spain might demand Gibraltar or, say, Italy or Hungary might demand that the UK took a lot more migrants, others might want bigger UK financial contributions.....

 

Could be a long time happening, I'm afraid.... 

 

We would be allowed back in without issue but on the same terms as any other country that joins. So we would be paying much more than we were and would be joining the Euro as well as Schengen.

 

Edited 24 July 2022 by kenny

[z-layrex]

4 hours ago, weller54 said:

Don't blame the French (or any other EU member Country) for thoroughly disliking the English!!..

The way the shambles of Brexit was handled by our liar-in-chief and that cretin Frost, fvcking about and threatening to break international law (which is still in place!!).... can you blame them?

Total arrogance and thinking we're so fvcking superior to everyone else!!

Ashamed to be associated with this Country these days.

The damage Brexit has done is just heartbreaking....

and for what????🤬🤬🤬🤬

Exactly. When they make it as hard as possible for the English to get in I do not blame them one bit.

 

I'll also openly admit to voting Brexit, I was younger, stupider and was probably one of the dumbest things I've ever done.

 

I will say though I tried to change it at the last minute, but my family had already submitted my vote for me as instructed (ironically I was in Portugal at the time).

 

I think Russia has made it more obvious than ever that we all just need to be together.

Edited 24 July 2022 by z-layrex

[st albans fox]

36 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If this ever happens, I wonder how it would happen in practice?

It might have to be like in the 70s when the (Tory) Govt first took us into the EEC without a referendum - and we then had one (under Labour) to confirm we wanted to stay in? 

Though realistically, after the Brexit controversy, that could only happen if there was clearly overwhelming support for EU membership, not just polls showing 52-48 the other way round

 

More likely the Govt would have to negotiate (very demanding) terms of re-entry with the EU - and then put them to a confirmatory referendum?

Again, they'd have to be very confident that they'd win the referendum. Any doubt and I can't see any Govt wanting to take the risk - or the EU wanting to negotiate terms with us.

 

Staging a referendum without pre-agreed terms would be fraught with danger:

- It would have to be Yes/No to applying for membership, but each existing EU nation would have a veto....would be embarrassing to stage a referendum to apply and then have, say, France veto the application (as De Gaulle did in 1963 & 1967). 

- We wouldn't know what conditions the EU or individual EU states might impose for accepting us back in: e.g. Spain might demand Gibraltar or, say, Italy or Hungary might demand that the UK took a lot more migrants, others might want bigger UK financial contributions.....

 

Could be a long time happening, I'm afraid.... 

 

Just as the tories made the 2019 election a single issue vote, I wonder when the Lib Dems will do the same?  if Labour and the tories are both committed to the 2016 result then their vote won’t polarise around leavers.  Surely the Lib Dems have nothing to lose by campaigning* around a commitment to rejoin without another referendum. It could blindside the other parties. 

[bovril]

I do sympathise with people affected by it but anecdotally (inc. some posters on here) it seems loads of people voted for Brexit while also living or having some close connection to another EU country which is just insane for me and I struggle to have that much sympathy for those. 

[Voll Blau]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Just as the tories made the 2019 election a single issue vote, I wonder when the Lib Dems will do the same?  if Labour and the tories are both committed to the 2016 result then their vote won’t polarise around leavers.  Surely the Lib Dems have nothing to lose by campaigning* around a commitment to rejoin without another referendum. It could blindside the other parties. 

No chance while they're trying to hoover up votes from disaffected Tories across the South of England.

[taupe]

Do people really think "the French" have got it in for the UK? They have got there own shizzle going on you know. Not dissimilar stuff either; cost of living, energy prices, petrol prices, jobs, pay etc etc etc etc  Honestly, what does or doesn't happen the other side of the channel really doesn't feature as a daily concern. Believe it or not, the fires in the Gironde are headline news, not what's happening at Dover. 

[weller54]

14 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

Exactly. When they make it as hard as possible for the English to get in I do not blame them one bit.

 

I'll also openly admit to voting Brexit, I was younger, stupider and was probably one of the dumbest things I've ever done.

 

I will say though I tried to change it at the last minute, but my family had already submitted my vote for me as instructed (ironically I was in Portugal at the time).

