Sampson Posted 26 August 2022 Share Posted 26 August 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said: We got 2 goals from an xG of 0.46 against Brentford. Whilst we did dominate the ball we aren’t creating clear chances. Against Southampton, one of the worse teams and defences in the league, we had an xG of 0.32. That is the worst I’ve seen a team do against Southampton in recent years… @AjcW is right, we have been lucky and are significantly outperforming the quality of chances we are creating. We are BOTTOM of the premier league for big chances created and BOTTOM of the premier league for big chances conceded. It’s no coincidence that we are almost bottom of the league. We are genuinely bad at the two key aspects of the game. And filbertway was talking about individual quality trumping over tactics while xG by definition measures average or mediocre quality We have for several seasons well outperformed xG due to the quality of players like Vardy, Maddison and Mahrez. You can’t say Maddison’s goal was luck compared to xG when he’s got the most goals in the division from outside the area since we signed him - that free-kick was pure individual quality, which Maddison is well above the mean average at scoring from that range. Vardy also almost always massively outperforms his xG because he is one of the best finishers in the world and xG measures the ability of an average finisher by definition. filbertway’s point was that we have individual quality which bails us out in comparison to tactics or chances created, which is not luck and xG by definition measures the probability of chances for an average, run-of-the-mill player, not a high quality one. Edited 26 August 2022 by Sampson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 26 August 2022 Author Share Posted 26 August 2022 17 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said: We got 2 goals from an xG of 0.46 against Brentford. Whilst we did dominate the ball we aren’t creating clear chances. Against Southampton, one of the worse teams and defences in the league, we had an xG of 0.32. That is the worst I’ve seen a team do against Southampton in recent years… @AjcW is right, we have been lucky and are significantly outperforming the quality of chances we are creating. We are BOTTOM of the premier league for big chances created and BOTTOM of the premier league for big chances conceded. It’s no coincidence that we are almost bottom of the league. We are genuinely bad at the two key aspects of the game. XG should never be used in a single match basis! Ever! Its statistically meaningless and does not take into account moments of quality and brilliance that we love in the game. XG can possibly be used to track over a long period of time, but even then there are far too many variables in football for the metric to ever be used as a reliable indicator of success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxesWalk Posted 26 August 2022 Share Posted 26 August 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: XG should never be used in a single match basis! Ever! Its statistically meaningless and does not take into account moments of quality and brilliance that we love in the game. XG can possibly be used to track over a long period of time, but even then there are far too many variables in football for the metric to ever be used as a reliable indicator of success. How many more games of us being bottom of the league for chances conceded and chances created would it take for you to be concerned? We’ve played Arsenal and two very bearable sides, and yet we are the worst in the league on both counts. xG is flaws, it also very useful, it shows we are relying on individual brilliance for our goals, which is fine, except players go in and out of form and get injured… then what? So far it’s essentially Maddison alone making it look better than it should based on our system of play, he is now injured… Edited 26 August 2022 by FoxesWalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 26 August 2022 Author Share Posted 26 August 2022 1 minute ago, FoxesWalk said: How many more games of us being bottom of the league for chances conceded and chances created would it take for you to be concerned? We’ve played Arsenal and two very bearable sides, and yet we are the worst in the league on both counts. xG is flaws, it also very useful, it shows we are relying on individual brilliance for our goals, which is fine, except players go in and out of form and get injured… then what? So far it’s essentially Maddison alone making it look better than it should based on our system of play, he is now injured… I’m not concerned at all by our attacking play. We are one of the top scorers in the league and have been for the last few seasons. XG I’ll reiterate is useless at looking at on an individual game basis. It should never be used in that way. Chances conceded and the defensive make up is where our concerns are. With players like Maddison, Barnes, Vardy we will always score goals. If we can improve defensively we’ll move up the table in no time - if we can’t we are in trouble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tielemans63 Posted 26 August 2022 Share Posted 26 August 2022 Lampard: "We're really struggling for goals, we need someone to convert those chances.' Everton DofF: "Say no more" Neal Maupay: Everton sign striker from Brighton - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/62695388 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 26 August 2022 Share Posted 26 August 2022 Why all the fuss about Gary Neville celebrating goals on commentary the other night? Sky have been having partisan commentary for years and most clubs don't get their own fanboy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 (edited) Unbelievable how Southampton have stopped Man Utd scoring there. Edited 27 August 2022 by Facecloth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suzie the Fox Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Wow, thats how to defend Southampton. How did Man Utd not score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bordersfox Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Che Adams finishing back to its normal shite level I see. