Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) 17 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I'm sure it's possible but I can't be bothered to figure out how! I think it's reassuring to think that current run-rate is: Leicester - 110.4 pts Southampton 96.8 pts Ipswich - 93.6 pts Leeds - 92 pts Leicester still have Southampton and Leeds to play Southampton have to play all 3 of us Leeds have both Leicester and Southampton Ipswich only have Southampton That's 4 fixtures where we'll all take points off each other Either way, I think it's between Game 30 and 38 that'll be most influential. Southampton are likely to close the gap to virtually nothing, and if they beat us in the final game of that stretch it'll be how who holds their nerve in the run in. But if Southampton drop points in that run and we don't blink (much) then it might be all a bit academic by that point. 6 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said: Just using the current ppg rate isn't accurate though. Because that takes into account Saints' dreadful start and projects that across the remaining games. We probably won't pull away any further from them, and there's a good chance they'll narrow the gap between now and the end of the season. I did say ^^^ Also Southampton's "dreadful start" is overstated. They lost 4 in a row, sure. But haven't lost since. And we've lost 4 times too. The only difference between us and Southampton is 3 draws vs 7 draws And yes, season long run rates are a blunt instrument. Just the same as run rates for shorter periods of form, which are 'worse' for being less reflective of any sort of pattern. Neither are predictive Edited 8 February by Les-TA-Jon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTheFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 1 minute ago, Sol thewall Bamba said: Just using the current ppg rate isn't accurate though. Because that takes into account Saints' dreadful start and projects that across the remaining games. We probably won't pull away any further from them, and there's a good chance they'll narrow the gap between now and the end of the season. Agreed. PPG up until this stage is irrelevant when predicting what's required to win promotion considering that Southampton are completely different beast now compared to September and that the fixture lists differ for each team. I'm looking at Leeds's fixture list and I really can't see them dropping many points. I'd be surprised if they only manage 2ppg for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol thewall Bamba Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) 26 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I did say ^^^ Also Southampton's "dreadful start" is overstated. They lost 4 in a row, sure. But haven't lost since. And we've lost 4 times too. The only difference between us and Southampton is 3 draws vs 7 draws And yes, season long run rates are a blunt instrument. Just the same as run rates for shorter periods of form, which are 'worse' for being less reflective of any sort of pattern. Neither are predictive Took a stab at it on a scrap of paper, basically if you want to win the league, Leeds or Ipswich winning all their games gives the lowest "minimum" to guarantee winning the league (we'd need 109). If you just want to be promoted automatically, Saints winning all their games supresses the "minimum" required to finish 2nd down to 105. Edited 8 February by Sol thewall Bamba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosbehFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 4 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: Another quick analysis - fixtures highlighted by each team's current quartile position Leeds and Ipswich have a much easier next 8 games than us and Southampton. Ipswich: 7/8 vs bottom half Leeds: 7/8 vs bottom half Leicester: 2/8 vs bottom half Southampton: 4/8 vs bottom half Thing is though those games start to become harder around about now as the bottom bunch fight to avoid relegation. Someone like Birmingham and Swansea are likely to click soon under a new manager 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambert09 Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) Breakdown of EFL Championship Prize Money Per Position Position Prize Money (in GBP) 1st £5,000,000 2nd £3,500,000 3rd £2,500,000 4th £1,800,000 5th £1,200,000 6th £900,000 7th £700,000 8th £500,000 9th £400,000 10th £300,000 11th £200,000 12th £150,000 13th £100,000 14th £80,000 15th £60,000 16th £50,000 17th £40,000 18th £30,000 19th £20,000 20th £15,000 21st £10,000 22nd £8,000 23rd £6,000 24th £4,000 Given we might have a tight summer, it’s well worth ensuring we hit first place. Edited 8 February by Lambert09 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 12 minutes ago, CosbehFox said: Thing is though those games start to become harder around about now as the bottom bunch fight to avoid relegation. Someone like Birmingham and Swansea are likely to click soon under a new manager Oh for sure. Those categorisations will chance week by week too. Relegation threatened teams likely to play better/harder in this end of the season, likewise for promotion hopefuls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 8 minutes ago, Lambert09 said: Breakdown of EFL Championship Prize Money Per Position Position Prize Money (in GBP) 1st £5,000,000 2nd £3,500,000 3rd £2,500,000 4th £1,800,000 5th £1,200,000 6th £900,000 7th £700,000 8th £500,000 9th £400,000 10th £300,000 11th £200,000 12th £150,000 13th £100,000 14th £80,000 15th £60,000 16th £50,000 17th £40,000 18th £30,000 19th £20,000 20th £15,000 21st £10,000 22nd £8,000 23rd £6,000 24th £4,000 Seems crazy to me that the top 2 get 48% of the prize money given that they get promoted! Wouldn't it be better to not award anything to the 3 promoted sides, and then share it out amongst the other 21? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambert09 Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) 5 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said: Seems crazy to me that the top 2 get 48% of the prize money given that they get promoted! Wouldn't it be better to not award anything to the 3 promoted sides, and then share it out amongst the other 21? on paper that sounds nice, but considering the team finishing 17th in the prem is getting 9m that’s not really fair. The gap between the finances is already big enough, so whilst that sounds charitable, it makes the promoted clubs task ahead even harder Edited 8 February by Lambert09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goose2010 Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 4k for finishing bottom is an insult! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February Wow that disparity is insanely unfair 4k...what's the point. Divide that between all 24 and throw in a little extra to top it up and each team could get 750k for being part of the league. