How are we getting on, compared to previous Championship winners.

[Sly]

Okay 1/5th (20%) of the season has now gone, on what is hopefully our holiday to the Championship.  

 

I've pulled some data together, just to see how we compare for average points per game, goals for and against, then expected goal difference after 46 games. 

 

Currently we're averaging 2.67 points per game, which is incredible. If we keep that up we'd be on for 123 points! 

 

Incidentally, Ipswich   are averaging out at 112 points, Preston are on for 102. 

 

Key:

 

GF - Goals For

GA - Goals Against

GD - Goal Difference

xGD46 - Expected Goal difference after 46 games

Av Point - Mean average points 

Av GF - Mean average goals for

Av GA - Mean average goals against

 

Year	Team	Games	Points	GF	GA	GD	xGD46	Av Points	Av GF	Av GA
23/24	Leicester City	9	24	18	6	12.00	61.33	2.67	2.00	0.67
23/24	Ipswich Town	9	22	18	11	7.00	35.78	2.44	2.00	1.22
23/24	Preston North End	9	20	13	10	3.00	15.33	2.22	1.44	1.11
22/23	Burnley	46	101	87	35	52.00	52.00	2.20	1.89	0.76
21/22	Fulham	46	90	106	43	63.00	63.00	1.96	2.30	0.93
20/21	Norwich City	46	97	75	39	36.00	36.00	2.11	1.63	0.85
19/20	Leeds United	46	93	77	35	42.00	42.00	2.02	1.67	0.76
18/19	Norwich City	46	94	93	57	36.00	36.00	2.04	2.02	1.24
17/18	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	99	82	39	43.00	43.00	2.15	1.78	0.85
16/17	Newcastle United	46	94	85	40	45.00	45.00	2.04	1.85	0.87
15/16	Burnley	46	93	72	35	37.00	37.00	2.02	1.57	0.76
14/15	Bournemouth	46	90	98	45	53.00	53.00	1.96	2.13	0.98
13/14	Leicester City	46	102	83	43	40.00	40.00	2.22	1.80	0.93
12/13	Cardiff City	46	87	72	45	27.00	27.00	1.89	1.57	0.98
11/12	Reading	46	89	69	41	28.00	28.00	1.93	1.50	0.89
10/11	Queens Park Rangers	46	88	71	32	39.00	39.00	1.91	1.54	0.70
09/10	Newcastle United	46	102	90	35	55.00	55.00	2.22	1.96	0.76
08/09	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	90	80	52	28.00	28.00	1.96	1.74	1.13
07/08	West Bromwich Albion	46	81	88	55	33.00	33.00	1.76	1.91	1.20
06/07	Sunderland	46	88	76	47	29.00	29.00	1.91	1.65	1.02
05/06	Reading	46	106	99	32	67.00	67.00	2.30	2.15	0.70
04/05	Sunderland	46	94	75	41	34.00	34.00	2.04	1.63	0.89
03/04	Norwich City	46	94	79	39	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.72	0.85
02/03	Portsmouth	46	98	97	45	52.00	52.00	2.13	2.11	0.98
01/02	Manchester City	46	99	108	52	56.00	56.00	2.15	2.35	1.13
00/01	Fulham	46	101	90	32	58.00	58.00	2.20	1.96	0.70
99/00	Charlton Athletic	46	91	79	45	34.00	34.00	1.98	1.72	0.98
98/99	Sunderland	46	105	91	28	63.00	63.00	2.28	1.98	0.61
97/98	Nottingham Forest	46	94	82	42	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.78	0.91
96/98	Bolton Wanderers	46	98	100	53	47.00	47.00	2.13	2.17	1.15
95/96	Sunderland	46	83	59	33	26.00	26.00	1.80	1.28	0.72
94/95	Middlesbrough	46	82	67	40	27.00	27.00	1.78	1.46	0.87
93/94	Crystal Palace	46	90	73	46	27.00	27.00	1.96	1.59	1.00

 

Any box in green, means they out performed how we are doing this season.  

 

I'll update it as the season goes on, if people are interested. 

