deep blue Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 Just now, Pub breath said: It wasn't arbitrary. Our August was a complete mess and comparing the team we had at the start of the season with the one we have now, makes no sense as it's a different and finally settled team now (another factor being that Maresca had a whole month longer with you than Farke has with us). Comparing from September makes for a reasonable comparison between the two teams. Then factor in match difficulty and number of home vs away matches and it paints a different picture than Leicester being an 11 point better team than Leeds. That stat not lying was what I was contesting, not that Leeds are demonstrably better then Leicester. I was just showing how the table can mislead. You're right. Interesting to bring in the managers, though, when you talk about your preparedness for the season compared to ourselves. It's worth noting that your manager has huge experience in the Championship, and at the higher levels of this league, whereas Maresca is, by comparison, a novice. There's room for learning and improving for him over the season which could see our performances improve tactically as the season develops, so that gives us optimism for getting even better as the season plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Flair Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 31 minutes ago, Pub breath said: It wasn't arbitrary. Our August was a complete mess and comparing the team we had at the start of the season with the one we have now, makes no sense as it's a different and finally settled team now (another factor being that Maresca had a whole month longer with you than Farke has with us). Comparing from September makes for a reasonable comparison between the two teams. Then factor in match difficulty and number of home vs away matches and it paints a different picture than Leicester being an 11 point better team than Leeds. That stat not lying was what I was contesting, not that Leeds are demonstrably better then Leicester. I was just showing how the table can mislead. Only thing I'd say is, we are better away from home. Won every game. Whether our away form continues to be stronger, I don't know. Tomorrow will be a big test. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pub breath Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 3 minutes ago, deep blue said: You're right. Interesting to bring in the managers, though, when you talk about your preparedness for the season compared to ourselves. It's worth noting that your manager has huge experience in the Championship, and at the higher levels of this league, whereas Maresca is, by comparison, a novice. There's room for learning and improving for him over the season which could see our performances improve tactically as the season develops, so that gives us optimism for getting even better as the season plays out. I expect you're right. Incredible start Maresca has had to his managerial career. Groundbreaking, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolhandfox Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 Take away August and we have still won more game, scored more goals and conceded less goals, drop less points then the Leeds galacticos. Never need to ask a Leeds fan how great they are, they froth at the mouth to tell you. If you have to go around telling everyone how great you are, how big a club you are, in generally means you aren't. Bless em.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langston Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 58 minutes ago, Pub breath said: It wasn't arbitrary. Our August was a complete mess and comparing the team we had at the start of the season with the one we have now, makes no sense as it's a different and finally settled team now (another factor being that Maresca had a whole month longer with you than Farke has with us). Comparing from September makes for a reasonable comparison between the two teams. Then factor in match difficulty and number of home vs away matches and it paints a different picture than Leicester being an 11 point better team than Leeds. That stat not lying was what I was contesting, not that Leeds are demonstrably better then Leicester. I was just showing how the table can mislead. We had a shambles of a pre season and were still doing business in August too though – it wasn’t as if we had everything in place on July 1st ready to go… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox92 Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 20 minutes ago, coolhandfox said: Take away August and we have still won more game, scored more goals and conceded less goals, drop less points then the Leeds galacticos. Never need to ask a Leeds fan how great they are, they froth at the mouth to tell you. If you have to go around telling everyone how great you are, how big a club you are, in generally means you aren't. Bless em.... They tell you before you've asked the question. Massive club remember.... that spent three years in division three less than 20 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pub breath Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 8 minutes ago, Langston said: We had a shambles of a pre season and were still doing business in August too though – it wasn’t as if we had everything in place on July 1st ready to go… The difference being that you had half as many outgoings as Leeds and most of yours were done before we even had a manager in place. We had 7 players who were either first team fixtures or regular players for the first 11, leave in August alone. The shambles you had didn't seem to affect your start. Quite evidently, it did for us. The results in August during the upheaval, were poor. The results since, consistent and good. That's quite obviously a result of getting the players in and the manager having time to work with them. I think you're at risk of being a tad disingenuous if you can't recognise that and the different positions the two managers were in at the start of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 1 hour ago, Pub breath said: At the end of the season it doesn't. At this stage, the table really can lie and has lied many times before. How many times have you seen a team have a flying start and then eventually reach their true level and finish in the playoffs or worse? It seems to happen most seasons. Of course, that's not the case with Leicester, you'll win the league comfortably. It still doesn't mean that the table cannot be somewhat misleading at the 15 game point. Leeds had a well publicised mess to sort out. It took us time to get the manager