Relegation

[Tim1974]

It ain't over 'til it's over.

 

Come on you blue boys!!!!

[Chelmofox]

9 minutes ago, Dames said:

Literally 90% of this forum and neutral fans would say this and have said this. 

That's irrelevant. Even if someone thinks we are the better team, you don't win by just turning up. Thats the reason why Southampton got a draw against Arsenal or Bournmouth beat Liverpool. Sometimes the one you think is better doesn't always win.

 

4 games to go. Buckle up, cos its going to get uglier.

[Number 6]

A 3 point return over the next 3 games would be very good, and I think most here would take it. But even then we'd not be mathematically safe in the West Ham game unless we stopped out GD getting battered by Pool and Newcastle. Squeaky bum time indeed.

[Ricey]

It's not the league table or the fixtures that fill me with doom, it's the mentality of this team and the fact that we still haven't found any balance or a semblance of a first-choice 11.

 

I don't trust this group in a battle and I'm losing faith that Smith can rustle something together tactically that starts generating wins.

 

If we stay up it's because Leeds and Everton have sank.

[wardyfox86]

I'd spent the last month trying to decipher where each team will pick up the required points, but I'm done with it now.

 

We could stay up without picking up another point, we could go down picking up 4.

 

There's nothing to pick between any of the 4 teams and all have too similar fixtures to predict anything. I'm just ready for a new season now, either way.

 

The Premier League has been awful this season, as low a standard across the 20 teams as when we won the league.

Edited 2 May 2023 by wardyfox86

[South Shire Fox]

 3 games unbeaten now, 3 games we’d of lost under Rodgers or his puppets Stowell and Sadler. Its not over yet

Edited 2 May 2023 by South Shire Fox

[jerry]

34 minutes ago, wardyfox86 said:

I'd spent the last month trying to decipher where each team will pick up the required points, but I'm done with it now.

 

We could stay up without picking up another point, we could go down picking up 4.

 

There's nothing to pick between any of the 4 teams and all have too similar fixtures to predict anything. I'm just ready for a new season now, either way.

 

The Premier League has been awful this season, as low standard across the 20 teams since when we won the league.

Believe the two points dropped putting us on 32 with good goal difference would possibly have been enough. Interesting to see at seasons end.

[MalletFox]

4 hours ago, Eskay said:

You can't do that calculation based on 4 games. He's played 2 relegation rivals in that time and should have had more points. BRs cal is based on every team in this league once plus others twice who are miles ahead. Add Newcastle Brighton arsenal to Deans calculation and it drops massively. 

Fair comment, in some regards. Excluding the current Top 8, BR’s numbers are …

 

Brentford 2pts (2 games)

Fulham 0pts (1 game)

Palace 1pt (2 games)

Chelsea 0pts (2 games)

Bournemouth 0pts (1 game)

Wolves 3pts (1 game)

West Ham 3pts (1 game)

Leeds 3pts (1 game)

Forest 3pts (2 games)

Everton 3pts (1 game)

Southampton 0pts (2 games)

 

Total = 18pts in 16 games, 1.13pts p/game

 

At that run rate, he picks up 28pts against the ‘bottom 12’. Still pretty appalling really!

[wardyfox86]

33 minutes ago, jerry said:

Believe the two points dropped putting us on 32 with good goal difference would possibly have been enough. Interesting to see at seasons end.

Absolutely, but picking up the point whilst denying them an extra 2 (same with Leeds) could be the difference between us and those teams staying up.

[foxinsocks]

Look at the performances from soyucu and Iverson... both ignored for a year by the excellent manager brendan rodgers.

If they had played this season we would not be in this mess.

[Fear Of The Fox]

Is it just me that has the surviving relegation line at 34pts (or even at 33pts in our case with a better GD)? Unless some teams decide to go for early holidays and give away games, I can't see how all these dreadful teams in the relegation battle (including us) can manage to collect 4-6 points from the remaining fixtures. They don't even face each other except the Forest vs Southampton game. 

Even if this happens and everyone suddenly starts earning points then West Ham will also be in serious trouble.Their remaining fixtures are awful and they have the european games in between. 

 

[Gerard]

10 minutes ago, Fear Of The Fox said:

Is it just me that has the surviving relegation line at 34pts (or even at 33pts in our case with a better GD)? Unless some teams decide to go for early holidays and give away games, I can't see how all these dreadful teams in the relegation battle (including us) can manage to collect 4-6 points from the remaining fixtures. They don't even face each other except the Forest vs Southampton game. 