 

 

[MattFox]

xG seems to be an Interesting indicator of how a promoted team will do the following season 

 

Any team below 45.00 has struggled to stay up the following season

 

Only real exception is Wolves 17/18 who spent a lot 

 

(I know Leeds stayed up too but playing in empty stadiums means the league was different to usual)

Edited 1 October 2023 by MattFox

[Sir Shep]

Would love to beat readings total of 106 which lets face it was bloody brilliant. Then there was the best championship team ever in wolves who got 99 points which Sky seemed to think makes them the best of the best so beat that and we may settle for second best! 

[Sly]

4 minutes ago, MattFox said:

xG seems to be an Interesting indicator of how a promoted team will do the following season 

 

Any team below 45.00 has struggled to stay up the following season

 

Only real exception is Wolves 17/18 who spent a lot 

I thought exactly this, when I was looking at the two Norwich promotions, compared to Fulham. 

[Sly]

2 minutes ago, Sir Shep said:

Would love to beat readings total of 106 which lets face it was bloody brilliant. Then there was the best championship team ever in wolves who got 99 points which Sky seemed to think makes them the best of the best so beat that and we may settle for second best! 

Yes, I was thinking about Reading, and how our defence compared when I pulled the data. 
 

That Reading team was phenomenal really. 

[MattFox]

42 minutes ago, Sly said:

I thought exactly this, when I was looking at the two Norwich promotions, compared to Fulham. 

13/14 is an Interesting one I’d imagine we’re weighed down by the fact we didn’t really motor ahead until December of that season

 

But equally it’s the best performance from a non relegated side since Reading in 05/06

 

We arguably set the standard for the next decade in terms of how to win the Championship 

Edited 1 October 2023 by MattFox

[StriderHiryu]

44 minutes ago, Sir Shep said:

Would love to beat readings total of 106 which lets face it was bloody brilliant. Then there was the best championship team ever in wolves who got 99 points which Sky seemed to think makes them the best of the best so beat that and we may settle for second best! 

Honestly, we should be beating that. This is a Premier League team in all but name. We have at least 4 starters that would 100% start every week for midtable clubs in the Premier League in Ricardo, Ndidi, KDH and Winks. Possibly Iheanacho, Hermansen, Vestergaard and Mavididi would too. It's frankly unfair for the rest of the division, and it says it all that many of us think that Blackburn were the best team we've played so far, we didn't play that well, and we've still come away 4-1 winners.

 

We shouldn't take anything for granted, and the mental side is the biggest battle because it's easy for complacency to set it. But in terms of player level, we've got a team that is disproportionally stronger than anyone other than maybe Leeds.

[Foxdiamond]

Ever since Colin Appleton was persuaded to practice collecting the cup I think all Leicester fans should guard against counting our chickens. 

[Chrysalis]

My issue is that we have required this insane level of form, and for that we just have a 4 point margin to 3rd, long season ahead still and we need to maintain the form, crazy stuff.

[Heathrow fox]

1 hour ago, Foxdiamond said:

Ever since Colin Appleton was persuaded to practice collecting the cup I think all Leicester fans should guard against counting our chickens. 

I would normally urge caution.Not this season with this squad.I thought we may struggle with a manager who I believed was too clever for his own good.I presumed that Winks would be very much on the down hill,when infact he is still the normal Harry Winks and that’s all you need in this league.I thought Vardy was shot and that the likes of Ndidi would be long gone.

This squad walks this league by Valentine’s Day,If not then I think Easter is early next year?Biggest concern is boredom and keeping concentration levels high.Shouldn’t be a problem as all he has to do is shake things up a bit with the countless options he has at his disposal 

[majaco]

3 hours ago, Sly said:

Okay 1/5th (20%) of the season has now gone, on what is hopefully our holiday to the Championship.  

 

I've pulled some data together, just to see how we compare for average points per game, goals for and against, then expected goal difference after 46 games. 

 

Currently we're averaging 2.67 points per game, which is incredible. If we keep that up we'd be on for 123 points! 

 

Incidentally, Ipswich   are averaging out at 112 points, Preston are on for 102. 

