Relegation

[Matt]

Amazes me people are willing to give until [insert date/month]...

 

He's way overdue his sell by date.

 

He should have gone at the end of last season and that would have been overdue.

[Ric Flair]

10 hours ago, Sly said:

Okay, some contrast on teams with 1 (or less) point after 4 games during the past 10 seasons. 
 

22/23

Leicester - TBC! 

 

21/22

Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley - 2 relegated.
 

All three changed Manager during the season. 
 

36 points to stay up. 

 

20/21

Fulham, Sheffield U, Burnley, WBA - 3 relegated (all finished bottom 4).

Two changed Manager during the season.

29 points to stay up.

 

19/20

Watford - Relegated

 

Changed Manager 3 times during the season. 

35 points to stay up.

 

18/19

West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle - None relegated

 

None changed Manager. 

 

35 points to stay up.

 

17/18

Bournemouth and Crystal Palace - None relegated

 

Neither changed Manager. 

 

34 points to stay up. 

 

16/17

Sunderland and Stoke - 1 relegated. 
 

Neither changed coach. 
 

35 points to stay up. 

 

15/16

None

 

38 points to stay up.

 

14/15

None

 

36 points to stay up.

 

13/14

Sunderland - Didn’t get relegated. 
 

Changed Manager. 
 

34 points to stay up.

 

12/13

Southampton and Reading - One relegated. 
 

Both changed Manager. 
 

37 points to stay up.

 

Over the 10 years

Mean average points to stay up - 34.9 points.

 

So we need another 34 points. That’s 11 wins. So we now need to win 33% of games, or 1 in 3. 

Incidentally that's the exact win % of Rodgers in 2022 but we are getting progressively worse. This could get scary.

[Ric Flair]

56 minutes ago, adejo92 said:

 

 

[1] Kasper leaving - Whilst parts of his game were questionable, there's no doubt he was a massive part of the changing room and was the only player i could actually imagine gripping the current squad by the balls with performances like those thus far. There's absolutely no way him leaving came as a surprise to the club, and the naivety of thinking we can just promote Ward to fill his place has cost us.

 

[2] Fofana leaving - Again, call him everything from a Pig to a Dog, but he was a vital part of creating a solid, consistent defense and would only get better. Other than literally keeping him hostage, this is just the cruelty of football and i don't think anyone is really to blame as even if he stays, his heart won't be in it.

 

[3] Tielemans Saga - Whilst i don't think he played as bad against Chelsea as some will make out, there's no doubt his performances have declined hugely over the last few months and the on going transfer speculation won't have helped. A vital part of a midfield missing and with it, number of chances created.

 

[4] The Vardy Decline - He's only playing through sentiment. If you pick a team on current form / ability, he'd be no where near the Premier League. Lack of service is partly to blame but there's also an evident decline in his goal scoring instinct & ability, as well as fitness and speed which is to be expected from someone of his age. He's missing chances now that most other PL strikers would put away and this is costing us just as much as the defensive errors but less is said because its Vardy.

 

I think the above contribute massively to the position we find ourselves in before we even begin to look at Rodgers and players like Daka and Soumare who wouldn't stand out in the Sunday league.

Tielemans played badly vs Chelsea? AY??????

 

Vardy finished last season obscenely, in fact all of last season his goals to games ratio was ridiculous, all from open play too. This season is a worry so far, but we've seen this many times from him before.

[Hamilton Fox]

1 hour ago, adejo92 said:

 

 

[1] Kasper leaving - Whilst parts of his game were questionable, there's no doubt he was a massive part of the changing room and was the only player i could actually imagine gripping the current squad by the balls with performances like those thus far. There's absolutely no way him leaving came as a surprise to the club, and the naivety of thinking we can just promote Ward to fill his place has cost us.

 

[2] Fofana leaving - Again, call him everything from a Pig to a Dog, but he was a vital part of creating a solid, consistent defense and would only get better. Other than literally keeping him hostage, this is just the cruelty of football and i don't think anyone is really to blame as even if he stays, his heart won't be in it.

