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ealingfox

Relegation

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12 minutes ago, murphy said:

If we can't beat Brentford or Southampton at home from winning positions, if we can't beat Stockport County, if we can't beat ten men, I have to wonder where the next point is coming from

And for that matter, which 3 teams are worse than us 

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Okay, some contrast on teams with 1 (or less) point after 4 games during the past 10 seasons. 
 

22/23

Leicester - TBC! 

 

21/22

Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley - 2 relegated.
 

All three changed Manager during the season. 
 

36 points to stay up. 

 

20/21

Fulham, Sheffield U, Burnley, WBA - 3 relegated (all finished bottom 4).


Two changed Manager during the season.


29 points to stay up.

 

19/20

Watford - Relegated

 

Changed Manager 3 times during the season. 


35 points to stay up.

 

18/19

West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle - None relegated

 

None changed Manager. 

 

35 points to stay up.

 

17/18

Bournemouth and Crystal Palace - None relegated

 

Neither changed Manager. 

 

34 points to stay up. 

 

16/17

Sunderland and Stoke - 1 relegated. 
 

Neither changed coach. 
 

35 points to stay up. 

 

15/16

None

 

38 points to stay up.

 

14/15

None

 

36 points to stay up.

 

13/14

Sunderland - Didn’t get relegated. 
 

Changed Manager. 
 

34 points to stay up.

 

12/13

Southampton and Reading - One relegated. 
 

Both changed Manager. 
 

37 points to stay up.

 

Over the 10 years

Mean average points to stay up - 34.9 points.

 

So we need another 34 points. That’s 11 wins. So we now need to win 33% of games, or 1 in 3. 

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Holy crap this is getting depressing!

can we just hope and pray on foffana’s move to go thru quick do we can buy reinforcements before the window closes?

this seasons strategy has just changed we are fighting for survival!

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3 hours ago, Sly said:

Okay, some contrast on teams with 1 (or less) point after 4 games during the past 10 seasons. 
 

22/23

Leicester - TBC! 

 

21/22

Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley - 2 relegated.
 

All three changed Manager during the season. 
 

36 points to stay up. 

 

20/21

Fulham, Sheffield U, Burnley, WBA - 3 relegated (all finished bottom 4).


Two changed Manager during the season.


29 points to stay up.

 

19/20

Watford - Relegated

 

Changed Manager 3 times during the season. 


35 points to stay up.

 

18/19

West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle - None relegated

 

None changed Manager. 

 

35 points to stay up.

 

17/18

Bournemouth and Crystal Palace - None relegated

 

Neither changed Manager. 

 

34 points to stay up. 

 

16/17

Sunderland and Stoke - 1 relegated. 
 

Neither changed coach. 
 

35 points to stay up. 

 

15/16

None

 

38 points to stay up.

 

14/15

None

 

36 points to stay up.

 

13/14

Sunderland - Didn’t get relegated. 
 

Changed Manager. 
 

34 points to stay up.

 

12/13

Southampton and Reading - One relegated. 
 

Both changed Manager. 
 

37 points to stay up.

 

Over the 10 years

Mean average points to stay up - 34.9 points.

 

So we need another 34 points. That’s 11 wins. So we now need to win 33% of games, or 1 in 3. 

They don't give points for draws anymore?

 

In any event yes, the track record for teams with 1 point after 4 matches is not good (55% relegated).  I hate to think what it is for teams with 1 point after 6, because we're staring at that pretty hard.

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10 hours ago, splinterdream said:

They aren’t miles ahead, we’re a couple of decent signings away, stadium atmosphere and team spirit though I’d agree

Which I don't think we will get in before the window closes.

a) Chelsea is the main factor here, as until thay actually stump up for Forfana, we are a bit short on 'pennies'. The longer they draw it out, the less time we have to........ Yep, you know the rest..

 

b) I don't personally trust Rodgers (if the reports on him having quite a large influence on who we get is true) in his future purchases. Judging by his past history overall, it's/he's been a bit - 'Meh' (yes, yes we have had a few good buys before, I accept that, but lets not forget most of his signings are Cr@p or being leftout of the side or being pushed to find new clubs) 

Also It confuses me when I see posts saying we need to give it, say 10 games and re-assess then.. Madness, in another 5 games at our current trajectory, 17th spot could be 6 to 9 points away, so it would need 3 wins with no movement from the current occupiers of 17th for us to break even, then a few more wins ontop to overtake them.  We need a change now whilst 17th is only 1 win away. 

