Premier League Thread 2023/2024

[coolhandfox]

Crazy price for Caicedo, seems a bit of a panic buy for Liverpool.

 

Paying big money DM seems to be in vogue at the moment. 

 

3 hours ago, StanSP said:

Insane for Brighton. Fair play to them their recruitment has been so good. 

 

White, Trossard, Caicedo, Mac Allister, Bissouma, Cucurella. 

And probably Mitoma they'll get a hefty fee for one day. 

Yes but it will catch up with them, you can't keep selling your best players as we have found.

 

At some point, you get a few incoming wrong. 

 

 

[pmcla26]

I'm intrigued to see how Liverpool get on with not a lot of height in the middle of the park. 

 

I know that their powers were waning, but they relied a lot on Fabinho and Henderson's physicality when they were at their peak as a side. 

Edited 11 August 2023 by Pete52

[Finnegan]

1 hour ago, kingkisnorbo said:

If that's all that needed to be tabled for Kane to leave, I'm kind of shocked English clubs didn't get involved. Kane for that money is still a no brainer. Pays for himself in no time. 

 

I imagine Levy would have applied a heavy rivals tax for other big six clubs. It's one thing letting him go, it's another letting him go to a Prem club. 

 

Besides, in fairness to Harry Kane, as much as he gets memed on by Leicester fans because of 15/16, he seems like a pretty loyal guy that genuinely loves Spurs. He could have forced a move to another English club years ago but he hasn't. Maybe he genuinely isn't keen playing for another Prem side. 

 

Bayern is a great move anyway let's be fair.

[Finnegan]

9 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

At some point, you get a few incoming wrong

 

Without wanting to sound bitter, you have to imagine they'll start having the problems we did as well. 

 

People are going to start charging more and more when Brighton come sniffing and as they try and convince a higher calibre of player to come they're going to have to start stretching their wage structure and trying to contend with life as a bigger club. 

 

It's a tough transition, we butchered it completely. They absolutely should and probably will learn from lessons we've given but even so it'll be hard. 

[foxfanazer]

13 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Without wanting to sound bitter, you have to imagine they'll start having the problems we did as well. 

 

People are going to start charging more and more when Brighton come sniffing and as they try and convince a higher calibre of player to come they're going to have to start stretching their wage structure and trying to contend with life as a bigger club. 

 

It's a tough transition, we butchered it completely. They absolutely should and probably will learn from lessons we've given but even so it'll be hard. 

Yep, we've gone from being the successful blueprint to the cautionary tale in a relatively short period of time

[Finnegan]

59 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Don't know much about him. Any good? 

 

 

 

 

This is fvcking hilarious. You couldn't make this up. 

 

So one of Everton's biggest problems is the objectively bad finishers they have at the club. Neal Maupay underperforms his expected goals by about -0.3 per 90 minutes and DCL by about -0.2, they're two of the worst (if not THE two worst) of all strikers to play a decent number of 90s last year. 

 

As @Stadt likes to point out, the majority of footballers land about on par vs their xG which is both a reflection of how well calculated xG is and that there aren't massively radical swings between the finishing abilities of MOST professional footballers, with the likes of Salah, Kane and Haaland being outliers that really drill home how rare they are. 

 

Most strikers fall between about +0.05 and -0.05 of their xG when it comes to actual goals which really puts in to context just HOW BAD Maupay and DCL are. Between them they're basically leaving a goal every other game out there and they're Everton's main strikers. If both met their par last year, Everton would probably have been a mid table side. It's especially problematic for a Sean Dyche team because they're typically going to create less and need efficient finishers who will take advantage, akin to us having Vardy over the last decade. 

 

So suffice to say Everton should really probably be looking to sign a striker that's quite strong on this metric right? You'd think it would be quite important that they find a consistent and reliable finisher that can match or even better their xG? 

 

Nope. 

 

This kid is sitting at -0.22 beneath his xG, he's worse than DCL statistically.

 

Now look, he's a kid with a massive amount of time to improve and the sample size isn't huge, he played about 10 lots of top flight 90s last year. He's young and raw and we shouldn't read too much in to the stats. But that's still absolutely hilarious. 