 

I think Russia has made it more obvious than ever that we all just need to be together.

Well done you for admitting you got it wrong!!....

I'd be interested to know why you first thought you would vote leave?.... Was it family pressure?

Was it the scaremongering?...

My wife was told by her older brother that if we stay in the EU , our Grandson would likely to be conscipted into an EU Army at sometime in the future!!!😂....one of the reasons she voted to leave FFS!!

..but even now she won't admit she was conned!.... too proud to swallow her pride!!!!

 

Edited 24 July 2022 by weller54

[z-layrex]

3 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Well done you for admitting you got it wrong!!....

I'd be interested to know why you first thought you would vote leave?.... Was it family pressure?

Was it the scaremongering?...

My wife was told by her older brother that if we stay in the EU , our Grandson would likely to be conscipted into an EU Army at sometime in the future!!!😂....one of the reasons she voted to leave FFS!!

..but even now she won't admit she was conned!.... too proud to swallow her pride!!!!

 

For me? Literally the dumbest reason ever.

 

It was mine and my wife's first flat. We lived next door to 3 Romanian families living illegally in a 2 bed flat who made our lives a living hell for various reasons. I honestly voted leave thinking it would stop people like them being in the UK so easily.

[Alf Bentley]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Just as the tories made the 2019 election a single issue vote, I wonder when the Lib Dems will do the same?  if Labour and the tories are both committed to the 2016 result then their vote won’t polarise around leavers.  Surely the Lib Dems have nothing to lose by campaigning* around a commitment to rejoin without another referendum. It could blindside the other parties. 

 

The LDs went big on opposing Brexit in 2019 and that didn't end well.

 

While 2024 isn't 2019, I can't see lots of voters being swayed by a desire to reopen the Brexit can of worms immediately. 2029 or later might offer more fertile ground, but that's an awful long time in the future re. politics, events etc.

Surely much more likely that issues like cost of living, tax, public services, economy, even global warming will be more central in 2024?

 

Any voters mainly focused on rejoining the EU will already know that the LDs are a pro-EU party. As Voll Blau implies, I reckon they'd be much better advised to adopt a more long-termist EU policy (as they have done) so as not to scare off disillusioned ex-Tory voters (their main route to winning seats), many of whom will be Brexiteers who are still pro-Brexit or simply don't want the issue opened up again.

 

 

[st albans fox]

14 minutes ago, taupe said:

Do people really think "the French" have got it in for the UK? They have got there own shizzle going on you know. Not dissimilar stuff either; cost of living, energy prices, petrol prices, jobs, pay etc etc etc etc  Honestly, what does or doesn't happen the other side of the channel really doesn't feature as a daily concern. Believe it or not, the fires in the Gironde are headline news, not what's happening at Dover. 

Why should they invest to speed up immigration checks for U.K. tourists?  I expect they are hoping that the events of this weekend will force the U.K. govt to at the very least share the increased costs. 

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The LDs went big on opposing Brexit in 2019 and that didn't end well.

 

While 2024 isn't 2019, I can't see lots of voters being swayed by a desire to reopen the Brexit can of worms immediately. 2029 or later might offer more fertile ground, but that's an awful long time in the future re. politics, events etc.

Surely much more likely that issues like cost of living, tax, public services, economy, even global warming will be more central in 2024?

 

Any voters mainly focused on rejoining the EU will already know that the LDs are a pro-EU party. As Voll Blau implies, I reckon they'd be much better advised to adopt a more long-termist EU policy (as they have done) so as not to scare off disillusioned ex-Tory voters (their main route to winning seats), many of whom will be Brexiteers who are still pro-Brexit or simply don't want the issue opened up again.

 

 

The 2024 election may well be attractive for them to try and attack Tory seats in the south of England. My point is that there is 50% of the electorate who wanted to stay and are likely pretty effed off at what has happened over the past few years and where we’ve ended up. 
 

In 2019, they did badly because the tories ran the election on vote Tory = get brexit done and cleaned up on that basis (plus the corbyn effect on the middle ground). 
 