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 On 26/08/2022 at 12:29, st albans fox said: We have vards but he bullies by clever movement - we have no one who can stick a shoulder into anyone I think even Vardy has somewhat lost his 'nasty', 'ruthless' streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lildave3 Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 On 26/08/2022 at 13:52, Aus Fox said: XG should never be used in a single match basis! Ever! Its statistically meaningless and does not take into account moments of quality and brilliance that we love in the game. XG can possibly be used to track over a long period of time, but even then there are far too many variables in football for the metric to ever be used as a reliable indicator of success. I 100% guarantee you that if you bet on games based on xG rather than actual results you would do better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunbury Fox Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Bella-Kotchap looks like an excellent young centre back for Southampton. What did he cost, £12m? He's the sort of player we should be looking at to replace Fofana, not the likes of Bednarek or Akanji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Is the Bednarek thing actually serious or just the Southampton link stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxyLeon Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 I tell you something, for a bunch of serial winners, the ex-Man United players are as delusional as anyone who comments on Football, Ferdinand/Neville/Scholes etc, even Keane to a lesser extent. Ferdinand has just claimed that Southampton have "Done a Stoke under Pulis" and have "Let the grass grow long" to stop 'Yanited' playing. What has he been watching since Fergie left? They've been crap for years pal. It reminded me of when that bloke from AFTV blamed the rain for a defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Were Stoke known for letting the grass grow long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unabomber Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 2 handballs then and shock Man U get away with it. So dodgy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester_Loyal Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 30 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said: Bella-Kotchap looks like an excellent young centre back for Southampton. What did he cost, £12m? He's the sort of player we should be looking at to replace Fofana, not the likes of Bednarek or Akanji. Looks a fantastic player so far, early days yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dahnsouff Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Why wasn’t that a penalty, or at least a free kick on the edge of the box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HybridFox Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Guarantee that would be a pen against us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingsX Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 MCTominay stops it, controls it, then clears it, all with his elbow. VAR: "no handball" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoyleFox Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 2 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said: Why wasn’t that a penalty, or at least a free kick on the edge of the box? Man United rules. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trugerkem Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 He juggled that ball longer than Gerry Cottle ever could ( one for the oldies there) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Col city fan Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 Che Adams really isn’t much kop is he? Our terrible defence just made him look good I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammie82uk Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 17 minutes ago, FoxyLeon said: I tell you something, for a bunch of serial winners, the ex-Man United players are as delusional as anyone who comments on Football, Ferdinand/Neville/Scholes etc, even Keane to a lesser extent. Ferdinand has just claimed that Southampton have "Done a Stoke under Pulis" and have "Let the grass grow long" to stop 'Yanited' playing. What has he been watching since Fergie left? They've been crap for years pal. It reminded me of when that bloke from AFTV blamed the rain for a defeat. There is a rule about height of the grass as well K.20. The height of the pitch grass shall not exceed 30mm and the entire playing surface must be cut to the same height. The grass shall be cut so as to display straight, parallel lines across the entire width of the pitch, perpendicular to the touchlines. No other form of pitch presentation (such as circular or diagonal patterns) is permitted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 27 August 2022 Share Posted 27 August 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Col city fan said: Che Adams really isn’t much kop is he? Our terrible defence just made him look good I think Our defence is good at letting others shine. I will hate to think what haaland is going to do to it Edited 27 August 2022 by foxes_rule1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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