HankMarvin Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 2 minutes ago, AKCJ said: First site that come up suggested, xG Arsenal 2.52-0.85 Everton anyway that’s even worse and my point was it that it’s significantly more than 15 times more likely to score, more like 139 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumbleFox Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 1 hour ago, Fox92 said: I don't need a stat to tell me we created nothing last week. The evidence was right in front of me at the game. 50 minutes ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said: Because if you watch a football match it's pretty obvious how likely a team is to score. Basically they're either very likely, quite likely, quite unlikely, or couldn't score in a month of Sundays. How is it helpful to have that expressed as an 'expected goals' including decimal places? In all honesty, it might be the name they give it I have an issue with as much as the statistic itself. But on the whole I do think football is better off without statistics. It isn't baseball. (And I don't mean for the clubs; I can see why they try to get any tiny advantage they can in a business of tight margins and high stakes). But they don't improve the experience one jot for me, and of all the statistics I'm presented with if I watch a match on telly, xG is very high up my list of the ones I find pointless. As I say, I'm watching the match. I can see how likely each team is to score. I get all of that if that’s how who you see it. But why just not ignore it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finnegan Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 27 minutes ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said: I was talking about for me on my sofa at home. I'm talking about 'xG' as it exists as a statistic presented to the average consumer. That's what's stupidly useless. Clubs have all sorts of analysis of everything, and that's their lookout. I'm not talking about that. Well then everything is essentially "useless" other than the score and the clock isn't it? And let's be honest, you can live without those. I mean you're watching the game, you can remember how many goals were scored. I mean you at home have no decision making power, you're just a spectator, so ANY stat is completely useless. You have no use for it. You're not going to act on it. Come to think about it, it's pointless you even watching the game. You don't need to watch it, the manager and the players have it locked down they don't need your input, they'll be fine without you. You might as well just hang fire and they'll let you know the result. Come to think of it, I mean, you don't REALLY need to know the result do you? You're not going to do anything with this information, it's not going to change your life at all. I'm sure you could find something more practical to do with your time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bear Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 (edited) xG is an indicator of the quality of the combined chances you had on goal. Nothing more. It doesn't tell the story of a match or how dominant/passive a team was. Edited 2 March 2023 by The Bear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangecity23 Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 The Arsenal game is a bit of an interesting statistical outlier as far as XG is concerned, as we had so few actual chances you can basically look at the 2 chances we did make on an individual basis and see how they conributed to the final stat of 0.01. The only chances we really made were the KDH shot from outside the box that went wide, and Barnes cross across the face of goal that was narrowly missed by Tete at the far post. The KDH shot is the only one that actually seems to get counted, and it feels like 0.01 is a touch on the low side for the chance - it was nice and central, only just outside the boxon his favoured foot, and with not a huge amount of defenders in the way - so a 1% chance of scoring seems a little low. I'd expect it to be a small XG, maybe a 0.05 to 0.1 perhaps, but I think you might expect more than 1 in 100 shots from that position to yield a goal. The Tete chance doesn't even register at all with XG, as no-one ended up taking a shot - but it was actually a good opportunity - Barnes gets into a good position, puts a ball across the box that avoids all the defenders and completely bypasses Ramsdale. Tete is coming in at the far post but hasn't started his run early enough, so fails to connect by a foot or so. If he goes a fraction of a second earlier and makes contact with it, it goes from being uncounted to a very high XG as its point blank range with no keeper to beat. I'd be interested in how the last 25 minutes of play stacked up for ratios of ball in play versus out of play time also. Someone on here said earlier in the week that it was about 9 minutes in the 25 of actual play. Which works out at 36% of the time, and from the stats published recently Prem teams seem to rank in the 50-60% range of in play time. Bit of an odd game in quite alot of regards really, along with being a monumentally shit watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 22 minutes ago, Finnegan said: Well then everything is essentially "useless" other than the score and the clock isn't it? And let's be honest, you can live without those. I mean you're watching the game, you can remember how many goals were scored. I mean you at home have no decision making power, you're just a spectator, so ANY stat is completely useless. You have no use for it. You're not going to act on it. Come to think about it, it's pointless you even watching the game. You don't need to watch it, the manager and the players have it locked down they don't need your input, they'll be fine without you. You might as well just hang fire and they'll let you know the result. Come to think of it, I mean, you don't REALLY need to know the result do you? You're not going to do anything with this information, it's not going to change your life at all. I'm sure you could find something more practical to do with your time. This is my kind of sass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davieG Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 ESPN UK · Antonio Conte has been nominated for Premier League manager of the month for February, despite only being on the touchline for his side's 4-1 defeat against Leicester City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambert09 Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, AKCJ said: Heres the thing that some people dont grasp about Xg and just to be clear, this is in no way a defense of us...or brendan because we were pure muck. Certain teams, build up play in a slower way and wait for a good opening before trying to create. The good sides like man city dont just take long rangers and half chances... they tend to create quality goal scoring chances on a regular basis. A b-tech man city... will settle for attempting more risky passes to create and will snatch at worse opportunities. Then theres a z-tech man