Also In The News - part 3

[DennisNedry]

Can anybody explain to me how our GDP has been flatlining and looks set to continue, when our net migration is over half a million people a year? I just don't understand how both of these things can be true?

Not to mention how it can possibly be sustainable in terms of infrastructure, public services and our push for net zero goals.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, DennisNedry said:

Can anybody explain to me how our GDP has been flatlining and looks set to continue, when our net migration is over half a million people a year? I just don't understand how both of these things can be true?

Not to mention how it can possibly be sustainable in terms of infrastructure, public services and our push for net zero goals.

 

Half a million per year in net migration / UK population of 68m = annual increase of less than 1%. Also a large proportion of the increased migration is foreign students, who wouldn't generate much economic output.

In comparison, recent growth is described as "flatlining" but has typically been between 1.5% and 2% in recent years, so higher than net migration.....but lower than growth was in previous decades, so only "flatlining" comparatively.

 

There'd be different opinions as to why growth has slowed, some of them political: mature capitalist economy in an era of globalised competition, low productivity, failure to move into high-value-added business, low private/public investment, tendency of British stock market to demand high shareholder value/dividends and consequent under-investment in R&D.....many theories, many of them controversial. 

[Jon the Hat]

7 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

Like the Israeli government who put hundreds of Palestinian children in jail indefinitely without charge or trial every year?

 

https://www.savethechildren.org.uk/news/media-centre/press-releases/new-research-reveals-ongoing-violence-on-palestinian-children--

There is a little bit of a difference between arresting 16-17 year old teenagers for throwing rocks at soldiers and murdering people and abducting their children some as young as 4 years old, and completely innocent.

[Mickyblueeyes]

10 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

There is a little bit of a difference between arresting 16-17 year old teenagers for throwing rocks at soldiers and murdering people and abducting their children some as young as 4 years old, and completely innocent.

But not all were 16-17 years old when they "threw rocks" (more like pebbles) and were then imprisoned indefinately, without trial. Also those rock throwers, not all murderers, if any actually are. 

 

Kidnapping a 4 year old and abducting children - wrong. 

Kidnapping and imprisoning a 10 year old, without trial and any basic human rights (that decent people would naturally call for). Also wrong. 

 

There isnt and cannot be any justrification for either. Its disgraceful, both acts. 

[ClaphamFox]

The real story is buried towards the bottom of this article: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said the UK's economic outlook is the worst he's ever seen. Grim. I suspect some Tories are secretly relieved that that they're going to lose the next election as it will be Labour's mess to deal with...

 

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/bank-england-governor-warns-tough-28171508

[Sampson]

I know even Labour are burying their head in the sand about discussing the dreaded “b” word, but would’ve thought leaving the biggest market in the world and then sitting as a small island outside its borders might be playing more than a small role in our disastrous economic situation.

 

The sooner we admit we were wrong and go crawling back to the EU with our tail between our legs, the better. Its inevitable within a generation anyway, why wait another 20 years when even Farage, the biggest driver behind it, admits it was a massive failiure?

[bovril]

3 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I know even Labour are burying their head in the sand about discussing the dreaded “b” word, but would’ve thought leaving the biggest market in the world and then sitting as a small island outside its borders might be playing more than a small role in our disastrous economic situation.

 

The sooner we admit we were wrong and go crawling back to the EU with our tail between our legs, the better. Its inevitable within a generation anyway, why wait another 20 years when even Farage, the biggest driver behind it, admits it was a massive failiure?

Face-saving is a big part of English culture

[Jon the Hat]

8 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I know even Labour are burying their head in the sand about discussing the dreaded “b” word, but would’ve thought leaving the biggest market in the world and then sitting as a small island outside its borders might be playing more than a small role in our disastrous economic situation.

 

The sooner we admit we were wrong and go crawling back to the EU with our tail between our legs, the better. Its inevitable within a generation anyway, why wait another 20 years when even Farage, the biggest driver behind it, admits it was a massive failiure?

Its not going to happen, not for at least a generation, probably longer.  The terms the EU would offer will not be acceptable to the UK.  Even if the political will was there.