 

[3] Tielemans Saga - Whilst i don't think he played as bad against Chelsea as some will make out, there's no doubt his performances have declined hugely over the last few months and the on going transfer speculation won't have helped. A vital part of a midfield missing and with it, number of chances created.

 

[4] The Vardy Decline - He's only playing through sentiment. If you pick a team on current form / ability, he'd be no where near the Premier League. Lack of service is partly to blame but there's also an evident decline in his goal scoring instinct & ability, as well as fitness and speed which is to be expected from someone of his age. He's missing chances now that most other PL strikers would put away and this is costing us just as much as the defensive errors but less is said because its Vardy.

 

I think the above contribute massively to the position we find ourselves in before we even begin to look at Rodgers and players like Daka and Soumare who wouldn't stand out in the Sunday league.

And all apart from vardy (as he is going to be here) you could say keep them for another season and your pretty much not going to get relegated. Can’t say the same if vardys the only one left

[The_77]

1 hour ago, adejo92 said:

 

 

[1] Kasper leaving - Whilst parts of his game were questionable, there's no doubt he was a massive part of the changing room and was the only player i could actually imagine gripping the current squad by the balls with performances like those thus far. There's absolutely no way him leaving came as a surprise to the club, and the naivety of thinking we can just promote Ward to fill his place has cost us.

 

[2] Fofana leaving - Again, call him everything from a Pig to a Dog, but he was a vital part of creating a solid, consistent defense and would only get better. Other than literally keeping him hostage, this is just the cruelty of football and i don't think anyone is really to blame as even if he stays, his heart won't be in it.

 

[3] Tielemans Saga - Whilst i don't think he played as bad against Chelsea as some will make out, there's no doubt his performances have declined hugely over the last few months and the on going transfer speculation won't have helped. A vital part of a midfield missing and with it, number of chances created.

 

[4] The Vardy Decline - He's only playing through sentiment. If you pick a team on current form / ability, he'd be no where near the Premier League. Lack of service is partly to blame but there's also an evident decline in his goal scoring instinct & ability, as well as fitness and speed which is to be expected from someone of his age. He's missing chances now that most other PL strikers would put away and this is costing us just as much as the defensive errors but less is said because its Vardy.

 

I think the above contribute massively to the position we find ourselves in before we even begin to look at Rodgers and players like Daka and Soumare who wouldn't stand out in the Sunday league.

Vardy had a phenomenal year last year when he was healthy and outscored Harry Kane while playing far fewer minutes and not scoring any penalties. 
 

Aside from Saturday, he hasn’t gotten much service. This season is still a small sample size and I think we’re a bit jaded by just how ridiculous Vardy has been at converting chances. His goals will come and he deserves his spot in the lineup. 

Edited 29 August 2022 by The_77
Typo

[Number 6]

10 hours ago, Sly said:

So we need another 34 points. That’s 11 wins. So we now need to win 33% of games, or 1 in 3. 

Could go WDDLL for the rest of the season and get 34 points. Win % of 20%. Not that wer want it to be so close.

 

Whilst I know we won't win all of these, and we've looked awful so far with good home games, we still have Bournemouth, Forest, Fulham, Everton, Leeds, Palace, Wolves, Villa to play at home. 

[adejo92]

6 minutes ago, The_77 said:

Vardy had a phenomenal year last year when he was healthy and outscored Harry Kane while playing far fewer minutes and not scoring any penalties. 
 

Aside from Saturday, he hasn’t gotten much service. This season is still a small sample size and I think we’re a bit jaded by just how ridiculous Vardy has been at converting chances. His goals will come and he deserves his spot in the lineup. 

He did have a good year last year, your right, but that's little use to us planted at the bottom of the league.

 

He's not getting enough service, granted, but the service he is getting he isn't taking advantage of. If it wasn't Vardy on the back of the shirt, we'd be crying out for him to be dropped.

