Relegation

[Hammo]

There are nine possible outcome combinations of Leicester’s and Everton’s games on Sunday, and only two of them keep us up. That gives us, theoretically at least, a 22.22% chance of staying up.

 

I go to the game therefore fully expecting the worst… but hoping for the best.

 

Whatever happens, it will be an assault on the nervous system… and a relief when it is all over.

[SouthStandUpperTier]

1 minute ago, Hammo said:

There are nine possible outcome combinations of Leicester’s and Everton’s games on Sunday, and only two of them keep us up. That gives us, theoretically at least, a 22.22% chance of staying up.

 

I go to the game therefore fully expecting the worst… but hoping for the best.

 

Whatever happens, it will be an assault on the nervous system… and a relief when it is all over.

That's assuming all possible outcomes have an equal probability of happening, which isn't the case.

[smallpauldj]

Everton have lost their last 4 games to Bournemouth conceding at least 3 each time. Its the hope that kills you. 

[Lako42]

1 minute ago, smallpauldj said:

Everton have lost their last 4 games to Bournemouth conceding at least 3 each time. Its the hope that kills you. 

Were any of them last game of the season with safety already assured?

[dmayne7]

2 hours ago, StriderHiryu said:

If we go down, do you think there will be sweeping changes? You'd like to think there will be big changes regardless of what happens, but who knows?

 

This whole season is so odd, even Vardy saying the season has been strange and there are things he can't talk about... 

 

IMO the entire operation feels like it's missing a leader, with people just going through the motions doing what they think is right, but not really knowing. Without Vichai it seems like we have no direction. 

This is the big issue. I don't see it but that's of course very much an outside looking in viewpoint.

 

Unless those changes happen then what's the point in staying up because we'd just go down next season and have wasted another year trying to reverse the trajectory of the club? I think if those big changes are made (Rudkin moved out of his current role, recruitment revamped and given more autonomy, same for the medical, fitness, strength and conditioning team) then we'll still have enough good players left to rebuild without a big threat of relegation, and get us back into a position where we can challenge for Europe. But failure to do so means we'll lose our better players and not have the structure to replace them or plan ahead.

[SouthStandUpperTier]

1 minute ago, smallpauldj said:

Everton have lost their last 4 games to Bournemouth conceding at least 3 each time. Its the hope that kills you. 

Only the 2 earlier in the season have any sort of relevance really, and they were when Lampard was horribly mismanaging Everton.

[Hammo]

2 minutes ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

That's assuming all possible outcomes have an equal probability of happening, which isn't the case.

I’m fully aware of that… but more than happy for you to come back with a detailed, non-subjective probability analysis of all nine outcomes!

I’d still put our chances of staying up at around the 22% mark.

[SouthStandUpperTier]

1 minute ago, Hammo said:

I’m fully aware of that… but more than happy for you to come back with a detailed, non-subjective probability analysis of all nine outcomes!

I’d still put our chances of staying up at around the 22% mark.

I can't be arsed tbh. But I think some boffin has calculated it to be around the 18% mark.

[sacreblueits442]

3 hours ago, Gubbins said:

Everton are just as terrible as we are. Every chance they fail to beat Bournemouth especially if DCL is out injured as usual. The problem is that I don't see us getting the result we need. If West Ham decide to put even the minimum amount of effort into getting a win, combined with the inherent pressure and bottling nature of our cowardly squad we will blow it.

....even though it was a big point to take away from Newcastle, an even bigger one was the way the players worked for each other!!!

  That is the takeaway from last night's game, it will be worth so much in the long run.

[LCGraphix]

Been saying to family since Jan, it will all come down to the final day, all be it we'll score to stay up and put Forest down but that dreams gone. Heart is despertae to survive but my heads known we have gone for a while now

[Stinkenzo]

Everything people say Everton have going in to their favour on the final day (except the 2pt headstart, obvs) can be said about our own advantage over West Ham. I don't really expect them to make 11 changes but they're not gonna be going in to risky 50/50s with the cup final on the horizon. The pressure is on Everton

[KrefelderFox666]

1 hour ago, lee7 said:

I think Everton will draw with Bournemouth and we'll lose at home to West Ham after being too cautious all match.

 

We have to take risks in this next match. 

We have to go for the win, no way will we sit back. All out attack and if we concede, we will aim to outscore them. 4-2 win.

[Benguin]

55 minutes ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

That's assuming all possible outcomes have an equal probability of happening, which isn't the case.

