Also in the News - Part 2

[urban.spaceman]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

I realise I'm probably pretty much on my own here, but I'm not 100% convinced Lucy Letby is responsible. It's always bothered me that all the evidence is pretty circumstantial. Lots of coincidences, but what if they are exactly that? The notes she wrote are for me the most damning, but it's still not an admission of guilt, nor is it concrete proof.

I think her presence at every death and "incident" is pretty damning personally. These types of murders are difficult to prove as there isn't really a 'smoking gun' per se. But she was found guilty on all 7 counts of murder and 6 attempted murder. The fact that the mortality rate rose exponentially when she was there and has dropped since she left isn't a coincidence. I think in time she's be diagnosed as a psychopath - a complete lack of empathy and remorse, and seeming to revel in what she'd done by sending cards, texts and smiling after a death. She even kept trophies, which is pretty common for serial killers.

 

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

Maybe I'm just getting soft the older I get, or maybe it's because I just can't comprehend a woman actually doing what she's been convicted of, idk.

Not a pop at you but this might just be part of why she got away with it for so long. There's much less suspicion of women in society, especially around children, and much more empathy when they break the law. Don't want to sound like an "MRA" as I don't consider myself one, but there's many patterns of such inequalities that are overlooked in society AND get weaponised by criminals. 

[urban.spaceman]

Also, love this from the BBC :

 

 

BREAKINGTrump says he will be arrested at 19:30 local time

Donald Trump has just said he expects to be arrested at 19:30 local time (00:30BST), in a post on his social media network Truth Social.

The rest of the post, which is hard to describe, is below in screenshot form:

 

[urban.spaceman]

32 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Can't believe people are taking the piss out of how Florida Governor Ron De Santis was smiling during the Republican nominee debate the other night. I'm going to smile like this from now on

 

 

[Bellend Sebastian]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Also, love this from the BBC :

 

 

BREAKINGTrump says he will be arrested at 19:30 local time

Donald Trump has just said he expects to be arrested at 19:30 local time (00:30BST), in a post on his social media network Truth Social.

The rest of the post, which is hard to describe, is below in screenshot form:

 

If I was thick - well, thicker than I already am, anyway - I wouldn't put my trust in another thicko to be my leader. I like to think I'd be a bit more demanding.

 

I find it amazing that there are enough people in the US that can see stuff like this and still think this f***ing dunce is the guy for me

[Bellend Sebastian]

For those of us understandably asking "how could this happen" about the Lucy Letby case, this opinion piece provides some interesting pointers: 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/24/lucy-letby-serial-killer-forensic-psychologist-murderer

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

I realise I'm probably pretty much on my own here, but I'm not 100% convinced Lucy Letby is responsible. It's always bothered me that all the evidence is pretty circumstantial. Lots of coincidences, but what if they are exactly that? The notes she wrote are for me the most damning, but it's still not an admission of guilt, nor is it concrete proof. 

 

Maybe I'm just getting soft the older I get, or maybe it's because I just can't comprehend a woman actually doing what she's been convicted of, idk.

With at least two of the deaths, the baby was found to have an overdose of insulin and that wasn't denied by the defence; the defence was that someone else did it.  

 

The thing that courts aren't necessarily good at is working out independence, statistically.  There was a woman a few years ago sent to jail because two of her babies died of cot death, and the prosecution held (and the fool defence didn't challenge) that if the possibility of one cot death is say 1 in 200, the possibility of two is that amount squared, or 1 in 40,000.  This isn't true because if there are factors in common that affect the position - eg. either genetic or environmental factors = there is no independence and the sum can't be worked like that.

 

In this case, the only factor that affects independence is the presence of Letby on the ward.  One death in 7 years since confirms that the environment isn't at fault, and obviously genetics don't come into it.  It's an intensive care was so the chances of baby death must be higher than the average, but if it's 1 in 50 then the chances of 7 deaths (given independence) is 1 in 781 billion.  

 

And the other statistical quirk relates to the corroborating evidence of the diaries and such.  If someone is suspected, largely due to wild statistical improbability, of dreadful crimes, and the evidence found at home appears to confirm that the suspicions are correct, that's quite good corroboration.  Whereas if the home diary evidence had been found first and used as the basis of the case, it's value as evidence would be almost worthless.

[leicsmac]

5 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Also, love this from the BBC :

 

 

BREAKINGTrump says he will be arrested at 19:30 local time

Donald Trump has just said he expects to be arrested at 19:30 local time (00:30BST), in a post on his social media network Truth Social.

The rest of the post, which is hard to describe, is below in screenshot form:

 

 

3 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

If I was thick - well, thicker than I already am, anyway - I wouldn't put my trust in another thicko to be my leader. I like to think I'd be a bit more demanding.

 

I find it amazing that there are enough people in the US that can see stuff like this and still think this f***ing dunce is the guy for me

This is the actual mugshot. I don't think much else need be said.