 

I get what your saying though, he deserves to play because he's always capable of 'that goal' but we are 4 games in now and 'that goal' should have come a few times now but hasn't. Missed chances up top are costing us just as much as mistakes at the back.

 

The decline of Vardy is well In progress and Daka isn't the answer.

[Chrysalis]

34 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Tielemans played badly vs Chelsea? AY??????

 

Vardy finished last season obscenely, in fact all of last season his goals to games ratio was ridiculous, all from open play too. This season is a worry so far, but we've seen this many times from him before.

I find it hard to criticise players at the moment, as we need a competent manager in place first and foremost, the players are likely affected by whats going on and bad strategy.

Edited 29 August 2022 by Chrysalis

[CrispinLA in Texas]

Just now, Chrysalis said:

I find it hard to criticise players at the moment, as we need a competent manager in place first and foremost, the players are likely affected by whats going on and bad strategy.

Players were brilliant in the Brentford match.......all it need was for the manager to do his part. Brendan failed miserably.....now no wonder the players have given up.

It takes two to tango. 

[The_77]

13 minutes ago, adejo92 said:

He did have a good year last year, your right, but that's little use to us planted at the bottom of the league.

 

He's not getting enough service, granted, but the service he is getting he isn't taking advantage of. If it wasn't Vardy on the back of the shirt, we'd be crying out for him to be dropped.

 

I get what your saying though, he deserves to play because he's always capable of 'that goal' but we are 4 games in now and 'that goal' should have come a few times now but hasn't. Missed chances up top are costing us just as much as mistakes at the back.

 

The decline of Vardy is well In progress and Daka isn't the answer.

That time will come but I think it’s way too early to declare a decline, let alone one that’s well in progress. 
 

His xG for this season is a whopping 0.9 to 1.11 depending on where you look. I know that stat should be taken with a grain of salt but it does show that we’re not setting up chances for him and he’s not missing sitters every game.
 

We have a team that can’t create chances, we don’t have a striker in Vardy who can’t convert them. Vardy isn’t the problem here. 

[The_77]

3 minutes ago, The_77 said:

That time will come but I think it’s way too early to declare a decline, let alone one that’s well in progress. 
 

His xG for this season is a whopping 0.9 to 1.11 depending on where you look. I know that stat should be taken with a grain of salt but it does show that we’re not setting up chances for him and he’s not missing sitters every game.
 

We have a team that can’t create chances, we don’t have a striker in Vardy who can’t convert them. Vardy isn’t the problem here. 

Vardy is also averaging 1.3 shots per game so far. He’s not getting the chances to score, that’s what needs to change. 

[Sampson]

Yeah, it's way too early to write off Vardy based on one game. He was brilliant last season and we missed him desperately when he was injured. Missed one or two he usually would score, but the fact he got into those positions still is a plus, his pace will go as he ages, as may his movement, but his finishing and composure is one thing I can't see going as he ages (reminds me of Kevin Phillips when he was here at 40, legs had gone and couldn't play much, but he could clearly still finish if it was given to him in the area), it was just a bad spell at the office in terms of finishing. He's had much longer dry spells and come back before, if he wasn't getting into those kind of one-on-one positions, it would be a much bigger worry. I don't think his actual finishing ability is likely to drop of a cliff like his pace or movement might though.

 

I was plenty critical of Tielemans last season, but he was excellent on Saturday. If he keeps playing like that, he'll create plenty this season. 

Edited 29 August 2022 by Sampson

[The_77]

3 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Yeah, it's way too early to write off Vardy based on one game. He was brilliant last season and we missed him desperately when he was injured. Missed one or two he usually would score, but the fact he got into those positions still is a plus, his pace will go as he ages, as may his movement, but his finishing and composure is one thing I can't see going as he ages (reminds me of Kevin Phillips when he was here at 40, legs had gone and couldn't play much, but he could clearly still finish if it was given to him in the area), it was just a bad spell at the office in terms of finishing. He's had much longer dry spells and come back before, if he wasn't getting into those kind of one-on-one positions, it would be a much bigger worry. I don't think his actual finishing ability is likely to drop of a cliff like his pace or movement might though.