 

Key:

 

GF - Goals For

GA - Goals Against

GD - Goal Difference

xGD46 - Expected Goal difference after 46 games

Av Point - Mean average points 

Av GF - Mean average goals for

Av GA - Mean average goals against

 

 

Year	Team	Games	Points	GF	GA	GD	xGD46	Av Points	Av GF	Av GA
23/24	Leicester City	9	24	18	6	12.00	61.33	2.67	2.00	0.67
23/24	Ipswich Town	9	22	18	11	7.00	35.78	2.44	2.00	1.22
23/24	Preston North End	9	20	13	10	3.00	15.33	2.22	1.44	1.11
22/23	Burnley	46	101	87	35	52.00	52.00	2.20	1.89	0.76
21/22	Fulham	46	90	106	43	63.00	63.00	1.96	2.30	0.93
20/21	Norwich City	46	97	75	39	36.00	36.00	2.11	1.63	0.85
19/20	Leeds United	46	93	77	35	42.00	42.00	2.02	1.67	0.76
18/19	Norwich City	46	94	93	57	36.00	36.00	2.04	2.02	1.24
17/18	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	99	82	39	43.00	43.00	2.15	1.78	0.85
16/17	Newcastle United	46	94	85	40	45.00	45.00	2.04	1.85	0.87
15/16	Burnley	46	93	72	35	37.00	37.00	2.02	1.57	0.76
14/15	Bournemouth	46	90	98	45	53.00	53.00	1.96	2.13	0.98
13/14	Leicester City	46	102	83	43	40.00	40.00	2.22	1.80	0.93
12/13	Cardiff City	46	87	72	45	27.00	27.00	1.89	1.57	0.98
11/12	Reading	46	89	69	41	28.00	28.00	1.93	1.50	0.89
10/11	Queens Park Rangers	46	88	71	32	39.00	39.00	1.91	1.54	0.70
09/10	Newcastle United	46	102	90	35	55.00	55.00	2.22	1.96	0.76
08/09	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	90	80	52	28.00	28.00	1.96	1.74	1.13
07/08	West Bromwich Albion	46	81	88	55	33.00	33.00	1.76	1.91	1.20
06/07	Sunderland	46	88	76	47	29.00	29.00	1.91	1.65	1.02
05/06	Reading	46	106	99	32	67.00	67.00	2.30	2.15	0.70
04/05	Sunderland	46	94	75	41	34.00	34.00	2.04	1.63	0.89
03/04	Norwich City	46	94	79	39	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.72	0.85
02/03	Portsmouth	46	98	97	45	52.00	52.00	2.13	2.11	0.98
01/02	Manchester City	46	99	108	52	56.00	56.00	2.15	2.35	1.13
00/01	Fulham	46	101	90	32	58.00	58.00	2.20	1.96	0.70
99/00	Charlton Athletic	46	91	79	45	34.00	34.00	1.98	1.72	0.98
98/99	Sunderland	46	105	91	28	63.00	63.00	2.28	1.98	0.61
97/98	Nottingham Forest	46	94	82	42	40.00	40.00	2.04	1.78	0.91
96/98	Bolton Wanderers	46	98	100	53	47.00	47.00	2.13	2.17	1.15
95/96	Sunderland	46	83	59	33	26.00	26.00	1.80	1.28	0.72
94/95	Middlesbrough	46	82	67	40	27.00	27.00	1.78	1.46	0.87
93/94	Crystal Palace	46	90	73	46	27.00	27.00	1.96	1.59	1.00

 

Any box in green, means they out performed how we are doing this season.  

 

I'll update it as the season goes on, if people are interested. 

 

 

That list reflects that clubs excelling at this level can't break the Premier League monopoly.    Except Oil Money City and Oil Money United.    Except us in 2016.  

[Lonsdalefox]

We are good but too much hubris here. Winks will get injured. And we have picked up two big(ish)injuries in the last three games to add Praet and Cannon. It will undoubtedly get tough at some point.

Edited 1 October 2023 by Lonsdalefox

[HarryDee8]

What was last year's championship table like last year after 9 games?

[z-layrex]

7 minutes ago, HarryDee8 said:

What was last year's championship table like last year after 9 games?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/spieltagtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2022&spieltag=9

[Poznan34]

35 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/spieltagtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2022&spieltag=9

Luton in 20th!

[Bourbon Fox]

22 minutes ago, Poznan34 said:

Luton in 20th!

You have to admire their consistency!

[shailen]

Great post. The scary thing is that the players are still adapting to the system and will only get better. We could potentially break all records this season and I'd love for us to beat Reading's points tally along the way. 

 

We got 102 in 13/14 which was incredible too. 