 

Edited 11 August 2023 by Finnegan

[Guest Kopfkino]

10 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Without wanting to sound bitter, you have to imagine they'll start having the problems we did as well. 

 

People are going to start charging more and more when Brighton come sniffing and as they try and convince a higher calibre of player to come they're going to have to start stretching their wage structure and trying to contend with life as a bigger club. 

 

It's a tough transition, we butchered it completely. They absolutely should and probably will learn from lessons we've given but even so it'll be hard. 

I mean I agree that it’s hard to keep it up but I think Brighton have a strategy and a set of processes that back up the execution of that strategy. And it’s driven right from the top by applying similar thinking to what made Tony Bloom his money in the first place. We don’t have that and I don’t think Brighton will ever try to play at the big table with wages like we did.

 

No doubting they’ve also had to get fortunate to have this run of players but I think we just got far more fortunate hence we signed Mahrez when we were on a scouting mission for another player, sold him  and a billion transfer windows later we’ve still not replaced him.

[coolhandfox]

4 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Without wanting to sound bitter, you have to imagine they'll start having the problems we did as well. 

 

People are going to start charging more and more when Brighton come sniffing and as they try and convince a higher calibre of player to come they're going to have to start stretching their wage structure and trying to contend with life as a bigger club. 

 

It's a tough transition, we butchered it completely. They absolutely should and probably will learn from lessons we've given but even so it'll be hard. 

You can only go to the well so many times, as we and Southampton have found out over the years. 

 

Southampton had a run of finishing 8th, 7th,  6th, 8th (2013-2017) but sold the likes of Lallana, Shaw, Lovran, Clyne, Mane, Wanyama, Van Djik and then circled the plughole from then on.

 

A club of ours or Brighton, Southampton size are one or two poor windows from trouble. 

 

I can see them being pulled down the table. 

 

 

[Stadt]

Just now, Finnegan said:

 

This is fvcking hilarious. You couldn't make this up. 

 

So one of Everton's biggest problems is the objectively bad finishers they have at the club. Neal Maupay underperforms his expected goals by about -0.3 per 90 minutes and DCL by about -0.2, they're two of the worst (if not THE two worst) of all strikers to play a decent number of 90s last year. 

 

As @Stadt likes to point out, the majority of footballers land about on par vs their xG which is both a reflection of how well calculated xG is and that there aren't massively radical swings between the finishing abilities of MOST professional footballers, with the likes of Salah, Kane and Haaland being outliers that really drill home how rare they are. 

 

Most strikers fall between about +0.05 and -0.05 of their xG when it comes to actual goals which really puts in to context just HOW BAD Maupay and DCL are. Between them they're basically leaving a goal every other game out there and they're Everton's main strikers. If both met their par last year, Everton would probably have been a mid table side. 

 

So suffice to say Everton should really probably be looking to sign a striker that's quite strong on this metric right? You'd think it would be quite important that they find a consistent and reliable finisher that can match or even better their xG? 

 

Nope. 

 

This kid is sitting at -0.22 beneath his xG, he's worse than DCL statistically.

 

Now look, he's a kid with a massive amount of time to improve and the sample size isn't huge, he played about 10 lots of top flight 90s last year. He's young and raw and we shouldn't read too much in to the stats. But that's still absolutely hilarious. 

 

The sample size is just too small. Players have wild swings between seasons, they're just quirks of variance. Vardy was 5 behind his xG in 20-21 and 4 ahead the season after. A couple of seasons really isn't enough to conclusively judge a players ability. There's no rules obviously about how long you should wait but 3 or 4 years and 100 or so nineties is probably a fair enough sample.

[Finnegan]

2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

I mean I agree that it’s hard to keep it up but I think Brighton have a strategy and a set of processes that back up the execution of that strategy. And it’s driven right from the top by applying similar thinking to what made Tony Bloom his money in the first place. We don’t have that and I don’t think Brighton will ever try to play at the big table with wages like we did.

 

No doubting they’ve also had to get fortunate to have this run of players but I think we just got far more fortunate hence we signed Mahrez when we were on a scouting mission for another player, sold him  and a billion transfer windows later we’ve still not replaced him.

