Supercomputer predicts 13th Place finish for Leicester

[Chelmofox]

No good if the model thinks Youri is going to score a banger every 4th game and it thinks Vardy has goals in him. 

 

Saying that, i'm oddly confident we are going to get 12th. It think we beat Palace and have an okayish end to the season.

 

My issue is that ending 12th this season is as bad as getting 8th last year. Papers over every crack and will be seen as a success for Rodgers. 

[RoboFox]

Can it send a cyborg assassin back in time? 

 

Just a thought... 

[HybridFox]

Thought it predicted us to go down before?

[Tuna]

These super computer predictions are a load of old cobblers!

[Vazman]

I get Computers, even Super Computers, they have there uses.

 

But in this instance I'll just trust the "Mark One Eyeballs", currently, they tell me if we dont start winning matches and PDQ, we is going to be watching Championship Footy next season.

[Jattdogg]

3 hours ago, J. James said:

Is a "math major" something they have in America?

This is Great Britain, we speak English here!

Over here in Canada it's math for short or mathematics otherwise.

 

My degree is in Mathematical Science not Math Science or Maths Science lol.

 

....Leicester are nobodies....Come on lads, you do the maths!.... (in that spurs fan voice)

 

[ParkerPen]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

I suspect these super computers had us finishing 3rd or 4th in 2019/20 and 2020/21 with less than a couple of % chance of finishing outside the top 4. We did then and we'll do it again, statistical breakers.

you'll never sing that

[yorkie1999]

42

[fazzyfox]

[J. James]

12 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

42

Ahh... LTUaE

[KingsX]

5 hours ago, CosbehFox said:

Most of the prediction / projection sites are rating are our chances for relegation between 11 to 15% at the moment. A lot of it is based on their rating of our side which looks to me grossly over estimated - particularly as it doesn’t take into account injuries.

 

Bingo.  The fivethirtyeight algorithm resets the club SPI (strength) ratings before each season, and a significant factor is squad value according to transfermarkt.  After that, they go up or down based on results.  (Using a few metrics which have proved the most predictive over the years.)  But that initial squad value continues to bias the number, and fails to reflect the players not available.

 

Even if we stay up, LCFC's SPI rating should start next season the lowest since 2015, as Rodgers and the board have destroyed half the squad value over the last 18 months.  So the predictions will align more with current reality.

 

And of course, the managers are not taken into account.   This supercomputer is the only thing outside of Steve Parish that believes in a 75-year-old Roy...

(it rates our match v Palace as a toss-up) 

[st albans fox]

Forest home form is the key for them

 

Their most winnable fixtures are wolves (who owe them for the league cup exit on pens) and Soton

 

their other home games are Brighton, yanited, arsenal and Southampton.

they finish away at palace 

 

i could see them getting three wins and a draw from those games alone 

 

so that’s 36 points 

 

the key to survival for all the teams in the mini league is most importantly not losing to teams in that mini league and obviously nicking a win from them 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[J. James]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

I suspect these super computers had us finishing 3rd or 4th in 2019/20 and 2020/21 with less than a couple of % chance of finishing outside the top 4. We did then and we'll do it again, statistical breakers.

Haha...mid march prediction on both.

[trugerkem]

Supercomputer out 😆

[Jattdogg]

1 minute ago, trugerkem said:

Supercomputer out 😆

Is it out yet?

[J. James]

Just now, trugerkem said:

Supercomputer out 😆

Lol..banners at the Vile match please!

[Ric Flair]

It's unnerving if we do make a mess of the April fixtures but if we do as expected, we ought to only need a point or two from the final 4 fixtures. I just hope it doesn't come down to the final game of the season.

[Facecloth]

Who knew a computer could get drunk.

[J. James]

1 hour ago, Jattdogg said:

Over here in Canada it's math for short or mathematics otherwise.

 

My degree is in Mathematical Science not Math Science or Maths Science lol.

 

....Leicester are nobodies....Come on lads, you do the maths!.... (in that spurs fan voice)

 

Lol..and in South Africa it's "Wisunde", whilst on the planet Kronos its "marSe'luS".

 

But as this is not an Afrikaans, Klingon or even Canadian forum it's Maths!

 

[J. James]

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

It's unnerving if we do make a mess of the April fixtures but if we do as expected, we ought to only need a point or two from the final 4 fixtures. I just hope it doesn't come down to the final game of the season.

But we all know...95.3%..it will!

[CosbehFox]

19 minutes ago, J. James said:

Haha...mid march prediction on both.

Both were fair predictions considering:-

 

1) Liverpool went unbeaten from that point in the first one - drawing just one game out of their remaining fixtures

2) The second image is discounting Man City as one of the top four because at the time UEFA had barred them from UCL qualification. 

[J. James]

Ok, l managed to get a picture of this so called Supercomputer...(derisive voice)..

But there's something weird about it...can't work it out..🤔

[MustardTiger]

Pull the plug, save the leccy.

[Clever Fox]

The Computer can predict all it likes, The team still has to go out there and perform better than they have been doing to avoid relegation.

Leaving aside the Rogers issue. We need to get behind the players and give them our full support. They're just as much a victim of Rogers as we are.

[TheFish]

That's as much looking at the shoddy teams below and around you, as much as your own strengths/weaknesses.

 

Bournemouth are down, probably Southampton too. But then there's Nottingham, for example, they're terrible and are in my opinion way more likely to go down than you are. You have experienced top flight players, some real quality throughout the team too. You're as likely to go down as Everton, Wolves or Leeds. 

 

13% is about right, for me.