Even if this happens and everyone suddenly starts earning points then West Ham will also be in serious trouble.Their remaining fixtures are awful and they have the european games in between. 

 

 

Apparently we'll struggle to get another point but it's a shoo in that Everton will beat Wolves (a) & Bournemouth (h) and Forest will beat Southampton (h) & Palace (a).

 

We have no chance against a depleted and nothing to play for Fulham (a) & a West Ham (h) that have been playing twice a week forever and possibly face us when they weren't safe to the previous match at home to Leeds.

[st albans fox]

10 minutes ago, Fear Of The Fox said:

Is it just me that has the surviving relegation line at 34pts (or even at 33pts in our case with a better GD)? Unless some teams decide to go for early holidays and give away games, I can't see how all these dreadful teams in the relegation battle (including us) can manage to collect 4-6 points from the remaining fixtures. They don't even face each other except the Forest vs Southampton game. 

Even if this happens and everyone suddenly starts earning points then West Ham will also be in serious trouble.Their remaining fixtures are awful and they have the european games in between. 

 

There are three sides on 30 points 

you’d be brave to assume that given the scenario they find themselves in that they won’t take an average of a point per game - prob a win, a draw and 2 defeats 

I think Everton’s fate is dependant on their result at molineux. I expect them to beat Bournemouth last game. 2 wins may be enough for them. 
 

our job is to match the other teams results out to the end of the season. (Yes I know thats obvious) 

 

gonna be a v long month ……

 

 

[fazzyfox]

When I apply a pessimistic (for us) outcome generator over the other clubs results the same figure keeps coming up - 36 points, we'd need 36 points and hopefully maintain a reasonably similar GD to now (ie don't concede 4 v Liverpool & 6 at Newcastle). You have to think any of them can win their final game and then they each have at least one other they could win although for Leeds I see that as away to West Ham which is tough, Forest could beat Southampton and Palace (albeit away and Forest don't do "away"). Even if we convince ourselves we'll beat West Ham we could need 3 more, Fulham away or 3 draws? 

We could do with West Ham not needing anything by the last day but fixtures V Man City, Man Utd and Brentford mean that Leeds game could be pivotal in that happening. 

[smudgerfox]

15 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Apparently we'll struggle to get another point but it's a shoo in that Everton will beat Wolves (a) & Bournemouth (h) and Forest will beat Southampton (h) & Palace (a).

 

We have no chance against a depleted and nothing to play for Fulham (a) & a West Ham (h) that have been playing twice a week forever and possibly face us when they weren't safe to the previous match at home to Leeds.

There is no logical reason to suppose this team can do what is required …as last night proved. you can essentially gift them the chance to take 3 points and they’re far from guaranteed to take it. If Vardy scores the one on one and Maddison scores the penalty - irrespective of all our shortcomings- it’s pretty much game over. But we miss these open goals and it takes a world class goalkeeping performance to retain one point, never mind 3.  
 

I’m not saying we can’t stay up but our best chance by far was  to rack up some points in this “winnable” run of games to avoid being exposed to high wire pressure in the final stretch. Now the team must show a discipline, a work rate, a fitness level and a team spirit and resilience they haven’t shown in 2 years

[melvinmmelvin]

26 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

gonna be a v long month ……

 

 

And here come Leeds with the 'new manager bounce' just at the right (i.e. wrong) time.

 

If Foxes lose a few games on the trot, as is possible with the up-coming opposition, all the other *****s need is one measly point: law of averages?

[Pliskin]

2 hours ago, wardyfox86 said:

I'd spent the last month trying to decipher where each team will pick up the required points, but I'm done with it now.

 

We could stay up without picking up another point, we could go down picking up 4.

 

There's nothing to pick between any of the 4 teams and all have too similar fixtures to predict anything. I'm just ready for a new season now, either way.

 

The Premier League has been awful this season, as low standard across the 20 teams since when we won the league.

The standard of the league has been appalling this season. There’s one outstanding team, one above average team, one average team and one team better than the rest. 
 

Outside of the top four Liverpool are inconsistent and Brighton fairly steady. Everyone else is shit. 