city who will wait and wait for that opening for a good chance but because they arent good enough end up creating very little... that can often be us. The big difference here, is that a dyche team will get higher xg because hes going to get them to pump the ball forward in a more direct manor... that leads to some chances but it also leads to alot of turnovers of the ball. We play the patient game so if its not on... we dont tend to go for it. That in no way indicates that everton are better at attacking then us or even more creative... just that their style is to create anything they can... because they are actually a lot worse than us... while brendan wants us to focus on creating a real golden opportunity and focuses on patience. You dont get xg for a player being on the edge of the box but passing it back out to the wing... you do for pumping a long ball thats headed down on the edge of the box and your player smashing it into row z Edited 2 March 2023 by Lambert09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finnegan Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 34 minutes ago, orangecity23 said: The Arsenal game is a bit of an interesting statistical outlier as far as XG is concerned This sentence alone just gave the boomers in the thread a stroke. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 24 minutes ago, Lambert09 said: Heres the thing that some people dont grasp about Xg and just to be clear, this is in no way a defense of us...or brendan because we were pure muck. Certain teams, build up play in a slower way and wait for a good opening before trying to create. The good sides like man city dont just take long rangers and half chances... they tend to create quality goal scoring chances on a regular basis. A b-tech man city... will settle for attempting more risky passes to create and will snatch at worse opportunities. Then theres a z-tech man city who will wait and wait for that opening for a good chance but because they arent good enough end up creating very little... that can often be us. The big difference here, is that a dyche team will get higher xg because hes going to get them to pump the ball forward in a more direct manor... that leads to some chances but it also leads to alot of turnovers of the ball. We play the patient game so if its not on... we dont tend to go for it. That in no way indicates that everton are better at attacking then us or even more creative... just that their style is to create anything they can... because they are actually a lot worse than us... while brendan wants us to focus on creating a real golden opportunity and focuses on patience. You dont get xg for a player being on the edge of the box but passing it back out to the wing... you do for pumping a long ball thats headed down on the edge of the box and your player smashing it into row z If they're creating more/better chances than us. Then it absolutely does mean they're better at attacking. I'm confused by the point you're trying to make here to be honest Playing football unsuited to your players results in less attacking chances. But having better than average players allows you to exceed your xG quite significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambert09 Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, filbertway said: If they're creating more/better chances than us. Then it absolutely does mean they're better at attacking. I'm confused by the point you're trying to make here to be honest Playing football unsuited to your players results in less attacking chances. But having better than average players allows you to exceed your xG quite significantly. Its the difference between patient football and direct mate. Some teams create more but also turn the ball over more. Its down to style of play. You can look and say they created more, but they also shipped 4 goals because maybe they didnt manage the game as well as they should have. If we had a game plan of get the ball to tete, he cuts in and shoots every single time... that might add to the xg tally. But if on 4 occasions he actually rolled the ball out wide to timmy or inside to madison in the hope of carving something more critical ... those actions dont get accounted in the tally. So a patient team on a bad day... will always have a low xg. But a more direct team... should technically get a few more shots off.. at least on principle. Maybe im talking nonsense... but we've been like this since puel. We used to just pass it around and wait for the perfect time to put vardy through.. That wait for the perfect moments mindset is still being pushed by rodgers. It just rules out creating half chances in the quest to wait for a very good chance. Edited 2 March 2023 by Lambert09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 13 minutes ago, Lambert09 said: Its the difference between patient football and direct mate. Some teams create more but also turn the ball over more. Its down to style of play. You can look and say they created more, but they also shipped 4 goals because maybe they didnt manage the game as well as they should have. If we had a game plan of get the ball to tete, he cuts in and shoots every single time... that might add to the xg tally. But if on 4 occasions he actually rolled the ball out wide to timmy or inside to madison in the hope of carving something more critical ... those actions dont get accounted in the tally. So a patient team on a bad day... will always have a low xg. But a more direct team... should technically get a few more shots off.. at least on principle. Maybe im talking nonsense... but we've been like this since puel. We used to just pass it around and wait for the perfect time to put vardy through.. That wait for the perfect moments mindset is still being pushed by rodgers. It just rules out creating half chances in the quest to wait for a very good chance. I understand what you're saying. The funny thing is that we almost exclusively score half chances even with our way of playing If only Rodgers opened his stupid little eyes, he might see he's got the basis of a top 6 team but he's setting them up so poorly that they're playing like championship fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stadt Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 15 minutes ago, filbertway said: I understand what you're saying. The funny thing is that we almost exclusively score half chances even with our way of playing If only Rodgers opened his stupid little eyes, he might see he's got the basis of a top 6 team but he's setting them up so poorly that they're playing like championship fodder. The Rodgers switching it up playbook is to go 3 at the back, it doesn’t work, switch back to a 4, have one more go at a 3, realise it’s the whole approach, take the handbrake off, win a few, then start the cycle over again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 2 minutes ago, Stadt said: The Rodgers switching it up playbook is to go 3 at the back, it doesn’t work, switch back to a 4, have one more go at a 3, realise it’s the whole approach, take the handbrake off, win a few, then start the cycle