[bovril]

9 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Its not going to happen, not for at least a generation, probably longer.  The terms the EU would offer will not be acceptable to the UK.  Even if the political will was there.

Britain leaving the single market and customs union was absolutely unthinkable even just a few years before the referendum. Even after it's debatable whether a majority of voters wanted it, yet here we are. All because the Tories thought there was political capital to be made from it.

 

So when rejoin is enjoying large leads in the polls (something like +60 with young people), I don't think it's as unlikely as you think. And even the unacceptable terms you talk about might be better for British voters than staying outside. 

Edited 27 November 2023 by bovril

[ClaphamFox]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

Britain leaving the single market and customs union was absolutely unthinkable even just a few years before the referendum. Even after it's debatable whether a majority of voters wanted it, yet here we are. All because the Tories thought there was political capital to be made from it.

 

So when rejoin is enjoying large leads in the polls (something like +60 with young people), I don't think it's as unlikely as you think. And even the unacceptable terms you talk about might be better for British voters than staying outside. 

Eventually rejoining the single market and customs union is plausible, I think. But rejoining the EU itself would be a much harder sell, both to our own citizens and to the rest of the EU. I really can't see that happening any time soon, if ever.

[Sampson]

10 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Its not going to happen, not for at least a generation, probably longer.  The terms the EU would offer will not be acceptable to the UK.  Even if the political will was there.

I agree rejoining the EU isn’t realistic until at least the 2040s. I think UK becoming a Norway/Switzerland/Iceland style state which is part of the common market but outside the EU is perfectly realistic though. UK would get no say on laws or policy and the EU would get an economy as large as the UK in its sphere with no influence, I doubt the eu would realistically turn that down. 
 

The UK-EU deal is already up for renegotiation every 5 years (next in 2025), part of me thinks behind the scenes, it’s already kind of baked in for the uk to drift towards a Norway style state to the EU

[bovril]

4 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Eventually rejoining the single market and customs union is plausible, I think. But rejoining the EU itself would be a much harder sell, both to our own citizens and to the rest of the EU. I really can't see that happening any time soon, if ever.

I don't know if it'd be that hard to sell to the EU. Polls in most major European countries show good levels of support for the UK rejoining, and it would look great for the EU if voters in an economically stagnant UK overwhelmingly backed rejoining.

 

I agree that full membership probably isn't going to happen that quickly. But this idea that the status quo will hold for another decade or so still overestimates the strength of the UK and underestimates the strength of the EU, which is what has been happening for the last 7 years. 

Edited 27 November 2023 by bovril

[bovril]

8 minutes ago, bovril said:

I don't know if it'd be that hard to sell to the EU. Polls in most major European countries show good levels of support for the UK rejoining, and it would look great for the EU if voters in an economically stagnant UK overwhelmingly backed rejoining.

 

I agree that full membership probably isn't going to happen that quickly. But this idea that the status quo will hold for another decade or so still overestimates the strength of the UK and underestimates the strength of the EU, which is what has been happening for the last 7 years. 

On reflection I'm probably underestimating how much economic damage Brits are willing to take in order not to have to admit they were wrong

[bovril]

I think the EU debate in the UK ignores the non-economic arguments that are much more common in the rest of Europe. Young people want to be part of the European community and want to be able to travel round easily. Attitudes of under 30s in the UK increasingly remind me of people I meet in Eastern Europe who value the opportunities to be able to travel and work abroad that were denied their parents. 

[ClaphamFox]

19 minutes ago, bovril said:

I don't know if it'd be that hard to sell to the EU. Polls in most major European countries show good levels of support for the UK rejoining, and it would look great for the EU if voters in an economically stagnant UK overwhelmingly backed rejoining.

 

I agree that full membership probably isn't going to happen that quickly. But this idea that the status quo will hold for another decade or so still overestimates the strength of the UK and underestimates the strength of the EU, which is what has been happening for the last 7 years. 

We were a very awkward member of the club and that won't be forgotten any time soon. I can see many countries being very wary - and it would only take one veto.