[hejammy]

1 minute ago, melvinmmelvin said:

And here come Leeds with the 'new manager bounce' just at the right (i.e. wrong) time.

 

If Foxes lose a few games on the trot, as is possible with the up-coming opposition, all the other *****s need is one measly point: law of averages?

Lol I had to read that last line a few times - even though it's the most classic case of "writing the bloody obvious" - such a moot point - obviously we can lose a few on the trot - as can all the teams around us. 

[Pliskin]

1 minute ago, melvinmmelvin said:

And here come Leeds with the 'new manager bounce' just at the right (i.e. wrong) time.

 

If Foxes lose a few games on the trot, as is possible with the up-coming opposition, all the other *****s need is one measly point: law of averages?

Leeds will not be getting a new manager bounce. They’ve almost certainly confined themselves to relegation. 
 

What on earth will Sam do in four games? Two of which are un winnable. 

[Fear Of The Fox]

35 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

There are three sides on 30 points 

you’d be brave to assume that given the scenario they find themselves in that they won’t take an average of a point per game - prob a win, a draw and 2 defeats 

I think Everton’s fate is dependant on their result at molineux. I expect them to beat Bournemouth last game. 2 wins may be enough for them. 
 

our job is to match the other teams results out to the end of the season. (Yes I know thats obvious) 

 

gonna be a v long month ……

 

 

As I mentioned, the current form of all these teams is so awful I don't see them getting more that 1ppg average unless all other teams go on proper holiday mode. This means 34pts max for all of them. 

If they all go on holiday mode the required points might go up to 37-39 for everyone. If this happens even Wolves are not safe. Wait, even Bournemouth can't be complacent with their GD. 

[ithuriel]

Personally think 36 points will be enough to stay up, wonder if we can drag out a win and three draws , we may be terrible this season but we sit on top of three other awful teams at present.

Edited 2 May 2023 by ithuriel

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, Fear Of The Fox said:

As I mentioned, the current form of all these teams is so awful I don't see them getting more that 1ppg average unless all other teams go on proper holiday mode. This means 34pts max for all of them. 

If they all go on holiday mode the required points might go up to 37-39 for everyone. If this happens even Wolves are not safe. Wait, even Bournemouth can't be complacent with their GD. 

This weekend sees us playing the only team possibly on the beach 

GW 36 sees forest playing Chelsea 

GW 37 sees Everton playing wolves 

GW 38 probably sees all teams playing teams on the beach 

 

so extremely unlikely that any of the four teams will get past 36 points 

[wardyfox86]

18 minutes ago, smudgerfox said:

There is no logical reason to suppose this team can do what is required …as last night proved. you can essentially gift them the chance to take 3 points and they’re far from guaranteed to take it. If Vardy scores the one on one and Maddison scores the penalty - irrespective of all our shortcomings- it’s pretty much game over. But we miss these open goals and it takes a world class goalkeeping performance to retain one point, never mind 3.  
 

I’m not saying we can’t stay up but our best chance by far was  to rack up some points in this “winnable” run of games to avoid being exposed to high wire pressure in the final stretch. Now the team must show a discipline, a work rate, a fitness level and a team spirit and resilience they haven’t shown in 2 years

But you speak as if those around us haven't thrown away games and been as poor as us. The DCL chance, the Bamford chance are examples of other teams not taking their opportunities against the teams around them, now finding themselves needing points in the tougher run-in.

 

Those around us aren't better than us, they're probably not worse but they seem to be getting built up in this thread to be something they're not. We are all fully capable of losing every game in the run-in and we survive on GD.

[Supergray22]

No one knows for sure. 4 more points could likely do it given our goal difference.

[Gerard]

12 minutes ago, Supergray22 said:

No one knows for sure. 4 more points could likely do it given our goal difference.

 

4pts mean Forest and Leeds need two wins or one win and two draws out their last four to overtake us.

It means Everton need two wins or to go unbeaten the rest of the season and winning one to overtake us.

 

Let me tell everyone what will happen when we play Fulham. We're actually the favourites in that match and on Betfair an implied 37.5% chance of winning and an implied 65% chance of getting at least a point. Fans of Leeds, Forest and Everton will be panicking that we don't win that because if we do it looks like only one them can survive. It will be worse for them than the Bournemouth vs Leeds match last week was for us.

Edited 2 May 2023 by Gerard