and then more time to sort out all the want away players. This team, as it is now, wasn't in place until September. Since then, Leicester have taken just 4 more points than Leeds. There is more. We have also played our 3 most difficult fixtures already - the other present top 4 away. I think you have only played 1 of them. You've also played 1 more home game and 1 fewer away games to us. How the fixtures fall can and will have a big impact over a relatively small pool of games at this stage. So the table can certainly deceive. I don't know if Leicester will prove to be a better team than Leeds by the end of May, from the Sept-May period. My gut tells me that it'll probably be very close, maybe a couple of points between the teams. That'll still be enough to ensure you're comfortably up and winning the league, IMO. We’ve played 2 of the current top 4 to your 3, we’ve played more at home, but our form says we’re a better side away from home. - Not sure any of that has a major bearing on the way the table stands. Right now, there is not a single metric Leeds are better than Leicester and the fact you are 11 points behind us is about right. Don’t forget all of the off field issues - finding a new manager, shipping players out, replacing players, scouting and finding the right people to fit the new managers style - we had those too. Since September, you’ve dropped 10 points including dropping points to an awful Sheff Wed side we’ve dropped 6. I can’t seem any metric you can use to say it will be close come what May. You’ve perhaps got two players that would get anywhere near our starting 11. So take your three points, enjoy your party and celebrate like you know it’s the best result of your season and pipe down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spudulike Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 43 minutes ago, coolhandfox said: Take away August and we have still won more game, scored more goals and conceded less goals, drop less points then the Leeds galacticos. Never need to ask a Leeds fan how great they are, they froth at the mouth to tell you. If you have to go around telling everyone how great you are, how big a club you are, in generally means you aren't. Bless em.... If it ain't Yorkshire it's shite. Never known another place where the inhabitants need to tell anyone that will listen about great it is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pub breath Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 11 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: We’ve played 2 of the current top 4 to your 3, we’ve played more at home, but our form says we’re a better side away from home. - Not sure any of that has a major bearing on the way the table stands. Right now, there is not a single metric Leeds are better than Leicester and the fact you are 11 points behind us is about right. Don’t forget all of the off field issues - finding a new manager, shipping players out, replacing players, scouting and finding the right people to fit the new managers style - we had those too. Since September, you’ve dropped 10 points including dropping points to an awful Sheff Wed side we’ve dropped 6. I can’t seem any metric you can use to say it will be close come what May. You’ve perhaps got two players that would get anywhere near our starting 11. So take your three points, enjoy your party and celebrate like you know it’s the best result of your season and pipe down. Who are you arguing with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 1 minute ago, Pub breath said: Who are you arguing with? The insecurity of some of the people that keep replying to you is staggering 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messerschmitt Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 31 minutes ago, Spudulike said: If it ain't Yorkshire it's shite. Never known another place where the inhabitants need to tell anyone that will listen about great it is. Liverpool 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 27 minutes ago, Pub breath said: Who are you arguing with? Not arguing, just replying to your but…you’ve played more home games than us, you’ve played easier games than us… you’ve only got 4 more points than us since a random point in time… You stated your opinion, I replied to it, that’s generally how a forum or any form of discussion works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 24 minutes ago, filbertway said: The insecurity of some of the people that keep replying to you is staggering No insecurity here mate, quite happy with what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCFCJohn Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 45 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: We’ve played 2 of the current top 4 to your 3, we’ve played more at home, but our form says we’re a better side away from home. - Not sure any of that has a major bearing on the way the table stands. Right now, there is not a single metric Leeds are better than Leicester and the fact you are 11 points behind us is about right. Don’t forget all of the off field issues - finding a new manager, shipping players out, replacing players, scouting and finding the right people to fit the new managers style - we had those too. Since September, you’ve dropped 10 points including dropping points to an awful Sheff Wed side we’ve dropped 6. I can’t seem any metric you can use to say it will be close come what May. You’ve perhaps got two players that would get anywhere near our starting 11. So take your three points, enjoy your party and celebrate like you know it’s the best result of your season and pipe down. Not disagreeing with the majority of your point but head to head is a pretty important metric no? One that can be used to separate teams in some competitions. Hopefully we smash them in the return fixture like but it was disappointing to lose at home and they are justified in thinking they will at least close the gap a bit further even if it ultimately ends up being too much for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pub breath Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 3 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: Not arguing, just replying to your but…you’ve played more home games than us, you’ve played easier games than us… you’ve only got 4 more points than us since a random point in time… You stated your opinion, I replied to it, that’s generally how a forum or any form of discussion works. You just kind of reiterated a load of points i'd already made and said "I can’t seem any metric you can use to say it will be close come what May", despite me already agreeing that