over again. If we can lynch/kidnap him at the handbrake coming off point, we're onto a winner. We're probably about 4/5 weeks away from that point now though after it came back on at half time v Man U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stadt Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 1 minute ago, filbertway said: If we can lynch/kidnap him at the handbrake coming off point, we're onto a winner. We're probably about 4/5 weeks away from that point now though after it came back on at half time v Man U Even on the handbrake off stage we’ll go 1 up from a 25 yard screamer or deflection. We haven’t been decent (sustainably) since 2021. When will this nightmare end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nalis Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 I was once a bit annoyed by the over reliance of xG on Twitter but its another way of analysing things that adds useful value in conjunction with other stats. Not something that is everything but no football statistic is. For example, possession, shots on target, etc are all useful but dont tell the full story on their own either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Stadt said: Even on the handbrake off stage we’ll go 1 up from a 25 yard screamer or deflection. We haven’t been decent (sustainably) since 2021. When will this nightmare end No idea who but somebody, maybe @Dan LCFC summed it up well when they said something along the lines of... "you can usually console yourself in under performance and bad time and take comfort from the fact that you know action will be taken to try and right the situation" Unfortunately that doesn't apply in our situation. It's depressingly desperate. Edited 2 March 2023 by filbertway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingsX Posted 2 March 2023 Share Posted 2 March 2023 3 hours ago, Finnegan said: Seriously though, how much of a troglodyte do you have to be to not understand the value of a performance indicator that's measuring the quantity and quality of chances created by a team. Honestly baffles me that people are still acting like xG is some sort of hipster science fad that's going to go away. It's obviously a pretty valuable statistic - but all statistics can and are misunderstood and misused by people that don't really 'get' statistics. Which, lets be honest, is a significant amount of the population. Interesting how xG has become the bete noire of those who feel the need to bash statistics so aggressively … maybe because it’s the only one they have heard of? It’s one of the basic stats from the dawn of applying math to football. Just like OPS was in baseball in the Moneyball era. Simple, obvious, and intuitive … but enough people resisted it that it actually gave a few teams competitive advantage for a while. Quantity and quality of chances. Think that’s an important measure of performance? Worth applying across a number of matches, to see how different players and variables are affecting it? Well, you have to abstract it to a number to do that. Photographic memory or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan LCFC Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 6 hours ago, filbertway said: No idea who but somebody, maybe @Dan LCFC summed it up well when they said something along the lines of... "you can usually console yourself in under performance and bad time and take comfort from the fact that you know action will be taken to try and right the situation" Unfortunately that doesn't apply in our situation. It's depressingly desperate. I was unaware you were unlucky enough to have me on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 15 hours ago, Manley Farrington-Brown said: I'm no expert either to be fair. But while I know clubs have massively detailed analysis of how they and everyone else scores/doesn't score, concedes/doesn't concede, I'd be suprised if they find xG much use. actually yes (source being I'm picking up on doing analytics ahead of being a video analyst for a 7th tier women's team next season). the headline stat given by sky or BT isn't as much use as the granular data, splitting it down into xG/shot (are we creating a few great chances or a lot of low quality chances), looking at different attack types (are we making the most of our set pieces, are we creating a lot of our best chances by moving the ball wide etc.) and looking at game states (if we're sitting on the lead and not looking to stretch it, are we well drilled enough to not give up any good opportunities to peg us back). it's very useful for analytics, not so much the headline stat presented by sky and BT but they're not going to present the granular data because it would be meaningless to people who don't have a background in some sort of data analysis and so aren't much at sorting the signal from the noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AjcW Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 Second time this has happened now with these two 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox92 Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 Interesting read that Firminho is expected to leave Liverpool, for free, at the end of the season despite Klopp apparently wanting him to stay, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64840029 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finnegan Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 Just now, Fox92 said: Interesting read that Firminho is expected to leave Liverpool, for free, at the end of the season despite Klopp apparently wanting him to stay, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64840029 I mean he's clearly not first choice, I appreciate Klopp likes him enough to want the cover but he's getting on a bit and obviously wants more minutes. Not that much of a story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFish Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 On 02/03/2023 at 13:22, Facecloth said: When the lies catch up with them Aside from any other criticism of the takeover, the rules are clear on state ownership. Now we all know they Newcastle are state owned by Saudi Arabia but they had supposedly set it all up in a way that those in positions of power at the club weren't involved in the running of the state, and that's why it was allowed to go through. Now he's trying to use the fact he is a member of the Saudi government to get out of some golf related shit in the US. Lies are starting to unravel PL don't care. Now that the piracy issue is resolved, they're too busy Scrooge McDucking in their swimming pool filled with coins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcfc_forever Posted 3 March 2023 Share Posted 3 March 2023 36 minutes ago, TheFish said: PL don't care. Now that the piracy issue is resolved, they're too busy Scrooge McDucking in their swimming pool filled with coins. The PL clubs do care however: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/02/premier-league-newcastle-owners-us-court-case-amnesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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