 

I absolutely think the likes of Brighton and Brentford have gone ahead of us in terms of their recruitment and strategies and, like I said, I'm sure they'll be smart enough to watch and learn from the mistakes of clubs like us and Soton. 

 

But there's still no denying it's going to get harder for them the more their profile grows. The bigger their reputation for successful and intelligent business, the more other selling clubs are going to realise they have an asset when Brighton come sniffing and the more they're going to hold them to ransom. It will definitely get tougher for them, they can't really fly under the radar anymore. 

[Finnegan]

Just now, Stadt said:

The sample size is just too small. Players have wild swings between seasons, they're just quirks of variance. Vardy was 5 behind his xG in 20-21 and 4 ahead the season after. A couple of seasons really isn't enough to conclusively judge a players ability. There's no rules obviously about how long you should wait but 3 or 4 years and 100 or so nineties is probably a fair enough sample.

 

Yeah look, absolutely, and I feel I covered that in the last paragraph. But this is still pretty funny. I'm absolutely not suggesting this kid is guaranteed to flop or its definitely terrible business but it is a particularly stand out stat. 

[Stadt]

5 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

I mean I agree that it’s hard to keep it up but I think Brighton have a strategy and a set of processes that back up the execution of that strategy. And it’s driven right from the top by applying similar thinking to what made Tony Bloom his money in the first place. We don’t have that and I don’t think Brighton will ever try to play at the big table with wages like we did.

 

No doubting they’ve also had to get fortunate to have this run of players but I think we just got far more fortunate hence we signed Mahrez when we were on a scouting mission for another player, sold him  and a billion transfer windows later we’ve still not replaced him.

100%

 

Bloom and Benham will never be poached. I've made the point before but Union SG and Midtjylland's respective performance compared to Leuven's shows the gulf in knowledge, ability and competencies between our ownership and those clubs.

 

There's almost this idea of blank slatism between owners and approaches.

[Lionator]

Two very funny things could happen.

 

1) Tottenham immediately go and win one of the cup competitions this season. 
 

2) They end up in the bottom half/relegation scrap. 

[Stadt]

1 minute ago, Finnegan said:

 

Yeah look, absolutely, and I feel I covered that in the last paragraph. But this is still pretty funny. I'm absolutely not suggesting this kid is guaranteed to flop or its definitely terrible business but it is a particularly stand out stat. 

I'm aware you did cover your bases with that but I spend far too much time on fbref to really pay attention too much to one season's worth of data tbh. It's verging on sad.

[Stadt]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Tottenham immediately go and win one of the cup competitions this season.

... and Bayern blow the title  

[purpleronnie]

Caicedo having second thoughts about going to Liverpool, probably googled mapped it....

[kingcarr21]

14 minutes ago, Stadt said:

... and Bayern blow the title  

This is absolutely going to happen. Spurs to win Carabao cup and Dortmund to win Bundesliga. Might check the odds  

 

[turlo]

 

surely he had terms agreed in principle with Liverpool or at least gave them the green light before they bid 110m?!

 

[RoboFox]

 

 

What on earth? 

Am I missing something here? Caceido is decent, right? But two top clubs outbidding each other at £100m+ decent? Absolutely absurd. 

 

[coolhandfox]

3 minutes ago, turlo said:

 

surely he had terms agreed in principle with Liverpool or at least gave them the green light before they bid 110m?!

 

Chelsea letting Liverpool do the donkey work.

 

 

[StanSP]

Makes Klopp look funny as he said a deal had been agreed. 

 

 

[Iran]

Premier League starts today! 

[Fox92]

How many players do Chelsea want.

[Chelmofox]

32 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

 

What on earth? 

Am I missing something here? Caceido is decent, right? But two top clubs outbidding each other at £100m+ decent? Absolutely absurd. 

 

He is clearly a plonker as well. Surely all this nonsense should be putting clubs off him. 
 

And hasn’t he seen what happens to most players when they get to Chelsea these days?!?

[Finnegan]

Shearer calling Newcastle's season last year a miracle. No, Alan, finishing top four is a reasonable return when you spend hundreds and hundreds of millions on a football squad.