I just wonder if a straight vote Lib Dem and return to EU membership would enable them to win more seats than the usual approach. A lot of voters won’t give them their vote because they don’t really get what the Lib Dems would do and that voting for them is a waste. 
 

 

[Alf Bentley]

51 minutes ago, kenny said:

We would be allowed back in without issue but on the same terms as any other country that joins. So we would be paying much more than we were and would be joining the Euro as well as Schengen.

 

 

I'm not sure about us being allowed back "without issue". Matter of opinion - and would depend on circumstances at the time, I suppose. But I can imagine a few (or even many) countries having an issue with it, particularly after all the hassle over Brexit. 

 

Requiring use of the Euro or Schengen membership would also be controversial, not least as 8 current EU members don't use the Euro and 5 EU members (including Ireland) are not in Schengen. The EU has yet to force them to join the Euro or Schengen....

[taupe]

Priorities of spending and staffing exist everywhere, for every govt and authority, regional and national. Immigration control at Dover isn't a major issue on the scale of things. It's not personal.

 

I read an interesting remark earlier with regard to passport checks at airports. How many flights come in? How many passengers on a plane? How many are non-EU?  Resource can be (and is) reallocated as and when needed. How long does it take to process each non-EU passenger arriving in France? It's pretty quick but still takes, what, a minute. So a small queue may well form. Now scale that up to what's happening at Dover. How many people are waiting? How long would it take to process that number of people? 

[Foxdiamond]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The LDs went big on opposing Brexit in 2019 and that didn't end well.

 

While 2024 isn't 2019, I can't see lots of voters being swayed by a desire to reopen the Brexit can of worms immediately. 2029 or later might offer more fertile ground, but that's an awful long time in the future re. politics, events etc.

Surely much more likely that issues like cost of living, tax, public services, economy, even global warming will be more central in 2024?

 

Any voters mainly focused on rejoining the EU will already know that the LDs are a pro-EU party. As Voll Blau implies, I reckon they'd be much better advised to adopt a more long-termist EU policy (as they have done) so as not to scare off disillusioned ex-Tory voters (their main route to winning seats), many of whom will be Brexiteers who are still pro-Brexit or simply don't want the issue opened up again.

 

 

The Lib Democrats got caned for their part in the coalition. I suppose they paid the price for getting into bed with the Tories. Ironic really as they stopped a lot of the more right wing policies. 

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The 2024 election may well be attractive for them to try and attack Tory seats in the south of England. My point is that there is 50% of the electorate who wanted to stay and are likely pretty effed off at what has happened over the past few years and where we’ve ended up. 
 

In 2019, they did badly because the tories ran the election on vote Tory = get brexit done and cleaned up on that basis (plus the corbyn effect on the middle ground). 
 

I just wonder if a straight vote Lib Dem and return to EU membership would enable them to win more seats than the usual approach. A lot of voters won’t give them their vote because they don’t really get what the Lib Dems would do and that voting for them is a waste. 
 

 

 

There may be 50%+ who'd now opt to remain, but for how many of them is rejoining the EU going to be the main issue, or even an important issue, at the 2024 election? Very few, I reckon.

 

A lot of people are effed off at what has happened over recent years, but how many of those people blame that on Brexit (other than those who were committed Remainers in the first place?

An awful lot of people blame the Govt for their discontent, while either still supporting Brexit or not wanting the whole issue opened up again.

 

Matter of opinion, but I reckon the LDs are right to adopt a long-termist approach to the EU for now. I reckon adopting the strategy you suggest would destroy their chances of potentially making a meaningful breakthrough in 2024, perhaps holding the balance of power and maybe even being able to persuade a Labour minority govt to legislate for electoral reform, which would be a game changer for them.

 

I reckon there are a lot of 2019 Tory voters in the South who are disgusted at all the Boris shenanigans, lying and corruption - and others who'll be alienated by the state of public services, economic management etc. The LDs could have a big pool of potential voters in the South and more prosperous trad Tory areas nationwide, most of them not focused on rejoining the EU.

[Sampson]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'm not sure about us being allowed back "without issue". Matter of opinion - and would depend on circumstances at the time, I suppose. But I can imagine a few (or even many) countries having an issue with it, particularly after all the hassle over Brexit. 