 

I was plenty critical of Tielemans last season, but he was excellent on Saturday. If he keeps playing like that, he'll create plenty this season. 

Agree with all of this. Vardy also picked up an assist on a bad day out. 

[Dames]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Tielemans played badly vs Chelsea? AY??????

 

Vardy finished last season obscenely, in fact all of last season his goals to games ratio was ridiculous, all from open play too. This season is a worry so far, but we've seen this many times from him before.

I’m at the point with Vardy where there is no point in writing him off or even thinking about it because when you do he proves you wrong.

[PAPA LAZAROU]

Ok , lets look at our past god awful manger incumberants. You know Pleat ,Taylor. ect . was anyone in cluding our own fans predicting relegation after only four matches?  so once you've thought about that ask why under this " elite " manager we now have a topic on it. That says it all to me.

Edited 29 August 2022 by PAPA LAZAROU

[when_you're_smiling]

20 minutes ago, PAPA LAZAROU said:

Ok , lets look at our past god awful manger incumberants. You know Pleat ,Taylor. ect . was anyone in cluding our own fans predicting relegation after only four matches?  so once you've thought about that ask why under this " elite " manager we now have a topic on it. That says it all to me.

Yes. With Taylor we lost 5-0 to newly promoted Bolton at home on the first game of the season after going on a losing streak (14 games?) at the end of the previous season after the Wycombe loss. We pretty much knew we were in trouble after one game if we didn’t know it before.

 

I’m not old enough to remember Pleat, but that was the second division. 

[Product of 84]

4 hours ago, taupe said:

It's Veste time! I knew it'd come!

 

No, in all seriousness, it is an option if we want to change style for whatever reason.

Thanks for quoting me. But no I wasn't calling for Veste or a change in system. I was just pointing out that if relegation is on the cards and we appoint a manager to keep us up that they'd change the system to incorporate a deeper defensive line. Which would suit Veste better than the system we currently play.

 

I'm hopeful first that Brendon will turn it around or that our next appointment builds on the work of Puel and Brendon and isn't a step back to defending deep and surviving. 

[PAPA LAZAROU]

13 minutes ago, when_you're_smiling said:

Yes. With Taylor we lost 5-0 to newly promoted Bolton at home on the first game of the season after going on a losing streak (14 games?) at the end of the previous season after the Wycombe loss. We pretty much knew we were in trouble after one game if we didn’t know it before.

 

I’m not old enough to remember Pleat, but that was the second division. 

Thanks for that. so we are seeing that same dejavu scenario then.

[iancognito]

Any side is two poor transfer windows away from relegation. It can happen to literally anyone, there's no such thing as being an established Premier League side and if you don't keep freshening your side, you will go backwards.

We had a summer where we bought Bertrand, Big Jan and Soumare and then a summer where we bought no-one, sold the captain and the one player who did okay for us - Lookman - is allowed to join another club on loan.

 

The points gap isn't huge, the teams above aren't consistent enough to pull away but we've already dropped points to two sides expected to struggle. Even if we aren't in the bottom 3, getting away from it will be difficult with a manager not known for building resilient sides.

[J. James]

4 hours ago, norwichfox said:

We have to go some to reach the lows of our Great Escape year 2014/15 - first 5 games W 2, D 2, L1 - 5th game MU at home famously 5-3 then only drew 2 out of 13 all others lost. Co-incidentaly MU at home for the 5th game again on Thursday...it's imperative we win that 5-3...

We sure do in fact we need to - go back in time, beat soton, chelsea or arsenal draw with one of them then beat manure next game - about as likely as avoiding the drop with Rodgers in charge!

