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Sly

The Championship Thread 2023/2024

By Sly, in Leicester City Forum

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WestLothianFox

WestLothianFox

Posted
Posted

I was taking to a well known  tv pundit yesterday who was covering the  Middlesbrough Ipswich game for Sky Sports on Saturday who said that Ipswich were a bit lucky to win as Middlesbrough played well enough against them and had enough chanced to win. I think we can get at least a draw at Ipswich

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FrankieADZ

FrankieADZ

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WestLothianFox said:

I was taking to a well known  tv pundit yesterday who was covering the  Middlesbrough Ipswich game for Sky Sports on Saturday who said that Ipswich were a bit lucky to win as Middlesbrough played well enough against them and had enough chanced to win. I think we can get at least a draw at Ipswich

tbf some of their games they have had a bit of luck, one that sticks out for me was when they played Plymouth at home, Plymouth go 1-0 and should have had a penalty and Town should have had a player sent off, got neither

 

fair play to them tho, they are sticking the pace

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Lizzibee

Lizzibee

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, martyn said:

Morsy and Luongo both gone is bad news for Ipswich. 

Ipswich fan in peace.  Morsy wont go - Egypt haven't called him up for a while now. Suspect we will lose Burgess and Baggott (though he isn't a regular) and maybe Massimo

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Paninistickers

Paninistickers

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WestLothianFox said:

I was taking to a well known  tv pundit yesterday who was covering the  Middlesbrough Ipswich game for Sky Sports on Saturday who said that Ipswich were a bit lucky to win as Middlesbrough played well enough against them and had enough chanced to win. I think we can get at least a draw at Ipswich

Lol, that's being humble in the extreme.

 

Apart from Leeds away, where I'd accept a point if given, there isn't a single other game where our starting xi (selected from anyone of our 13 best players) isn't favourite to win. Doesn't mean we will win if course, but we have the best centre halves in the league, best midfielders in the league, best goalkeeper in the league, best wingers (I thought our two edged the Leeds pair in the KO game) and two proven PL strikers (albeit not at their best) 

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Deeg67

Deeg67

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Lol, that's being humble in the extreme.

 

Apart from Leeds away, where I'd accept a point if given, there isn't a single other game where our starting xi (selected from anyone of our 13 best players) isn't favourite to win. Doesn't mean we will win if course, but we have the best centre halves in the league, best midfielders in the league, best goalkeeper in the league, best wingers (I thought our two edged the Leeds pair in the KO game) and two proven PL strikers (albeit not at their best) 

Are you suggesting our wingers are better than Summerville and James?  Would Gnonto be a bench player for us?  Numbers don’t lie..

 

Summerville - 9G, 6A (1323 MP)

James - 7G, 4A (1270 MP)

 

Mavididi - 5G, 4A (1569 MP)

Fatawu - 2G, 3A (938 MP)

McAteer - 4G, 0A (664 MP)

 

That’s 26 goal contributions in about 2500 minutes from their top two wingers, and 18 in about 3170 minutes from our top three.  No question we’ve had the better side across the pitch, but there’s no way our wingers (or anyone else’s in this league) have been on a level with theirs.

Edited by Deeg67
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JimJams

JimJams

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Posted

Be interesting to see if teams sit as deep against Leeds as they do with us. You'd expect they would but maybe their ball retention isn't as good as ours which means opponents might push on more and allow more space in behind when there's a turnover.

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FOXSE

FOXSE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Motty said:

We play  6 games before the FA Cup game

4 against teams at 17th or lower

and Cardiff 7th and Ipswich 2nd

16 points would be excellent if 3 were against Ipswich

16 points from a possible 18 would be excellent even if the draw was with Ipswich, right?? 

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

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Posted

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/is-the-championship-table-lying-to-us/

 

  • Interesting article. Opta simulated match outcomes based on xG 10,000 times per match to show expected vs actual points/table positions. 
  • Leeds 'should' be top. But they're not because Leicester and Ipswich have overperformed by 10.3 and 12.5 points, respectively.
  • Leeds have actually slightly overperformed too, with 41 actual vs 39.1 expected points.

image.thumb.png.70490e61c76f3e5e8e56d18260c9bdb2.png

 

image.thumb.png.618a34496ed8e8c267429eab85fdfd4f.png

 

Either way, it's going to be a crazy 2nd half of the season. The top 4 are setting crazy standards. 

