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Sly

The Championship Thread 2023/2024

By Sly, in Leicester City Forum

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LCFCJohn

LCFCJohn

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Sorry, but Leeds winning three games more than us out of the 26 remaining is certainly not insurmountable, especially when we still have to play them at Elland Road! Leeds have more points at this stage than Burnley did last season and this Leeds in my opinion have better players.  

Given that we had a 14 point lead over them which is now 8, you’d think people would realise that we need to not be complacent and be putting timeframes on promotion etc. Given the record breaking points totals from us and Ipswich but also like you point out, Leeds themselves having more than teams that have been top and Southampton not far behind them, if we can get promoted that is all that matters, even if it is the last day of the season!

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Sorry, but Leeds winning three games more than us out of the 26 remaining is certainly not insurmountable, especially when we still have to play them at Elland Road! Leeds have more points at this stage than Burnley did last season and this Leeds in my opinion have better players.  

You are theoretically correct but our consistency across this season from game 1, shows how difficult it is for those behind us to catch us unless we drop off.

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ian__marshall

ian__marshall

Posted
Posted

Need to remind ourselves that Leeds and Ipswich play each other in a few weeks. One or both will drop points so as long as we pick up a win we'll open up a gap on one of them. I have a feeling the gap will widen anyway over the coming weeks. I'd be astonished if all 3 teams are able to maintain current form over the busy festive schedule, something has to give. 

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cruzFOX

cruzFOX

Posted
Posted

Ipswich has not had a proper slump yet something Leeds & saints had earlier in the season and for sure we’ve had for want of a better word. My feeling is Ipswich will  eventually drop off a little and Leeds will catch up with Southampton not far behind.

it is now upto Enzo and the boys to take stock and find new motivation to steam ahead. The games we have against our challengers at the minimum should be hard fought draws.

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:


3-4 games for Leeds to catch us, that’s not happening. All being well we will get automatic promotion done when we beat Birmingham City at home in April 2024.

 

32 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Sorry, but Leeds winning three games more than us out of the 26 remaining is certainly not insurmountable, especially when we still have to play them at Elland Road! Leeds have more points at this stage than Burnley did last season and this Leeds in my opinion have better players.  

 

25 minutes ago, LCFCJohn said:

Given that we had a 14 point lead over them which is now 8, you’d think people would realise that we need to not be complacent and be putting timeframes on promotion etc. Given the record breaking points totals from us and Ipswich but also like you point out, Leeds themselves having more than teams that have been top and Southampton not far behind them, if we can get promoted that is all that matters, even if it is the last day of the season!

Leicester and Ipswich who have 'overperformed' by 10.3 and 12.5 points, respectively.

Leeds meanwhile have only 'overperformed' by 1.9 points, so it's them who are 'where there should be'

 

One interpretation of this is that for Ipswich and Leicester, the only way is down; their form is not sustainable. Leeds 'only' need to have a period of overperformance of their own and/or Leicester/Ipswich to regress to 'normal' form, to overtake one or both rivals.

 

What's in Leeds favour is that they've played all 3 of the top 4 away and won 2 of those games. Having all 3 at home in the 2nd half of the season is handy.

 

Regardless, though the quality being set by the Top 4 is ridiculous and surely it can't be sustained across all those teams for much longer!?

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Pub breath

Pub breath

Posted
Posted
On 09/12/2023 at 17:34, coolhandfox said:

8 again...... lol

 

I think you are going to need 100 pts + to finish above us.

 

Even at 2 points a game  from here we are hitting 101 points. 

 

If we continue our form over the last 10 games with the dip we are going at 2.2 points per game we are matching the Championship record.

 

To get 107 form here you are going to need to go at 2.53 for the rest of the season, which is above your form in the last 10 and you have to do it for 26 games.

 

I will take a £100 charity bet we finish above you, loser donates the winnings to the winners prefer charity? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wasn't arguing for Leeds finishing above Leicester.  It was just a comment on the maths of it.

 

Another example of how easily things can change is that you have to come to ER.  We win that and it's just a 2 game swing.  The gap is significant but it isn't decisive at this point.  Our form is better than yours.

 

I still think Leicester will win the league but reckon the gap will be smaller than it is now, by May.

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

I wasn't arguing for Leeds finishing above Leicester.  It was just a comment on the maths of it.

 

Another example of how easily things can change is that you have to come to ER.  We win that and it's just a 2 game swing.  The gap is significant but it isn't decisive at this point.  Our form is better than yours.

 

I still think Leicester will win the league but reckon the gap will be smaller than it is now, by May.

Depends which group of games you arbitrarily use though.