[taupe]

14 minutes ago, Product of 84 said:

Thanks for quoting me. But no I wasn't calling for Veste or a change in system. I was just pointing out that if relegation is on the cards and we appoint a manager to keep us up that they'd change the system to incorporate a deeper defensive line.

And I said "for whatever reason"! So potential relegation, new manager and change of system falls under that.

 

S'ok, I didn't mean to suggest that you were calling to start Veste.

 

[The_Rorab]

Other than our awful form and being bottom of the league, I think a lot of the pessimism stems from the fact that the club as a whole feels like there's no clear direction or plan going on.

 

Firstly you have the obvious, the poor management by Rodgers in game, the bizarre player selections and players frozen out of the squad and dodgy tactical choices. The inability to cut out set piece goals to a farcical level last season and the hideous soundbites Rodgers comes out with.

 

The fact that for almost a year, maybe more we've, from the eye test been pretty poor, and statistically have been one of the worst teams in the league despite our finish last season.

 

The players themselves, we have Fofana throwing the biggest tantrum possible to leave, Tielemans just being here for 2 straight years if he stays not moving and not signing a new contract, and the spineless performances we've put out when under any pressure. 

 

Then behind the scenes, the inability to bring any players in but also the seeming inability to move on any players either. There were rumours a way back that we'd rejected an offer for Vestergaard for example, which if true is insane. Then the huge wages we've doled out to players who aren't good enough that we're unable to shift and the awful recruitment last summer of which we're supposedly trying to ship over half of the players one year on. Maddison only having 2 years left on his current deal, we're in Tielemans territory there and need to tie him down.

 

The constant stream of injuries we seem to incur, Ricardo out again, Barnes missing the first few games, Maddison out last time - lighter than previous seasons so far but still always building in the background.

 

There's the weirdness of the set piece coach who couldn't come in quickly because of work permit who's just gone quiet news-wise, the fact we signed a new head of recruitment who only starts after the window shuts, the new guy supposed to be in charge of the academy who apparently left not months into his stint here.

 

Some look to the academy for good news whilst we're struggling, but there's been no sign any promising player will get any sniff of a chance and our loans seem to not really be on point largely - we've a few players unlikely to get chances in the first team but seemingly also unlikely to be loaned out, and of those loaned out, only one of the youngsters seems to even be playing much. Callum Wright saying last season that he'd had basically zero contact with the club whilst out on loan.

 

Meanwhile every day that passes seems identical to every other one with no movement, no action, just a bubbling and building frustration with the lack of any seeming plan to get us out of this malaise. Fans strongly wanting Rodgers out, rumours that we can't afford it, rumours of Top and King Power not having the money/wanting to invest anymore etc etc

 

The funny thing is as well I'm probably missing other things as well that I could bring up, but there's already a lot.

 

I'm not saying we're in an unsalvageable position by any stretch. I'm not saying we're getting relegated after 4 games of the season, but I can absolutely understand why people think it's likely - we seem to have no stability or leadership throughout all aspects of the club at the moment with so many things making little sense and with no concrete news on rectifying any of them. It feels a bit like we're in freefall and I really hope someone steps up to arrest the rot because I do reckon we fit the profile of a club that could be relegated if we're not careful.

 

At the end of the day it doesn't matter how good individual players we have, time and time again we've seen clubs lauded as too big to go down, go down when they should on paper stay up.

 

I don't mean to fatalise, there are things I'm sure we're doing well, and I'm hopeful things are in motion behind the scenes - hopefully I'll look back on this later in the season and laugh at how pessimistic I was, but right now, it definitely seems like it'll be a struggle.

Edited 29 August 2022 by The_Rorab

[Sampson]

Southampton even spending big now without selling anyone after they got some investment in. If they get this Gakpo in from PSV they'll have spent over £100mil this summer without selling anyone. Just shows how easy it is for us to start to fall behind.