 

I'm also not convinced that we'd vote to rejoin, irrespective of what current opinion polls say. As Jon the Hat says, the terms they'd offer us would be very easy for a 'no' campaign to argue (however deceitfully) that rejoining would mean sacrificing our sovereignty. This notion of sovereignty seems to be particularly potent in our country - the reason we left the EU in the first place was that many of our fellow citizens were persuaded that remaining in it massively restricted our independence as a country (although hardly anybody was able to explain how). I'm just not sure we've changed that much culturally despite our tanking economy and disintegrating services, etc.

 

Our best hope for rejoining the EU is a clear long-term generational attitude shift. That may happen one day, but in the medium term the single market/customs union may be the best outcome we can realistically hope for.

Edited 27 November 2023 by ClaphamFox

[bovril]

3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

We were a very awkward member of the club and that won't be forgotten any time soon. I can see many countries being very wary - and it would only take one veto.

 

I'm also not convinced that we'd vote to rejoin, irrespective of what current opinion polls say. As Jon the Hat says, the terms they'd offer us would be very easy for a 'no' campaign to argue (however deceitfully) that rejoining would mean sacrificing our sovereignty. This notion of sovereignty seems to be particularly potent in our country - the reason we left the EU in the first place was that many of our fellow citizens were persuaded that remaining in it massively restricted our independence as a country (although hardly anybody was able to explain how). I'm just not sure we've changed that much culturally despite our tanking economy and disintegrating services, etc.

 

Our best hope for rejoining the EU is a clear long-term generational attitude shift. That may happen one day, but in the medium term the single market/customs union may be the best outcome we can realistically hope for.

Probably. Personally I can't see hard Brexit lasting that much longer. Although there is still a lack of knowledge in the UK around things like the Single Market which will probably hinder the cause in the medium term.

[FoxesDeb]

14 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

There is a little bit of a difference between arresting 16-17 year old teenagers for throwing rocks at soldiers and murdering people and abducting their children some as young as 4 years old, and completely innocent.

If that was the comparison than I would agree. But we are not comparing arresting 16-17 year old teenagers for throwing rocks at soldiers to abducting children, some as young as 4 years old, are we? The Palestinian children, and that´s what they are at 16 and 17, who would ´only´ have been arrested previously are becoming statistics of deaths at the hands of the IDF. Some are actually as young as 10, and those who were previously ´lucky´ to only be arrested were subjected to abuse, torture, and violations against international law. This has been going on for decades, you´d have to do some incredible mental gymnastics wouldn´t you to not agree that this regime is also evil, which was the point originally made?

 

Unless you feel that children being shot at for throwing stones at tanks in occupied land is fair, I suppose.

[Trav Le Bleu]

When will people learn?

 

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

I'm looking at you Gaza/Israel.

 

And if I'm perfectly honest... The rest of the world

 

 

[westernpark]

2 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

When will people learn?

 

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

I'm looking at you Gaza/Israel.

 

And if I'm perfectly honest... The rest of the world

 

 

Well the extension to the truce by two days is a good start.

[st albans fox]

8 hours ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

But not all were 16-17 years old when they "threw rocks" (more like pebbles) and were then imprisoned indefinately, without trial. Also those rock throwers, not all murderers, if any actually are. 

 

Kidnapping a 4 year old and abducting children - wrong. 

Kidnapping and imprisoning a 10 year old, without trial and any basic human rights (that decent people would naturally call for). Also wrong. 

 

There isnt and cannot be any justrification for either. Its disgraceful, both acts. 

https://www.btselem.org/statistics/minors_in_custody
 

this is a good source of stats in the West Bank because it’s a group run by Israelis who are able to get better access to the data than Palestinians or other NGO’s 

 

fwiw, I would say the following 

arresting and holding U16’s is grim - but I’m not having rocks and stones thrown at me. (Pebbles ?) 

and it looks to be v unusual for any U14’s to be held (last I can see is 2 in July 2022 and they were not held a month later) 

[jgtuk]

18 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

https://www.btselem.org/statistics/minors_in_custody
 

this is a good source of stats in the West Bank because it’s a group run by Israelis who are able to get better access to the data than Palestinians or other NGO’s 

 

fwiw, I would say the following 

arresting and holding U16’s is grim - but I’m not having rocks and stones thrown at me. (Pebbles ?) 

and it looks to be v unusual for any U14’s to be held (last I can see is 2 in July 2022 and they were not held a month later) 

“The following figures were provided or published by the military and the IPS, so responsibility for their accuracy lies with them.”