[BoyJones]

58 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/spieltagtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2022&spieltag=9

In 2013/14, Leicester had 20 points after nine games. 6 wins, two draws.
Came on strong after the back to back away defeats in December to go on a nine match winning run, started at Loftus Road with the 1-0 win (Vardy), after the Nugent squirrel incident. 

[Foxdiamond]

1 hour ago, Heathrow fox said:

I would normally urge caution.Not this season with this squad.I thought we may struggle with a manager who I believed was too clever for his own good.I presumed that Winks would be very much on the down hill,when infact he is still the normal Harry Winks and that’s all you need in this league.I thought Vardy was shot and that the likes of Ndidi would be long gone.

This squad walks this league by Valentine’s Day,If not then I think Easter is early next year?Biggest concern is boredom and keeping concentration levels high.Shouldn’t be a problem as all he has to do is shake things up a bit with the countless options he has at his disposal 

Delighted if you are proved correct

[Dan LCFC]

23 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

My issue is that we have required this insane level of form, and for that we just have a 4 point margin to 3rd, long season ahead still and we need to maintain the form, crazy stuff.

Ipswich and Preston's form has taken the gloss off of quite how well we're actually doing. It's distorted things. Preston being only 3rd with that points tally is remarkable.

[Sly]

31 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Ipswich and Preston's form has taken the gloss off of quite how well we're actually doing. It's distorted things. Preston being only 3rd with that points tally is remarkable.

Wednesday is a massive game. 
 

I’ll update the table again on Thursday at some point. 

[Tom12345]

“Currently we're averaging 2.67 points per game, which is incredible. If we keep that up we'd be on for 123 points! 

 

Incidentally, Ipswich   are averaging out at 112 points, Preston are on for 102.”

 

This proves that the data is too unreliable.

 

I don’t think anyone thinks Ipswich and Preston will finish with more than 100 points.  

 

It is not unusual for a team to go through a run but eventually many will suffer a poor run so this is why you can only compare after quite a distance has been run.

 

It just so happened that Ipswich and Preston are having theirs at the beginning. Same as us. Yes, we are more likely to be able to sustain a much longer run than others so it would be interesting to see.

 

Back to my point though, I think therefore it is more useful if you can keep up the data comparison by comparing against the first 10 games only and so on. If you compare against the full season, then you have not taken into account the poor runs that most teams inevitably suffer. If you don’t, the comparison is flawed as shown by the fact that all three teams this season are at the top of your table.

 

Edited 3 October 2023 by Tom12345

[LCFCJohn]

On 01/10/2023 at 21:17, Heathrow fox said:

I would normally urge caution.Not this season with this squad.I thought we may struggle with a manager who I believed was too clever for his own good.I presumed that Winks would be very much on the down hill,when infact he is still the normal Harry Winks and that’s all you need in this league.I thought Vardy was shot and that the likes of Ndidi would be long gone.

This squad walks this league by Valentine’s Day,If not then I think Easter is early next year?Biggest concern is boredom and keeping concentration levels high.Shouldn’t be a problem as all he has to do is shake things up a bit with the countless options he has at his disposal 

This squad walks this league by Valentine’s Day,
Mathematically impossible unless someone else can provide numbers to the contrary. So many games to play after February 14th, you can’t be officially promoted anywhere like that early. If Easter falls on the late side, you start to see particularly dominant sides just about starting to wrap up promotion at that point with two games quickly over the weekend.

 

Biggest concern is boredom and keeping concentration levels high

Disagree. Biggest concern is injuries. A couple of long term injuries in positions we don’t have as much depth could really stall us. Not to the point of throwing away promotion as we have the January window, but could be a leveller.

[The Quick Brown Fox]

On 01/10/2023 at 21:02, Chrysalis said:

My issue is that we have required this insane level of form, and for that we just have a 4 point margin to 3rd, long season ahead still and we need to maintain the form, crazy stuff.

You could argue that the form of others needs to stay a crazy level to stay within 4 points. 

We will have a dip in form and lose a few, but so will others. The promising thing, we only have to match others results now to stay ahead and we are not chasing. We will find out if the team have the mental strength to see it through each week. 

[KFS]

Get through to the next international break unbeaten and we’d have lost 1 game in the first quarter. Extrapolated over a full season is obviously 4 losses. That’s 100+ points easy - Burnley had 3.