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ealingfox

Relegation

By ealingfox, in Leicester City Forum

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LCFCJohn

LCFCJohn

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, RedSoxUK said:

It's not clutching at straws though, is it, the run to the world cup is very favourable (literally the best on paper of the 20.) We don't need to beat the Top 6, we did not get thrashed by Southampton which we shouldn't have lost and looked way better until we went ahead, likewise Brentford which we should have won - theyre far more indicative of our current state than Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton away, and Man U at home.

 

Forest H

Bournemouth A

Palace H

Leeds H

Wolves A

Man C 

 

You can't deny that our expected points is significantly higher than the first run of games both in fan view, and bookies odds. Rodgers or not it's favourable. We'll obviously see how it goes in a few weeks but I do have the belief these games will provide 10-12 points. 13 by the WC after 13 games.

 

I have just not seen anything for a long time to suggest the team knows or has the confidence to get any sort of result let alone a win. I’m looking at those games not expecting a win as things are getting worse by the week. If there was any positive signs to grasp on to, believe me I would. I have never seen a Leicester side in my time (admittedly only since about 2002) that look defeated in every game before they even kick off. 
 

We have been 2-0 up to a poor Brentford side, blew it. 1-0 at a good stage in the game to a poor Southampton (both at home), managed to not just draw but lose. Arsenal twice we got a goal back and promptly folded again. Chelsea down to 10 men and we give up 2 goals. Ironically the only game we kept the conceded goals down to 1 (Man Utd), we failed to score. Brighton and Spurs the less said the better but early goal in both and in the blink of an eye 2-1 down. Managed then to get level to reset in the break at both and completely feel apart in both second half’s. It’s a shocking record not matter how you spin who the games were against. Forest will beat us as they will want to win the game, we won’t. It’s that simple.

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Guest Col city fan

Guest Col city fan

Posted
Posted
Just now, LCFCJohn said:

I have just not seen anything for a long time to suggest the team knows or has the confidence to get any sort of result let alone a win. I’m looking at those games not expecting a win as things are getting worse by the week. If there was any positive signs to grasp on to, believe me I would. I have never seen a Leicester side in my time (admittedly only since about 2002) that look defeated in every game before they even kick off. 
 

We have been 2-0 up to a poor Brentford side, blew it. 1-0 at a good stage in the game to a poor Southampton (both at home), managed to not just draw but lose. Arsenal twice we got a goal back and promptly folded again. Chelsea down to 10 men and we give up 2 goals. Ironically the only game we kept the conceded goals down to 1 (Man Utd), we failed to score. Brighton and Spurs the less said the better but early goal in both and in the blink of an eye 2-1 down. Managed then to get level to reset in the break at both and completely feel apart in both second half’s. It’s a shocking record not matter how you spin who the games were against. Forest will beat us as they will want to win the game, we won’t. It’s that simple.

Agree with all of this but I think we’ll beat Forest.

We will get some wins. Law of averages will dictate that we’ll somehow scrape a few victories. Some of our better players will have a decent game or two and the opposition will be off form etc.

But this won’t paper over the cracks that change is needed.

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Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted (edited)

Currently requiring a run rate of 1.25ppg to hit 40 points this season, which is about a 48pt season over 38 games. We've missed that target 3 times since promotion, though one of those was 47 in 2018 so would be very close. We've been fairly comfortably above that run rate (on complete seasons) since 2018. Would drift into much more likely relegation once we get to around 53+ run rate required - which we have hit three times over a 38 game season. Definitely more attainable over short periods though.

 

Over the last 5 years the points for survival has averaged at 34ish, but there is an outlier of 29 in there. Ignoring that it's been consistently around 35 recently, with a max of 36 over the last 5 years. Taking 36 as the points target, we'd need to complete the remainder of the season at 1.13ppg, which is about a 43 point season. The season after promotion is the only season we haven't hit that level. 

 

Clearly we've dropped off where we were last season but there is plenty of room for improvement should the right changes be made. If anything, the above demonstrates just how far below the capability of the squad we are currently performing. October really could be make or break. 

Edited by Number 6
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Lcfc098

Lcfc098

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

In a weird way relegation would probably reignite my interest a fair bit but I'm not for a minute suggesting that's what I wanna see happen. I'm resigned to us going down if we don't pull the trigger soon 

Hopefully get rid of all the happy clappers that take up our stadium and bring a bit of atmosphere in.

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Lcfc098 said:

Hopefully get rid of all the happy clappers that take up our stadium and bring a bit of atmosphere in.

You have a short memory. The atmosphere in the Championship was much crapper than in the Premier League. They’d be 10,000 empty seats and only a few sang next to the away fans only when Jobber started the drumming.

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Lcfc098

Lcfc098

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sampson said:

You have a short memory. The atmosphere in the Championship was much crapper than in the Premier League. They’d be 10,000 empty seats and only a few sang next to the away fans only when Jobber started the drumming.

It would give the section a lot of space to grow in the Kop and would hopefully mean when we got back to the premier league and sell outs we'd have a massive dedicated singing section

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FoxesWalk

FoxesWalk

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

If we go down in our current situation it's likely the next league we see will be League One, not the PL.