I’d put as this:
 

Everton lose - 10%
Everton Draw - 30% 

Everton Win - 60% 

 

Leicester Win - 40%
Leicester Draw - 20%
Leicester lose - 40%
 

As a Leicester win is needed there is a 40% chance of Everton result keeping us up. Of the results at Everton that would keep us up, the probability would be 40% to go in our favour. 
 

therefore we can times them to forget to get probability of staying up:

 

2/5 our game goes how we need it to

2/5 their game goes how we need it

 

4/25 chance which becomes 16%

 

 

 

 

Edited 23 May 2023 by Benguin

[lee7]

12 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

We have to go for the win, no way will we sit back. All out attack and if we concede, we will aim to outscore them. 4-2 win.

I really hope so but nothing would surprise me. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked if we went defensive for 50-55 minutes similar to how we played against Newcastle and then threw everything at them for the last 35 minutes. 

[Aus Fox]

5 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I’d put as this:
 

Everton lose - 10%
Everton Draw - 30% 

Everton Win - 60% 

 

Leicester Win - 40%
Leicester Draw - 20%
Leicester lose - 40%
 

As a Leicester win is needed there is a 40% chance of Everton result keeping us up. Of the results at Everton that would keep us up, the probability would be 40% to go in our favour. 
 

therefore we can times them to forget to get probability of staying up:

 

2/5 our game goes how we need it to

2/5 their game goes how we need it

 

4/25 chance which becomes 16%

 

 

 

 

Out of interest where did you pull those figure from?

How are Bournemouth only a 1 in 10 chance of beating Bournemouth?

 

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Out of interest where did you pull those figure from?

How are Bournemouth only a 1 in 10 chance of beating Bournemouth?

 

that’s a tough question …..

[Livid]

I think Everton will get a least a point but my major concern is how are we going to actually win our second league game since the world cup.

 

 

[Benguin]

3 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Out of interest where did you pull those figure from?

How are Bournemouth only a 1 in 10 chance of beating Bournemouth?

 

They are my thoughts so not pulled from anywhere. 
 

Everton have been much stronger recently, are at home and have everything to play for. Bournemouth will likely be on the beach. I find it incredibly unlikely that Bournemouth will win hence the 10%. I hope they do though! 
 

 

[Stinkenzo]

20 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I’d put as this:
 

Everton lose - 10%
Everton Draw - 30% 

Everton Win - 60% 

 

Leicester Win - 40%
Leicester Draw - 20%
Leicester lose - 40%
 

As a Leicester win is needed there is a 40% chance of Everton result keeping us up. Of the results at Everton that would keep us up, the probability would be 40% to go in our favour. 
 

therefore we can times them to forget to get probability of staying up:

 

2/5 our game goes how we need it to

2/5 their game goes how we need it

 

4/25 chance which becomes 16%

 

 

 

 

How can I put this respectfully....who cares

 

We need to win, we need Everton not to win. Both are improbable but certainly not impossible

[SixtiesFox]

Hard to believe we still have a chance to stay up, but all the pressure is on Everton as their destiny is in their own hands - they have everything to lose, we have everything to gain.

[Twitcher]

Going to stick some money on Everton to stay up to soften the blow. Just got to get the optimum amount, so if they don't, it doesn't tarnish the celebrations.

[don_danbury]

when was the last time we actually looked like beating a side? even that wolves win was a bit ropey

[Happy Fox]

If we stay up I can see us signing Pickford and Harrison.

[Vazman]

The Bottom line is if we stay up (unlikely), or go down (likely), a complete overhaul at all levels is required, as well as a new manager and team rebuild, planning for this needs to happen now, starting with the DOF resignation and a new Manager, get this right everything else will fall into place.

 

We simply cannot carry on with Rudkin at the Wheel, and Smith as manager, Rudkins levels of failiure this season have been eye watering and Smith is not the answer going forward.

[Alf Bentley]

44 minutes ago, Livid said:

I think Everton will get a least a point but my major concern is how are we going to actually win our second league game since the world cup.

 

 

 

I know it feels a long time ago, but we've actually won 3 league games since the World Cup - we beat Villa and Spurs back in February, scoring 4 in each, as well as the recent Wolves win.

 

Let's hope we go into the match with the combative attitude we showed for the first 20 minutes v. Liverpool and have gained a bit of self-belief from last night's clean sheet, for a start.

Then....we know we have goals in our team, if we can just show the requisite commitment, self-belief and defensive discipline. A big "IF", admittedly!