[Beachyboy]

8 minutes ago, The_Rorab said:

Other than our awful form and being bottom of the league, I think a lot of the pessimism stems from the fact that the club as a whole feels like there's no clear direction or plan going on.

 

Firstly you have the obvious, the poor management by Rodgers in game, the bizarre player selections and players frozen out of the squad and dodgy tactical choices. The inability to cut out set piece goals to a farcical level last season and the hideous soundbites Rodgers comes out with.

 

The fact that for almost a year, maybe more we've, from the eye test been pretty poor, and statistically have been one of the worst teams in the league despite our finish last season.

 

The players themselves, we have Fofana throwing the biggest tantrum possible to leave, Tielemans just being here for 2 straight years if he stays not moving and not signing a new contract, and the spineless performances we've put out when under any pressure. 

 

Then behind the scenes, the inability to bring any players in but also the seeming inability to move on any players either. There were rumours a way back that we'd rejected an offer for Vestergaard for example, which if true is insane. Then the huge wages we've doled out to players who aren't good enough that we're unable to shift and the awful recruitment last summer of which we're supposedly trying to ship over half of the players one year on. Maddison only having 2 years left on his current deal, we're in Tielemans territory there and need to tie him down.

 

The constant stream of injuries we seem to incur, Ricardo out again, Barnes missing the first few games, Maddison out last time - lighter than previous seasons so far but still always building in the background.

 

There's the weirdness of the set piece coach who couldn't come in quickly because of work permit who's just gone quiet news-wise, the fact we signed a new head of recruitment who only starts after the window shuts, the new guy supposed to be in charge of the academy who apparently left not months into his stint here.

 

Some look to the academy for good news whilst we're struggling, but there's been no sign any promising player will get any sniff of a chance and our loans seem to not really be on point largely - we've a few players unlikely to get chances in the first team but seemingly also unlikely to be loaned out, and of those loaned out, only one of the youngsters seems to even be playing much. Callum Wright saying last season that he'd had basically zero contact with the club whilst out on loan.

 

Meanwhile every day that passes seems identical to every other one with no movement, no action, just a bubbling and building frustration with the lack of any seeming plan to get us out of this malaise. Fans strongly wanting Rodgers out, rumours that we can't afford it, rumours of Top and King Power not having the money/wanting to invest anymore etc etc

 

The funny thing is as well I'm probably missing other things as well that I could bring up, but there's already a lot.

 

I'm not saying we're in an unsalvageable position by any stretch. I'm not saying we're getting relegated after 4 games of the season, but I can absolutely understand why people think it's likely - we seem to have no stability or leadership throughout all aspects of the club at the moment with so many things making little sense and with no concrete news on rectifying any of them. It feels a bit like we're in freefall and I really hope someone steps up to arrest the rot because I do reckon we fit the profile of a club that could be relegated if we're not careful.

 

At the end of the day it doesn't matter how good individual players we have, time and time again we've seen clubs lauded as too big to go down, go down when they should on paper stay up.

 

I don't mean to fatalise, there are things I'm sure we're doing well, and I'm hopeful things are in motion behind the scenes - hopefully I'll look back on this later in the season and laugh at how pessimistic I was, but right now, it definitely seems like it'll be a struggle.

Long old post only optimism, I can offer is with 9 games to go in 2015 would you have said we'd of won the league, the FA cup finished 5th twice, an assembled the team that we have within 6 years. I think if the owners are to be sure on sacking Rogers, they also wanna be sure on who the replacement is. As I can't imagine we have many players going to the world cup action will happen in the next couple months one way or the other, sooner if we start getting cut adrift, an the mid season break will give the new coach plenty of opportunities to access before the January window. We may well finish 13th or 14th but I think we'll have enough to stay up, it's just unfortunate that's this season has been allowed to be written off before it's began.

[Area88]

Are we the next Leeds Utd? Massive over investment in players and then drop out of the Premier League due to spiralling debts and huge wage bills?