fuchsntf Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) 22 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I think 94 points will be enough for Autos. I don't see Leeds and Ipswich improving their run-rate much from here. The big thing will be us vs Southampton for the title, I think. Their huge run can't be ignore, for what it gains them psychologically. But our head start / gap is obviously in our favour. And I'd rather us lose a few games here and there and win more than them. Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think Southampton will close the gap between games 33 and 38 and then we'll pull away again in the final 8 matches, to sneak it I am so grateful when poster's throw up these lists, with stats.. Makes the comparisons interesting and put certain stress factors or stumbling blocks... I do believe. ALL 4 TEAMS will do unexpected well and keep their form, but now, the others whoever they are can make Hay if 1-2 teams just lose 1 game or draw 1-3. Leicester just have that bigger playroom. Plus I reckon Ipswich have had their wobble.. A lot running on their game this weekend (WBA).. They win this.. Massive confidence booster.. Then a reasonable smooth run. Edited 8 February by fuchsntf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suffolk fox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February Ifs buts and maybes. Tis simple match Southamptons results and we will be champions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February Popular Post Share Posted 8 February Another quick analysis - fixtures highlighted by each team's current quartile position Leeds and Ipswich have a much easier next 8 games than us and Southampton. Ipswich: 7/8 vs bottom half Leeds: 7/8 vs bottom half Leicester: 2/8 vs bottom half Southampton: 4/8 vs bottom half 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Flair Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 1 hour ago, Pliskin said: I hope so, they’re just unrelenting at the moment, looking back they’ve had a very favourable run but they’ve not tripped once. I just worry that we’re more susceptible to a slip up than they are. We've at least a 3 game slip head start on them, but hopefully it won't come down to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTheFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 11 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said: I’m happy to come back on here and be corrected in 3 months but there’s absolutely no way Leeds or Ipswich get 98 points. Leeds would need 38 points from 48 and Ipswich 39 from 51. Absolutely massive if we can avoid defeat at Leeds. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Leeds do. Looking at their fixtures, them winning twelve games and drawing two is completely plausible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fazzyfox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February When you also factor in that if it is Southampton and Leeds that are the main chasers they meet on the final day and can't both get 3 points, being just a point ahead of both with far superior GD at that stage means we could lose and still be guaranteed promotion if not the top spot. Similarly on one match day either Ipswich or Southampton drop points when they play each other. They can say the same about us Vs Leeds and Southampton but our results are in our hands. Looking forward to the home game with Southampton, just hope it's not moved to silly o'clock like Sunday lunchtime or a Monday night, no doubt they'll want to show it and I can understand the justification but maybe a Saturday 17:30 KO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langston Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 3 minutes ago, fazzyfox said: When you also factor in that if it is Southampton and Leeds that are the main chasers they meet on the final day and can't both get 3 points, being just a point ahead of both with far superior GD at that stage means we could lose and still be guaranteed promotion if not the top spot. Similarly on one match day either Ipswich or Southampton drop points when they play each other. They can say the same about us Vs Leeds and Southampton but our results are in our hands. Looking forward to the home game with Southampton, just hope it's not moved to silly o'clock like Sunday lunchtime or a Monday night, no doubt they'll want to show it and I can understand the justification but maybe a Saturday 17:30 KO? I'd imagine it'd be a Friday night job if (when) it's moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARM1968 Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February Just a matter of removing hope from the chasing pack 1 game at a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunbury Fox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February Leeds and Southampton are playing Rotherham and Huddersfield AGAIN this weekend!!! Surely, someone in authority will notice this soon?! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purpleronnie Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 1 minute ago, Sunbury Fox said: Leeds and Southampton are playing Rotherham and Huddersfield AGAIN this weekend!!! Surely, someone in authority will notice this soon?! I believe rotherham fans are boycotting the leeds match due to the prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BertFill Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 49 minutes ago, Langston said: I'd imagine it'd be a Friday night job if (when) it's moved. Christ I hope not. We never do well against Southampton on a Friday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ithuriel Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February Well, we've lost 4 games all season, drew 3 with just a third of the season left, if we we're to lose 2, draw 2 of our remaining games we would still land on 110 points. Southampton, if they we're to do the same would hit 102. Leeds and Ipswich are too close to each other to call, Leeds having lost more games but drew less than Ipswich. Certainly going to be interesting, especially as teams will now be more cautious of all the top 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajthefox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February I think most of us are guilty of looking quite far ahead no matter the year, but it is interesting how being so far ahead (and on pace for a record) at an early stage massively amps up the projection/stats games people play. It's all good harmless fun, but it does amuse me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox 4 Life Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: Another quick analysis - fixtures highlighted by each team's current quartile position Leeds and Ipswich have a much easier next 8 games than us and Southampton. Ipswich: 7/8 vs bottom half Leeds: 7/8 vs bottom half Leicester: 2/8 vs bottom half Southampton: 4/8 vs bottom half I hadn't appreciated how hard our remaining fixtures were, the buffer will definitely be key here. Still many winnable games though and on our day we beat anyone in the league, just need to keep the consistency up. That stretch of games against Leeds, Hull, Sunderland and Soton will be massive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCFCCKEANO Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) 2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: Another quick analysis - fixtures highlighted by each team's current quartile position Leeds and Ipswich have a much easier next 8 games than us and Southampton. Ipswich: 7/8 vs bottom half Leeds: 7/8 vs bottom half Leicester: 2/8 vs bottom half Southampton: 4/8 vs bottom half Get through Southampton home with some level of gap and we look good, that run in is not bad at all, lot of teams that will have nothing to play for Edited 8 February by LCFCCKEANO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Fresh Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 3 hours ago, Pliskin said: I hope so, they’re just unrelenting at the moment, looking back they’ve