Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 13 hours ago, Paninistickers said: Might do the same. Lump a juicy 500 on. If we end up top 2, it'll be 500 well spent. Basically just doubling my season ticket. Worth every penny. **** it up, a tasty 3.5k compo. Edit, I did the same prior to Burnley away in the last promotion campaign. Worth every penny. Odds do seem generous, surely its already shrunk by now lol, bookies usually super tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oasisedup Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 3 hours ago, Chrysalis said: Odds do seem generous, surely its already shrunk by now lol, bookies usually super tight. Generous? If you wanted to bet on us to go up with that firm, the best odds you can find is 1/20. An implied probability of 95%. 7/1 for us to not go up automatically is an implied probability of 12.5%. 7/1 is not really generous at all. Fans seem to be significantly underestimating our prospects, which is perhaps not surprising given collapses of recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March (edited) 3 minutes ago, Oasisedup said: Generous? If you wanted to bet on us to go up with that firm, the best odds you can find is 1/20. An implied probability of 95%. 7/1 for us to not go up automatically is an implied probability of 12.5%. 7/1 is not really generous at all. Fans seem to be significantly underestimating our prospects, which is perhaps not surprising given collapses of recent years. By their standards it seems generous to me. I was expecting something like maybe 2/1 at best. The 1/20 for going up is more in line with what I would expect. Of course the combined odds show they have their house advantage bedded in. Edited 11 March by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeseHead Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 5 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: By their standards it seems generous to me. I was expecting something like maybe 2/1 at best. The 1/20 for going up is more in line with what I would expect. Of course the combined odds show they have their house advantage bedded in. Anyone who is absolutely convinced that we will drop into the playoffs will definitely feel that 7/1 is generous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March Just now, CheeseHead said: Anyone who is absolutely convinced that we will drop into the playoffs will definitely feel that 7/1 is generous! I dont think you need to be convinced its happening. But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now. Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeseHead Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 1 minute ago, Chrysalis said: I dont think you need to be convinced its happening. But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now. Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds. So you'll be lumping on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 1 minute ago, CheeseHead said: So you'll be lumping on? I have been known to throw the occasional small bet every few years, but I dont have a skybet account and cant be bothered to make one. Last one I think was on shakespeare getting sacked which was similar odds to this and I felt they had the odds ridiculously loose. That one was a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeseHead Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 1 minute ago, Chrysalis said: I have been known to throw the occasional small bet every few years, but I dont have a skybet account and cant be bothered to make one. Last one I think was on shakespeare getting sacked which was similar odds to this and I felt they had the odds ridiculously loose. That one was a win. If I honestly believed it was 50-50, I would be lumping on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March (edited) 1 minute ago, CheeseHead said: If I honestly believed it was 50-50, I would be lumping on! I will if bet365 (or betfair, I think have an account) offer the same bet. But only a small bet, I am not really someone who bets anything more than very small sums every now and then. Edited 11 March by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazly Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March There are now 4 sides odds on to be promoted this season, who would figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STEVIE B Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March (edited) 3 minutes ago, Bazly said: There are now 4 sides odds on to be promoted this season, who would figure? Are you sure that's correct ? Edited 11 March by STEVIE B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chelmofox Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 6 minutes ago, STEVIE B said: Are you sure that's correct ? This is how Betfair Exchange has it. Southampton and Ipswich above evens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filbertway Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 5 hours ago, Chrysalis said: I dont think you need to be convinced its happening. But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now. Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds. Sorry, but 50/50 would be evens and not 2/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 11 March Share Posted 11 March 2 minutes ago, filbertway said: Sorry, but 50/50 would be evens and not 2/1 Even better then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number 6 Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March Updated Opta projections showing about a 91% chance of automatic promotion. Still high but obviously has dropped a lot over the last 5 weeks. Find the fixture difficulty ratings interesting. Southampton got a lot of tough games and a lot of games just in general! Championship Predictions: Can Leeds Overhaul Leicester at the Top of the Table? https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trugerkem Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest leatherhead32 Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March 25 minutes ago, trugerkem said: Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 very good tip . i cashed out 2 days pre leeds at 600 rather than seeing if we won title and get 770 due to cash in hand rather than feeling anger at any of our lads ( i support at matches moaning never does any good) but your heads up worth nipping back to bookies . cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambert09 Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March 2 hours ago, trugerkem said: Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 what about southampton still think they are more likely than ipswich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trugerkem Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March Please gamble responsibly 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrankieADZ Posted 12 March Share Posted 12 March Boro with a third win on the bounce, quiet the battle for 6th in the league, 5 points between 6th and 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester_Loyal Posted 13 March Share Posted 13 March 2 hours ago, FrankieADZ said: Boro with a third win on the bounce, quiet the battle for 6th in the league, 5 points between 6th and 11th They also still have to play Leeds, Ipswich and Saints, be nice if they take at least 4 points from those 3 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan LCFC Posted 13 March Share Posted 13 March They're a strange side Middlesbrough. Their ceiling on their day is pretty high. Definitely a side who could take points off one of those three. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Flair Posted 14 March Share Posted 14 March On 13/03/2024 at 02:17, Dan LCFC said: They're a strange side Middlesbrough. Their ceiling on their day is pretty high. Definitely a side who could take points off one of those three. They seem to be much more dangerous this season by not dictating play, we've seen this before with teams that can't break down teams themselves except those who won't sit back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxmeister Posted 15 March Share Posted 15 March On 11/03/2024 at 18:15, Bazly said: There are now 4 sides odds on to be promoted this season, who would figure? That actually makes sense 2 of the 4 will definitely go up and the other 2 will be the first 2 in the betting for the play-offs. Were it a random 3 from 4 then each club would be 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 15 March Share Posted 15 March (edited) On 12/03/2024 at 14:05, trugerkem said: Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 Problem with that, it requires both to fall in place that order. ut the odds arent bad as well, also tempting. Edited 15 March by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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