 

[ozleicester]

i was wrong

Edited 25 August 2023 by ozleicester

[Jaspa]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

 

This is the actual mugshot. I don't think much else need be said.

 

 

[Bellend Sebastian]

He may have been arrested but it's been confirmed that Trump's not as overweight as everyone thought he was, so, you know, swings and roundabouts and all that

[Bellend Sebastian]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

This is the actual mugshot. I don't think much else need be said.

 

It is the Paddington hard stare my daughter gives me when I take the piss out of her 

[leicsmac]

7 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

With at least two of the deaths, the baby was found to have an overdose of insulin and that wasn't denied by the defence; the defence was that someone else did it.  

 

The thing that courts aren't necessarily good at is working out independence, statistically.  There was a woman a few years ago sent to jail because two of her babies died of cot death, and the prosecution held (and the fool defence didn't challenge) that if the possibility of one cot death is say 1 in 200, the possibility of two is that amount squared, or 1 in 40,000.  This isn't true because if there are factors in common that affect the position - eg. either genetic or environmental factors = there is no independence and the sum can't be worked like that.

 

In this case, the only factor that affects independence is the presence of Letby on the ward.  One death in 7 years since confirms that the environment isn't at fault, and obviously genetics don't come into it.  It's an intensive care was so the chances of baby death must be higher than the average, but if it's 1 in 50 then the chances of 7 deaths (given independence) is 1 in 781 billion.  

 

And the other statistical quirk relates to the corroborating evidence of the diaries and such.  If someone is suspected, largely due to wild statistical improbability, of dreadful crimes, and the evidence found at home appears to confirm that the suspicions are correct, that's quite good corroboration.  Whereas if the home diary evidence had been found first and used as the basis of the case, it's value as evidence would be almost worthless.

I believe this is a subset of Bayesian statistics and how it can be used in criminal cases, yes?

[String fellow]

48 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I believe this is a subset of Bayesian statistics and how it can be used in criminal cases, yes?

I read somewhere that the jury in the O.J.Simpson case would have found him guilty of murder, based on Bayesian statistics, but their emotional response (to the probability that someone like him could have done it) meant that he was found not guilty. This suggests that there's a strong argument for it to used in murder cases, but because some jurors wouldn't understand it, there is disagreement in the legal profession about whether or not it's appropriate. Fortunately, in the Letby case, the jury weren't fooled by her efforts to play the innocent victim.       

[Daggers]

On 24/08/2023 at 09:49, Jon the Hat said:

Where did I say people don’t deserve appropriate pay? They also deserve to be commended for good work and given credit for their efforts.  Daggers was suggesting it’s all bollocks except pay which isn’t true at all.

No I didn’t.

[Daggers]

This is what I said:

 

 

[Footballwipe]

I'm sorry, I just find it incredibly hard for anyone to come out with theories and doubts about her conviction when they haven't spent ten months in that courtroom going through every single shred of evidence, every witness testimony, every bit of data that pins Letby to each death.

 

This wasn't some show trial and rushed prosecution to make a point; this was a forensic examination and look into grim crimes, which were suspected by colleagues who tried to report it and were quashed.

 

I also find it hard for anyone to cast doubt when, magically, the excess deaths of babies stopped as soon as Letby was off that ward.

 

 

[SlaneyLCFC]

"OMg TheY GoT thE eviL OranGe NaZi!!1"

😂

[st albans fox]

3 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

He may have been arrested but it's been confirmed that Trump's not as overweight as everyone thought he was, so, you know, swings and roundabouts and all that

Or he’s just lied about his weight in Atlanta ??

 

215 pounds at 6’ 3” for a big built guy in his seventies ??

 

why would he have been recorded at 240 lbs at his last ‘booking in’ ??

[Bellend Sebastian]

Just now, st albans fox said:

Or he’s just lied about his weight in Atlanta ??

 

215 pounds at 6’ 3” for a big built guy in his seventies ??

 

why would he have been recorded at 240 lbs at his last ‘booking in’ ??

I've read since suggestions that it was 'self reported', and (and I've no idea if this is remotely true) that those stats are typical of NFL quarterbacks, which is surely just a massive coincidence 

[Bellend Sebastian]

Also, I think they missed an opportunity to get a much better photo by not having a really powerful fan blown at his head while it was being taken

[urban.spaceman]

Called it...

 

 

 

[tom27111]

9 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

This is the actual mugshot. I don't think much else need be said.

 

This is the best picture I've ever seen.

 

It's magnificent 

[Daggers]

9 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

This is the actual mugshot. I don't think much else need be said.

 

All I'm feeling is a shit sequel...

 

 

[ozleicester]

1 hour ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Also, I think they missed an opportunity to get a much better photo by not having a really powerful fan blown at his head while it was being taken

[ozleicester]