Leicester will finish well ahead of Leeds. However, if you want one metric which also suggests the teams are far closer than the table suggests, here's one: https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/ Just 3 points in it there. That certainly fits with my belief that the teams are very closely matched, now things have got going. They certainly looked that way last Friday. That was my only point. I don't think Leicester are an 11 point better team than Leeds or some 30+ points better if extrapolated over a season. I doubt the gap will be any or much wider come May, which will prove that from September, the teams will have been well matched. But, of course, we'll see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolhandfox Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 1 hour ago, filbertway said: The insecurity of some of the people that keep replying to you is staggering If you are concerned about insecurity, It is interesting you are digging out the people replying rather than the person who feels the need to come on another forum and prove how good his team is....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spudulike Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 1 hour ago, messerschmitt said: Liverpool I'll give you that but most of it seems to be outsiders telling the world how great Liverpool is. The locals need to be patronised else they get upset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan LCFC Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 Yeah Leeds didn't batter us but they definitely deserved to win. It is a shame we had such a no show on what felt a fairly big occasion but Leeds did play well. Leeds' problem is they just can't go 3/4 games without a clanger. Could fully see them dropping points tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmono84 Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 XG is an interesting stat but that’s all it is a statistic. You could get 10xg in one game but it’s still worth 3pts. You could have loads of low quality long shots in a game which takes your xG to 1 but it doesn’t mean you deserved a goal. Don’t use an xG take to show the league is a lot closer than it is, we’re well worth our lead at the summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winteriscoming Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 I think xg was invented for Spurs fans. It means fvck all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pub breath Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 18 minutes ago, jmono84 said: XG is an interesting stat but that’s all it is a statistic. You could get 10xg in one game but it’s still worth 3pts. You could have loads of low quality long shots in a game which takes your xG to 1 but it doesn’t mean you deserved a goal. Don’t use an xG take to show the league is a lot closer than it is, we’re well worth our lead at the summit. Well the point of XG is exactly that. If you had 10 low quality shots, then the data used tells them that they have a 1/10 probability of going in. So if you were able to carve out 10 shooting chances in a game, you would actually expect 1 to go in, based on the known data. In that scenario, the team did indeed deserve a goal, for creating 10 low quality shooting opportunities. XG or expected points etc are obviously not perfect but they do often provide useful pointers to teams having an unlucky/lucky run. I've seen many occasions when teams have been over perfoming vs XG/XP and then eventually hit the buffers. This data isn't suggesting Leicester don't deserve their points total but more that Leeds deserved more. That's part of football, unless you are suggesting that Leicester have never had a run of results where they felt unlucky not to pick more points up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxes_rule1978 Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 1 minute ago, winteriscoming said: I think xg was invented for Spurs fans. It means fvck all. It is about as useful as the 3 year PL table… I would rather trophies thank you, just like I would rather goals scored 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuchsntf Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 2 hours ago, Pub breath said: The difference being that you had half as many outgoings as Leeds and most of yours were done before we even had a manager in place. We had 7 players who were either first team fixtures or regular players for the first 11, leave in August alone. The shambles you had didn't seem to affect your start. Quite evidently, it did for us. The results in August during the upheaval, were poor. The results since, consistent and good. That's quite obviously a result of getting the players in and the manager having time to work with them. I think you're at risk of being a tad disingenuous if you can't recognise that and the different positions the two managers were in at the start of the season. All this has nothing to do with the now. Both managers had their challenges, nick picking devalues any debate. You won,you earnt that 1 gameday plaudits,nothing more nothing less. Ditto for ourselves over 15 games.. I use 3 slides…a 3 game slide, a 5 game slide,and a ten game slide, Looking what…. injuries/form/manager- mentality/squad- mental strength. So far we still take the plaudits,by simply having the points on the board, giving us room for the odd hiccups,or poor runs. Our challenge is to to see our the new squad meets those various stages. Your challenge is first to keep up with us and overtake us across all points. At this moment, the next game means nothing in putting me in panic mode, Away to a top Championship club,watching with open ,interested eyes. Then looking at the chasing packs various results. I never ,neither look back or forward,outside the 3/5 game slide rubric At present because of your own start,you remain , just a challenger,not even an irritating one..But the cards can still be flipped,let’s see by Xmas where we are. No end phase,but one the fans,pundits,media measuring sticks….. First priority for both teams…stay humble..softly,softly catches the monkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzzy_no7 Posted 10 November 2023 Share Posted 10 November 2023 On 09/11/2023 at 13:12, Ric Flair said: We should take that as a compliment. If they've played incredibly and beaten us by a fortuitous goal with neither side creating much else then I think that puts us in good stead. Can always rely on Duke Flair of House Barwell providing a bit of perspective 👍🏼 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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