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Got to appreciate the irony of Rodgers

comments a few months ago about us being happy just to stay in the league. I mean that hasn’t been the case since 2014/15 but suddenly now he has turned us into that….


We can only hope the board and Top do not take an arrogant view that we’ll be ‘too good to go down’ as that is head in the sand behaviour! It has to be clear to all now that even thought you can appreciate the FA cup and 5th place finishes, and even if you think BR will do well elsewhere (which he probably will), that he he stays, we are only going one way whether that’s this year or next. 

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18 minutes ago, Guppys Love Child said:

Which I don't think we will get in before the window closes.

a) Chelsea is the main factor here, as until thay actually stump up for Forfana, we are a bit short on 'pennies'. The longer they draw it out, the less time we have to........ Yep, you know the rest..

 

b) I don't personally trust Rodgers (if the reports on him having quite a large influence on who we get is true) in his future purchases. Judging by his past history overall, it's/he's been a bit - 'Meh' (yes, yes we have had a few good buys before, I accept that, but lets not forget most of his signings are Cr@p or being leftout of the side or being pushed to find new clubs) 

Also It confuses me when I see posts saying we need to give it, say 10 games and re-assess then.. Madness, in another 5 games at our current trajectory, 17th spot could be 6 to 9 points away, so it would need 3 wins with no movement from the current occupiers of 17th for us to break even, then a few more wins ontop to overtake them.  We need a change now whilst 17th is only 1 win away. 

A deal is agreed for Fofana the money is coming. Its all about the medical side of things now which might take a while due to Fofanas injury last year. 
 

The real problem is that the money will probably not be released for transfers, i’m sure Tanner was saying that even if Fofana left we’d only be able to get a replacement/cover at best as there are still too many players in the squad. 
 

If the club are getting 65 million and still aren’t willing to cut a player or two out of the squad then you know we are in some trouble. 

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4 hours ago, cruzFOX said:

Holy crap this is getting depressing!

can we just hope and pray on foffana’s move to go thru quick do we can buy reinforcements before the window closes?

this seasons strategy has just changed we are fighting for survival!

Buying now will just make things worse

 

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1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

It's not the short term results people are worried about ffs.

So why are people bleating about the table, because 4 games is short term.

 

Long term if it continues BR gets sack, if its true what we all think i.e his the problem we don't have a issue as long as the board is quick to act.

Edited by coolhandfox
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1 hour ago, alanf0x said:

At the moment, I could not name 3 worse teams than us, so a strong possibility. 
 

A massive few days ahead to strengthen the squad.

Fortunetly the season is played over 38 games and not 4.

 

Over the course of a season things will be different. I don't even know why they show the league table this early on. Look at us in 14/15, had a decent start, but once we were 10+ games in we were bottom and couldn't shift ourselves. 

 

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1 minute ago, Fox92 said:

Fortunetly the season is played over 38 games and not 4.

 

Over the course of a season things will be different. I don't even know why they show the league table this early on. Look at us in 14/15, had a decent start, but once we were 10+ games in we were bottom and couldn't shift ourselves. 

 

55% of all teams with 1 point after 4 matches have gone on to be relegated.

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2 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

55% of all teams with 1 point after 4 matches have gone on to be relegated.

Fair enough. I cannot argue with the past but there's always sides that can change the stat though.

 

Just like we were told we were relegated at Christmas under Pearson.

 

I'm not saying we won't go down, we certainly look it atm, but I'm not gonna jump to that conclusion 4 games in. Football is played over a season, over 30+ games, there's a long way to go yet with or without Rodgers and some of these players.

Edited by Fox92
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The problems we have with ffp are well documented, so we still wouldn't be able to spend the Fofana money without moving a couple more players out. Getting quality players to sign when we're bottom of the league and with a manager on thin ice may be another problem ,but the clock is ticking so maybe loan signings are the way to go. Three or four quality players with a point to prove without the immediate long term commitment might be ideal. I doubt the board would still trust Rodgers to use the money wisely anyway.

Incidentally,if the Fofana deal was agreed on Friday,why does it take until Monday to fly him to America for a medical? As I said, the clock's ticking.

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