Last 12 matches: 28 points for each team (27 for Ipswich)

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Paninistickers

Paninistickers

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Are you suggesting our wingers are better than Summerville and James?  Would Gnonto be a bench player for us?  Numbers don’t lie..

 

Summerville - 9G, 6A (1323 MP)

James - 7G, 4A (1270 MP)

 

Mavididi - 5G, 4A (1569 MP)

Fatawu - 2G, 3A (938 MP)

McAteer - 4G, 0A (664 MP)

 

That’s 26 goal contributions in about 2500 minutes from their top two wingers, and 18 in about 3170 minutes from our top three.  No question we’ve had the better side across the pitch, but there’s no way our wingers (or anyone else’s in this league) have been on a level with theirs.

Fair enough. Possible slight bias in the figures due to team tactics, in that our midfield is presumably more at the end of our attacks, whereas Leeds' wingers are at the end of more of theirs. Even so, impressive figures. 

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Paninistickers

Paninistickers

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/is-the-championship-table-lying-to-us/

 

  • Interesting article. Opta simulated match outcomes based on xG 10,000 times per match to show expected vs actual points/table positions. 
  • Leeds 'should' be top. But they're not because Leicester and Ipswich have overperformed by 10.3 and 12.5 points, respectively.
  • Leeds have actually slightly overperformed too, with 41 actual vs 39.1 expected points.

image.thumb.png.70490e61c76f3e5e8e56d18260c9bdb2.png

 

image.thumb.png.618a34496ed8e8c267429eab85fdfd4f.png

 

Either way, it's going to be a crazy 2nd half of the season. The top 4 are setting crazy standards. 

Last 12 matches: 28 points for each team (27 for Ipswich)

Bit annoying really that ordinarily a quick five wins over Xmas would see us into the  mid 60s and needing a meagre 25 points to collect from January onwards. we should be home and hosed. But, we gotta be relentless. And, I suspect our style of play is well suited to a 'relentlessness' as we just will keep on doing what we keep on doing. 

 

 

 

 

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/is-the-championship-table-lying-to-us/

 

  • Interesting article. Opta simulated match outcomes based on xG 10,000 times per match to show expected vs actual points/table positions. 
  • Leeds 'should' be top. But they're not because Leicester and Ipswich have overperformed by 10.3 and 12.5 points, respectively.
  • Leeds have actually slightly overperformed too, with 41 actual vs 39.1 expected points.

image.thumb.png.70490e61c76f3e5e8e56d18260c9bdb2.png

 

image.thumb.png.618a34496ed8e8c267429eab85fdfd4f.png

 

Either way, it's going to be a crazy 2nd half of the season. The top 4 are setting crazy standards. 

Last 12 matches: 28 points for each team (27 for Ipswich)

If anyone wants some PR material as to why Enzo's style of football is most effective, this is it. Our fixation on control of games over attacking freedom is all played out. We're taking points in games relentlessly both deserved and sometimes less deserved or in close games.

 

Some might say Leeds are proving its only a matter of time before their actual matches expected but for all Leeds attacking prowess, they give up scenarios that have cost them points or at least a chunk of goals that make the stats skewed.

 

Despite all this we've scored more than them, conceded far less than them and it's a fascinating battle. I'd prefer we were home and hosed by mid winter but it's not going to happen. We need minimum 90-95 points for automatic.

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Happy Fox

Happy Fox

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

If anyone wants some PR material as to why Enzo's style of football is most effective, this is it. Our fixation on control of games over attacking freedom is all played out. We're taking points in games relentlessly both deserved and sometimes less deserved or in close games.

 

Some might say Leeds are proving its only a matter of time before their actual matches expected but for all Leeds attacking prowess, they give up scenarios that have cost them points or at least a chunk of goals that make the stats skewed.

 

Despite all this we've scored more than them, conceded far less than them and it's a fascinating battle. I'd prefer we were home and hosed by mid winter but it's not going to happen. We need minimum 90-95 points for automatic.


3-4 games for Leeds to catch us, that’s not happening. All being well we will get automatic promotion done when we beat Birmingham City at home in April 2024.

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BenTheFox

BenTheFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:


3-4 games for Leeds to catch us, that’s not happening. All being well we will get automatic promotion done when we beat Birmingham City at home in April 2024.

Sorry, but Leeds winning three games more than us out of the 26 remaining is certainly not insurmountable, especially when we still have to play them at Elland Road! Leeds have more points at this stage than Burnley did last season and this Leeds team in my opinion have better players.  

Edited by BenTheFox
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