had a very favourable run but they’ve not tripped once. I just worry that we’re more susceptible to a slip up than they are. Yeah they've done well, but just pointing out they do have a fairly tough run before April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxdiamond Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February You can drive yourself potty looking into the ifs and buts of all these fixtures. Did enough of that in 2016. Basically if we are good enough we will go up as Champions or 2nd at worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretPro Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 8 minutes ago, Foxdiamond said: You can drive yourself potty looking into the ifs and buts of all these fixtures. Did enough of that in 2016. Basically if we are good enough we will go up as Champions or 2nd at worse. If I did look into Buts I'd probably be arrested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surrifox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February The chasing pack will gradually improve as the chance of a playoff place becomes a real possibility and there will be at least one going on a mad unbeaten run towards the end of April where they can compete with and match the high flyers . The matrices which use past form to predict likely future outcomes can never factor this variable in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol thewall Bamba Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I think 94 points will be enough for Autos. I don't see Leeds and Ipswich improving their run-rate much from here. The big thing will be us vs Southampton for the title, I think. Their huge run can't be ignored, for what it gains them psychologically. (Having said that, their 21 game unbeaten run has only gained them 3 points more than us - 51 vs 48 points) But our head start / gap is obviously in our favour. And I'd rather us lose a few games here and there and win more than them. Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think Southampton will close the gap between games 33 and 38 and then we'll pull away again in the final 8 matches, to sneak it Even if Southampton win every game from now to game 38 and we win each game but lose to Leeds and Southampton, we'll be on 90 points to their 88. Heck, if we do something like W11 D3 L2 (vs Leeds and Southampton), we'd finish on 108 points, which Southampton can only better by going unbeaten for the rest of the season, winning 15+ of their remaining 17 games. Is it possible to do maximums for each of the sides taking into account that a lot still have to play each other? A lot of people will just take the remaining games for each team and times them all by three and add that to their current total, but obviously that doesn't work when Saints play Leeds, we play Saints etc. Would be interesting to see the "best" and "worst" outcomes from those head to head games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol thewall Bamba Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 19 minutes ago, LCFCCKEANO said: Get through Southampton home with some level of gap and we look good, that run in is not bad at all, lot of teams that will have nothing to play for Norwich and West Brom will likely still be pushing for playoffs by that point, so they will be tricky games. The rest fingers crossed will be on the beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingsX Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I think 94 points will be enough for Autos. I don't see Leeds and Ipswich improving their run-rate much from here. The big thing will be us vs Southampton for the title, I think. Their huge run can't be ignored, for what it gains them psychologically. (Having said that, their 21 game unbeaten run has only gained them 3 points more than us - 51 vs 48 points) But our head start / gap is obviously in our favour. And I'd rather us lose a few games here and there and win more than them. Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think Southampton will close the gap between games 33 and 38 and then we'll pull away again in the final 8 matches, to sneak it Even if Southampton win every game from now to game 38 and we win each game but lose to Leeds and Southampton, we'll be on 90 points to their 88. Heck, if we do something like W11 D3 L2 (vs Leeds and Southampton), we'd finish on 108 points, which Southampton can only better by going unbeaten for the rest of the season, winning 15+ of their remaining 17 games. I come to the same conclusion as you: it really could take 94 points to avoid the playoffs. If just two of the three chasers run at 2 PPG from here on in, which doesn’t seem far-fetched at all, third place will be on about 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruzFOX Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February We shouldn’t fear anyone including the chasing pack. We’ve earned our way at the top and and have to hold that confidence. yes of course by all means respect Southampton, leads and Ipswich as they are good teams and when they play us bring an extra level of intensity. We have to match that now that we know their games. they are a known quantity to Enzo now so I expect Enzo to by much better prepared for those 3 teams when we play them. i can’t wait and I hope we beat them so there is no doubt who the champions will be at the end of this season. Let’s get the job done COYF! 👊🏾 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 4 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said: Is it possible to do maximums for each of the sides taking into account that a lot still have to play each other? A lot of people will just take the remaining games for each team and times them all by three and add that to their current total, but obviously that doesn't work when Saints play Leeds, we play Saints etc. Would be interesting to see the "best" and "worst" outcomes from those head to head games. I'm sure it's possible but I can't be bothered to figure out how! I think it's reassuring to think that current run-rate is: Leicester - 110.4 pts Southampton 96.8 pts Ipswich - 93.6 pts Leeds - 92 pts Leicester still have Southampton and Leeds to play Southampton have to play all 3 of us Leeds have both Leicester and Southampton Ipswich only have Southampton That's 4 fixtures where we'll all take points off each other Either way, I think it's between Game 30 and 38 that'll be most influential. Southampton are likely to close the gap to virtually nothing, and if they beat us in the final game of that stretch it'll be how who holds their nerve in the run in. But if Southampton drop points in that run and we don't blink (much) then it might be all a bit academic by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol thewall Bamba Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 9 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I'm sure it's possible but I can't be bothered to figure out how! I think it's reassuring to think that current run-rate is: Leicester - 110.4 pts Southampton 96.8 pts Ipswich - 93.6 pts Leeds - 92 pts Leicester still have Southampton and Leeds to play Southampton have to play all 3 of us Leeds have both Leicester and Southampton Ipswich only have Southampton That's 4 fixtures where we'll all take points off each other Either way, I think it's between Game 30 and 38 that'll be most influential. Southampton are likely to close the gap to virtually nothing, and if they beat us in the final game of that stretch it'll be how who holds their nerve in the run in. But if Southampton drop points in that run and we don't blink (much) then it might be all a bit academic by that point. Just using the current ppg rate isn't accurate though. Because that takes into account Saints' dreadful start and projects that across the remaining games. We probably won't pull away any further from them, and there's a good chance they'll narrow the gap between now and the end of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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