[st albans fox]

13 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

“The following figures were provided or published by the military and the IPS, so responsibility for their accuracy lies with them.”

There is very little data provided by the IDF 

The numbers and details of those held is all from the prison service and as a democracy, under freedom of information, they have to give the number afaik. 

 

if you look at the website I think you’ll find it fits well with your view of the situation - I’m trying !

[jgtuk]

14 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

There is very little data provided by the IDF 

The numbers and details of those held is all from the prison service and as a democracy, under freedom of information, they have to give the number afaik. 

 

if you look at the website I think you’ll find it fits well with your view of the situation - I’m trying !

I’ve no problem with the website, the figures quoted are all they have to go on but are automatically flawed when they are given by the very same people who are committing the crimes being reported by human rights groups. 
The sheer numbers of children being detained is horrendous but when you see the abuse they’ve endured during their detention it’s mind blowing. 
 

“A 2013 report by the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef) concluded that maltreatment of Palestinian child detainees in Israeli military detention was “widespread, systematic, and institutionalised throughout the process” Research by Save the Children published in July found that Palestinian minors in Israeli detention endure physical, emotional and sexual abuse.

Some 86 percent said they had been beaten, 69 percent strip-searched and nearly half of them injured at the point of arrest, some of them incurring gunshot wounds and broken bones.

According to research by DCIP,based on testimonies from 766 children detained by the Israeli army between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2022, 59 percent were arrested at night, with 97 percent reporting having their hands bound, and 86 percent blindfolded.

Children reported being interrogated at unknown locations without the presence of a parent or a lawyer, and often deprived of food and water.

They often gave confessions while enduring verbal abuse, threats, physical and psychological violence.” 
 

We need to remember that these are oppressed children living under an illegal occupation and have never experienced anything else. 

[jgtuk]

I think it’s worth putting this article here too. 
 

During 2022, the Palestine Centre for Prisoner Studies, a Palestinian rights group, documented the arrest of more than 850 children by the Israeli occupation forces, including 45 under the age of 12. Among the detainees were several children who were wounded by soldiers’ bullets before their arrest, all of whom were subjected to deliberate medical neglect.

The centre explains that the majority of detained children were subjected to one or more forms of humiliation and physical and psychological torture, through a number of tools and systematic methods that violate international norms and conventions on children’s rights. 

These violations actually start from the moment of arrest, and continue during the investigation period and detention.

According to the centre, the Israeli occupation forces arrested more than 10 children during 2022 after they were shot and wounded, some of them seriously. The wounded boys were often "left to bleed" before they were taken for treatment.

The rights group added that they were subjected to inhumane investigations and interrogations inside hospitals, and some of them were transferred to interrogation centres after a short period of time, before they completed their recovery.

Remember, this is BEFORE 7th Oct…

[Mickyblueeyes]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

https://www.btselem.org/statistics/minors_in_custody
 

this is a good source of stats in the West Bank because it’s a group run by Israelis who are able to get better access to the data than Palestinians or other NGO’s 

 

fwiw, I would say the following 

arresting and holding U16’s is grim - but I’m not having rocks and stones thrown at me. (Pebbles ?) 

and it looks to be v unusual for any U14’s to be held (last I can see is 2 in July 2022 and they were not held a month later) 

Yeah, the last under 16 was just shot dead in the West Bank in front of his father. I don’t know, if someone chucks stones, I understand them being apprehended. Perhaps arrested. But you’re telling me jailed, without trial or contact with the outside world is fair play ? Not having that. 2 wrongs don’t make a right and just like the illegal settlers some of these arrests and more so subsequent treatment is very hard to explain. 

 

The part in bold gives my response to the source. Unfair ? Perhaps. But I’ll be honest, I trust very little from either side at this stage. Perhaps another trip to Jerusalem/East Jerusalem is needed for me.