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowlattsFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February You get some funny results at this stage of the season. The bottom teams usually find a bit of form somewhere so you'll probably drop points where you're not expecting too. Concentrate on our own job and we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTheFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February (edited) These two don't rile me up as much as they do many of our fans, but this is a particularly horrendous take. Scrapping parachute payments would do so much more harm than good. Edited 8 February by BenTheFox 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February I'm still feeling pretty confident in our lead - give southampton a win in their game in hand, but with our GD - they have to win the equivalent of 3 games more than us out of a possible 16 games to overtake us (all other things remaining equal) We have a win rate of 76.6% this is season - if we maintain that for the rest of the season that would be 12 wins, that would mean that southampton would have to win 15 of 16. At their current win rate they're due to win 10. Not saying it's impossible, but they are now reliant on us underperforming, results wise, whilst not just sustaining but possibly even improving their own results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ealingfox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 33 minutes ago, BenTheFox said: These two don't rile me up as much as they do many of our fans, but this is a particularly horrendous take. Scrapping parachute payments would do so much more harm than good. Some proper morons in the comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RonnieTodger Posted 8 February Popular Post Share Posted 8 February It’s like fans think we used Parachute Payments to assemble this expensive squad. Forget the 9 seasons in the Premier League. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTheFox Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 16 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said: It’s like fans think we used Parachute Payments to assemble this expensive squad. Forget the 9 seasons in the Premier League. This season is an outlier. We were playing in Europe two years ago, Southampton had over a decade in the Premier league and Leeds spent a lot on players before going down and are arguably the biggest club in this division. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 8 February Share Posted 8 February 33 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said: It’s like fans think we used Parachute Payments to assemble this expensive squad. Forget the 9 seasons in the Premier League. We also sold £90 odd million worth of players in the summer. Two of the most expensive players in our squad joined in 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deeg67 Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 16 hours ago, purpleronnie said: I believe rotherham fans are boycotting the leeds match due to the prices. If you were a Rotherham fan, would you want to watch them play? Sounds like an excuse to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koke Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February Rotherham are a tiny club punching well above their weight. It'll always be a struggle for them at this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koke Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 9 hours ago, BenTheFox said: These two don't rile me up as much as they do many of our fans, but this is a particularly horrendous take. Scrapping parachute payments would do so much more harm than good. Thi ****ing nonsense again??? I can't wait to get out this league. How many times does it have to be explained to them that Leicester and Southampton sold players for nearly £100m. And Leeds have a netspend of £1.5m or something low like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purpleronnie Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 2 hours ago, Deeg67 said: If you were a Rotherham fan, would you want to watch them play? Sounds like an excuse to me. Not for £45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 2 hours ago, Deeg67 said: If you were a Rotherham fan, would you want to watch them play? Sounds like an excuse to me. If I were a Rotherham fan of course I’d want to watch them play! That’s what being a fan is! It couldn’t possibly be enough is enough of your precious Leeds United ripping people off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paninistickers Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 17 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said: I'm sure it's possible but I can't be bothered to figure out how! I think it's reassuring to think that current run-rate is: Leicester - 110.4 pts Southampton 96.8 pts Ipswich - 93.6 pts Leeds - 92 pts Leicester still have Southampton and Leeds to play Southampton have to play all 3 of us Leeds have both Leicester and Southampton Ipswich only have Southampton That's 4 fixtures where we'll all take points off each other Either way, I think it's between Game 30 and 38 that'll be most influential. Southampton are likely to close the gap to virtually nothing, and if they beat us in the final game of that stretch it'll be how who holds their nerve in the run in. But if Southampton drop points in that run and we don't blink (much) then it might be all a bit academic by that point. My take when teams get to the business end under pressure is a) it helps to simply be the best and/or b) to be able to rely on a very specific, robotic tactical set up drilled in. We probably have both. Southampton probably have both. Ipswich have the belief in their system. Leeds play blood and guts on ability. On that basis, I'd expect us and saints to emerge by some distance in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolhandfox Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February Us or Leeds are likely to be the first championship club to break the 100m tunover barrier Taking away the parachute payment would cut that tunover by around 50% Anyone who thinks it's not an advantage need to give there head a wobble. We would have seen a bigger fire sale, KDH and Faes would have been sold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aus Fox Posted 9 February Share Posted 9 February 6 minutes ago, coolhandfox said: Us or Leeds are likely to be the first championship club to break the 100m tunover barrier Taking away the parachute payment would cut that tunover by around 50% Anyone who thinks it's not an advantage need to give there head a wobble. We would have seen a bigger fire sale, KDH and Faes would have been sold. Whilst I agree, the problem is for clubs who can't sell those players. Every player needs a buyer and if they don’t come in they are going under. Now it’s all well and good saying don’t spend it in the first place, but if you don’t you simply cannot compete in the top flight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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