 

Requiring use of the Euro or Schengen membership would also be controversial, not least as 8 current EU members don't use the Euro and 5 EU members (including Ireland) are not in Schengen. The EU has yet to force them to join the Euro or Schengen....

That’s because these countries either joined before the rules on the Euro and Schengen changed or are still in the process of joining the Euro or Schengen. Nowadays it’s EU law that new joiners have to join the Euro and Schengen, it previously wasn’t.

 

UK and Ireland always had an opt-out of Schengen as we already had the CTA. Ireland was always in favour of Schengen and only decided against it because the UK didn’t want to join which would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland which neither the UK or Ireland obviously wanted. 
 

If the UK went back into the EU and joined Schengen then I’m 99.99% sure that Ireland would just chose to join Schengen as well. Ireland is one of the most pro-EU countries about.

 

This is also the biggest issue with Scotland getting independence and rejoining the EU btw. Scotland joining the EU would mean they’d have to join Schengen and therefore they’d have to a hard boarder with Scotland and the rest of the UK, Ireland, Isle of Man and Channel Islands.

 

This is the reason Norway and Iceland both joined Schengen despite not being in the EU - because the Nordic countries have always had freedom of movement and aren’t considered foreigners in each other’s countries, much like UK and Irish citizens are not legally considered foreigners in each other’s countries- and as Sweden, Denmark and Finland all joined Schengen, it would mean Norway and Iceland would have to put a hard border up in the Nordics if they didn’t,

Edited 24 July 2022 by Sampson

[kenny]

13 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'm not sure about us being allowed back "without issue". Matter of opinion - and would depend on circumstances at the time, I suppose. But I can imagine a few (or even many) countries having an issue with it, particularly after all the hassle over Brexit. 

 

Requiring use of the Euro or Schengen membership would also be controversial, not least as 8 current EU members don't use the Euro and 5 EU members (including Ireland) are not in Schengen. The EU has yet to force them to join the Euro or Schengen....

Any country that satisfies the conditions for membership can apply. These conditions are known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ and include a stable democracy and the rule of law, a functioning market economy and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro.

 

As with ourselves, existing members can opt out of certain things. All new countries must comply.

 

There is no way the EU wouldn't take the chance to get rid of sterling if it were offered.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Foxdiamond said:

The Lib Democrats got caned for their part in the coalition. I suppose they paid the price for getting into bed with the Tories. Ironic really as they stopped a lot of the more right wing policies. 

 

The LDs mainly got caned for their part in the coalition at the 2015 election, though they probably still missed out on a fair few Labour tactical votes in 2019 due to long memories of 2010-15.

In 2019, they also failed to get close to retaking the large swathe of Brexit-voting seats in the SW they'd held until 2015 - presumably partly due to their Rejoin EU policy. They only recovered significant ground in a handful of very prosperous, very Europhile seats in the SE, not in their former SW heartlands.

 

In coalition, the LDs may have acted as a brake on right-wing Tory ambitions in some spheres (Europe? Civil Rights?) but they didn't do much to restrain Tory austerity policies and their economic/social impact.

 

 

[Dunge]

I can see a “Rejoin” policy on the EU chasing a lot of votes away that are needed by Labour and Lib Dems, Labour in particular.

 

I very much doubt the EU would let us back in, same terms, all forgiven. There would surely be demands on reduced voting power (compared to before), joining Schengen and definitely the Euro. They’d want us so ingrained as to make it practically impossible to leave again.

[Fazzer 7]

1 hour ago, z-layrex said:

Exactly. When they make it as hard as possible for the English to get in I do not blame them one bit.

 

I'll also openly admit to voting Brexit, I was younger, stupider and was probably one of the dumbest things I've ever done.

 

I will say though I tried to change it at the last minute, but my family had already submitted my vote for me as instructed (ironically I was in Portugal at the time).

 

I think Russia has made it more obvious than ever that we all just need to be together.

I don’t understand this mindset really. Why do that when Brits are going there to spend money in their economy. I can’t imagine we’re making it difficult for French or any other EU citizens coming here.  I cast my mind back to the French’s treatment of Liverpool fans at the CL final. They have form for this sort of thing.