It’s probably not wildly far fetched to think it could bankrupt the club given how we have been borrowing ahead against future PL income 

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Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

If we go down in our current situation it's likely the next league we see will be League One, not the PL.

Nah the Champ is absolutely awful. Not saying we'd come back instantly but you only have to have a brief glimpse at the table to see how recently relegated teams are getting on. 

 

Sheff Utd - 1st

Norwich - 2nd

Burnley - 4th

Watford - 10th

West Brom - 21

 

West Brom definitely the outlier and suspect Bruce will go soon. Any team relegated from the Prem at the moment should be finishing in the top 6. We'd have a ton of money to spend after selling some assets if we dropped and would have to make sure it wasn't pissed up the wall, but we'd have plenty to get back up out of that league.

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Daggers

Daggers

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

If we go down in our current situation it's likely the next league we see will be League One, not the PL.

Affordable tickets, fun pre-match pubs, able to buy away tickets - I’m up for another L1 tour, the last one was ace. 

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Guest Col city fan

Guest Col city fan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

Nah the Champ is absolutely awful. Not saying we'd come back instantly but you only have to have a brief glimpse at the table to see how recently relegated teams are getting on. 

 

Sheff Utd - 1st

Norwich - 2nd

Burnley - 4th

Watford - 10th

West Brom - 21

 

West Brom definitely the outlier and suspect Bruce will go soon. Any team relegated from the Prem at the moment should be finishing in the top 6. We'd have a ton of money to spend after selling some assets if we dropped and would have to make sure it wasn't pissed up the wall, but we'd have plenty to get back up out of that league.

Completely agree with this.

I’ve never had the argument that the Prem and the Championship aren’t too dissimilar.

They are worlds apart in all metrics. Player ability, levels of fitness, speed of play, chances taken etc.

But if we did get relegated, we’d pretty much have to start again.

Maddison would leave, Tielemans, Barnes would be sold, lots of players out of contract anyway.

We REALLY WOULD have to rebuild.

Edited by Col city fan
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filbertway

filbertway

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

Nah the Champ is absolutely awful. Not saying we'd come back instantly but you only have to have a brief glimpse at the table to see how recently relegated teams are getting on. 

 

Sheff Utd - 1st

Norwich - 2nd

Burnley - 4th

Watford - 10th

West Brom - 21

 

West Brom definitely the outlier and suspect Bruce will go soon. Any team relegated from the Prem at the moment should be finishing in the top 6. We'd have a ton of money to spend after selling some assets if we dropped and would have to make sure it wasn't pissed up the wall, but we'd have plenty to get back up out of that league.

Still remember a lot of people saying that Newcastle fans were out of line for complaining about Bruce and wanting better lol

 

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Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Completely agree with this.

I’ve never had the argument that the Prem and the Championship aren’t too dissimilar.

They are worlds apart in all metrics. Player ability, levels of fitness, speed of play, chances taken etc.

But if we did get relegated, we’d pretty much have to start again.

Maddison would leave, Tielemans, Barnes would be sold, lots of players out of contract anyway.

We REALLY WOULD have to rebuild.

That would be the biggest challenge for us I think. Would be a similar level of player turnover to Forest this year and that is a massive challenge. We'd get good money for the likes of Madders, Barnes, Castagne, and potentially a few others who wouldn't be willing to stick around. But replacing them smartly would be difficult. Particularly replacing the creative players behind Vardy or Patson would be challenging, but I'd expect us to be top end of the Champ.

 

It would still do massive amounts of damage of course: you'd have to create a team capable of promotion, then one again of staying up, and then start building back up to challenge for 'best of the rest'. Would undo years of reasonably good work.

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Stadt

Stadt

Posted
Posted

If we went down we'd have to sign 15+ players

 

I have no faith that we're institutionally competent enough to:

 

a) sign that many

b) get value for money

c) buy good enough players

 

We have 9 out of contract (off the top of my head) and then we'd likely lose almost all of Barnes, Maddison, Justin, Iheanacho, Daka, Vestergaard, Soumare, Ndidi and Castagne.

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sishades

sishades

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Nah the Champ is absolutely awful. Not saying we'd come back instantly but you only have to have a brief glimpse at the table to see how recently relegated teams are getting on. 

 

Sheff Utd - 1st

Norwich - 2nd

Burnley - 4th

Watford - 10th

West Brom - 21

 

West Brom definitely the outlier and suspect Bruce will go soon. Any team relegated from the Prem at the moment should be finishing in the top 6. We'd have a ton of money to spend after selling some assets if we dropped and would have to make sure it wasn't pissed up the wall, but we'd have plenty to get back up out of that league.

Sunderland, Sheffield Wed, Forest all thought that too.

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BenTheFox

BenTheFox

Posted
Posted

There are a couple of things that give me a little bit of hope is that Crystal Palace in 2017/18 had 4 points from their opening 11 games and stayed up relatively comfortably, finishing 11th with 44 points. Newcastle in 2018-19 had 3 points from their opening 10 games and stayed up comfortably on 45 points. 

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