  • 20 games: Leicester 49 points, 2.5ppg / Leeds 41 points, 2.1ppg
  • 12 games: Leicester 28 points, 2.3ppg / Leeds 28 points, 2.3ppg
  • 10 games: Leicester 22 points, 2.2pgg / Leeds 25 points, 2.5ppg
  • 5 games: Leicester 10 points, 2ppg / Leeds 13 points, 2.6ppg

So yes, marginally better form in the shorter term samples, same over long term and of course, crucially 8 points worse over the season

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

 

 

Leicester and Ipswich who have 'overperformed' by 10.3 and 12.5 points, respectively.

Leeds meanwhile have only 'overperformed' by 1.9 points, so it's them who are 'where there should be'

 

One interpretation of this is that for Ipswich and Leicester, the only way is down; their form is not sustainable. Leeds 'only' need to have a period of overperformance of their own and/or Leicester/Ipswich to regress to 'normal' form, to overtake one or both rivals.

 

What's in Leeds favour is that they've played all 3 of the top 4 away and won 2 of those games. Having all 3 at home in the 2nd half of the season is handy.

 

Regardless, though the quality being set by the Top 4 is ridiculous and surely it can't be sustained across all those teams for much longer!?

Overperforming xG (expected goals for the average player/team) can simply be an indicator of individual quality. Like Hermansen vastly exceeding his xGc (expected goals conceded), which I doubt will regress to the mean. A lot of that may be just a matter of player quality for us, rather than all luck. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if Leeds makes up the 8 point gap by the end of AFCON. 

 

Edited by brucey
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Pub breath

Pub breath

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Depends which group of games you arbitrarily use though.

  • 20 games: Leicester 49 points, 2.5ppg / Leeds 41 points, 2.1ppg
  • 12 games: Leicester 28 points, 2.3ppg / Leeds 28 points, 2.3ppg
  • 10 games: Leicester 22 points, 2.2pgg / Leeds 25 points, 2.5ppg
  • 5 games: Leicester 10 points, 2ppg / Leeds 13 points, 2.6ppg

So yes, marginally better form in the shorter term samples, same over long term and of course, crucially 8 points worse over the season

20 games is the season so can't really define form.  Form is a descriptive for recent results.

 

Both of the two groups of game numbers that are the most recent in your examples, Leeds are superior.  

 

I'd say that does a decent job of highlighting that our form is better tbf.

 

As was discussed earlier, extrapolations of either of those over the rest of the season sees us reel you in.  I'm just not sure it's likely in reality.

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Lambert09

Lambert09

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, weller54 said:

Cmon you lovely Hornets!!...

Fancy them to win tonight.

Deeney with a brace!

you may well know this, but i randomly stumbled on the fact he plays for forest green rovers earlier in the season. 

 

Fair play to the guy if he doesn’t want to quit 

Edited by Lambert09
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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

20 games is the season so can't really define form.  Form is a descriptive for recent results.

 

Both of the two groups of game numbers that are the most recent in your examples, Leeds are superior.  

 

I'd say that does a decent job of highlighting that our form is better tbf.

 

As was discussed earlier, extrapolations of either of those over the rest of the season sees us reel you in.  I'm just not sure it's likely in reality.

It also shows that it's basically the first 4 games that did it. 

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

20 games is the season so can't really define form.  Form is a descriptive for recent results.

 

Both of the two groups of game numbers that are the most recent in your examples, Leeds are superior.  

 

I'd say that does a decent job of highlighting that our form is better tbf.

 

As was discussed earlier, extrapolations of either of those over the rest of the season sees us reel you in.  I'm just not sure it's likely in reality.

Yes. I literally said "marginally better form in the shorter term samples" 

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Corky

Corky

Posted
Posted

Should also take into consideration the change of mindset when positions change. At the moment Leeds and Southampton have everything to gain, if they get to the top two there is then something to lose.

 

Huge shift mentally.

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Paninistickers

Paninistickers

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Pub breath said:

20 games is the season so can't really define form.  Form is a descriptive for recent results.

 

Both of the two groups of game numbers that are the most recent in your examples, Leeds are superior.  

 

I'd say that does a decent job of highlighting that our form is better tbf.

 

As was discussed earlier, extrapolations of either of those over the rest of the season sees us reel you in.  I'm just not sure it's likely in reality.

Clearly we are gonna be cautious of over confidence, but if we got toppled, we haven't seen an 'angry' Leicester yet. It's all been super controlled. Over controlled in many people's eyes. I don't think any team would be comfortable being chased by us. 

 

I think Leeds' crosshairs are firmly lined up on Ipswich, even if Ipswich overtake us. 

 

Fwiw, I'd be amazed if Leicester and Leeds aren't 1 & 2 come the end of season, just on players alone, we both have too much

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Benji

Benji

Posted
Posted

Why do people worry about fans being complacent?  Big Dave in Narborough shouting off online that we're going to win the league by 20 points isn't going to impact anything.  So long as the players and manager stay grounded we're fine.

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